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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Post Reply - POLL: How large will the current ebola outbreak be


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Topic - POLL: How large will the current ebola outbreak be
Posted: October 21 2018 at 10:35pm By EdwinSm,
The trouble is not to model how Ebola might spread, but the 'political' reaction in an area with so many armed rebel groups. The situation is too complex for me to make a meaningful guess, but this in itself indicates a bleaker outlook.

Given the location of the outbreak it could spread to other countries, and due to mobility (of health workers) one or two cased may occur in another WHO Health region, but these would be easier to contain so I don't think it likely to become a pandemic.


BTW. My crystal ball does not work well. Given the past record of the Congo handling Ebola, at first I thought this outbreak would be brought quick under control. But I will make a guess anyway for a regional scale outbreak.