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North Korea must be stopped

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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2017 at 7:03am
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

Another aspect, NK is not the only small country with nuclear weapons. They took that idea from Israel. 

It has been suggested that North Korea has sought to model its nuclear weapons programme on Israel's, as "a small-state deterrent for a country surrounded by powerful enemies; to display enough activity to make possession of a nuclear device plausible to the outside world, but with no announcement of possession: in short, to appear to arm itself with an ultimate trump card and keep everyone guessing whether and when the weapons might become available."[10]

Thanks, DJ, I was just thinking of that myself!!  

NK won't negotiate its nukes away, I wouldn't.   We should try to engage them at a high level (including Kim's generals, who can't be sleeping well at night), and see if we can urge them towards change. 

It worked with Burma (Myanmar), who were similarly militaristic and closed as a society.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2017 at 8:35am
Pakistan has nukes.  It is a fairly backward country and heavily Islamic - which slows down progress.  But it is progressing toward a higher level of civilization.

India has nukes.  It has lots of problems and it is always conflicted with Pakistan.  However, it does not threaten anyone else and is slowly growing in civilization.

Israel has nukes.  It treats the Palestinians horribly - though probably with good reason.  It only protects itself.  It may behave badly towards the Palestinians but still its nukes are defensive not offensive.  It believes in tolerance - you can have a church and a mosque in Israel - even if it regularly fails to achieve it.

France has nukes.

Britain has nukes.

Russia has nukes and has refrained from using them even during the Cuban missile crisis.


South Africa has had nukes.

China has nukes.

America has nukes.  It has used them in anger - the only one who has.

But none of the above seriously threaten their neighbors.  Skirmishes about Ukraine and tussles in the middle east stand no logical chance of escalating into nuclear conflict.

I can't say that about North Korea.  NK is one of the most repressive regimes on the planet.  It strives for nuclear weapons whilst its people starve.  It threatens others openly.  Its totalitarian leader does this to stay in power, BECAUSE THAT POWER IS ALL THEY CARE ABOUT.

If Iran developed such weapons tomorrow, or one of the 'stans or anyone else except possibly Zimbabwe, I would feel less threatened than by NK.

KJU has no moral concerns about people, the very definition of a psychopath.  This state is different, Absolutely Different!  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2017 at 4:03pm
We need to learn from history! All of Europe tried to appease Hitler and that did not work. This kid is just a crazy as Hitler and you all think we can appease him, let him have his nukes and he will be a good boy. With 1.5 billion people in China to back him up are you guys crazy as that kid.

China and Russia are not innocents in this picture. They would love for the crazy fat kid to strike us to see where we are weak.

Better get ready for a ride if this kid has to save face and set off 4 rockets, nukes or not he will test to see if we can knock them out of the air. He has to do something to save face because he said he would send the rockets. Just the mind of an Asian.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2017 at 4:06pm
any pre-emptive strike would bring China into it,

China has said ,"if DPRK strikes fist they would remain neutral"

which means if the USA attacks first they will side with DPRK


thats how i read that statement

so NOTHING WILL HAPPEN

ALL SMOKE AND MIRRORS..............

WAKE UP !!!!!

12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2017 at 4:10pm
And you trust what China says...lol! That is like trusting Hitler. Hitler quote,"If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2017 at 4:40pm
China apparently just told NK that If they attack America they are on their own; not that they would actually do anything.  Assuming America attacks NK, then this would also anger China.  Not that they would do anything then either.

China would prefer it if everyone in the region got on better, as that stability is good for China's interests.  But, doing anything other than argue is just not in their nature.  "Its the economy stupid!" is their mantra.  Human rights, international relations and political fairness all take a back seat to business.

So, to save face, they would scream and shout, but actually do nothing - too expensive.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2017 at 11:01pm
If diplomacy has to play a role in international affairs trust is the basis. 

http://www.reformed-theology.org/html/books/wall_street/chapter_07.htm and many other sources make clear that "the west" financed hitler. Obviously the goal was that Germany-after being responsible for puting Lenin in Russia to end the two-front-war in 1917-had to deal with the Soviet Union. Those who financed the nazi's did loose a lot of investments in Russia in 1917. 

Indirectly hitler came to power by support from European royals, (including the Dutch and UK royal families), German and US industrials, Ford, Krupp, also the Bush-family.

Kim Jung Un is a terrible dictator but the outcome of a historic proces. When NK has to give up its nuclear weapons the US has to bring down its military in South Korea. 

There are stories that Israel already had a nuclear bomb in 1967-6 day war. In 1973-Yom Kipour-the Soviet Union unloaded nuclear weapons in Alexandria-Egypt. Israeli forces were 80 kilometres from Cairo, 30 kilometres from Damascus. Israeli nuclear weapons  were one of the reasons for the Camp David peace talks. 

North Korea only gets more dangerous by isolation. China and Russia-neighbours-know that some contacts have to remain. 

You do not become an international leader by being insane, still clever people can do stupid things (Bay of Pigs, USS Liberty, Gulf of Tonkin). Kim Jung Un and Trump are responsible for their (in)action. 

The number of military that believe in a military way to deal with NK must be very limited. The US has to get realistic-it is not longer the only superpower that can tell other countries what to do. When the US has a problem with that then maybe the US is much more a problem than NK is.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2017 at 11:37pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2017 at 6:30am
[QUOTE=carbon20]and guess where it all leads.......

"The Great Southern land"....AUSTRALIA........and all our Empty Space and Mineral wealth

a very nice Juicy Plum.......

all ripe for the Plucking..............

they Buying up big Cattle stations very remote locations AS I WRITE ,

easy to fly planes in undetected,they could have 50,000 troops in before any one wakes up
]QUOTE]

I agree with you. Yet I am sure we (The U.S.) would launch if they attacked Australia. An unfortunately, now with the statement of support for the U.S. in this they are  a prime target.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2017 at 6:46am
This is not all bluff and rhetoric.  There is not some secret peace process going on the shadows that has been productive or is promising. While a line may be open, Kim Jong-un has gone past asking for food or lifting sanctions. He wants recognition and acceptance of North Korea -
Democratic People's Republic of Korea (D.P.R.K. or North Korea)
conventional short form: North Korea
local long form: 조선민주주의인민공화국
as a world nuclear power that be allowed to continue to develop a nuclear arsenal that is a threat to America and its allies.
The last thing the social-justice-warriors want to see is Trump as a tough commander-in-chief of the U.S. military and using methods not in the playbook of any president in history against the D.P.R.K.
Everyday, not only does the war of words escalate, but the chances of a nuclear war.  We have many taking the stance "this too shall pass" but they do not realize how the leaders are being pushed off a cliff by the sheer momentum of current events.
People need to be prepared.  And on AFT (AvianFluTalk - http:avianflutalk.com) we have been saying this for years. From Pandemic to Avian Flu to 2009 - today we are in the greatest risk America has been in since World War II.

Medclinician - "not if but when" - CWN



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2017 at 6:59am
https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201708111056391183-is-north-korea-showing-emperor-is-naked/

-Trump needs a "good crisis" to become "presidential" in the US.

-NK needs to claim nuclear weapons to avoid the "Libya, Syria, Iraq scenario".

-China and Russia gain by this crisis, South Korea and Germany do not want to pay a high price for a US crisis !
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2017 at 8:14am
All three points you make are valid, correct and to the point, Dutch Josh.  But, the same as "Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean they are not out to get you", that does not limit the risk from NK much.

I am hoping Trump will stand up to KJU, not because it is right (which I believe it to be) nor because it is politically necessary (which I also believe) but because he wants to be proven the bigger power.  Doing it for the wrong reasons does not stop it being the right thing to do.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2017 at 12:28pm
Technophobe, KJU is a cruel dictator, NK has concentrationcamps, human rights are not respected, people are starving there from time to time. I would not want to live there-I was lucky not to be born there....

The world is full of dictators. If replacing them would bring something better great ! But IS, Taliban, Red Kmehr, (to go back in time, one could even include hitler in that list-just like al bagdhadi-IS leader, a puppet working for an elite) is worse. 

Replacing KJU by chaos means China moving in. 

What do you want Trump to do ? Cruisemissiles on (14 !!!) nuclear installations in NK does not sound good. Those missiles on "lines of communications" railwaybridges, radar etc ? 

Russia and China most likely will shoot missiles out of the sky-when they can. 
-1 To show they can (like Russia showed in Syria)
-2 To de-escalate, trying to stop NK from doing something they might regret
-3 To try to control the US from unwise actions

And then what ? 

The Chinese alternative sounds better. Negotiations till you drop. In my opinion a re-united Korea, neutral, would be welcome to bring stability to the East Asia-region.  With its 76 million people living there it would be on the crossroads of Russia, China, Japan-and thereby the US. 

Russia and China will not accept a pro-US regime change in NK. When the US is willing to take some steps back, de-escalate-talks are possible. 

Both Trump and KJU may need this crisis to show "leadership". China is playing a double game-selling military hardware to NK, allowing transport of weaponsales (to a.o. Iran) of NK via China. China still-most likely is buying coal from NK.  But it is not in China's interest to go for regimechange in NK-it is the US that wants that. 

At the end it is not about NK but the US against Russia-Iran-China. Do not expect them to work with the US. 


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2017 at 1:09pm
I think I actually do.  Not that I want to see such death and horror, but I believe it is coming, whether or not Trump does anything aggressive and the sooner it comes the less dreadful it will be.

There is a slim chance (very, very slim indeed) that a political/diplomatic solution can be found; something on the lines of Chuck's strategy, but unless China knows that the American gunboat diplomacy really has said boats behind it - and therefore backs the American/winning side, that is profoundly unlikely.  Just because we want to avoid war, does not mean we can.  Sadly, the world is only that nice in our dreams.  Pretending it can be otherwise may postpone the crisis, but it will deepen it too.  KJU is going to continue amassing weapons for so long as he can.  China can stop him but will not do so in the current political climate.  We in the west therefore have two choices, neither of them good.

Choice one: play ostrich and have a few more good years before KJU thinks he has enough power to take South Korea and Guam.  This will be catastrophic!

Choice two:  show we mean business strongly enough that either China or his own generals stop KJU.  China will not stop NK until it is the best option for their business strategy.  We need to be the authors of this change in political climate ........................ and it has to be a massive one.  'And if we fail, then at least the war will be less destructive than the one outlined in the first option would have been.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2017 at 8:13am
https://southfront.org/nyt-shocking-report-us-ally-ukraine-source-north-korean-missile-engines/

When the US State Department supported Ukraine domestic forces and nationalist elements to stage a successful and deadly coup against then pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, the outcome was supposed to be a nation that is a undisputed US ally and persistent threat, distraction and non-NATO opponent to bordering Russia. Instead, it now appears that it has been Ukraine which was, as the NYT writes, the secret behind the success of North Korea’s ballistic missile program.

Specifically, in a blockbuster report this morning, the NYT alleges that North Korea has been making black-market purchases of powerful rocket engines from a Ukrainian factory citing “expert analysis being published Monday and classified assessments by American intelligence agencies.”

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2017 at 6:58pm
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

I think I actually do.  Not that I want to see such death and horror, but I believe it is coming, whether or not Trump does anything aggressive and the sooner it comes the less dreadful it will be.

There is a slim chance (very, very slim indeed) that a political/diplomatic solution can be found; something on the lines of Chuck's strategy, but unless China knows that the American gunboat diplomacy really has said boats behind it - and therefore backs the American/winning side, that is profoundly unlikely.  Just because we want to avoid war, does not mean we can.  Sadly, the world is only that nice in our dreams.  Pretending it can be otherwise may postpone the crisis, but it will deepen it too.  KJU is going to continue amassing weapons for so long as he can.  China can stop him but will not do so in the current political climate.  We in the west therefore have two choices, neither of them good.

Choice one: play ostrich and have a few more good years before KJU thinks he has enough power to take South Korea and Guam.  This will be catastrophic!

Choice two:  show we mean business strongly enough that either China or his own generals stop KJU.  China will not stop NK until it is the best option for their business strategy.  We need to be the authors of this change in political climate ........................ and it has to be a massive one.  'And if we fail, then at least the war will be less destructive than the one outlined in the first option would have been.


I have a lot of respect for many of the posters here and have for years yet we are nearing a final countdown.  Kim Jong-un was briefed in preparation for a strike on Guam, he has gone into hiding and it is set for tomorrow - a celebration of freedom from Japan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Liberation_Day_of_Korea

We are getting mixed reports as to whether they can hit the target but frankly - it doesn't matter. They don't have to hit the target. It is very simple. If they launch a missile tomorrow there will be a nuclear war.

China has said they will not interfere if we are attacked, but what if the missile doesn't make it and China says well - you weren't hurt and launches.

Once again I will tell you, I grew up with this mess in college working a Lockheed and I know how bad it was back then. It is much worse. Now there are 24 missiles with 10 warheads. That is 240 bombs. We are in a situation like when the terrorist use to put up people in front - prisoners or stored their munitions in schools and mosques. There is going to be collateral damage but the U.S. has no choice. They will not pause and worry about Seoul. It is called massive retaliation and has kept us out of a nuclear war for 70 years. All the cold war presidents were ready including JFK and I don't think any civilian has a real idea of how bad it will be.

They will toast the entire peninsula. The fallout will move to China and Russia. The fallout will come to America and especially Australia as well Asia.

Sadly neither sanctions nor diplomacy is going to work. The only thing that will happen is there will be a greater risk of several missiles reaching me in California. Not happy about that. We are in range here. People will literally freak out and it will be bad.

Honor is important to oriental people. Not following through on a threat would pave the way for a regime change in North Korea.

How can they celebrate tomorrow without attacking America? 

We are nearing a solar eclipse in the U.S. Perhaps many don't think that matters but it is not a good omen.

Let's hope nothing happens.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2017 at 7:09am
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/08/north-korea-and-the-remake-of-reagans-star-wars.html#

Since Trump issued "fire and fury" threats against North Korea (the DPRK), sanity has taken over among serious people. The talk of preventive strikes on North Korea within the expert community has largely ended. It was never a seriously possibility. North Korea has many options to retaliate to any strike and all would come with catastrophic damage to South Korea and Japan and thereby to U.S. interests in Asia.

North Korea can be successfully deterred in the same way that all other nuclear weapon states are deterred from using their weapons.



General conclusions—for now. Our general conclusions from intensive study of a wide variety of data relating to the two rockets that North Korea launched in July:

  • The Hwasong-14 does not currently constitute a nuclear threat to the lower 48 states of the United States.
  • The flight tests on July 4 and 28 were a carefully choreographed deception by North Korea to create a false impression that the Hwasong-14 is a near-ICBM that poses a nuclear threat to the continental US.
  • The Hwasong-14 tested on July 4 and 28 may not even be able to deliver a North Korean atomic bomb to Anchorage, Alaska.
  • Although it is clear that North Korea is not capable of manufacturing sophisticated rocket components, their skill and ingenuity in using Soviet rocket motor components has grown very substantially. This is not good news for the long run.

It is time for the United States to get serious about diplomacy and appropriate defensive preparations (see sidebar, “Comments on the developing situation with North Korea”) to constructively support those diplomatic efforts.


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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