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H7N9 or MERS? Place your bets here.

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Forum Name: General Discussion
Forum Description: (General discussion regarding the coronavirus pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=30108
Printed Date: March 28 2024 at 3:00am


Topic: H7N9 or MERS? Place your bets here.
Posted By: Guests
Subject: H7N9 or MERS? Place your bets here.
Date Posted: September 11 2013 at 10:03am
Which will be the first to reach the US (assuming either one is not present now) and why in your opinion?



Replies:
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: September 11 2013 at 10:38am
Good question/post.  Should have possibly done a poll. 

I'm guessing MERS first, in November.

H7N9 probably shortly thereafter, maybe December. 

Things could change for a very long time to come this winter.


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Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: September 11 2013 at 10:44am
MERS-Cov
According to the Office of Travel & Tourism Industries close to a million tourist from the Middle Esat visited the U. S. in 2012 and 1.5 million U. S. citizens visited the Middle East. This doesn't even include the business people from hunderds of cities who pass through there on their way here. Now toss in 12,000 american Muslims going to Haj next month and the fact that Flu season really will just be starting. I think Albert is right though, we'll see both soon enough!

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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 11 2013 at 10:56am
Yeah I'm betting MERS since it is by all accounts now being passed around like the common cold. I'd actually be surprised if it wasn't already present in the US.


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: September 11 2013 at 11:05am
You never know with h7n9.  It could be a little more volatile than MERS once the temps drop.  H7N9 will undoubtedly explode this winter, in my opinion.

Both could be somewhat unstoppable once they find the right winter climate. And both might already be capable of sustained/airborne transmission.  Again, it's probably simply the summer months holding them back at the moment.  Although I hope that's not the case, but we're about to find out.


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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 11 2013 at 11:31am
No doubt time will tell Albert. H7N7 isn't anything to sneeze about either. Pardon the pun.


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 11 2013 at 12:46pm
I'm no virology expert. But is recombination a choice?


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: September 11 2013 at 8:55pm
Reassortment you mean?  Recombination sounds like niman.  Although, probably not possible.


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Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: September 12 2013 at 3:42am
H7n9, i would think the air traffic from asia is far more than the haj ,as  it's constant, 

i also think that a Mers vaccine is around the corner, and would be easier to make than a bird flu

 vaccine because it would grow in the eggs  not kill them as its not a bird flu 


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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź––

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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 12 2013 at 3:57am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Reassortment you mean?  Recombination sounds like niman.  Although, probably not possible.


Thanks Albert.

I would say H7N9 then. My reasoning is because of the mortality rates I could find on the CDC. But that said I wish the mortality rates were more current.

If it kills it's victims it will travel less.

H7N9 case-fatality rate of 18.7%


http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/19/7/13-0523_article.htm


MERS COV case-fatality rate: 56%

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6223a6.htm?s_cid=mm6223a6_w




Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 12 2013 at 4:53am
BTW 1918 pandemic case-fatality rates were much lower.
I feel this is the number to watch. The higher the number the more likely it will kill itself off.

1918 pandemic case-fatality rate of 1.66%–2.77%. 

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/19/4/12-0103_article.htm





Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: September 12 2013 at 5:44am
i dont think mortality stat's count at the moment, these victims are getting the very very best care and if

either of these took off wholesale or both together  the stats would be off the scale, especialy if it got

loose in a refugee camp,also there are millions of people on the move right now, all in the middle east,

(might at this stage revise what i said about h7n9)  lol

 we might be in deep mire, soon...........

or maybe not..... this time!!!!!!

watching as ever with interest..........


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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź––

Marcus Aurelius


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 12 2013 at 6:56am
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

i dont think mortality stat's count at the moment, these victims are getting the very very best care and if

either of these took off wholesale or both together  the stats would be off the scale, especialy if it got

loose in a refugee camp,also there are millions of people on the move right now, all in the middle east,

(might at this stage revise what i said about h7n9)  lol

 we might be in deep mire, soon...........

or maybe not..... this time!!!!!!

watching as ever with interest..........



I'm sure the exposure to infection rate comes into play also, but if it kills ya you are far less likely to expose anyone else. Like that old saying....
Dont kill the messenger. LOL


H5N1 cases dropped in 2012, but fatality rate rose.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/04/h5n1-cases-dropped-2012-fatality-rate-rose



Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: September 12 2013 at 3:05pm
it depends how long the virus is contagious before showing signs ,if the incubation period is a month

it will spread a long way , a great virus wont kill you for a while but might spread rapidly so all

of a sudden you got a lot of sick people, and it just would not stop, the health systems would crash and

thats in a 1st world county imagine it in Bombay or Bejing,any other city that the people are jammed in

with no heath system  or Meds to cope ,take a look at the treatment the patients get now times that by

 100's or thousands in a week the system would never cope


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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź––

Marcus Aurelius


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: September 13 2013 at 1:21am
Since the Hadj is mid-october I bet MERS will be in the US earlier then H7N9 (with Chinese new year ?) but that does not mean that MERS will be a bigger problem. The worrie should be that there are so many virusses (H7N9, H3N2 (with H1N1-partsin it), other H7-virusses, H5N1, H1N1pdm, MERS) around and so many people moving around the world as soldier, refugee etc. For economic reasons health in many countries is something people can not spent much money on, making things worse. 

On the other hand there is not always logic in virusses. On the southern hemisfhere flu was not such a big problem last months. Last flu-season on the northerh half of the world was extreme. 

MERS has also shown up in several European countries, Tunesia, Turkey and is not limited to a (flu)season. H7N9 proberbly is more linked to flu-season and only has been found in China (and Hong Kong wich is part of China !)


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Posted By: rickster58
Date Posted: September 13 2013 at 12:18pm
The dominant flu strain in Australia this year has been H7N9.  I think Albert is correct ..... it will explode this year.


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 13 2013 at 3:53pm
Originally posted by rickster58 rickster58 wrote:

The dominant flu strain in Australia this year has been H7N9.  I think Albert is correct ..... it will explode this year.
 
Hey Rickster
 
Where did you get that from?     (The dominant flu strain in Australia this year has been H7N9)
 
Just curious, had not heard of any H7N9 cases outside China really


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 13 2013 at 5:33pm
My bet is MERS first and Pick your flu what ever flavor H5N1 or H7N9 or whatever Mother Nature throws at us. It is a guessing game every year and a crap shoot if the Flu Shot will work!

Like I keep saying Mother Nature is not happy with world population and she will knock it down no matter what shots we have!


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 13 2013 at 6:02pm
Originally posted by rickster58 rickster58 wrote:

The dominant flu strain in Australia this year has been H7N9.  I think Albert is correct ..... it will explode this year.
 
Ah you must be mistaken. There are no reported cases of H7N9 in Australia.


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 14 2013 at 1:57am
I hadn't heard of any H7N9 in Oz either.  That will be a big worry as the Oz and Kiwi populations have extremely low immunity against even common flu viruses!
 
And, yes I do agree that it is MERS that is likely to spread around the world due to Haj.  Then again H7N9 could already be circulating silently and mutating as we speak!


Posted By: CStackDrPH
Date Posted: September 14 2013 at 11:29am
I'm a virologist and epidemiologist, and my guess is for H7N9 to burst onto the global scene in a big way, possibly as a reassorted virus with another circulating strain like H1N1, H7N7 etc.  

Neither virus (H7N9 nor MERS CoV) have proven to be very efficient in human-to-human transmission, so this is the barrier that has to be lept by viral mutation.  I think that H7N9 has a leg-up, since it has been circulating in Chinese wildfowl and domestic fowl extensively.  It might even reassort with a swine flu virus, since swine are the "mixing pot" for reassortment.  

However, the one thing I can tell you is that the experts are usually wrong!  It could be MERS, another flu strain, or even a new actor such as Nipah virus etc.   Just a few mutations and access to transportation (air especially) is key. 

Bats seem to be a key reservoir, this is a good article.  MERS is being transmitted by Egyptian tomb bats, SARS originated in bats and spread to civet cats, and Nipah is a bat disease.   All of us in infectious disease epidemiology are learning many new things every day....emerging infections are both a risk AND an opportunity to learn how to protect against them. 

Be safe, be well, be happy (P.Banks, Yes guitarist RIP)

http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/09/09/bats-nipah-virus-global-pandemic-plague-southeast-asia - http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/09/09/bats-nipah-virus-global-pandemic-plague-southeast-asia


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CRS, DrPH


Posted By: rickster58
Date Posted: September 14 2013 at 2:05pm
Originally posted by Concerned Guest Concerned Guest wrote:

Originally posted by rickster58 rickster58 wrote:

The dominant flu strain in Australia this year has been H7N9.  I think Albert is correct ..... it will explode this year.
 
Hey Rickster
 
Where did you get that from?     (The dominant flu strain in Australia this year has been H7N9)
 
Just curious, had not heard of any H7N9 cases outside China really
 
My bad .... I checked my source and it is H1N1 (AKA Swine Flu) not H7N9 that is doing the rounds here
 


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: September 14 2013 at 6:51pm
I tend to agree with Chuck that h7n9 seems to be rather explosive.  Several studies have come out stating that it's already capable of sustained transmission, although not entirely sure what that means.  Sustained transmission/pandemic may already be a done deal once the temps drop in China.

We'll know in about 45 days the fate of these 2 bugs.


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Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: September 14 2013 at 8:29pm
It's fairly interesting that with the estimated 1,500 - 27,000 probable H7N9 cases that the Chinese were able to contain it, apparently also with the aid of the summer months. That's a sizable outbreak, but who knows what lengths the Chinese went to.   Probably not going to be as lucky fairly soon. 

MERS and H7N9 might go neck to neck on this one.  MERS might reach the U.S. first, but H7N9 could do a lot more damage. 


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Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: September 15 2013 at 9:11am
Chuck nailed it dead on.  A reassortment between h7n9 and h1n1 headed our way?  Makes me also wonder about the 20,000 dead pigs floating in the river in China last February just prior to the h7n9 outbreak.


H7N9 studies flesh out infectivity patterns in humans, pigs


Researchers looking for molecular clues to help global health officials assess the risk from the new H7N9 virus in China reported this week that it is adept at attaching to human lower and upper respiratory tract cells and that it replicates efficiently in swine airway tissues.

In the first study, researchers from Erasmus University Medical Centre in the Netherlands explored airway attachment patterns of two genetically engineered H7 viruses that contained the hemagglutinin of either a Shanghai or Anhui H7N9 strain. They published their findings yesterday in the October issue of the American Journal of Pathology, published by Elsevier.

They used histochemical analysis to examine the patterns of attachment to different types of human airway tissues, and they compared patterns with those seen in other flu viruses that infect humans to different degrees, including H3N2, 2009 H1N1, and H5N1.

Similar to other avian influenza viruses, H7N9 attached more strongly to tissues in the lower than the upper airway, the authors found. But unlike other avian flu viruses, H7N9 had abundant attachments to epithelial cells in the bronchioles and alveoli and attached to a broader range of cell types.

Thijs Kuiken, DVM, PhD, said in an Elsevier press release, “These characteristics fit with increased virulence of these emerging avian H7 viruses compared to that of human influenza viruses.”

Another key finding from the experiments was more concentrated attachment of H7N9 viruses in ciliated cells in the nasal concha, trachea, and bronchi, which hint at the potential for efficient transmission in humans. However, Kuiken said the mainly sporadic pattern of H7N9 infections suggests that the virus hasn’t acquired all the properties it needs for efficient transmission among humans.

He said that though the attachment pattern emerging with the H7N9 virus in China suggests the potential for severe disease and efficient transmission, attachment is only the first step in the virus’ replication cycle and that other steps, as well as the host response, need to be considered to fully gauge the virus's pandemic potential.

In the swine tissue study, researchers wrote that their goal was to see if the H7N9 virus has the potential to infect pigs, which are often in contact with humans and poultry in agricultural and market settings and have been known to play a role in generating further virus adaptations in mammals. The group, including scientists from China, Hong Kong, and St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in the United States, published its findings on Sep 11 in the Journal of Virology.

 â€śThat they may infect swine and generate additional mammalian adaptations is a significant public health concern,” the team wrote. An earlier study by a Chinese team found that H7N9 could infect pigs experimentally, but it didn’t appear to spread to cagemates.

The team noted that swine farm surveillance in China’s outbreak areas has found no H7N9 in more than 4,000 animal or environmental samples.

To further explore H7N9 infectivity pigs, the group used swine respiratory tissue samples (“explants”) to mimic patterns seen in live animals. They noted that the process is less cumbersome and cheaper than using large animals and provides a rapid and more humane way to test larger numbers of influenza viruses.

Testing included three H7N9 strains and three controls, including one not known to infect swine. The three human H7N9 strains replicated efficiently in upper and lower respiratory tissue of pigs.

The findings confirmed that the new H7N9 virus is capable of infecting pigs, which significantly increases the risk of H7N9 outbreaks and the virus's  potential for acquiring mutations or gene segments that could enhance transmissibility in mammals, the team concluded.

They noted that human infections detected in China over the summer show that H7N9 is still circulating, but so far there are no systems in place in northern or eastern China to monitor the virus in pigs.


http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/09/h7n9-studies-flesh-out-infectivity-patterns-humans-pigs



  


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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 15 2013 at 9:19am
You know what's scary about H7N9 besides the fact that the birds don't die so the spread is tougher to see?  The birds are probably less sick and can fly around more thereby spreading it more.


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: September 15 2013 at 9:21am
I thought I remember reading quite a while ago that the 1918 pandemic included two viruses, which was h1n1 and an avian flu virus, which is why wave two was so severe.  This is an old read regarding h5n1, but probably has some a relevance of what we're dealing with regarding h1n1 and h7n9 mixing.  Are we looking at a 1918 replay, but with a more severe strain?


1918 Killer Pandemic Was An Avian Flu

1918 Killer Pandemic Was An Avian Flu

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1813201,00.html" rel="nofollow - A complete recreation of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic flu strain shows that it was an avian flu.

Scientists have re-created the “Spanish flu” virus that killed up to 50 million people in 1918-19 and shown that it shared traits with the H5N1 strain of avian flu.

An analysis of the re-created pathogen has shown that, like its modern cousin, it began as a bird virus and jumped species into humans with mutations that made it peculiarly virulent and lethal.

Dr. Jeffrey Taubenberger of the http://www.afip.org/Departments/cell/Molecular_pathology.html" rel="nofollow - US Armed Forces Institute of Pathology and other scientists have just published papers in Science and Nature demonstrating that http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051004/spanish_flu_051004/20051005?hub=Health" rel="nofollow - the 1918 virus was an avian virus in origins.

"We now think that the best interpretation of the data available to us is that the 1918 virus was an entirely avian-like virus that adapted to humans," Taubenberger told reporters in a telephone briefing.

"It suggests that pandemics can form in more than one way."

http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-10-05-voa30.cfm" rel="nofollow - The more deadly 1918 pandemic virus is unlike the 1957 and 1968 flus in that the 1918 flu did not recombine with human influenza strains. That the 1918 strain did not recombine with human influenza strains and at the same time that it was orders of magnitude more lethal is probably not a coincidence.

"We now think that the 1918 virus was an entirely avian-like virus that adapted to humans," said Mr. Taubenberger. This is a different situation than the last two pandemics we had, the Asian flu in 1957 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968, which are mixtures in which a human-adapted influenza virus acquired two or three new genes from an avian influenza source. So it suggests that pandemics can form in more than one way, and this is a very important point."

He says it also suggests that the current Asian bird flu, known by its scientific designation H5N1, could evolve into a human killer with just a few more mutations that allow it to jump more efficiently among people.

"It suggests to us the possibility that these H5 viruses are actually being exposed to some human adaptive pressures and that they might be acquiring some of these same changes," he added. "In a sense, they might be going down a similar path that ultimately led to 1918."

This is the most important fact here: The 1918 H1N1 influenza virus did not need to co-infect a human and swap genes with a human influenza strain in order to gain the mutations needed to cause a highly lethal human influenza pandemic. That ups the probability that H5N1 could start a human pandemic.

http://www.knoxstudio.com/shns/story.cfm?pk=FLUGENES-10-05-05&cat=AN" rel="nofollow - The scientists took the recreated 1918 virus and performed experiments on it in a CDC Atlanta lab to identify proteins and genes key to its virulence.

"We felt that we had to re-create the virus and run these experiments to understand the biological properties that made the 1918 virus so exceptionally deadly," said Terrance Tumpey, a flu researcher at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and lead author of the Science study. "We wanted to identify the specific genes responsible for virulence, which we feel will advance our ability to prepare vaccines and make antiviral medicines that are effective against future pandemic strains."

Although the genetic data has been made part of a public database, the 10 or so vials of the virus itself - grown in human kidney cells - are contained under tight security guidelines set for potential biological weapons at the CDC's lab in Atlanta.

Fox News has a good article reporting that http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,171329,00.html" rel="nofollow - some of the mutations which H5N1 has already picked up are similar to 1918 H1N1 mutations and probably are moving H5N1 closer to human transmissibility and a human pandemic.

The good news is that the H5N1 flu bug still has a long way to go. The 1918 bug seemed to need several changes in every one of its eight genes. The H5N1 virus is making similar changes but isn't very far along.

"So, for example, in the nuclear protein gene we speculate there are six genes crucial [for human adaptation]," Taubenberger says. "Of those six, three are present in one or another H5N1 strain. But usually there is only one of these changes per virus isolate. That is true of other genes as well. You see four, five, or six changes per gene in the 1918 virus, whereas H5N1 viruses only have one change or so. It shows they are subjected to similar [evolutionary] pressures, but the H5 viruses are early on in this process."

Which H5N1 strains is Taubenberger comparing the 1918 H1N1 strain to? How old are the strains he is comparing to? Has he compared to any H5N1 strains isolated from recent Indonesians who have recently died from bird flu?

H5N1 appears to have picked up important mutations on the road toward human adaptation including one that has made it much more lethal in mice.

There is one ominous sign. It's in a flu gene protein called PB2. A single change in this gene makes H5N1 extremely deadly to mice. The same single change helps bird flu to adapt to mammals.

For example, the change in PB2 was seen in six of the seven H5N1 viruses spreading among captive tigers in Thailand.

Robert Webster of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital showed in a PNAS paper in the summer of 2004 that http://www.americanscientist.org/template/Newsletter?memberid=null&issueid=3131" rel="nofollow - H5N1 has become much more lethal in mice and this is an indicator that H5N1 is becoming better adapted to mammals. Webster also points to http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/pages/events/biosafety/speakers/webster/webster.html" rel="nofollow - an expanded range for H5N1 including tigers and domestic cats. The expanded range gives the virus more ecological niches in which it can further adapt to mammals and pick up more mutations that would help it become transmissible in humans.

Also check out http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol11no05/05-0007.htm" rel="nofollow - a CDC report on possible H5N1 transmission between tigers. I realize some of my readers think I'm being excessively alarmist by writing posts about avian flu. But I just do not see humans as so different from all the other mammals as to think that a virus that is hopping between a bunch of species is going to draw the line and avoid humans. These new reports about the 1918 H1N1 strain which hopped from birds to humans and the parallels with H5N1 strike me as a strong reason not dismiss the threat this virus poses.

The http://www.newscientist.com/" rel="nofollow - New Scientist has a good article on the latest findings. http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8103" rel="nofollow - The 1918 H1N1 virus was less dependent on cellular machinery to replicate.

Meanwhile, Terrence Tumpey at the US Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta and colleagues used the sequences to rebuild the virus itself, and infect mice with it. They report this week that unlike other flu viruses, 1918 does not need a protein-splitting enzyme from its surroundings to replicate, instead using some hitherto-unknown mechanism. And as in 1918, it rapidly destroys lungs (Science, vol 310, p 77).

Pathogens that jump species are a lot more lethal that pathogens that have been transmitted primarily between members of a species for a long time. The knowledge that the 1918 influenza was from birds and had no recombination with human influenza strains should give pause to anyone wondering whether H5N1 poses a serious threat.

Update: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/06/health/06flu.html" rel="nofollow - It probably took only a couple dozen mutation to make the 1918 influenza into a massive killer.

The bird flu viruses now prevalent share some of the crucial genetic changes that occurred in the 1918 flu, scientists said, but not all. The scientists suspect that with the 1918 flu, changes in just 25 to 30 out of about 4,400 amino acids in the viral proteins turned the virus into a killer. The new work also reveals that 1918 virus acts much differently from ordinary human flu viruses. It infects cells deep in the lungs of mice and infects lung cells, like the cells lining air sacs, that would normally be impervious to flu. And while other human flu viruses do not kill mice, this one, like today's bird flus, does.

As these researchers advance along in their work they are going to come up with much better metrics for measuring how far the H5N1 avian flu is from being capable of creating a pandemic in humans.

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/003027.html


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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 15 2013 at 9:37am
I see considerable H7N9 problems re-emerging by Halloween.  Hold onto your hats!


Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: September 15 2013 at 9:55am
Welcome to the forum PortRicheyPat, and I tend to agree with you.  Like I said, MERS might reach the U.S. first, but H7N9 is about to cause a lot more damage, and in a big way.


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Posted By: CStackDrPH
Date Posted: September 15 2013 at 10:31am
Great discussion, everyone!  

The point about the widespread transmission of H7N9 in China is a key point....H7N9 has been identified in wild waterfowl (ducks, swans etc.) and transmitted from this reservoir into the domestic fowl population. 

Chinese farmers do not practice "biosecurity" as is common in Western animal husbandry.  We now recognize that humans can infect our flocks and herds, so domestic swine, poultry etc. are protected by equipping barn-workers with respiratory protection, vaccinations, health monitoring etc.  to protect the livestock!  

Not so in China.  Cages of birds at smaller operations are mounted directly above swine, which then feed upon the bird droppings (yeah, gross!).  Bird mortalities are fed, whole and un-rendered, directly to the swine.  No wonder all of these pandemic strains seem to originate in China!  

To my knowledge, no one has sufficiently explained the massive swine die-off that heralded events.  Was it H7N9, or....?  China blamed "water pollution," uh-huh.  

This is a very good article about MERS as a pandemic candidate: 

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/sep/15/mers-next-global-pandemic" rel="nofollow - http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/sep/15/mers-next-global-pandemic

Because the virus has successfully passed between humans, there is reason to be concerned that it may grow into a pandemic. However, human-to-human transmission is not enough. For a pandemic to occur, each person infected needs to, on average, infect one or more others. So far, this does not appear to be happening. Transmission is the result of biology, social interaction and the environment. Mers may evolve the ability to spread in humans, or already have this ability under some social or climatic conditions. A particular concern is the millions who will converge on Saudi Arabia in mid-October for the hajj.



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CRS, DrPH


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 15 2013 at 2:07pm
With poultry processing getting offshored to china this could speed things up.

Blood samples hint at silent H7N9 in poultry workers

About 6% of poultry workers had antibodies against the new H7N9 virus.A serology study in a Chinese province hit hardest by novel H7N9 influenza found evidence of asymptomatic or mild infections in poultry workers, further strengthening suspicions that poultry are the source of the outbreak.The study focused on members of the general public, poultry workers, and patients with lab-confirmed H7N9 infections in Zhejiang province, which has recorded 45 cases during the outbreak thus far. The Chinese researchers published their findings in the Aug 9 early online edition of the Journal of Infectious Diseases.They collected and analyzed serum samples, along with epidemiologic data, from 1,129 people from three Zhejiang cities in the province that had human H7N9 cases. The group also collected serum samples and nasal swabs from 396 people who had occupational exposure to poultry in districts where human cases had been found.Among poultry workers, 6.3% had antibodies against the new H7N9 virus, based on hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) assay titers of 80 or greater. In contrast, the investigators found no evidence of antibodies in the general population.No viral evidence was found in the workers' nasal swab samples.The results weren't surprising, because a study more than a decade ago in poultry workers showed a similar seroprevalence to avian H7 subtypes, according to the report."Our data support the conclusion that H7N9 virus or a closely related virus is circulating in live poultry markets and that infected poultry is the principal sources for human infections," they wrote.Serum findings in poultry workers also hint that subclinical infections occur. However, the researchers noted that an earlier study using blood samples collected from poultry workers in four provinces found no evidence of H7N9 exposure, suggesting that the workers in Zhejiang only recently developed the antibodies against the virus.The team said it's possible that the H7N9 antibodies they detected in the poultry workers might reflect exposure to other similar H7 avian influenza viruses, including an H7N3 virus that affected ducks in the regions.The lack of findings in the general population could signify that cross-species transmissions are recent and sporadic events, and the ability of H7N9 to spread between humans is so far limited, the team concluded.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/08/blood-samples-hint-silent-h7n9-poultry-workers



Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 15 2013 at 6:15pm
Betting on viruses??

Anyone else think we are being a bit nonchalant about viruses?

Having said that i'd drop $1000 on MERS anyday.





Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 15 2013 at 7:10pm
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

Betting on viruses??

Anyone else think we are being a bit nonchalant about viruses?

Having said that i'd drop $1000 on MERS anyday.



Well hell yeah life is a crap shoot anyway. As for being nonchalant should we hold viruses in reverence and speak of them only in hushed tones in darkened hallways or just be matter of fact and review the information as it becomes available? Viruses adapt to survive, that is all they do 24/7, we should be no different because it is not a matter of if only a matter of when a virulent pandemic strain will come along. Yeah I'd bet on MERS too.LOL


Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: September 16 2013 at 7:44am
Here's something elseto worry about in China!



China’s antibiotics addiction isn’t just afflicting humans; it’s plaguing animals, too.
+


The average Chinese person consumes 10 times more antibiotics than the average American, and a 2012 study found that 98% of patients suffering from the common cold in a children’s hospital in Beijing were prescribed antibiotics. That’s due largely to “significant financial incentives” for doctors (read: kickbacks and other perks for selling drugs), according to a Journal of Health Economics study (pdf).


+


But as Mother Jones flagged today, only half of the 358,800 tonnes (396,000 tons) of antibiotics China consumed in 2012 were consumed by people; the rest was pumped into animals.


+


This is a technique the country likely picked up from Western industrial farmers, as MJ explains. Maximizing meat production requires cramming animals into cramped, germ-ridden living conditions. Antibiotics are needed to keep them healthy enough to end up in somebody’s hot dog bun.


+


But the pupil has become the master; steady industrialization of its farms coupled with weak regulation mean that China now uses four times more antibiotics on animals than does the US.


+


Though the effects aren’t well studied, preliminary research is sufficiently scary. A study published earlier this year compared concentrations of various standalone antibiotic-resistant genes (ARGs) in manure at large-scale pig farms in Beijing, Putian and Jiaxing (the latter is where the country’s famed floating dead pigs came from) with antibiotic-free manure. Overall, the pig farm manure had single ARG concentrations of 192 to 28,000 times that of the control. Counting the ARGs together, the Beijing farm had a concentration that was 121,000 times higher than the control.


+


Much of the 280 million tonnes of pig manure produced in China each year is used as compost and fertilizer, which transfers bacteria to produce that humans ingest. Manure-borne bacteria with ARGs also seep into groundwater that humans consume as drinking water, and find their way into inhaled dust particles. And while bacteria with ARGs don’t necessarily turn bacteria into superbugs, that’s certainly one way they can develop.


+


On top of that, when people eat antibiotics-treated pigs, or chicken, the meat carries a low dose of antibiotics, which can boost the resistance of bacteria they are exposed to.


+


Heavy use of antibiotics in China’s healthcare system has already taken its toll, despite recent efforts to address the problem. For instance, together with India, China accounts for half the cases of tuberculosis that several types of antibiotics can’t touch (medical professionals call this “multi-drug resistant,” or MDR, TB for short).


+




The effects of China’s antibiotics craze have global implications. Here’s a chart based on European Union patient survival rates of infections from antibiotic-resistant strains, compared with survival rates of patients with infections that remain sensitive to drugs:


+



​reactgroup.org

Given how quickly and easily bacteria spread across continents, China’s antibiotics binge no doubt exacerbates bacterial resistance in the EU, and around the world


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Buy more ammo!


Posted By: CStackDrPH
Date Posted: September 16 2013 at 7:57am
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

Betting on viruses??

Anyone else think we are being a bit nonchalant about viruses?

Having said that i'd drop $1000 on MERS anyday.




The director of CDC will meet your bet on H7N9!

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/09/16/a-scarier-bird-flu-cdc-chief-warns-of-looming-h7n9-threat.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/09/16/a-scarier-bird-flu-cdc-chief-warns-of-looming-h7n9-threat.html

Centers for Disease Control Director Thomas Frieden outlined the looming crises in a talk this week, focusing on awareness and prevention while still name-dropping a lot of scary stuff: the plague, bird flu, and killer measles. It was not a day for germophobes.




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CRS, DrPH


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 17 2013 at 8:46am
In light of all this, still find it odd that that the WHO is all over MERS, well maybe not so much these days, and they mention nothing about H7N9.  Same old thing with Margaret Chan and her beloved China.  She is very fast to mention MERS is a threat to the entire world, and then applauds China on their handling of H7N9 and doesn't recognize it as being a threat whatsoever. 




Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: September 17 2013 at 10:21am
I should also add with regard to MERS that it's a little strange that we saw a rather large spike in cases over the last couple weeks, and now no new cases.  My guess is that significant under-reporting has begun due to Hajj approaching.  Hajj has got to be one of the most ridiculous and archaic rituals of the 21st century, bordering on lunacy. 


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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk


Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: September 17 2013 at 11:20am

Some of them have crossed that border!

You've hit the nail on the head! Here's a story from the Saudi Gazette (Run by the ruling family).
They ran it right after Ramadan.

No MERS cases during Ramadan

Last updated: Wednesday, August 14, 2013 1:17 AM

RIYADH – A large influx of Umrah pilgrims and visitors during the holy month of Ramadan passed without any cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) or any other epidemics reported, Health Minister Dr. Abdullah Al-Rabeeah said here on Tuesday.

He said that more than five million pilgrims and visitors were present in the Kingdom during Ramadan that began on July 10 and ended on Wednesday. Of whom only 200,000 remain in the Kingdom.

Al-Rabeeah said the ministry extended medical services to 146,594 pilgrims through its health establishments in Makkah and Madinah during the holy month.

The coronavirus has killed 46 of the 94 people confirmed infected since September worldwide, most of them in Saudi Arabia. — SG

Funny right after Ramadan there was a huge spike in reports and now that Haj is coming up nothing!


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Buy more ammo!


Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: September 17 2013 at 1:32pm

The madness begins!


JAKARTA: Indonesia's first group of haj pilgrims has departed for Saudi Arabia, leaving from 10 airports across the country.

But unlike previous years, a deadly new virus from Saudi Arabia known as the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus is threatening the health of millions of Muslim pilgrims.

168,000 Indonesian pilgrims are heading to the holy Muslim city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia.


According to Indonesian Health Ministry estimates, 75 per cent of them are susceptible to the deadly MERS virus.


Half of these pilgrims are over the age of 60.


And a quarter of them have pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, hypertension or heart disease, making them more susceptible to contracting the MERS virus.


Medical specialists are struggling to understand the deadly virus and for now there is still no vaccine.


To date, 100 people in the Middle East have contracted the virus, which experts believe originated from bats.


Dr Slamet, the director of disease control and environmental health in the Indonesian Health Ministry, said: "Since the MERS coronavirus was found in Saudi Arabia, the Indonesian government was aware of the problem.


“It's not only the health of haj pilgrims that we need to worry about, but also umrah pilgrims and many of our migrant workers. The possibility of human-to human transfer is high, so the government has alerted our provincial health offices as well as our integrated health service units."


The MERS virus is considered a cousin of the SARS virus, which erupted in Asia in 2003, killing 9 per cent of its victims.


Almost half of all who have contracted the coronavirus have died.


In light of this, health officials have briefed the accompanying medical team as well as pilgrims on what everyone should be sensitive to in terms of warning signs and symptoms.


Aside from eating healthy food and staying hydrated, pilgrims were briefed on how they can protect themselves while moving in large crowds.


Latifah, a haj pilgrim, said: "As a pilgrim, I'm very worried because I heard it spreads through one's eyes."


Another haj pilgrim, Sugeng, said: "I'll accept my fate and try to keep my stamina, eat and rest well.


“Although we are carrying out a religious duty, we need to rest so we will be ready when we need to carry out our most important haj rites."


Pilgrims have also been given face masks and some medication to treat light ailments.


While the government has sponsored mandatory meningitis vaccinations, pilgrims have been advised to get their own flu and pneumonia shots.


Monitoring returning pilgrims has also been made a priority, and health authorities have installed thermal scanners at airports to detect fever among pilgrims.


Health officials will also measure pilgrims' temperatures on their way back to the haj dormitories.


Those showing flu symptoms within two weeks of returning home are being urged to report to the nearest health clinic.


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Buy more ammo!


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: September 20 2013 at 3:05pm
and how long is the incubation period for Mers  before people start getting sick , i think about 4 weeks

forgive me if thats wrong ,but can you imagine how far this could spread in 4 weeks??????


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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź––

Marcus Aurelius


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: September 23 2013 at 5:46pm
I'm going w/MERs in late November but in 1-3 isolated cases.


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2014 at 3:35pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Good question/post.  Should have possibly done a poll. 

I'm guessing MERS first, in November.

H7N9 probably shortly thereafter, maybe December. 

Things could change for a very long time to come this winter.


Winner, winner chicken dinner. MERS was first just 6 months latter than you thought.


Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: May 14 2014 at 5:15pm
MERS may be kicking up more cases, but H7N9 isn't finished yet!  There are lots of chickens in China!

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90882/8626246.html - http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90882/8626246.html

MERS is looking like it has taken the lead in the race, let's wait and see how these evolve.  Pretty exciting times for someone like me who is in the field of virology!  Also, the ebola outbreak in Guinea seems to have burned itself out.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_05_012_ebola/en/ - http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_05_012_ebola/en/


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CRS, DrPH


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2014 at 9:25pm
MERS is here first we have 3 cases and we don't know how many more will be popping up.

When we look at the original question,"Which will be the first to reach the US (assuming either one is not present now) and why in your opinion?" MERS wins!



Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: May 14 2014 at 9:27pm
Chuck- I agree with you but the original question was:

"Which will be the first to reach the US (assuming either one is not present now) and why in your opinion?"

Albert wins!

If the question had been which scares you more, there would be no question in my mind!

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Buy more ammo!



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