Exponential Growth of Swine Flu in the USA
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Forum Name: General Discussion
Forum Description: (General discussion regarding the next pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=22868
Printed Date: April 30 2024 at 1:05am
Topic: Exponential Growth of Swine Flu in the USA
Posted By: tpa_guy
Subject: Exponential Growth of Swine Flu in the USA
Date Posted: May 08 2009 at 10:53am
I compiled all the updates from the CDC and the the flu growth is already exponential. So I guess we are lucky since Flu season is ending. I'm curious to see what the graph looks like a week from, two weeks from now etc.....will it level off?  |
Replies:
Posted By: Dijoy
Date Posted: May 08 2009 at 1:27pm
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Will it peak? ------------- Diane |
Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: May 08 2009 at 1:29pm
| At some point i hope. I'm going to try and update the chart every day to see if a different trend develops. |
Posted By: worriedinMD
Date Posted: May 08 2009 at 1:40pm
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Don't forget that the CDC now said that the number of cases confirmed by the state should be considered correct, since many states are now testing themselves.
Just from checking the STATE sites this morning vs the CDC chart from today I found the following states reporting more confirmed than the CDC -
Alabama - 22 additional
Californina - 21
Connecticut - 10
Florida - 17
Illinois - 1
Maryland - 17
Minnesota - 1
Missouri - 1
Nebraska - 10
Oregon - 33
Tennessee - 10
Utah - 3
So that's a total of 144 more cases that have been confirmed by the States individually than the CDC lists on it's site.
In addition, there are an additional 550 probable cases listed by the 20 or so states that are actually listing their data.
Some states data was last updated on May 4 or 5, so there may be even more cases than that.
Sobering.
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Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: May 08 2009 at 3:04pm
| interesting,,,didn't know this...so the case load is much higher.. |
Posted By: LisaP
Date Posted: May 08 2009 at 3:33pm
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There are now 83 confirmed cases in Massachusetts.
------------- Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong. |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 08 2009 at 5:22pm
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Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: May 09 2009 at 8:25am
Update 5/9/09 |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 09 2009 at 11:20am
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 09 2009 at 3:57pm
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Thanks for posting this data. Kinda blows the lid on - the flu is on the decline in the U.S. when we are seeing exponential number of cases - and this has to be conservative. mc |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 09 2009 at 4:09pm
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Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: May 09 2009 at 4:22pm
| good point. |
Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: May 09 2009 at 4:53pm
I added the worldwide cases per the WHO. This way we can see if the US levels off while the world keeps going up. |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 09 2009 at 7:52pm
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 09 2009 at 8:50pm
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 7:23am
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Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 7:27am
| awesome spread sheet! Good work! |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 7:39am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 8:30am
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Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 8:33am
| where did you get the CDC numbers for today. I looked at their website and they are not updated yet. |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 8:36am
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Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 8:45am
| OK got it. For some reason my browser was not refreshing. A quick cash clearout fixed that. |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 3:42pm
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Posted By: dr d
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 4:09pm
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okay,now add into the equation that the Brazileans come to Orlando every summer( WINTER fro them) and visit DISNEY,SEAWORLD,restaurants and hotels.( We always a additional flu here.) How would that change the math ??? ------------- Dr d |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 4:14pm
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Posted By: dr d
Date Posted: May 11 2009 at 4:26pm
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bummer....me either ------------- Dr d |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 12 2009 at 12:54am
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Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: May 12 2009 at 10:25am
Updated spread sheet with today's numbers. I added the increase in US cases to the WHO number. The WHO updates the US cases a day late. |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 12 2009 at 10:27am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 12 2009 at 10:43am
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Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: May 12 2009 at 11:19am
I think your worldwide numbers are off. I think you are double counting the US cases. |
noflu4u wrote:
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 12 2009 at 11:19am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 12 2009 at 11:41am
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Posted By: dr d
Date Posted: May 12 2009 at 2:50pm
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http://www.ext.colostate.edu/Pubs/emergency/fdsf.html - http://www.ext.colostate.edu/Pubs/emergency/fdsf.html
http://www.fcs.uga.edu/pubs/current/FDNS-E-34-1.htmlhttp://www.fcs.uga.edu/pubs/current/FDNS-E-34-1.html - http://www.fcs.uga.edu/pubs/current/FDNS-E-34-1.htmlhttp://www.fcs.uga.edu/pubs/current/FDNS-E-34-1.html
lots of other good sites for preps there too ------------- Dr d |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 13 2009 at 8:39am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 13 2009 at 9:26am
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Posted By: LisaP
Date Posted: May 13 2009 at 1:40pm
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Now that the CDC has changed their recommendations on the use of anti-virals, I wonder how that is going to change the numbers. I thought that the antivirals worked to prevent the replication of the virus in the body. I'm also suspecting that they are getting low on the stockpiles since they are recommending that clinicians only prescribe it for high risk patients/pregnant women, elderly, very young and people with underlying medical conditions WHICH they spell out. . . hmmmmmmmm
------------- Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong. |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 13 2009 at 8:00pm
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 13 2009 at 8:21pm
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 14 2009 at 7:18am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 14 2009 at 9:11am
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Posted By: LisaP
Date Posted: May 14 2009 at 12:09pm
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Here in Massachusetts I noticed that the Dept. of Public Health only seems to report incidences of hospitalization after the person has been discharged because in every instance that is how it appears. So in theory there could be hundreds of people hospitalized at this time but it won't show up until they are discharged .. . or dead.
------------- Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong. |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 14 2009 at 12:30pm
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 14 2009 at 1:04pm
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 15 2009 at 7:09am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 15 2009 at 8:26am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 15 2009 at 8:59am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 15 2009 at 9:20am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 16 2009 at 11:02am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 17 2009 at 7:53am
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Posted By: hope4bestprep4wrst
Date Posted: May 17 2009 at 8:01am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 18 2009 at 8:00am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 18 2009 at 9:05am
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Posted By: dr d
Date Posted: May 18 2009 at 9:05am
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Now compare that to the CDC data out today. Seasonal flu 59 children dead. mortality reports from 122 cities 6-8% for adults. ------------- Dr d |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 18 2009 at 11:43am
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Posted By: dr d
Date Posted: May 18 2009 at 4:07pm
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http://www.providentliving.org/content/list/0,11664,6640-1,00.html - http://www.providentliving.org/content/list/0,11664,6640-1,00.html
his is a latter day saints site open the container gardening. Good info there ------------- Dr d |
Posted By: Sara123
Date Posted: May 18 2009 at 9:19pm
| CDC estimates we have around 100k infections in the US; two hundred - mostly ages 5-18 with hospital care (intensive and non-intensive care)- and six deaths so far. The fear is that everything could spin out of control given we have done little in our country to control the infection on the hope it is not serious. So far, it is not rendering serious complications - it is mostly not servere. Don't worry be happy. |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 19 2009 at 9:50am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 20 2009 at 8:46am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 20 2009 at 8:57am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 20 2009 at 12:47pm
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 21 2009 at 9:41am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 22 2009 at 9:02am
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Posted By: LisaP
Date Posted: May 22 2009 at 12:08pm
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I believe it was May 8th when the CDC announced that testing would be done in the individual states and changed their protocol on which cases to test - sorry haven't found the link yet - but how interesting that May 8th showed such huge growth and the numbers have gone down so dramatically in the US, but seem to be steadily climbing worldwide. Hmmmm doesn't pass my smell test.
------------- Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong. |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 22 2009 at 12:13pm
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 23 2009 at 9:16am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 25 2009 at 7:25am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 25 2009 at 9:25am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 26 2009 at 11:16am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 27 2009 at 6:13am
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Posted By: Technologist
Date Posted: May 27 2009 at 6:17am
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http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/ - FLUTRACKER has 9972 US cases Recorded and almost the same in Mexico About 22,000 worldwide cases. Are you adding this data?
Also if countries are grossly under reporting cases the % of Mortality Rate will start climbing at this point. |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 27 2009 at 7:04am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 27 2009 at 9:12am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 27 2009 at 10:20am
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Posted By: endman
Date Posted: May 27 2009 at 11:04am
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Check you local news you be surprised
http://www.fairlawn.org/ - http://www.fairlawn.org/
Fair Lawn Borough is located in Bergen County, New Jersey in the northeast corner of the State. As of the 2000 census, Fair Lawn had a population of 31,637 residents. Its history can be traced back to the Lenni-Lenapi tribes, and was incorporated as a Borough in 1924.
Fair Lawn is a great place to visit...
With such historical sites as the Native American fishing weir, Garreston Forge and Farm Restoration, Radburn: the first planned community and the old Dutch House Tavern. There are three shopping districts along Broadway, River Road and Fair Lawn Avenue and two train stations serviced by New Jersey Transit into New York City and points north. Fair Lawn is a better place to live...
With over a dozen recreational facilities and parks serviced by one of the best recreation departments in New Jersey, houses of worship of many different faiths, a top-notch school system and a brand new state-of-the-art Community Center. SWINE FLU (H1N1) PUBLIC NOTICE:
News Release: May 26, 2009 There have been cases of Influenza including some Novel A Influenza (“swine flu”) in the Fair Lawn. All cases of illness have been mild. The Fair Lawn Schools and Health Department are actively conducting case investigations and surveillance to track and hopefully slow down the spread of illness. Persons feeling ill with high fever, cough and sore throat should stay home and see a physician. All persons are urged to cover their nose and mouth when coughing and sneezing. Wash hands thoroughly and frequently throughout the day. For more information, visit the CDC website at http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu - www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu . |
Posted By: Dijoy
Date Posted: May 27 2009 at 2:07pm
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There were 44 in the West Midlands over the weekend. No deaths yet thank God ------------- Diane |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 28 2009 at 10:19am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: May 29 2009 at 9:08am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: June 01 2009 at 9:09am
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: June 05 2009 at 4:40pm
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: June 05 2009 at 4:49pm
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Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: June 06 2009 at 1:12am
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Posted By: Technologist
Date Posted: June 06 2009 at 3:51am
We appreciate all your work. Based on Mexico's mortally rate. This seemed much worse then it really was. If the WHO numbers are 1/100th of the true numbers, then this is good news. As they can't hide most of the deaths. So the swine flu is turning out to be just a very unique and contagious flu. It may mutate, It may turn into the worst Pandemic in 100 years and it might not. Regardless... The mortality rate in Mexico was lower then estimated as most cases were not reported. How many with typical flu symptoms even went to hospital? Most likely only the very sick and dying were tested. Tens of thousands had it before it was every discovered. The thousands or more we spent preparing for the worst is still a good investment. $1000 for a loaf of bread would be a bargain for a starving family. Regardless of how our resources are cut off, months or more of emergency preparedness will pay off. Over 99% of species that ever lived are now extinct. Look at the moon, it's tiny compared to the earth. Yet it has endless craters that are hundreds of miles in diameter. Impacts more powerful then millions of nuclear bombs. I bet 90% of all humans that died of disasters could of lived if they panned for the possibility of such an event. |
Posted By: jeanne
Date Posted: June 06 2009 at 2:16pm
i am fascinated by the changes in the growth rate. until the third of may (a sunday) the growth rate of new cases was from 21% to 84.9%. it hovered in the 20s to 30s until may 10th (a sunday). from may 11 to the 15th (a friday), the growth was in the teens. this is about the same time the news started drying up. from the 16th until the 27th of may (merely a wednesday), the growth rate has been settling at around 3%. that's hardly exponential. can someone explain this? |
Posted By: noflu4u
Date Posted: June 06 2009 at 2:30pm
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Posted By: Technologist
Date Posted: June 06 2009 at 4:08pm
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Here are some very simple projections based on the last month of growth. Nothing else taken into account so things won't really follow this trend very accurately. Worldwides cases 2,000 May 35,000 June 6th 612,000 July 6th 10,700,000 August 6th 187,000,000 September 6th 3.2 billion November 6th |
Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: July 17 2009 at 10:47am
World cases and Deaths as of 7/6/09 |
Posted By: happiness is
Date Posted: July 19 2009 at 8:59pm
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Tech,
It was stated here that there were more than one million cases in the US, how does that change the rates for other countries??
One million was the number from the beginning of this month. Can you revisit the extrapolations with the one million put into place ?? ------------- dreamer |
Posted By: Technologist
Date Posted: July 19 2009 at 9:44pm
I was the one that posted the 1,000,000+ US link. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/27/health/27flu.html - Link Two months ago I estimated the total infected would be around 30-50% worldwide. The deaths in the 9-15 million range. That's worldwide cases. Now I'm thinking it's going to be a little higher by the second wave. Follow the charts here: Move all the dates 2-4 weeks earlier and you'll get an idea of how I think this is going to move. This one is moving faster compared to the 1918 Pandemic but it has not mutated like it did in 1918. I'm not expecting the mortality rate to be as high as 1918. Hopefully I'm correct. If I'm wrong the mortally rate will jump much higher. I'm guessing all US schools will open for two weeks and close or kids will be forced into summer school and completely bypass the first semester of school. That would allow time for mass distribution of a vaccine. Remember heat and humidity slow this down a great deal. Look at Australia as it's their coldest months now and they are getting hit much harder now. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif - Link to 1918 Pandemic |
Posted By: tpa_guy
Date Posted: August 13 2009 at 7:27pm
Here are the graphs showing the latest data from the WHO. There is definitely an uptick in the CFR. |
Posted By: scimla
Date Posted: August 13 2009 at 8:10pm
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The growth is the cause of the useless advisories of the WHO Chan & Fukuda! All their nonsense about hand washing, social distancing and other so called mitigation efforts only allows the virus to survive in the environment. There is no physical effort being emphasized to destroy the virus on surfaces where they are most vulnerable! Chan & Fukuda are crooks out for the money on vaccines & so called anti-virals. These crooks are raking in millions right now! WAKE UP USA, CHINA HAS LESS INFECTION & DEATH FROM THE DISEASE BECAUSE OF THEIR INTENSE INFECTION CONTROL PROCEDURES!
------------- scimla7seven |
Posted By: Mary008
Date Posted: August 14 2009 at 11:13am
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CHINA HAS LESS INFECTION & DEATH FROM THE DISEASE BECAUSE OF THEIR INTENSE INFECTION CONTROL PROCEDURES!
.............................
This is a point worth noting. remember when we were all writing on the H5N1 Avian flu?
This practice of disinfection was widely talked about... and the new types of cleaning products being used and the photos of the subway and rail systems being sanitized in large cities...they still do this in Asia, China, Japan... In the US? :/ sometimes the simplest measures go unheeded, to the public's detriment.
...............
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