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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Pandemic Response Comprehensive

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Franco2116 View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 24 2013 at 7:59pm
It's hard to plan to survive something that is likely to touch on every aspect of your life…
First thing to understand is that Pandemics come in waves and should not be thought of as an “event”, but rather, as a series of events. PBS has a film that is part of their “American Experience” Series and is on DVD for sale (It was streaming for free) but now is only available on VDV for sale http://www.shoppbs.org/product/index.jsp?productId=2151690
The thing about the video is that it walks you through each of the waves and clearly demonstrates that it can be a long drawn out experience and that is something that must be understood for planning purposes.

Then, we have to realize that the immediate impart will probably be In the form of shortages of items that are imported from China and other far Eastern countries. There should be a lot of sick people there, long before we see any major impact here in the USA. It would be best to know how to find items that are “Made in the USA”, which is something that we should all be doing anyway (but that is another issue and forum). http://UnitedAmericanConsumer.com is a good Site for finding real things that are not made in China, (not just specialty items like wooden toys), but there are many Sites that are good. The point is to not be dependent on exclusively items made in China, if a Pandemic hits them hard and first.

Then, when things hit us here, we might see a lot of sick people and they might be very sick…
News Report:
As new death reports come in, a team of experts from China published a scary report yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) suggesting that the new H7N9 avian flu virus is even more deathly than previously believed.
The conclusions: H7N9 causes unusually severe respiratory infection, sepsis, and brain damage, and appears to be resistant to vaccination and treatment.
But here’s where it gets really scary. In a commentary on “global concerns” pertaining to H7N9, also in the NEJM, Influenza experts Timothy Uyeki, MD and Nancy Cox discuss the potential of H7H9 to cause a pandemic (a fast-moving global epidemic) and warn that this possibility is real.

What that means is; the virus can take you down and change your life, even if you do “recover”. So the best thing is to simply not get infected and that means social distancing. Working remotely (VPN and conference calls as opposed to going into the office and having lots of food, prescription meds and other items in the house and working with the schools and making sure they are ready, just in case it comes to a shelter in place scenario.

There is a LOT to plan for and understand and a comprehensive approach is advised.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Franco2116 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2013 at 12:45pm
The best immediate precautions are to:

1.     Try and work from home via VPN and limit outside travel to the absolute minimum necessary.

2.     Practice social distancing and clean your workplace area every day when you go in, because cleaning teams are there at night and they might have been sick.

3.     Wash your hands about every 30 minutes each day or immediately after anyone hands you something. Also wipe down the object they hand you with disinfectant or if it is paper, then set it down and don’t handle it.

4.     Encourage everyone to send you soft copies of everything via your email.

5.     Maintain double arms length when talking face-to-face to people and have no face-to-face communications with anyone who appears sick, even if they say "it is just allergies".

6.     Wear some sort of washable reusable or disposable gloves when you are out of your home and drop them in a plastic bag on the porch before bringing them inside to wash.

7.     Clean (disinfect) the outer surface of anything that comes into your home (wipe down the cans, bottles and other packages when you bring them home from the Supermarket.

There is no confirmation that H7N9 is in or anywhere near the USA at this time and that is probably correct, but this is the time to get your routine down, nice and smooth. You don’t want to be one of those people running around with their hair on fire, trying to figure out what to do and how to do it after it is obvious that you have to do something.

If it comes to that...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Franco2116 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2013 at 12:53pm
As far as we can determine, the best disinfectant to use against H7N9 is "Virkron broad spectrum disinfectant" http://www2.dupont.com/Virkon_S/en_GB/index.html

It absolutely kills H7N9 when used as directed, but it does have a bluish / purple color that gets on anything you disinfect. We are not 100% sure about chlorine bleach and bleach has its own discoloration issues.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2013 at 1:21pm
Good information franco- good posts.

Welcome to the forum.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Franco2116 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2013 at 8:07pm
Remember that a medical facility is a great place to pick up something and get sick even when there is no Pandemic.

If you are sick or injured… and I mean sick or injured in a way that absolutely requires the resources that are only found in a hospital or clinic, then you need to take the risk and go to a hospital or clinic during a Pandemic, otherwise STAY AWAY FROM THE MEDICAL FACILITIES!!!

Learn to shelter in place and care for family members at home.

Designate a sick room, (one that is large enough for at least two (2) beds) and use that room as the isolation ward for anyone who gets sick. That means move everything out of that room in advance, so there is no reason to go in there except to care for the sick family member(s) that you suspect have the flu and do not use that same room for people who have simply been injured doing work around the house.

Use shower curtains around each of the beds in the isolation room and a separate shower curtain at the room’s door. Brooms sticks and duck tape work wonders in setting this up. We will call this the “dressing room area”.

At the room’s entrance door erect the shower curtain just inside the room, so that you create an area between the room itself and the door. That is where you will change clothes, because you don’t want to wear the same clothes back into the rest of the house, that you have been wearing while caring for the sick family member.

If you have a humidifier, it can be used with a breathable disinfectant like Virkron inside of the room, when you are in there with the sick family member. Carefully follow the solution mixture instructions.

Wear a respirator mask while you are in the room (Full face with organic vapor /acid gas filters) or at a minimum, use the N95 Particulate Respirator Mask with a pair of Safety Goggles.

You have to keep all of your skin covered while working with the sick family member, meaning face, hands, arms and chest area. Wear rubber (disposable “medical grade” gloves that are powder free) or at least those yellow kitchen gloves, that are water proof and can be washed with disinfectant and reused.

Obviously, all of the clothing you wear to the sick room should be hung on the other side of the dressing room area and kept away from the clothes that you change into and wear while caring for the sick family member.

If you can, buy those white chemical resistant suites that are used for spill cleanup operations or if that is not possible, then use thick woven wool or cotton shirt and pants that you have sprayed with a LOT of Scotch Guard repellent.

That will help keep any cough or sneeze liquids from getting though to your skin. If it is possible, have the sick family member were an N95 mask also, covering their nose and mouth will protect you more than covering yours.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Franco2116 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2013 at 8:10pm
Thanks Albert
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Franco2116 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2013 at 9:22am
One of the best preparedness measures is to simply ensure that you have stocked up on the things that you typically use, such as food, hygiene care products and other supplies.

It is best to try and avoid buying things that you never eat. Just buy more of the normal stuff, (canned foods are best, since they don’t require added water) and try to remember that if you end up doing more physical work than you normally do, your calorie intake may need to increase.

Please don’t forget that if enough people get sick, it may affect the ability of public utilities to operate and electricity, water and gas services may (in an extreme scenario) be affected.

Charcoal for the grill, water to wash and cook with (you need at least 1 gal per person, each day) and batteries for power (try to avoid candles due to the fire hazard) and solar powered flashlights are probably the best option for lighting, with crank powered radios being the best way to get information.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2013 at 2:06pm
One more thing on the lighting. Always, always, always get LEDs for the greatly extended battery life they offer. If you have regular incandescent flashlights, do yourself a favor and throw them in the trash right now before they burn through your batteries in a fraction of the run an LED light will run. They are simply not worth it. That is of course assuming you have flashlights.
The reason I say that is because here in SoCal we were one of the areas that got hit by the blackout of 2012. It didn't last long - the grid went down in mid afternoon and came back on here by the early hours of the morning. When it got dark (and damn, it was dark) we went for a walk, and we were the only people with flashlights. Lots of people were finding their way with cellphones held low enough to the ground to illuminate the sidewalks. On every block we saw maybe one or two houses with what looked like a candle flickering in one room. I found twelve flashlights just in my car, and the RV yielded enough campground area lights for each room. Between those, the propane stoves and the battery powered radio, from outside our place looked like business as usual, while the rest of town was silent and dark. That night my wife got a glimpse into why I prep Wink
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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2013 at 2:09am
I will go to bed at sundown and up at sunup.   No need to worry about light except for the bathroom.   In winter I have my fireplace insert for light and heat and cooking.   

Water is necessary I always suggest Cube4Water they don't take up room in storage.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote lizzie b.g Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2013 at 5:31am
I use an Aga for hot water, cooking and central heating run by gravity feed so no need for an electric pump and solar panels in summer. We grow our own fruit and veg and rear goats and chickens and we are just digging out an underground greenhouse to extend our growing season. We have 2 wells and a 500 gallon old Russian water tanker underground and we have 2 generators. I wish we had some firearms but we can't get them in Bulgaria as yet but we are working on it but I do have two very big and extremely protective Black Russian Terriers and my partner is ex special forces and a very highly trained martial artist. I don't think we will have the same problems as other countries as in Bulgaria most folk still grow their own food and as we don't need to work we can practice social distancing. I do have a guest house in my grounds equipped the same as mine as we have considered taking another couple in with similar skills and no we are doomsday preppers we just like to be self sufficient.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Franco2116 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2013 at 12:10pm
Yes, now we are cooking with gas...

LED is much better if you really want the flashlight batteries to work long enough to get you through the week. But be careful how many people you pack into one household and at what point you stop letting anyone move in.

Gardens are great, but if you have the only food source in the neighborhood, you need to give a lot of thought about how to protect that garden. Generally speaking, no single household should expect to be able to fend off all of their neighbors and protect a garden from them, animals, insects and deal with a lack of water if that becomes an issue.

The best idea would be to establish a neighborhood garden. One large enough to feed everyone who contributed to the growing and security.
In this way, if you can get a little water from everyone and security support from those who really don’t know much about farming, then you should end up with enough neighborhood watch to protect the garden.

The best idea is to first make sure you have as much canned food in your household as you can afford to buy and have room to stock, so that you have preparations at the household level.

Then to organize the neighborhood garden, (and we know how hard that will be), but a neighborhood of two streets sitting back-to-back, will have about 100 households and that is a lot of resources and if needed firepower.

Having enough food in the household to not have to go down to the store, while influenza is spreading, or not have to rely on a government distribution system if food production has a sharp drop for a while, is the front-line objective and with a lot of people getting too sick to eat much or eventually expiring and not needing to eat at all, it may mean that food may not be the really big problem after the last wave of an influenza Pandemic passes.

The really big Pandemics in history left more resources than people who needed those resources.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Franco2116 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 08 2013 at 8:03am
Staying safe from H7N9… You don't have to believe in Bird Flu and it won't matter if you don't, because it believes in you!

 

1.     Work remotely via VPN or Telecommute if possible

2.     Clean your work area each day, at the start of your shift

3.     Practice Social Distancing when you have to be out of the house stay arms length from everyone you talk to in person and wash hands every 30 min’s or after being handed anything and keep your hands out of your mouth. Also cook your own food and take your lunch to work with you

4.     Stock enough food at home for a minimum 30 days, so that you do not need to shop if Flu conditions become severe.

5.     Talk to your children’s school and determine (advocate for changes if necessary) what tele-course options are available if the schools close or there is too much Flu to send your kids to school.

6.     Make sure that you have enough of everything that you need, (including recreational resources) so that you can spend a LOT of time at home, with no visitors. This is not rocket science, but you have to deal with an issue if it becomes an issue. 

th

Th



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CStackDrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 12 2013 at 5:30pm
See "Before" and "During":  http://ready.gov/pandemic

Good advice given regarding "social distancing", i.e. stay in place, work remotely, etc. 

Washing your hands is a good idea, how many know the correct way to do it?  (I was Infection Control Coordinator at the largest hospital in Chicago).  

Hint: don't touch the door handle on the way out, use a fresh paper towel to open the door!  About 50% of people don't wash their hands after going to the bathroom, and even if they do, if they rub a runny nose & then open the door handle, that door handle is now contaminated and crawling with pathogens.

The alcohol hand gels are great against bacteria, not so great against viruses.  Soap & water is the best.  

If folks hunker down during the first two waves of an outbreak, it will run its course.  Public health experts will manage the outbreak in great detail....read about how the SARS outbreak was managed if you want inspiration.  The hero of that outbreak was Carlo Urbani, MD.....R.I.P. 

CRS, DrPH
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