Local transmission of Zika will start in Texas in approx 30 days.
Normally this wouldn't be much of a concern except for pregnant women or
those looking to start a family. People should understand that based
on a recent study, in many cases adults may suffer from potential brain
damage as time progresses. Miami will be up to around 400 cases next
month.
How Big, Really, Is The Zika Outbreak In Florida?
A plane sprays pesticide over the Wynwood neighborhood of
Miami on Aug. 6. That's just one way health officials are battling back
Zika-carrying mosquitoes in the area.
As expected, the Zika outbreak in Florida is growing — though how fast is still difficult to say. State and federal health officials say
mosquitoes are spreading Zika in two neighborhoods of Miami, including
Miami Beach. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/08/19/490633779/new-zika-outbreak-hits-popular-tourist-destination-of-miami-beach" rel="nofollow - told pregnant women Friday not to go into these neighborhoods — and to consider postponing travel to all parts of Miami-Dade County. Just 37 people have been http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/zika-virus/" rel="nofollow - reported to have caught the virus in these neighborhoods so far. But
many scientists are concerned that the outbreak in Florida may be
larger and more widespread than the number of cases suggests. "Zika is one of those diseases that is always like an iceberg — you just see the tip," says http://www.mobs-lab.org/alessandro-vespignani.html" rel="nofollow - Alessandro Vespignani , a computer scientist at Northeastern University in Boston, who has been tasked with modeling the spread of the virus. Most
people who get Zika don't even know they have it, Vespignani explains.
About 4 in 5 people don't have any symptoms, he says. And those who do
get sick often have only mild symptoms that could be confused with the
flu. So only about 5 percent of cases get detected, Vespignani has http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/06/07/056648" rel="nofollow - found . To
get better estimates of the number of silent infections in Miami and
beyond, Vespignani and his colleagues built computer models that http://www.zika-model.org/files/projectedZikaContinentalUS.pdf" rel="nofollow - estimate how the virus is likely to spread. "We estimate there will be 395 infected people by Sept. 15 [in Florida]," says http://biostat.ufl.edu/about/people/faculty/longini-ira/" rel="nofollow - Ira Longini , a biostatistician at the University of Florida, who collaborates with Vespignani. About
80 of those people will show symptoms, Longini estimates. And about
eight pregnant women are likely to get infected during their first
trimester — which would put their fetuses at risk for microcephaly. The
number of Zika cases in Florida will very likely continue to rise until
October or November, when cooler weather stops the mosquitoes, Longini
says, though a number of variables could speed the spread before that. "For
example, on Monday the University of Florida opens its first day of
classes," he says. "Tens of thousands of students will be coming from
the Miami area, as well as from all over Latin America. So we could see a
burst of cases by mid-September here in Gainesville." Because of these uncertainties, many doctors around the country are http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/08/01/488276350/with-zika-in-miami-what-should-pregnant-women-across-the-u-s-do" rel="nofollow - recommending that their pregnant patients — and those trying to get pregnant — not travel to southern Florida. And Florida isn't the only place in the continental U.S. at risk. Longini
has used the computer models to predict where Zika could show up next
in the States. He says the big concern is Texas — which has roughly a 25
percent chance of having a small outbreak in the next month, according
to the models. "I would not be surprised if we see cases in Texas and Louisiana," https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/directors/biography/pages/biography.aspx" rel="nofollow - Dr. Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dr-anthony-fauci-gulf-states-risk-zika-outbreak/story?id=41538806" rel="nofollow - told ABC News Sunday, citing the flooding in Louisiana as something Zika watchers will be keeping an eye on. "There's
going to be a lot of problems getting rid of standing water [there],"
Fauci says — puddles where Zika-carrying mosquitoes could breed and
thrive. http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/08/22/490941346/how-big-really-is-the-zika-outbreak-in-florida
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