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No end to meltingseason in the Arctic ?

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: No end to meltingseason in the Arctic ?
    Posted: August 31 2016 at 11:26pm
Up till recent years the meltingseason for sea-ice in the Arctic ended when the sun started to give less energy due to the global-axis-the polar night. Usually around september/october sea-ice would start growing turning the Arctic from "fridge into a deepfreezer".

With the global temperature-rise the sources of warmth for the Arctic more and more also involved both sea and air-temperatures. Both effect the Arctic more and more all year round. Both the gulstream brings warm ocean water from the North American east coast towards the Arctic. Also via the Beringstrait between Siberia and Alaska warm waters move north as cold waters are pushed south. 

Storms moving from the tropics this year have a tendency to move to the far north (from West Africa westward to the Carabian and then north-eastward towards Greenland and Siberian coast). 

Another factor is warm riverwater from Canada, Alaske, Siberia moving into the Arctic ocean. 

You have something called a "fire-triangle"; to start a fire you need three ingredients: fuel, oxygen and ignition-temperature. For ice to form there is something similar; you need materials that can freeze, cold enough temperatures and a third factor is some form of stability. A waterfall can get frozen but it will get frozen by -20 C ? A sea can get frozen-eventhough there are waves also by temperatures below -10 C (?).

Salt water starts freezing at -2C. We will reach those temperatures this winter in the Arctic (and proberbly a lot colder most of the times) but the stability of water is the other factor. Both storms and methane-bubbles-release (on a growing scale) breaks up any ice-formation. Those storms (and gulfstreams) will continu to push warmth into the Arctic-proberbly also this winter. 

In your household it is good to know the difference between a refrigerator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refrigerator and a (deep)freezer. Even without a "blue ocean event" (less than a million km2 of seaice in the Arctic) we already face a very big global climate problem due to the failing freezer. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 31 2016 at 11:56pm
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=yale+climate+change+connections+greenland&&view=detail&mid=FC883117567A24712F9EFC883117567A24712F9E&FORM=VRDGAR

Another aspect in the longer melting season is the presence of water inside the Greenland (3kilometer deep) ice-sheet. The cold outside may not reach warmer water inside (and under) the Greenland ice-sheet. The melting of landice (in the video Jason Box) is expected to double every 5 to 12 years bringing up to (at least) 1 meter of sealevelrise from Greenland alone by 2100. 

Now less ice -pressure on Greenland means that the landmass is moving upward. If there was no ice on Greenland the upward movement would be 1 kilometer. Every movement of the land under the ice is pushing the landice away from Greenland into the ocean. 

Molten water that freezes is also expanding. (Minimun volume of water is at about 0 degrees C, if it gets colder or warmer it expands). Inside the landice that water will break up the ice. 

Since seawater and warm air is destroying also any seaice slowing down glaciers (and landice) Greenlands loss of ice will increase. (Being also another element of instability to the Arctic oceon-ice dropping into the surrounding water.)
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2016 at 3:03am
What happens in the Arctic effects Antarctica and the other way round in a sort of Polar Ping-Pong. Increased winds blows away snow, erodes (sea and land) ice in both regions. 

Warmer sea and air means sea-ice surrounding the Antarctic continent is melting-so more room for glaciers and land-ice moving into the sea. 

With less pressure on the Antarctic continent also this landmass is moving upward-with more pressure towards the sea for the landice and a larger exposure to the wind. 

The maximum sealevelrise from ice-melt believed possible is about 70 metres with 1% coming from mountains, including the "third pole" Himalaya. Another 9% is from Greenland-landice. If this is believed to be giving up to 1 metre sea-level-rise the 90% from Antarctica then could mean 10 metres of sealevelrise by 2100 ? 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2016 at 6:37pm
Thanks for posting, Dutch Josh! 

I've been watching the evolution of the Arctic sea ice extent for years, I've never seen the ice cap look this sick before!! 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2016 at 11:41pm
CRS, DrPH, the ice-cover in the Arctic was lower in 2012, but the quality of ice this year is very bad. And the meltingseason may be far from over.  https://robertscribbler.com/2016/09/01/endless-hot-summer-of-2016-heavy-arctic-sea-ice-losses-record-temps-for-alaska-and-hermines-rains-barreling-in/.

Another remark; I am not a scientist I admit that translating a 1 meter sealevelrise from Greenland by 2100 into a global sealevelrise of 10 meters by 2100 due to the same processes in Antarctica is speculation. 

Given the expected temperaturerise (Sam Carana comes with 10.1 C rise by 2026) you need to see a 10 meter sealevelrise by 2100 as very optimistic. (Even the IPCC is now telling sealevelrise by 2100 could be more than 1 meter. )

Loss of landice and the resulting uplifting of the underlying landmass will create earthquakes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_Ridge. The tsunamies of those quakes further contribute to melt in the (Ant)Arctic. 

Several large quakes are overdue (Tokyo, Turkey, Cascadia-not even starting about Yellowstone and other (super) volcano activity). 

What is needed is a sharp decrease in CO2 production and ways to reduce CO, CO@, Methane etc in the atmosphere (or limit the effects of them). Methane can be used as a fuel, the resulting proces can be less harmfull than methane itself. 

A science-fiction idea could be to build some sort of shield around the hole Earth and a climate-control system for the planet. "Geo-engineering " is something we are allready doing by changing the climate in the first place. 

I refuse to believe that there is no hope for next generations eventhough the challange is enormous.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2016 at 3:48am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3GYiery4uk&feature=youtu.be


A Winter of West Antarctic Heat — Larger South Pole Warm-up on the Way?

More broadly, warming this region to above freezing for extended periods is a concern among glaciologists. In the past (during the Pliocene and Miocene), when atmospheric CO2 levels have hit a range of 390-405 parts per million or above, West Antarctica (and ultimately East Antarctica) experienced warmth which resulted in seas that were many feet and meters higher than today. With atmospheric CO2 readings likely to average near 405 ppm during 2016 (or total greenhouse gas levels in the range of 490 ppm CO2e), it appears that frequent periods of summer-like temperatures and related increasing melt pressure are now possible during polar winter.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2016 at 8:39am
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

I refuse to believe that there is no hope for next generations eventhough the challange is enormous.


You've got more faith in humanity than me, Josh. I think we're just too damned arrogant as a species to see the writing on the wall. Once we reach the tipping point (if we're not there already) and methane and water vapor take over from CO2, I don't see what we can possibly do to fix the mess we'll be in. Runaway positive feedback systems like permafrost melt/methane release will be more than we can handle by the time we get our collective heads out of the sand.
I think that educating our children to be ready to adapt to the new world we're creating for them is their best hope. They might be able to fix what we broke given enough time, but only if they survive. I honestly believe we'll see an unprecedented decline in human populations as we lose growing areas and clean water in the decades to come.


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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2016 at 12:56pm
jacksdad, I do not disagree with your point of view. http://therealmayanprophecies.com/humans-almost-wiped-out-70000-years-ago/#.V8shVk2LTnA

You have heard of the "Toba super-eruption"some 76.000 years ago wich reduced human population to maybe somewere between 3000 to 10.000 on this planet. (Also other species did have a "genetic bottleneck" during that time.) Proberbly most "collective heads in the sand" will not survive the runaway positive (known and unknown, I think radioactivity is a big problem) feedbacks that escalate the climate change. 

http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2016/09/action-must-be-taken-now.html We all need education on the new world that is on its way. (And maybe the discussion wether "we" as humans caused this change is irrelevant. When the Titanic sinks discussion is on survival not on who was behind the weel.) We all can make changes wich can contribute.

When you look at history life expectency around 1900 in Europe was 40 years. Man died a little younger, woman got a little older in average. This lifetime-period has more than doubled in a century !

A government partly has to act that they are "in control" , one should not over-estimate the ability to plan or stir the future. People did start smoking but they also stopped smoking giving them a better quality of life. 

When people realize that their " ecological footprint"  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_footprint is produced by their actions and there is not much point in blaming politics or companies if they-as humans, consumers, financing-if they themselves do not make other decisions we can have a future. 

What did get us into the problem is very complex and took us a few hundred years. We will not be out of the problems without complexity and a long time needed. But some steps are very simple, less driving a car, use a bike. Eat less meat. Have less children. Those decisions are not made by governments but by the people themselves and those decisions can make a lot of difference !

The challange is enormous. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/science/flooding-of-coast-caused-by-global-warming-has-already-begun.html?smid=tw-nytimesscience&smtyp=cur&_r=0 But looking at human history we did find our way through ice-ages and wars, famine and disaster-we are here still ! 

Some music, to be seen in a different perspective https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTqMs58mMwU This land is mine !


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2016 at 3:01pm
I have always thought  a pandemic is the only thing that will save this planet and the other creatures

that inhabit it ,

from us the "arrogant" ones......

350,000 elephants left......out of 20 million.......IMMORAL...............


12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2016 at 5:05pm
I absolutely agree with you, Josh. It's just that humans as a species tend to have problems comprehending the big picture when politics, religion, nationalism, and especially profit are thrown into the mix.  That's the biggest problem for me when it comes to believing that we'll make any kind of significant change before it's too late - I suspect we'll still be fighting over whether there is even a problem as we march headlong off the cliff we should have seen from miles away.

Changing the composition of our atmosphere after we've done so much damage would be a monumental task even if we all pulled together, but you have powerful people and entities that stand to lose too much and will continue to fund the stream of misinformation and slow any progress we might make for purely selfish reasons. In much the same way that the tobacco industry continued to dispute the link between smoking and cancer to protect their bottom line, companies like ExxonMobil have funded climate denial for decades while internal emails dating back to the eighties showed they were aware of climate change long before it became a public issue. When there are billions to be made, morals unfortunately fall by the wayside.

Money will always be the biggest stumbling block to the kind of changes we're talking about - unless of course, we can make carbon sequestration more profitable than releasing it.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2016 at 11:07pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40OefUGvOb8 Dutchsinse is talking sense in earthquakes, several people are talking sense in climate. Main stream media are producing lies. It could be our "job" to try to talk sense. 

Using politics or religion as an excuse for stop thinking is a choice. We as individuals have a role to play, can make a difference. "Leaders" often follow the pioneers.

Why bring up Dutchsinse ? 1. He is a pioneer just like several climate scientists telling a story that "those in power" do not like to hear. (With censorship, stop of funding etc. as consequences.) 2. The 5.6 earthquake in the fracking area of Oklahoma is the result of a superfracture due to fracking (just like climatechange "tipping points "were ignored). The latest queke will cause more quakes and leakage of gas out of the ground wich further contributes to climatechange and a longer meltingseason.

Production of fossil fuels is a problem in itself contributing to climatechange. From uranium to gas and oil it is destroying nature and producing emissions global greenhouse gas. Consumption of fossil fuels is not the only problem.

According to Dutchsinse quakes in America move from west to east. The M4 Montana quake however came after the M5.6 first in California then in Oklahoma. The Montana quake is related to underground nuclear waste storage. 

Nuclear waste and energy is another factor in global warming. From Fukushima to waste-dumps on pacific islands and the old Greenland base (not to mention what Russia, the UK France, North Korea, China even Germany in the Congo have to hide) is getting back in the atmosphere by wildfires (Chernobyl a.o.). Pacific islands getting below rising sealevel (and the bunkers wich contain nuclear waste were not build to be under water) Greenland landice melting (so nuclear waste under that ice "for thousends of years" coming to the surface just after 50 years). 

Can (some) humans survive climate change on artificial floating very large ships wich have their own climate system, produce food and water ? We proberbly have to deal with serious temperature rise and several meters of sealevelrise. This will effect all life on earth. 

A point of discussion could be were it will end and in what time ? Will we have a Venus-like planet by 2080 ? Or have a planet with maybe on average a limited (<10 C) temperature-rise and still quite a lot of land that can produce food and water by 2100 ? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-03/half-forms-life-earth-will-be-gone-2050-biologist-warns-climate-instability

Could a "friendly" policy, one-child per family, short term ban on use of fossil fuels be enough to deal with the "situation". Or do we have to face mass-migration, millions of people drawning in seas and oceans trying to escape their desert-countries, wars-no longer for oil but water and land. 

Climate change proberbly may mean more pandemics. Abrupt climate change may go that fast that pandemics hardly have time to develop. I think that the time to act is now, the longer "we" wait the bigger the problem gets. 

Do more with less energy, consume less, use an (old) bike for transport (in urban areas), less meat and less children (to give the children that are born a better possible future). Of course wealth needs to be redistributed (by taxation, healthcare, education, housing, job-certainty could be something a state can provide. Besides that states will have to deal with the costs of climate change. There is no way the present tax-systems can provide enough money for those costs.). 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2016 at 10:44am
No one talks about too much population in the world China & India are the worst! Until you can get population under control we are doomed guys, just a fact. More people more wood needed less raine Forrest for homes, more people more food and fresh water needed, as countries advance every one wants a two car or more cars family. More of every thing because of the population. Man is the bad guy mostly because of population!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2016 at 12:31pm
Exactly right, FluMom. It's the elephant in the room that nobody ever wants to talk about. I hear people talk about all the empty space being an indication that the planet can support more humans, but it's not space that's the issue. As you rightly mention, it's the resources necessary to support seven billion and counting.

One thing we do know from our knowledge of wild populations is that they tend to be self limiting. We're just animals when all's said and done, and prey to the same things that control other species - food and clean water being the principal limiters. We're able to force the land to produce food at an astounding rate, and yet a quarter of the world's population still goes hungry. Clean water is already becoming the source of political unrest as it becomes scarcer, and water wars are almost inevitable in the coming decades.

What happens at nine billion? Or fifteen billion? Scary times ahead.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2016 at 12:07pm
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/05/soaring-ocean-temperature-is-greatest-hidden-challenge-of-our-generation?CMP=share_btn_tw


Researchers say they have discovered a large reservoir of melt water that sits under the Greenland ice sheet all year round.

The scientists say the water is stored in the air space between particles of ice, similar to the way that fruit juice stays liquid in a slush drink.

The aquifer, which covers an area the size of Ireland, could yield important clues to sea level rise.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160802103924.htm

Warm ocean water of open ocean origin is continuously flowing into the cavities below the ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellinghausen Sea, west of the Antarctic peninsula, thus melting them from below. New observations recently published in Nature Communications show that warm deep water also reaches the large Filchner ice shelf in the southern Weddell Sea. This ice shelf is located in a “cold” part of Antarctica, where the water on the wide continental shelf separating the ice shelf from the deep ocean mostly is at or below the surface freezing point of -1.9C and melt rates below the ice shelf is accordingly low.



Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2016 at 10:33pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2016 at 10:57pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2016 at 9:37pm
http://xkcd.com/1732/ a timeline from 20.000 years B.C. up till now

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/cat-5-super-typhoon-meranti-heads-towards-taiwan/ and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQwx_f_Xfxo storms pushing warm air and water towards the poles. BPEarthWatch is doing a good job for the US; is there a new Katrina on its way ? 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/20160912/ NASA: 2016 on its way to become the hottest year in a row.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2016 at 4:33am
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 06 2016 at 12:19am
https://paulbeckwith.net/2016/11/06/arctic-sea-ice-regrowth-is-effd-this-year-parts-1-and-2/

A good presentation of developments with also some mention of the dramatic ice-situation (record low for sea-ice) in Ant-Arctica. The polar regions are warming up much faster than average, surface seawater being mixed with warmer deeper waterlayers means sea-ice will not be formed. Stronger winds breaks up the ice that is being formed. 

The presentation does not mention the consequences for land-ice on Greenland and Antarctica. Sea-ice is keeping landice in its position. Less sea-ice means landice will slide into the oceans and raise sealevel. (Also more wind means more erosion of the ice). 

Methane and CO2 levels keep rising-so temperatures will keep rising. 

If "we" as humans fail to take proper action our days will be very limited. Paul Beckwith mentions "wierding of the weather" (more floods, droughts, storms etc) effecting food production. But drinking water will become problematic as well. Rivers are the main source of drinking water and sealevel-rise will mean salt water coming upstreams inland. 

Another problem will be energy-production with powerplants being effected by flooding/droughts, energy-transportation by storms. 

Climatechange is escalating fast and effects are going exponential. Wich means doubling of sealevelrise, temperatures etc within certain timeframes. For exemple, year 1 could see 1cm sealevelrise, 1 degree temperature rise (wether C or F does not matter for the exemple of exponential growth). year 2 has 2cm sealevelrise, 2 degrees+, year 3 would have 4 cm ise, 4 degrees, year 4 8cm rise, 8 degrees up. 

cummulitative-add together-in a short 5 years (1+2+4+8+16=31) would bring 31 cm waterrise, 31 degrees up. Just to show how fast things can go in an exponential mode. (And as an exemple). 

Not all scientists agree on these kind of models but the very drastic effects of possible worse case scenarios should be a reason to take action-less fossil fuels, better use of energy, more monitoring. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 07 2016 at 12:46am
After the driest summer/autumn we have seen for a long time, the local lake has frozen months earlier than usual.  I wonder if these unusual patterns are related to climate change bringing more extremes while at the same time the average temperature is rising.


(ps. I am in one of the Nordic countries)
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