basis http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2016/08/arctic-sea-ice-getting-terribly-thin.html" rel="nofollow - http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2016/08/arctic-sea-ice-getting-terribly-thin.html , http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/p/the-mechanism.html" rel="nofollow - http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/p/the-mechanism.html ,
I do not have a scientific background, this theory is not meant to put people in depression but to make them think.
We are already in Abrupt Climate change. The last months and years all were warmer than normal on a global scale, most of the time records were broken. Climate change is a chain-reaction with feedbacks that influence the proces.
The temperature-rise is not spread even-the poles are warming much faster than other area's. This has to do with both the gulfstream transporting warmer ocean water, warmer rivers wich bring warmer water to the Arctic, warmer air pushud towards the poles by more storms. Also more open water means that sunlight is not reflected by ice but water is reabsorbing the heat from the sun.
In the Arctic rising temperatures effect the soil. Perma-frost is defrozen, seabed is no longer covered by ice. Both means methane gets released. Methane traps warmth stronger than "air" does, so an increase of methane (and CO, CO2 etc) means a temperature rise.
The amount of methane and other "greenhouse gas" that can be released is that large that it dwarfs the production of human made greenhouse gasses. Yet we unlocked the proces, started the chain-reaction.
The further the temperatures rise the more methane (etc) is released. At a certain point I expect that the release can become more violent, explosive.
The proces of melt, warming in the (ant)arctic will cause more air to move towards the poles-more and stronger storms. A proces wich will widen further the inflow of heat towards the poles-from deep seawater, surface sea water, also now the air at all levels will warm up.
This will increase the melt in both Greenland and the Antarctic-allthough that melt could cool seawater the influx of warmth will get that strong the cooling effect will not last long. Landmasses will start rising with the release of pressure from the (land)ice wich will bring further release of methane, CO(2) etc, volcanic reactions, earthquakes etc.
The process-escalation will be a proces of months, maybe even weeks, once a treshold is passed. Such a tipping point could be an ice-free Arctic but large wildfires producing a lot of carbon, methane and warmth (also via rivers going into the Arctic ocean).
A particle of methane can absorp up to 105 times the amount of heat (for a short term) as a particle of oxygen. You need a moment of "ignition" to start the proces.
Further temperature rise is caused by nuclear waste in a.o. Greenland supposed to be covered by ice. Also in the Pacific sealevel-rise will mean that storagesites for nuclear waste end up under water. Above that several reactors keep leeking large amounts of radio-activity (= producing warmth) into the oceans. (Not only Fukushima but other sites in Japan, North Korea, the US, France etc.)
The "hockystick model" is making clear that feedback-loops will cause escalating temperature rise. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph" rel="nofollow - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph .
Faster rising sealevels, stronger storms, larger wildfires, bigger droughts will effect nuclear plants. Fukushima is only the beginning.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
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