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OT: looks like tough times ahead for Stock Market?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2008 at 3:41am
Oil soars past 145 dollars for first time       
Jul 3 12:24 AM US/Eastern
     
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          Oil surged past 145 dollars per barrel for the first time Thursday as the weak US dollar and Middle East tension stoked black gold's record-breaking run, analysts said.

Brent North Sea crude for August delivery hit 145.11 dollars in early Asian trade, before easing back to 144.90 dollars. It had settled at a record 144.26 in London on Wednesday after breaking 144 dollars for the first time.

New York's benchmark contract, light sweet crude for August delivery, hit an intra-day record price of 144.44 dollars. By late morning the contract was 70 cents higher at 144.27 against a record close of 143.57 in the US on Wednesday.

The latest surge followed a warning from Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari that his country, a key crude producer, would react fiercely to any attack against it.

"Iran, if there were any kind of activity of any sort, is not going to be quiet and would react fiercely," he told reporters on the sidelines of the World Petroleum Congress in Madrid.

He said oil prices, which have been driven to record levels partly because of fears about the loss of Iran's oil output, would rise radically if Israel or the United States launched a military strike.

"That's the kind of talk that kind of juices the market," said Jason Feer, vice president and general manager, Asia Pacific, for energy market analysts Argus Media Ltd. in Singapore.

Western powers and Iran have been engaged in long-running efforts to resolve a stalemate over Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, which the West fears could be used to make an atomic bomb.

Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.

The Iranian tensions, along with unrest which has cut output in key African producer Nigeria, and the weaker US currency were among factors combining to push prices higher, Feer said.

"It's the ongoing perfect storm, basically," he said.

The dollar slumped to a two-month low against the euro on Wednesday and held steady in Asian trade on Thursday. A weaker dollar makes commodities like oil denominated in the greenback more affordable for buyers with stronger currencies.

Phil Flynn at Alaron Trading said oil continued to gain momentum amid worries about the global economy, the dollar and other ills.

"Oil is a proxy for everything and an accurate reflection of our deep-seated fears and all of our insecurities," Flynn said during US trading hours.

Feer said the latest report released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration pointed to fairly weak demand in the United States, even though the traditional North American holiday motoring season is at its peak.

The report said stockpiles of crude had fallen by 2.0 million barrels in the week to June 27, while petrol stocks grew, Feer said.

OPEC secretary general Abdallah el-Badri said in an interview published Wednesday that US authorities should stop "harassing" members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel.

He argued that sky-high oil prices were not due to "the myth" of the lack of supplies -- as Western nations contend -- but to speculation sparked by a crisis in the US subprime mortgage sector.

Global oil prices have doubled in the past year and have risen by 45 percent since the start of 2008, when they breached 100 dollars for the first time, triggering fears over inflation and slower economic growth.

Protests against the soaring prices have also broken out around the world.

"I think it's becoming fairly clear that the only thing that's going to bring prices down is significant decline in demand growth in the Asia Pacific," Feer said.


Copyright AFP 2008, AFP stories and photos shall not be published, broadcast, rewritten for broadcast or publication or redistributed directly or indirectly in any medium
     


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2008 at 3:42am
My Opinion, things are going to get ugly soon..Stock market crash, war staring with Iran, and avain flu pandemic..Jeesh I pray I'm wrong!


Stocks Slide, Sending Dow Jones Average Into Bear Market...Drudge
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LaRo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2008 at 5:35am
Well if i recall the prediction was 150 by the 4th of July.  If they don't make it today, they will be very close.   All these price hikes are caused by the fed flooding the banking system with new money.  When you inject a trillion dollars of new money into the economy, it effects the whole world.  By pretending the inflation rate in the US is at 2% is another lie.  Most countries will tell their people the inflation is low but in reality it's running at double digits.  Look at your grocery bill and energy gill each month, then figure out your inflation rate.

If you use credit cards for your gas (at the pump) compare the January bill to the June, same thing at the grocery store.  Compare how much more it costs, that's your inflation rate.
r we there yet?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2008 at 12:52pm
The reason for the predicted crash is because of the Swiss Bank UBS now being in trouble.  Swiss banks control A LOT of world money, including for the U.S.  The U.S. mortgage melt down is now taking its' toll on the swiss bank, which is why they're going t o bump Paine Webber as well.   UBS announced on Friday (today) its new moertgage losses.  There is a reason why they announce news like this during non-trading days.   With GM now hanging by a  thread, this could get bad at anytime.    Here are a couple lengthy stories that re an interesting read.
itedowns

UBS faces more US credit writedowns

By Haig Simonian in Zurich

Published: July 4 2008 07:18 | Last updated: July 4 2008 12:12

UBS confirmed on Friday that it faced more heavy writedowns on its US credits, meaning that it would break even or make a loss in the second quarter.

Europe's biggest casualty of the US subprime crisis did not quantify the writedowns, which analysts have estimated at up to $7.5bn.

The bank said it had continued to make money in wealth and asset management but suffered renewed losses in investment banking. UBS has written off about $38bn since the start of the subprime crisis.

The bank stressed that it had no need to raise funds, saying its latest losses would leave the bank’s Tier 1 capital ratio at about 11.5 per cent as of June 30.

UBS has raised more than SFr30bn ($29.2bn) this year, mainly through a rights issue and sale of shares to strategic investors.

Bank shares, which have fallen heavily in recent weeks, initially recovered on the news, jumping more than 8 per cent. But by the close of trading, the stock was down 2.57 per cent at SFr20.48, well below the SFr21 a price of its recent SFr16bn rights issue.

Citigroup said, in a note to investors: "While [Friday's] statement rules out an immediate capital increase, we believe that the Swiss regulator's increased focus on the leverage ratio suggests harsher capital requirements ahead."

UBS gave an indirect indication of its latest markdowns by noting that its second-quarter results would benefit from a tax credit of about SFr3bn in connection with its losses to date. Working backwards, and assuming roughly normal profitability of up to SFr2bn in wealth and asset management combined, that implies a loss of at least SFr5bn in investment banking to produce break-even.

UBS said its latest writedowns stemmed from the effect of "further market deterioration" on previously disclosed positions, particularly adjustments to the value of its exposures to monoline insurers.

At the time of its first-quarter results, UBS disclosed that it had exposures of $6.3bn to monolines – a position viewed as ominous by many analysts given the concerns and subsequent ratings downgrades of many bond insurers.

The bank also confirmed fears that its problems with subprime, and broader reputational damage, had eroded its blue chip-private banking franchise, which until recently had escaped fallout. UBS said group net new money had been negative in the second quarter, though it did not distinguish between wealth and asset management.

The bank added that outflows were most severe in April but said matters improved in May and June, especially in wealth management. Full results for the second quarter will be revealed on August 12.

UBS on Friday failed in an attempt to move a lawsuit with HSH Nordbank over UBS’s alleged mismanagement of a $500m portfolio of collateralised debt obligations to London. The case, which is set to be heard in New York, was among the first to be filed over subprime mortgage losses in the wake of the credit crunch. UBS said it would seek to take the case to the Court of Appeal, given its possible impact on similar disputes.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0f8682de-4990-11dd-891a-000077b07658.html

 

UBS considers Paine Webber sale in review: sources

LONDON (Reuters) - Beleaguered Swiss bank UBS (UBSN.VX) is considering the sale of Paine Webber, the heart of its U.S. wealth management business, according to sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

UBS is under pressure from the Swiss financial watchdog and from one of its top shareholders, Olivant, to overhaul its business after more than $37 billion in writedowns during the credit turmoil.

The bank's management, led by Chief Executive Marcel Rohner, is also grappling with the U.S. trial of a former employee for helping a billionaire client hide $200 million.

Considering a sale of Paine Webber, the broker it bought nearly eight years ago for about $10 billion as a bridgehead into North America, is part of a review which is due to be concluded by October

If you are going to be a global wealth manager, then the U.S. is a market where you have to be present. But it is also the case that you have to make it more profitable. (A sale) is always an option," one of the sources told Reuters.

Another source said Paine Webber was "one of the assets that would be of serious interest to other people. If you were to merge Paine Webber with another brokerage, for example, there would be huge cost synergies," he said.

When Wachovia (WB.N) bought broker A.G. Edwards for $6.4 billion last year, it paid roughly $1 million per broker. A similar valuation for Paine Webber would value it at more than $8 billion.

A UBS spokesman declined to comment on whether Paine Webber -- the name has been ditched since the acquisition -- was under review, but said:

"UBS is the largest wealth manager in the world and a significant portion of global wealth resides in the U.S. The wealth management U.S. business is instrumental in offering investment solutions to America's wealthiest individuals."

In the June edition of a staff magazine, UBS Chairman Peter Kurer pledged to take a "hard look" at the group's strategy while underlining the need for every business to generate "sufficient profits."

UBS's U.S. wealth management business, which employs more than 8,200 brokers, made just 183 million Swiss francs pretax profit in the first three months of this year. It suffers from higher costs and thinner margins than the lucrative Swiss business.

Talking about the group review, chairman Kurer said: "It is imperative that we take another long, hard look at our strategy."

UBS is being helped in this review by investment bank Lazard (LAZ.N), whose chief Bruce Wasserstein also advised it on its acquisition of Paine Webber in 2000.

ROCKY ROAD

"We still have a rocky road ahead of us," said Kurer in the staff magazine. "It is going to take more hard work in the months ahead until we -- hopefully by the end of the year -- are back on track for success."

Many analysts see the U.S. wealth management business -- mostly Paine Webber -- as a natural candidate for sale, and senior bankers say it could make an attractive buy for Bank of America (BAC.N) or Morgan Stanley (MS.N).

The U.S. market has proven tough to crack. While UBS's Swiss business has predominantly very wealthy customers, the U.S. operation largely serves a more "downmarket" rich.

Paine Webber -- which sells investment advice and stock tips on commission -- has proven unsuccessful in tapping America's super-rich, say industry experts.

And its employees are more far expensive than those in Switzerland.

UBS is also embroiled in a legal battle that threatens to puncture strict Swiss banking secrecy rules.

One of its U.S. managers has been questioned by the U.S. authorities in an ongoing probe into whether UBS helped clients hide money from the tax authorities and is now required to stay at a hotel in the U.S. as the investigation continues.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waterboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2008 at 1:34pm
Good post Albert. Watch what happens to the market by Wednesday. Im glad Im almost completely out?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2008 at 1:48pm
Maybe we're headed for a "Super Recession".   This news came out at the end of trading on Tuesday. 
 
Merrill says GM bankruptcy possible

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) will need to raise as much as $15 billion in cash to shore up liquidity and bankruptcy is "not impossible" if the U.S. auto market continues to slump, Merrill Lynch said.

Other analysts have suggested GM, whose shares fell to a new 54-year low on Wednesday, needs to raise funds to ride out the downturn in the U.S. auto market through 2009.

But Merrill's estimate of GM's financing needs is the highest yet. It also carried the most stark warning of the bankruptcy risk for the largest U.S. automaker.

GM declined to comment directly on the Merrill Lynch report but it believes it has sufficient liquidity for 2008 despite lower volumes and could take more steps to cut costs if sales conditions worsen.

"If conditions continue to deteriorate, we would consider other operating measures," GM spokeswoman Renee Rashid-Merem told Reuters.

Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy cut GM to "underperform" from "buy" and lowered his price target for the largest U.S. automaker to $7 from $28. Shares fell as much as 11 percent to $10.50 in Wednesday's trading in the New York Stock Exchange. The cost to insure GM's debt rose.

Murphy also lowered his forecast for 2008 U.S. industry-wide light vehicle sales for the third time this year and said the recent drastic decline in sales would likely to continue through 2009.

Murphy forecasts light vehicle sales of 14.3 million units this year and 14 million units for next year. That compares with 16.15 million units in 2007 and is sharply lower than the current forecast of most major automakers, including GM

"The recent extreme deterioration in volume and mix is driving much higher cash burn and eroding GM's cash position," Murphy said. "We believe $15 billion is necessary because there is downside risk to our current estimates and a greater cushion is essential."

Any capital GM raises has the potential to dilute equity if it's done through convertible offering or the issuance of additional equity, both possibilities analysts have raised.

DEEPER DOWNTURN AHEAD?

The deepening concerns about the sales outlook for GM come after a June sales report that showed industry-wide auto sales dropping to a 15-year low.

GM's own sales fell by a narrower-than-expected 8 percent on an adjusted basis after the automaker offered zero-percent financing for six years.

But Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache said GM could see a "payback" from its June sale in coming months, with its U.S. market share dropping back below 20 percent from 22 percent in June as sales fall back.

Several other Wall Street banks including Citigroup also downgraded automakers and parts suppliers on Wednesday and lowered their outlook for U.S. auto sales this year and next.

Citigroup analyst Itay Michaeli lowered his forecast for 2008 U.S. vehicle sales to 14.5 million units from 15 million, saying plummeting resale values of trucks and SUVs was crimping demand already hurt by weak housing and tighter credit.

Itay said a full recovery in the U.S. auto market would begin only in 2010 or 2011.

Michaeli said GM has to weather the current downturn with considerably less backup liquidity than smaller rival Ford Motor Co (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which tapped the leveraged loan market at its peak in late 2006 to raise $23 billion.

"While we do not believe GM is facing an immediate cash crunch, the urgency to shore up liquidity to navigate through a difficult 2008-2009 has risen significantly in recent months," Michaeli said. He cut GM's target price to $14 from $21.

Industry tracking firm Global Insight cut its forecast for the annualized sales rate in July to 14.4 million units and cut its 2009 forecast to 14.2 million units in sales, citing the risk of higher average oil prices in the months ahead.

Credit option contracts on the Chicago Board Options Exchange that would pay out if GM or Ford default before September 2012 ticked higher. The contracts, which remain lightly traded, point to a roughly 73-percent default risk for GM and a 69-percent risk for Ford over that period.

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote monte Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2008 at 3:23am
so should someone cash in all their investments like 401ks (except PM)?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2008 at 9:21am
Nope, I wouldn't cash in your 401k, in fact never cash them in. Just shift your 401k investment scheme to favor commodities. Most of the money in your 401k is theoretical money. If the stock market tanks, the money in your 401k isn't going to be worth anything anyway, and the risk that the market isn't going to crash is far too great for you to pull your money out because it "Might" take a crap.
 
I use Military retirement investment, it's called Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) and it's probably one of the best deals I've ever seen. It's basically the program George W. wanted to give to all Americans through Social Security reform.The Dems saw that W had too good of an idea so they tanked it. Too bad too.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2008 at 9:28am
Good advise Turgoguy, "...use Military retirement investment, it's called Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)..."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2008 at 10:56am
The S&P is predicted to lose 300 points by September, which is a 25% loss.   It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion.   A 25% loss on the DOW is  -3000 points. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote H2HPrep Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2008 at 12:56pm
What is your opinion of why GM is on the verge of bankrupcy?
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Originally posted by H2HPrep H2HPrep wrote:

What is your opinion of why GM is on the verge of bankrupcy?

"Other analysts have suggested GM, whose shares fell to a new 54-year low on Wednesday, needs to raise funds to ride out the downturn in the U.S. auto market through 2009."
 
H2H, I really do not know what will happen if GM goes bankrupt, so many workers will loose their jobs. I remember in the late 70's when the local Ford plant closed their doors in Downey, California that was tough on the area.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2008 at 2:02pm
Rising gas prices is the primary problem for GM.  SUV sales have plummeted, and GM was caught off guard.   They will need until 2010 before mass producing compact cars.  They have a short term target share price of $7.00, which will probably be closer to $2.00 before it's done.  Imagine if your 401k was tied up in GM.   This could be a look of what lays ahead, but of course on a much broader scale. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote H2HPrep Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2008 at 6:51pm
Annie, I hope if the do file, it will be a reorganization type. I recall Continental airlines
went bankrupt about every 10 years.
 
I hope the retiree's won't take a hit.
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Stocks keep oil in crosshairs

Dow, Nasdaq already reach bear territory as crude marches higher

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Stocks are expected to come under further pressure next week, as surging crude oil prices threaten to tip the broad market more convincingly into bear-market territory.

Markets are now "ridiculously correlated" with crude, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management. "If we see oil going up to $150, the markets will no doubt have more pressure."

Crude surged more than 3% this past week to a new high above $145 a barrel. The price of oil has now doubled in less than a year. See Futures Movers. As the market prepares for the onset of second-quarter earnings season next week, investors will watch for signs of weak demand from cash-strapped consumers as well as the impact of surging energy costs to gauge the impact on bottom lines.

 

But in terms of the holiday-shortened week, the Dow still dropped 0.5% and it's down 20% from its Oct. 9 high of 14,165, putting the blue-chip index in bear-market conditions.

The Nasdaq, which fell 3% on the week, is in the same rut, now down 21.5% from its Oct. 31 high of 1,562.

Offering a slightly rosier assessment, the S&P 500 Index, which most Wall Strategists consider a more accurate gauge of the broader equities scene, remains a hair shy of the general definition of a bear market. It fell 1.2% in the week and is now down 19.2% from its Oct. 10 high of 1,562.

"If the price of oil continues to be at or above the current levels, the market is going to continue to go down," said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Johnson Illington Advisors.

Rallies in stock markets will be sustainable only when "investors collectively become more optimistic about the outlook for the economy and earnings," Johnson said. "I don't see anything that will happen next week that will change the outlook for the economy, which remains very gloomy."

On Friday, stocks got some help from the government's June employment report, which was more or less in line with market expectations, and it somewhat offset worries that the economy is getting worse. The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls dropped by 62,000 workers last month, while the jobless rate remained steady at 5.5%. Read Economic Report.

But investors also contended with news from the Institute for Supply Management, which said the services sector of the U.S. economy contracted unexpectedly in June, falling to its lowest level since the start of the year. See Economic Report

The Labor Department next Thursday will report this week's jobless claim, which is also on investors' radar.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/stock-market-braces-oils-ever-higher/story.aspx?guid=%7B15926E66%2DCFD2%2D4004%2DAE60%2D5688AECB3710%7D&siteid=nwhfriend
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2008 at 9:43am
quoted Albert

Markets are now "ridiculously correlated" with crude, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management. "If we see oil going up to $150, the markets will no doubt have more pressure."

Many things are happening at a rapid rate.
 
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The United States must take another step towards a global climate change pact when major industrialized countries meet in Japan next week, the head of the European Union's executive said on Friday.

"In this G8 summit we will expect the United States to show more ambition than they have shown so far," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told reporters.

"The world expects more from a major economy like the United States," Barroso said. "I am saying that not just as a hope -- I expect the U.S. will accept a more ambitious conclusion at the G8 than the one last year."

 
Reuters Posted on Saturday, July 05 @ 18:19:48 PDT by coyote
 
 
Ethanol in Center of Price Storm

For many months, an intense debate has been waged among interest groups and politicians in Washington over the role of corn-based ethanol in higher food prices.

The issue is coming to a head now, with the Environmental Protection Agency poised to decide soon whether to roll back the Renewable Fuel Standard. That's the federal mandate calling for the production of 9 billion gallons of biofuels in 2008 and even greater amounts in the future.

It's one of a handful of federal government policies spurring on the boom in corn-fed ethanol plants. Those facilities are gobbling up the country's corn, which raises the price for corn and other crops.

Under federal law, the EPA has the power to waive or reduce the fuel standard if necessary to protect the environment or the economy of a particular state, region or the country as a whole.

redOrbit Posted on Saturday, July 05 @ 18:13:09 PDT by coyote

 
High oil prices spur demand for low energy electronics

SEOUL (Reuters) - These days when customers walk into electronics stores, the first question they ask is how much electricity the fridge, washing machine or laptop computer they are contemplating buying consumes.

"Energy savings were not exactly a hot topic among customers last year," said Kim Dong-han at South Korean electronics retailer Hi-Mart. "But this year, nine out of ten people ask point blank whether a product will help them save money."

"Going green is not only eco-friendly but crucial for business," said Kim Jik-soo, a spokesman at LG Electronics Inc. "This goes beyond just products, extending throughout the development and manufacturing process."

From washing machines that use steam instead of hot water, to fridges that use low energy compressors, to low power computer screens, electronics firms are furiously developing energy efficient products and heavily promoting lines already on the market that use less electricity than competitors' brands.

Reuters Posted on Saturday, July 05 @ 18:01:34 PDT by coyote

 
  
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2008 at 10:58am
Originally posted by Annie Annie wrote:

Good advise Turgoguy, "...use Military retirement investment, it's called Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)..."
 
Unfortunately it's only available to government and uniformed personnel. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2008 at 3:53pm
It didn't have to be, it could have been available to *ALL* of us, but your friendly neighborhood Democrap decided to tank that one.
 
Gotta keep people in the poorhouse when they're old, otherwise they might wise up and vote Republican!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2008 at 4:26pm
Got that one right Turboguy!
Always Be Prepared
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I'm sure it probably came with a huge tax cut for the wealthy somewhere in it.   Wink
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