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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Post Reply - POLL: How large will the current ebola outbreak be


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Topic - POLL: How large will the current ebola outbreak be
Posted: January 20 2019 at 11:18pm By Dutch Josh
I see someone voted the worst case scenario-+1.000.000 cases...

https://www.msf.org/ebola-patient-care-increases-amid-growing-tensions-north-kivu-drc

Is this scenario possible ? I can think of several scenario's

-spread by aidworkers, "crisis-hopping" care givers moving from one region to the other, transporting the ebola-virus to places like Somalia, Yemen, Bangla Desh. There are an increasing number of "good feeding grounds" for the Ebola-virus. The incubation period can be 2 to 21 days, if the virus could show up later the virus could start spreading later. https://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/faq-ebola/en/

-climate change related, flooding bringing dead ebola-victums into the Nile riversystem, transporting ebola via (drinking) water to (South)Sudan and Egypt.

-refugees as way of transport. People trying to escape the war but also famine, economic collapse in the region can spread the virus.

-terrorism related, terrorists using ebola victums as a bio-weapon.

-medical overstretch-to put it simply the problem getting to big for the people available to handle it.

-spread by other species. When birds would start spreading the virus (maybe via infected fleas or so) it may be very hard to control. (So far spread via other mammals has been seen-it is very unlikely ebola can spread via fleas, birds, mosquitos https://www.combatbugs.com/en/home/pest-identification/bug-files/is-ebola-spread-by-bugs.html

Just like climate change health issues should be an international top-priority and is not. The international community is not doing enough to get the situation under control. So in my opinion ebola is winning-humanity is losing.