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Post Reply - My fear when Mr. Trump takes the Oath of Office...


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Topic - My fear when Mr. Trump takes the Oath of Office...
Posted: November 22 2016 at 11:21am By CRS, DrPH
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

CRS,DrPH, why would someone go for a military-way when a non-military way gives better results for less investments ? 

Good question, but my answer is to look at Tibet and Crimea.  If a great power can invade with little prospect of resistance, I think they will.  

Even the US is guilty of this.  Under Reagan, we invaded Grenada in 1983, using the same pretext that Russia did in Crimea ("protecting nationals").  

China tends to be less militaristic, but they have had border clashes with the USSR, India and Viet Nam. 

The only real military target I can see for China is Taiwan, which they consider as a renegade province, not unlike the situation in Crimea.  Taiwan would put up a pretty stiff resistance, and I suspect that they may have a nuke or two stashed away, but it is possible. 

Russia launching an invasion into the Baltic would be pretty drastic, and I could see all sorts of miscalculations on both sides.  

FYI, I was never in favor of offering former Warsaw Pact countries membership in NATO, as I saw it provocative to Russia.  However, they are in, and countries like Poland contributed greatly to the US efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, which invoked Article V.   

Should be interesting!