Viewing the WHO report from Keiji Fukuda yesterday it seem clear that Saudi Arabia is taking MERS very seriously. I believe they are more aggressive on the topic and seem to be putting more efforts into testing than any other country. This makes sense since they have the most cases. In saying this i believe even they are still under reporting/discovering cases.
I would love to see someone run pandemic simulation software with just the Saudi cases. Excluding other countries could give a differing result. Does anyone have access to this software or know people who can run test or maybe make comment about this. (It would also pay to mess with some fudge numbers based around under reporting asymptomatic cases.)
The reason for this, is i suspect many other countries are not reporting asymptomatic MERS cases effectively. This maybe a combination of problems such that were eluded to by Keiji yesterday. Disorganized with testing, cant get the correct serum, maybe don't understand the level of threat, under funded medical systems etc etc.
Gotta say. I was quite shocked at the amateur nature of the WHO's press conference. They were using some crappy room with crappy cheap desks. They used poor filming. the whole thing reeked of cheap and nasty. They didn't look like the organisation which held the worlds life in its hands..
I don't really have a lot of faith in the WHO. They seem to be under funded and disorganized. I actually think this MERS virus is moving too fast for them to get a handle on it. I believe yesterdays talk was a fence sitting operation just to buy them time.
The following should be the canary down the coal mine. It is for me anyway: as stated above
Five of the six new cases were health workers and the other was a man who came in close contact with someone who had been infected with the disease, which is known as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, or MERS, WHO said
It really strikes me as odd that five of the six cases were health care workers. Yes they are coming into close contact with sick people so they would be more likely to contract the illness. The thing is these cases were either mild or asymptomatic. How many other friends and family members have had minor cases and just go unreported. It seems to me that finding many health care workers getting sick with mild cases but not finding proportionately the same amount of general public who have also had close contact with the sick rings alarm bells!
My suggestion is this virus has vastly many more asymptomatic cases which really tips the scales into Pandemic territory!
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