Printed From: Avian Flu Talk
Category: Off Topic Forum
Forum Name: Talk about anything
Forum Description: (In other news... current events happening now)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=36144 Printed Date: April 23 2024 at 1:52pm
Topic: sealevelrisePosted By: Dutch Josh
Subject: sealevelrise
Date Posted: January 15 2017 at 10:06pm
https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/01/15/the-coast-is-toast-faster-and-faster-global-sea-level-rise/" rel="nofollow - https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/01/15/the-coast-is-toast-faster-and-faster-global-sea-level-rise/ In his presentation Paul Beckwith mentions the very likely 7 meter sealevelrise by 2070. Most of the sealevelrise has to do with temperature; warmer water expands.
From 1.4 mm rise in the 20th century as an average the increase reached 3mm sealevelrise in 2010, now stands at 3.4 mm per year and the rise is going exponential. (This means double within a certain timeframe-1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128 etc.as an average growth)
In my (DJ) opinion abrupt climate change means abrupt sealevelrise. (This means that in that certain timeframe it could go like 1,2,8,,16,64,200 mm rise in a short timeframe-years, maybe a few decades).
Methanelevels are going up explosive in (a.o) the Arctic=temperature will rise much faster (methane can store heat 105 times more than co2 in a short-20 year (?) period-20x more than co2 in a 100 year timeframe-at the end methane ends up as co2)
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Replies: Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 15 2017 at 10:53pm
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/01/13/the-human-world-has-never-experienced-a-time-when-global-sea-ice-was-so-weak-and-reduced/" rel="nofollow - https://robertscribbler.com/2017/01/13/the-human-world-has-never-experienced-a-time-when-global-sea-ice-was-so-weak-and-reduced/ Loss of sea-ice means land-ice may slide into the ocean. It does not have to melt-it will melt in the ocean-rising the sealevel in an abrupt way.
Also not included in meltratio's is the level of radio-activity on the poles. ( http://www.rense.com/general10/dsd.htm" rel="nofollow - http://www.rense.com/general10/dsd.htm ) Radioactivity=heat. Nuclear testing and accidents means release of radioactivity-this accumulates in polar regions via water and airflows.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: January 16 2017 at 7:48pm
^Being Dutch, you have intimate knowledge of the sea and its force upon the land!!
As the oceans warm, they expand, so global warming increases sea level regardless of adding more volume from melting ice.
It is raining in Chicago today, when normally it would be about 0ºF/ -17.7ºC right now! I like to sit on the ice of local lakes and fish through the ice, and have done this for over 40 years. It is becoming increasingly more difficult with each passing season.
------------- CRS, DrPH
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 17 2017 at 7:36am
The amount of energy to turn ice into water is the same amount that heats up the same amount of water to 80C. http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/01/global-sea-ice-extent-falling-off-chart.html" rel="nofollow - http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/01/global-sea-ice-extent-falling-off-chart.html Sea-ice is at record low-meaning seawater will warm more. https://summitcountyvoice.com/2017/01/08/ocean-layering-around-antarctica-could-signal-major-meltdown/" rel="nofollow - https://summitcountyvoice.com/2017/01/08/ocean-layering-around-antarctica-could-signal-major-meltdown/
According to the article a new el nino is on is way. This would rise " temperature 2,5C compared to end 2016" . Sam Carana draws the conclusion that "atmosphere temperature will rise over 10C/18F by 2026". See also http://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/01/16/global-sea-ice-hits-lowest-levels-probably-millenia" rel="nofollow - http://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/01/16/global-sea-ice-hits-lowest-levels-probably-millenia (DJ: if I get that correct he is expecting temperatures to be 4C above the 1880 average by july 2017. If things would develop that way-with the extreme low sea-ice-ratio-this will bring abrupt sea-level-rise in the short term and speeding up climate escalation dramaticly. I hope Sam Carana is not correct on this. We are talking about all life on the planet being in extreme danger).
There are 450 nuclear plants, over 1200 storage facilities-but also 180 nuclear reactors on 140 ships.... http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/non-power-nuclear-applications/transport/nuclear-powered-ships.aspx" rel="nofollow - http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/non-power-nuclear-applications/transport/nuclear-powered-ships.aspx . Another Fukushima-or several-is just a matter of time. Sealevelrise, earthquakes, superstorms (all climate change related) will show "how safe nuclear energy is".
To get more info on methane, co(2) etc http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/index.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/index.html Methane levels in the Arctic are above 2000 ppb-should be 1250 ppb. Most likely methane is coming up (in exponential growing amounts-ultimately proberbly "explosive") from the seafloor etc. Permafrost is defrozen, seaice is not covering the seafloor-warmer temperatures mean methane is released. Methane can contain-on the short term-105 times as much energy as the same amount CO2.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/giant-iceberg-poised-to-break-off-from-antarctic-shelf-larsen-c" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/giant-iceberg-poised-to-break-off-from-antarctic-shelf-larsen-c In what way climate change major events will disrupt the economy is a matter of discussion. But we live in a fantasyworld-the "markets" are based on unrealistic expectations of future profit. "Peak-market" ?
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Satori
Date Posted: January 17 2017 at 9:06am
the Republicans in my state don't believe in global warming or sea level rise they pretty much have made it illegal with some foolish laws LMAO !
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 17 2017 at 10:52pm
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/01/17/real-science-northeast-u-s-temperatures-are-decades-ahead-of-global-average/" rel="nofollow - http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/01/17/real-science-northeast-u-s-temperatures-are-decades-ahead-of-global-average/ Average temperature rise may mean large regional differences. Some areas may even face temparatures stabil/drop-while other areas see +3c on a global average of 2C temperaturerise.
Paul Beckwith did put part3 and 4 of his presentation on sealevelrise on you-tube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxYN7hZ6fUQ" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxYN7hZ6fUQ and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_oK29dt0YU&t=629s" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_oK29dt0YU&t=629s Melt of ice would cause a sea-level-rise of 7meters (50% coming of Greenland wich would mean that half of the land-ice of Greenland would melt, the other 50% would be 25% West- and 25% East-Antarctica.)by 2070-in his view. Because of the ice-melt global average temperatures could even drop below the 1880-1920 average temperature.
DJ-I think excluded in these models are methane levels exploding, also nuclear disasters with that kind of sealevelrise, superstorms etc. are impossible to avoid. (On nuclear polution see this 100 page Norwegian PDF file:///home/chronos/u-4f3dcb45ba2aa7585c9d6f5ae2aca3aa0e822cec/Downloads/aar2015-radio.pdf.pdf" rel="nofollow - file:///home/chronos/u-4f3dcb45ba2aa7585c9d6f5ae2aca3aa0e822cec/Downloads/aar2015-radio.pdf.pdf from the Arctic Monitoring and Assesment Program)
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 20 2017 at 6:49am
Even without El Nino 2015 and 2016 were record breaking hot http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/01/2016-temperature-records/" rel="nofollow - http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/01/2016-temperature-records/
2014, 2015, 2016 all did break records http://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/scientists-officially-declare-2016-hottest-year-record-chris-mooney-the-washington-post/" rel="nofollow - http://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/scientists-officially-declare-2016-hottest-year-record-chris-mooney-the-washington-post/
Larsen-C Antarctic peninsula keeps breaking up http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-38686626" rel="nofollow - http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-38686626
DJ; of course president Trump, just like new elected leaders-this year in Europe-will have to deal with climate change, even if they do not believe in it. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/20/china-eyes-an-opportunity-to-take-ownership-of-climate-change-fight" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/20/china-eyes-an-opportunity-to-take-ownership-of-climate-change-fight Climate change is self-evident; it will expres itself in rising sealevels (via) stronger storms, earthquakes and tsunami's. Fossil fuel is old and expensive https://robertscribbler.com/2017/01/19/kauai-shows-solar-storage-is-starting-to-become-cost-competitive-with-fossil-fuels-nuclear/" rel="nofollow - https://robertscribbler.com/2017/01/19/kauai-shows-solar-storage-is-starting-to-become-cost-competitive-with-fossil-fuels-nuclear/ .
Renewable energy is the future. The US and EU have everything needed to play a major role in new energy developments.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2017/jan/20/writing-about-climate-change-my-professional-detachment-has-finally-turned-to-panic?CMP=share_btn_fb" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2017/jan/20/writing-about-climate-change-my-professional-detachment-has-finally-turned-to-panic?CMP=share_btn_fb How much we can save, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change?CMP=share_btn_fb" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change?CMP=share_btn_fb (10% of the global population is causing 50% of the emissions) wether we are simply to late to act-the future will tell.
http://www.thecvf.org/web/climate-vulnerable-forum/cvf-participating-countries/" rel="nofollow - http://www.thecvf.org/web/climate-vulnerable-forum/cvf-participating-countries/ The poor countries wich did not cause climate change are paying the highest price. If there has to be serious international justice climate change is international crime.
https://www.wunderground.com/news/severe-weather-forecast-south-high-risk-tornadoes-january-2017?__prclt=AA9PGP5d" rel="nofollow - https://www.wunderground.com/news/severe-weather-forecast-south-high-risk-tornadoes-january-2017?__prclt=AA9PGP5d (Tornados in januari-all the way to Florida....)
Paul Beckwith: https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith/status/823629599720488961/photo/1?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=PaulHBeckwith&utm_content=823629599720488961" rel="nofollow - https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith/status/823629599720488961/photo/1?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=PaulHBeckwith&utm_content=823629599720488961
(temperature rise last 3 years was 0,4 C-exponential coming 1,5 year +0.4, then 9 months for 0,4 then 4,5 months for 0,4 extra (cummulitive=1,2 C extra above the 2013 temperature that was already 1 C above the 1850 (or so) baseline=+2.2 C above the 1850 baseline spring 2018. DJ)
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 24 2017 at 1:33pm
From his facebookpage https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva?fref=nf&pnref=story" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva?fref=nf&pnref=story (DJ: I do not know if his calculations are correct. I did see another model indicating that we are now in the exponential phase of climate-change. There are several indicators. Trump etc. can deny climate change-climate change is self-evident and will show itself in a very strong form-with many faces (wildfires, superstorms, extreme rains etc-sealevelrise). Politics have failed so far-the shore has to stop the ship ?)
Joe Neubarth:
2040 ppb or 2 ppm. If the GWP (GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL) of methane is 200. and with that methane in the atmosphere we have now doubled the effects of CO2. CO2 is at 416 with a GWP of ONE. 416 X 1 = 416.
Methane is at 2.04 ppm with a GWP of 200 = 408.
408 + 416 = 824 not counting the effects of the other dozen greenhouse gases.
That would definitely force the oceans to release tremendous quantities of stored up heat as we have witnessed in the past year. We know it happens because we have seen it with our own eyes.
That, in addition to the atmospheric heating effects of the CO2 and Methane and Nitrous Oxide and the water vapor and the other greenhouse gases. We are in a hell of a mess. For the uneducated who do not have even elementary school science understanding, it would be a whole lot easier if it was just CO2.
CO2 has taken us this far. The other greenhouse gases are now staged to destroy the planet.
Though we probably will not go Venus, it is going to seem like it in just a few years.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 24 2017 at 7:34pm
Here is the problem as I see it for what it is worth...nothing. We have London in a SMOG that is really bad, China has so much pollution that it is shameful (my husband was there and was a witness), then we have all the third world countries trying to be America and they has huge amounts of pollution.
Then you have all of the Hollywood/Soros people flying in their private planes, 10,000 sq ft homes, along with their 2nd, 3rd and 4th homes around the world gee what is their carbon foot print.
Russia, Europe, India are just as bad as all of us. India due to population alone!
Then the liberals/Hollywood people want to blame middle class Americans for all of the Global Warming! The liberals want to make sure middle class Americans do not have jobs, so they send all the pollution to Mexico and more to China and any other place so they don't have to "see it" in America.
Gee and then you wonder why Trump is President Trump.
Yes, we have global warming Yes, CO2 is bad but NO country is going to stop it! It is called GREED by mostly the very wealthy, like Soros, Gates, Buffet, and the rest of the really truly wealthy.
So you people on this forum can write your treatises and complain and wring your hands but none of this will matter. People will do what they have always done try to make a living for their families, live a good life and if we screw it up oh well.
What we all know on this forum is that all of this could end with a virus that kills most of us, or a sun spot that goes wild hits us and puts us back to the dark ages, a meteor that we did not see coming that does to us what it did to the dinosaurs, or something else we don't see coming but kills most of us.
So I live my life happy every day, try to be nice to all people including liberals who are so full of hate they would not let 5 year olds take home a Scholastic News which had our new President's photo on the front to tell children about an inauguration because they hate our President so much. I also try to do God's will in my life so that when I do leave this earth I hope to get to heaven. I hope you all do the same.
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 24 2017 at 9:53pm
FluMom, let me react on your views.
-You are correct in saying that a small group of people have extreme ecological footprints. I did read that 10% of the (world ?) population is causing 50% of the polution.
-Hating Trump is not going to help. He is the US president and thereby in a position to make changes. In my opinion-and as far as I can see-some of Trumps decisions may be good, some "shortsighted".
-When 8 men claim to own as much as the poorest half of the world-population that is the outcome of globelizing trade. With slowing down Trans Pacific Partnership, NAFTA, TTIP etc. he may be doing something to get some balance.
-On the other hand spending-cuts on climatescience during a climatecrises in my opinion is like driving a car with your eyes closed because there is fog outside. The risks are there-you choose to ignore them.
Climatechange is man-made mostly. It is not a meteorite from out of space, some super-virus, not a flesh-eating-multi-resistant-bacteria. Even those risks mankind has an obligation to minimize damage. When humans are the major cause of a problem-in my view-we owe it to ourselves, to the poor who did not cause the problem yet do pay the price, to our kids, next generations, to limit the damage we are doing to the climate.
As we all know here on this forum live is short-we all going to die. But this forum also is about how to deal with the dangers live offers us.
"If we screw it up oh well" is not what I want to tell the next generation.
I agree with you that the problem may be out of human control. I also agree with you that Soros, Gates, Buffet (Gore, Clinton, Bush etc.) spoke words that did not cover their actions. It is not just Exxon-ceo 's who are to blame. Trump is a symptom of a proces gone wrong over decades.
I live in the Netherlands, we have our own Trump. I do not blame people for voting on him. I try to understand why they do it. The frustrations of decades in wich politicians-in the name of the people-made decissions against those people are the cause of Trump etc.
I hope Trump will be in a better position than Obama (or Clinton) to deal with the unfolding climatecrises giving floods in California, winter tornado's in the US south east. Much more on its way...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 29 2017 at 10:07pm
From Joe Neubarth his facebook-account https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/posts/10211336640629266" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/posts/10211336640629266 :
The prognosticators of Global Heating doom are arguing that human extinction could occur within 18-42 months from now, based on the most likely event of a massive methane release in the Arctic region anytime in the next three years.
If you have been reading my posts I expect the Methane will cause it, but I am looking six or seven years out.
This methane release will be due to the warming of the major oceans of the world that have, in turn, warmed the Arctic Ocean. Under the Arctic Ocean stand thousands of billions of tons of Methane Clathrates (Methane Gas encapsulated in ice crystals).
https://goodmenproject.com/featured-content/fukushima-and-climate-change-lbkr/" rel="nofollow - https://goodmenproject.com/featured-content/fukushima-and-climate-change-lbkr/ Kevin Hester: The perfect storm of runaway abrupt climate change, an acidifying ocean killing the oceanic reef systems and three coriums at Fukushima Daiichi bleeding ionising radiation into the atmosphere above and due to the 3 coriums now bathing in arterial water below the plants, leaking an uncertain number of 100's of tonnes of contaminated water below into the Pacific.
Very depressing; http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html the several feedbacks causing abrupt climate change (Warmer Arctic Colder Continents but later on global warming escalating)
The links above do not mention that abrupt climate change=abrupt sealevelrise. Proberbly in the coming years-not decades.
Just like economic crises came as a surprise for most of the experts, abrupt climate change may go much faster than the main stream experts now forecast. Politics are miles behind the facts and unable to change course.
https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/01/29/weighing-solar-radiation-management-options/" rel="nofollow - https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/01/29/weighing-solar-radiation-management-options/ and https://www.facebook.com/mhhensel" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/mhhensel are looking for ways to avoid total disaster. https://robertscribbler.com/2017/01/25/chilean-wildfires-are-worst-to-ever-strike-the-country/" rel="nofollow - https://robertscribbler.com/2017/01/25/chilean-wildfires-are-worst-to-ever-strike-the-country/ Robert Scribler describing unfolding climate change related disasters....
With more "Trumps" getting power in Europe this year, public denial of the problems, the outlook gets very dark.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 31 2017 at 2:39am
(DJ: In his video Paul Beckwith brings up the idea of exponential searise. A sealevelrise of 7 meters by 2070, 3,5 meters 2063, 1,875 meter in 2056, 0,9 meter in 2049, 0,45 meter in 2042, 0,225 meter in 2035, 0,1125 meter in 2028, 0,05 meter in 2021-at present sealevelrise is 3,4mm (0,0034m) per year, in the eighties it was 2mm (0,002m) per year. Extreme large tsunami's can cause sealevelrise in an explosive way. Sea-ice is now keeping land-ice in place. But the break down of sea-ice (Larsen-C etc) will cause a new "ice-balance" in wich land-ice (via glaciars, but also (at low tide) breaking of of large pieces of ice above water drops in the ocean causing waves never seen before in human history.)
Complete loss of Arctic sea ice & snow cover year-round. Country-sized glaciers from Greenland & Antarctica crashing into the oceans causing massive tsunamis & raising sea-levels by at least 10 feet by 2050 & 25 feet by 2070. Reversal of wind & water flows at the North Pole Ocean. Huge storms. More often. Lasting longer. Crop failures & global mayhem.
A sci-fi disaster movie plot? NO. Our planet in a decade or so…
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 02 2017 at 10:02pm
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/02/02/antarctic-sea-ice-likely-to-hit-new-all-time-record-lows-over-coming-days/" rel="nofollow - https://robertscribbler.com/2017/02/02/antarctic-sea-ice-likely-to-hit-new-all-time-record-lows-over-coming-days/ Ant-arctis sea-ice at record low with warm storms moving both to the Arctic and Ant-arctic. Sea-ice is keeping land-ice in its positions. Antarctica is showing more and more Greenland-like melting according to one of the comments on Robert Scriblers latest article :
Shawn Redmond
/ https://robertscribbler.com/2017/02/02/antarctic-sea-ice-likely-to-hit-new-all-time-record-lows-over-coming-days/#comment-106935" rel="nofollow - February 3, 2017
Crazy warmth at both poles. There are two shots from Worldview in Antarctica that are both at about 2000 +/- metres elevation and 200 +/- kms inland that show melt on the down slope of exposed mountain tops. The first link is over looking the Riiser-Larsen Ice shelf and the second is looking over the Amery. These places are across the continent from each other and triangulate with the Ross. This anomaly is continent wide at this point. The melt here is happening stunningly fast. If this keeps up over the next few years it will be looking more like Greenland. A really f@#$ing big Greenland. https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-02&z=3&v=-275817.66456041037,1654602.6948325734,-9833.664560410369,1826122.6948325734" rel="nofollow - https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-02&z=3&v=-275817.66456041037,1654602.6948325734,-9833.664560410369,1826122.6948325734
When also taking into account further elements that could cause warming, a potential warming of 10°C (18°F) could eventuate by the year 2026, i.e. within about nine years from now, as discussed at the http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html" rel="nofollow - extinction page and as illustrated by the image below, from the http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/temperature.html" rel="nofollow - Temperature page .
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html" rel="nofollow - Climate Plan .
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 04 2017 at 9:48pm
On methane http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.nl/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html" rel="nofollow - http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.nl/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: February 04 2017 at 11:20pm
Dutch Josh wrote:
On methane http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.nl/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html" rel="nofollow - http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.nl/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html
Wow, Josh. That makes for a really depressing read
------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 06 2017 at 12:19am
Jacksdad, could not agree more....
I find it depressing for lots of reasons;
-Politics is (at best) focussing on CO2 while the main problems now are shifting towards other green-house-gasses. (Methane, N20, watervapor etc) Denial of climatechangeproblems has been going on for over a century; in the 19th century there already were scientists and politicians warning for population growth, deforestation/landuse, excessive mining, over-industrialization etc. but they were/are ignored.
-climate change is complicated bad news people do not want to hear. Exponential growth (opposite to linear growth) is a bit of thinking (but when I can understand it, most people can). (For example sealevelrise was linear 0,2 cm per year since the last ice-age. It is going exponential doublingtime 7 years on average-so after 7 years it would be 0,4 cm, after 14 years it would be 0,8 cm, after 21 years it would be 1,6 cm, 28y=3,2cm,35y=7.4cm,42y=14,8cm,49y=29,6cm-within 50 years in stead of 50x0,2cm=10cm rise it would accumulate to over 1 meter with 56y=60cm, 63y=1,2m, 70y=2,4m per year sealevelrise-put together by then a total of 10meter sealevelrise in the exponential modus).
-Science itself is running behind the facts. Politics may think it is a minute before 12, some scientists believe it is 1 A.M. for avoiding major disaster, other scientists gave up al hope. Ideas of a nuclear(war) winter to re-freeze the Arctic are very unrealistic since the main cause of global warming is in processes from the earth-atmosphere itself. (As far as I understand, nuclear weapons would increase sharply green house gas emissions, and above that start several hundreds of Fukushima's. Nuclear energy has become a feed back in the global warming proces it self-no way that it could form a solution).
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 06 2017 at 1:09am
I remember 30 years ago reading that melting permafrost and the methane released would be trouble,the government's are not bothered,even if we ceased carbon emissions now ,nothing will prevent the course we on....only a "slate wiper"
------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 06 2017 at 9:56pm
Some recent links:
http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=18252#.WJibdmn0WQ4.facebook" rel="nofollow - http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=18252#.WJibdmn0WQ4.facebook Greenland melt 600 times faster than predicted by models (Antarctica is becoming more like Greenland fast)
------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 07 2017 at 10:28pm
carbon20, the North Pole may get close to 0C again this winter-shocking, depressing etc. http://grist.org/article/the-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-arctic-winter-is-about-to-get-worse/" rel="nofollow - http://grist.org/article/the-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-arctic-winter-is-about-to-get-worse/
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/02/08/arctic-sea-ice-volume-is-lowest-on-record-by-a-considerable-margin/" rel="nofollow - https://robertscribbler.com/2017/02/08/arctic-sea-ice-volume-is-lowest-on-record-by-a-considerable-margin/ Sea-ice volume, extend etc at record low both in the Arctic (winter) and Ant-arctic (summer). This will increase effects on land-ice in Greenland, Ant-arctic landmass etc.
https://higginsstormchasing.com/welcome-hell-earth-australia/" rel="nofollow - https://higginsstormchasing.com/welcome-hell-earth-australia/ Carbon20-you can feel the heat ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSnrDRU6_2g" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSnrDRU6_2g climate disaster in short.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 08 2017 at 9:50pm
As the Arctic slipped into the half-darkness of autumn last year, it seemed to enter the Twilight Zone. In the span of a few months, all manner of strange things happened.
The cap of sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean started to shrink when it should have been growing. Temperatures at the North Pole soared more than 20 °C above normal at times. And polar bears prowling the shorelines of Hudson Bay had a record number of run-ins with people while waiting for the water to freeze over.
It was a stark illustration of just how quickly http://www.nature.com/news/incredibly-thin-arctic-sea-ice-shocks-researchers-1.21163" rel="nofollow - climate change is reshaping the far north . And if last autumn was bizarre, it's the summers that have really got scientists worried. As early as 2030, researchers say, the Arctic Ocean could lose essentially all of its ice during the warmest months of the year — a radical transformation that would http://www.nature.com/news/polar-bear-metabolism-cannot-cope-with-ice-loss-1.17992" rel="nofollow - upend Arctic ecosystems and disrupt many northern communities.
On February 10, 2017, 18:00 UTC it is https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/02/10/1800Z/wind/surface/level/anim=off/overlay=temp/orthographic=0.56,80.42,1576/loc=0,90" rel="nofollow - forecast to be 0.1°C or 32.1°F at the North Pole, i.e. above the temperature at which water freezes. The temperature at the North Pole is forecast to be 30°C or 54°F warmer than 1979-2000, on Feb 10, 2017, 18:00 UTC, as shown on the Climate Reanalyzer image on the right.
-
Without action, we are facing extinction at unprecedented scale. In many respects, we are already in the sixth mass extinction of Earth's history. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct when temperatures rose by 8 °C (14 °F) during the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extinction_event" rel="nofollow - Permian-Triassic extinction , or the Great Dying, 252 million years ago.
During the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which occurred 55 million years ago, global temperatures rose as rapidly as by http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/abrupt-climate-change.html" rel="nofollow - 5°C in ~13 years , according to a study by Wright et al. A recent study by researchers led by Zebee concludes that the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. Back in history, the highest carbon release rates of the past 66 million years occurred during the PETM. Yet, the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate was less than 1.1 Pg C per year, the study by Zebee et al. found. By contrast, a recent annual carbon release rate from anthropogenic sources was ~10 Pg C (2014). The study by Zebee et al. therefore concludes that future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the - by comparison - relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.
An earlier study by researchers led by De Vos had already concluded that current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed in the http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html" rel="nofollow - Climate Plan
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 10 2017 at 10:01pm
http://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-to-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release-216842/" rel="nofollow - http://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-to-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release-216842/ Is there a large methane-outburst on its way causing abrupt climate change or not ? (And if not what other proces is causing methane numbers going up ? Both from the Arctic, Antarctic and other places/processes (agri-culture, drought etc) ?)
Paul Beckwith gives his comments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwGN53_fxAY" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwGN53_fxAY =part 1 of 6 parts (?).
Complex processes do not fit in a culture of one-liners. So Paul Beckwith takes an hour to discuss this very important subject. If there is no major methane release maybe climate change damage can get "limited"(with still sealevelrise, extreme weather, superstorms etc-massive death).
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 11 2017 at 2:07pm
Water scarcity in Pakistan – A bigger threat than terrorism
A UNDP report says that Pakistani authorities are negligent about an impending water crisis that is posing a serious threat to the country's stability. Experts say the South Asian country is likely to dry up by 2025.
The major threat that Pakistan faces today is not Islamist terrorism but water scarcity. While the former makes headlines all over the world, the latter is an issue that is hardly discussed in the national and international media or by policymakers. But a recent UNDP draft report on the water crisis in Pakistan sheds light on a serious, albeit much-neglected, conflict the South Asian country is grappling with.
While discussing the UNDP report "Development Advocate Pakistan," Shamsul Mulk, former chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority, said that water policy is simply non-existent in Pakistan. Policymakers act like "absentee landlords" of water, he added.
"Because of this absentee landlordism, water has become the property of the landlords and the poor are deprived of their share," Mulk said.
Pakistan hasn't built new dams since the 1960s, say experts
The draft report on water resources was prepared at the request of the ministry of water and power. Mulk said, however, the cabinet ministers never reviewed it.
Last year, the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) warned that the country may run dry by 2025 if the authorities didn't take immediate action. It said the majority-Muslim country touched the "water stress line" in 1990 and crossed the "water scarcity line" in 2005.
If this situation persists, Pakistan is likely to face an acute water shortage or a drought-like situation in the near future, predicted the PCRWR, which is affiliated with the South Asian country's Ministry of Science and Technology.
Expert Irfan Choudhry says the authorities lack the political will to tackle the problem.
"There are no proper water storage facilities in the country. Pakistan hasn't built new dams since the 1960s. What we see is political bickering over the issue. The authorities need to act now. We can store water for only 30 days, and it is worrisome," Choudhry told DW.
Climate change and poor management
Pakistan has the world's fourth highest rate of water use. Its water intensity rate - the amount of water, in cubic meters, used per unit of GDP - is the world's highest. This suggests that no country's economy is more water-intensive than Pakistan's.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan is already the third most water-stressed country in the world. Its per capita annual water availability is 1,017 cubic meters - perilously close to the scarcity threshold of 1,000 cubic meters. Back in 2009, Pakistan's water availability was about 1,500 cubic meters.
The scarcity of water is triggering conflicts in the country
The bulk of Pakistan's farmland is irrigated through a canal system, but the IMF says in a report canal water is vastly underpriced, recovering only one-quarter of annual operating and maintenance costs. Meanwhile, agriculture, which consumes almost all annual available surface water, is largely untaxed.
Experts say that population growth and urbanization are the main reasons behind the crisis. The issue has also been exacerbated by climate change, poor water management, and a lack of political will to deal with the crisis.
"Pakistan is approaching the scarcity threshold for water. What is even more disturbing is that groundwater supplies - the last resort of water supply - are being rapidly depleted. And worst of all is that the authorities have given no indication that they plan to do anything about any of this," Michael Kugelman, South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center, http://www.dw.com/en/water-scarcity-is-pakistans-worst-nightmare/a-18557432" rel="nofollow - told DW in an interview .
Blaming India
Yet, Pakistan blames India for its water crisis. The country's authorities say that New Delhi is not fulfilling its responsibilities under the Indus Waters Treaty - brokered by the World Bank in 1960 - as they voice concerns over India's construction of new dams.
Like militancy, a water crisis could threaten the legitimacy of the government and state
Recently, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took up the dams issue with the World Bank. Sharif urged the Bank to play a "lead role" in resolving the water disputes between Pakistan and India by establishing a Court of Arbitration. But the international community, as well as the UNDP, holds Pakistan responsible for the dispute.
Kugelman says that the Pakistani authorities need to step up efforts to overcome the crisis, which is partly man-made. "First of all, Pakistan's leaders and stakeholders need to take ownership of this challenge and declare their intention to tackle it. Simply blaming previous governments, or blaming India, for the crisis won't solve anything. Next, the government needs to institute a major paradigm shift that promotes more judicious use of water," Kugelman emphasized.
Ashfaq Ahmed Sheikh, director of the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources, told DW that the authorities had already introduced several schemes in the cities of Sheikhupura and Sargodha and saved up to 50 percent of water used in the rice fields, without compromising on production. He called on the government to initiate more such projects all over the country.
Fueling tensions
The scarcity of water is also triggering security conflicts in the country. Experts say the economic impact of the water crisis is immense, and the people are fighting for resources. Three out of four Pakistani provinces blame the most populous and politically empowered province, Punjab, for usurping their water sources.
"The government is ignoring the interests of our province," Ayaz Lateef Palejo, a nationalist leader from the southern Sindh province, told DW. "There is massive corruption in the water sector, and we are unhappy with the situation," he added.
Kugelman also believes that the economic implications of the conflict are creating rifts among the population, which are likely to aggravate the security situation in the country.
"The political implications of the crisis have yet to be determined, but we can expect that if nothing is done and the situation gets worse, pressure on the political leadership will intensify. In the years ahead, this could lead to unrest-and, if things get sufficiently out of hand, perhaps even a military takeover. None of this can be ruled out. Such is the seriousness of the situation," said Kugelman.
"Some may say that loose nukes and Islamist militant takeovers are the big fear for Pakistan. For me, the nightmare is water scarcity, because in Pakistan it is very real and already upon us," the expert added.
Additional reporting by Sattar Khan, DW's correspondent in Islamabad.
------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 11 2017 at 2:11pm
Kutubdia’s islanders don’t have much of a carbon footprint – most don’t have regular electricity. But they are facing the reality of a changing climate
The trees serve as a bittersweet reminder of what the villagers of Ali Akbar Dial havelost — and they serve as a warning of what is coming along the coast of Bangladesh.
Published: 16:59 February 3, 2017 http://gulfnews.com/" rel="nofollow">
A row of mangrove trees sticking out of the sand, exposed by low tide off Kutubdia island in the Bay of Bengal, is all that remains of a coastal village that for generations was home to 250 families. The villagers were forced to flee as their land, which had been slowly eroding for decades, was finally engulfed by the ever-rising tide five years ago.
For the embattled people of Ali Akbar Dial, a collection of disappearing villages on the southern tip of the island in Bangladesh, the distant trees serve as a bittersweet reminder of what they have lost and a warning of what is coming. The low-lying island of Kutubdia has one of the fastest-ever sea level rises recorded in the world, placing it bang on the front line of climate change, and the islanders are fighting a battle they fear is already lost.
“I was born there, so were my parents and grandparents,” said Onu Das, 25, standing on a sandy coastal path atop a concrete embankment, pointing to a forest of mangroves. “There were mango, betel nut and coconut trees. Now we are landless and it is very difficult. We do not get food regularly. We fish. Somehow we are trying to survive.”
“The ocean is torturing us,” said Pushpo Rani Das, 28, a mother of three who has had to move her home four times to escape storm surges. “We can’t stop it. Water enters my house in every high tide, especially in the rainy season.”
Rani fears that soon her family will have to leave the island altogether. A hundred yards from where she lives, a half-built brick mosque lies abandoned, its cement foundations washed away.
UN scientists predict some of the worst impacts of climate change will occur in south-east Asia, and that more than 25 million people in Bangladesh will be at risk from sea level rise by 2050. It is well known that many of the countries most vulnerable to climate change are among those who contribute to it the least, and here that’s certainly true. The carbon footprint of Kutubdia’s 100,000 islanders is small — most do not even have access to a regular electricity supply. But they fear that for them, time is already running out.
Tides that once stopped short of the three-metre-high concrete embankment, built by the government to protect the island, now flood over it and the embankment is damaged in many places. While no scientific monitoring is done here, a sea level rise of 8mm a year over 20 years has been recorded at Cox’s Bazar, 75 kilometres away on the mainland. This is nearly three times the level for Bangladesh as a whole and up to five times the world average.
So far, members of the fishing community of Ali Akbar Dail, perched precariously on a strip of coast next to the embankment, have learnt to adapt to the many natural disasters thrown at them. When the cyclones hit, they hoist their children on to their shoulders and head for the network of cyclone shelters, which, along with the country’s early warning system, have dramatically reduced fatalities.
However, after a year that they say has brought more — and more powerful — storms than before, the fishermen are engaged in a battle for survival against their only asset: the ocean.
They say the climate is changing too fast for them to adapt. “For me, it is the increase in signals [storm warnings], that they are coming in winter,” said Jogot Hari Jala Das, 70, a village elder, squinting against the hot sun. “It is hot now and it is supposed to be winter.”
The fishermen no longer fish in the shallow waters around the island because of a decrease in catches, which they believe is linked to the water warming, Hari said. Now, they travel 10 to 15 hours to the deep sea. But this year, they have seen an increase in signals, forcing them back to land and cutting their earnings further.
“Around 15 to 20 years back, signals were not as frequent as they are now,” Hari said. “When the signal comes you can’t go to the deep sea because it could change at any time.”
Asked what they would do if they could not fish, Hari laughed. “We can’t do anything. When we catch fish, we eat. Our only asset is the ocean.”
It is a dangerous life. Last month, 89 fishermen who left for the deep sea did not return.
In Cox’s Bazar, meteorologists confirmed the fishermen’s observations. Last year, there were four cyclones — Roanu, Kyant, Nada and Vardah — in the Bay of Bengal. Usually there is only one.
Nazmul Huque, an assistant meteorologist, said: “This year, the quantity of signals was more than any other year in the Bay of Bengal. Two or three depressions occur normally, but this year there were seven or eight, and four cyclones.”
Huque also confirmed a change in the pattern of the seasons. The monsoon, which runs from June to October, began later last year, he said, and the year before. “We see the pattern changing,” said Huque. “But I’m not a researcher and this is a subject that needs research. Whether it is climate change, I’m not sure.”
Scientists say the sinking of islands in the Bay in Bengal is due to natural and possibly man-made climate change. Erosion linked to storm surges, for instance, predate global warming. But sea surface temperatures, linked to sea level rise, have risen in the Bay of Bengal. In a report published last month, scientists said they believed the higher surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean were causing cyclones to increase their frequency and intensity.
Moqbul Ahmed, project coordinator of Coast, an organisation working with climate-affected communities and migrants on Kutubdia and elsewhere, believes the villagers are victims of climate change.
“High tides never used to enter the villages before,” said Ahmed. “One portion of the island has already been washed away. I’m quite convinced it is happening because of climate change.
“There are too many challenges. People are losing their ancestral land, and they are having to migrate to other places. There, they have to adapt to a new environment. There are families from Kutubdia who were once rich, with land and cows and boats, and now are living in slums and are beggars. There is no money for the migrated people and no government policy to help them.” Tens of thousands of islanders from Kutubdia have already fled to the mainland, many of them resettled by the government after 20 villages were swamped when a massive cyclone hit the island in 1991.
Most live in makeshift corrugated iron and bamboo huts in a shanty town called Kutubdia para (meaning “neighbourhood”), behind the airport in Cox’s Bazar, the longest stretch of sandy beach in the world and a popular resort for middle-class Bangladeshi tourists. But they, too, are anxious and uncertain about the future. The local government wants them to move elsewhere so it can build a bigger airport to service the growing tourist industry.
Outside the shanty town’s primary school, where children are learning English, Didarul Islam Rubel 29, spoke of his father’s heartbreak on leaving the island with nothing.
“My father had four fishing boats but he lost most of [them] and a lot of land during the 1991 cyclone,” said Islam. “He had to go back to being a day labourer and fish with nets. It was a huge shift. My father’s generation lost their way of life. If the government drives us out, another generation will lose theirs.”
Saleemul Huq, the director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development and a senior fellow of the International Institute for Environment and Development, said: “You can’t ignore the fact that what climate change will do is exacerbate what is happening. Erosion because of storm surges precedes climate change. But if people are talking about king tides and queen tides getting bigger, and observing that it is getting worse, then you shouldn’t discount it. Our former environment minister, who is from Chittagong, has talked about it.”
Huq said the term “climate change refugee or migrant” was disputed, because it is very difficult to disentangle the reasons why someone might migrate.
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 12 2017 at 4:18am
It is the poorest people that will pay the highest price first (a lot of them will die) for climate change they did not cause. The Indus-river, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" rel="nofollow - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River main source of water in Pakistan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan" rel="nofollow - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan finds it origin in western Tibet. Water supply in Asia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia" rel="nofollow - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia with 4.2 (or 4.4 ?)bilion people is under extreme pressure with snow and ice melting in the Himalaya-the "Third Pole". International co-operation is hardly there to solve the water-crises.
Sealevelrise will effect hundreds of millions of people from China to Bangla Desh https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh" rel="nofollow - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh and proberbly within a few years via cyclones etc.
Drinking water will have to be produced from new sources (sea-water, water recycling) when the glaciers in the Himalaya's have gone.
Bigger problems will be keeping continents cool-when the snow and ice has gone. Snow, ice, glaciers etc are "fridges of the world" and most likely to be effected by climate change even faster than the poles. In the short term more rivers flooding, in the long term extreme droughts.
From the 9 countries with nuclear weapons 7 are (partly) in Asia http://www.icanw.org/the-facts/nuclear-arsenals/" rel="nofollow - http://www.icanw.org/the-facts/nuclear-arsenals/ Russia 7000 warheads, China 260 warheads, Pakistan 120 to 130 warheads, India 110 to 120 warheads, Israel 80 warheads and North Korea <10 warheads. The US has 6800 warheads a.o. in Turkey (and Philipines once ?). Since most of the 300 French warheads and 215 UK warheads are on submarines those nuclear weapons could show up in Asia as well (without being fired).
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 12 2017 at 5:54am
The latest, from a blog called http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow - Arctic News , warns that by 2026 – that’s just nine years from now – warming above the Arctic Circle could be so extreme that a massively disrupted and weakened jet stream could lead to global temperature rises so severe that a massive extinction event, including humans, could result.
This latest blog post, written by Arctic News editor Sam Carana, draws on research by a number of scientists (linked in his article), who report on various feedback loops that will result from a dramatically warmer north polar region. But the critical concern, he says, is methane already starting to be released in huge quantities from the shallow sea floor of the continental shelves north of Siberia and North America. That methane, produced by bacteria acting on biological material that sinks to the sea floor, for the most part, is currently lying frozen in a form of ice that is naturally created over millions of years by a mixing of methane and water, called a methane hydrate. Methane hydrate is a type of molecular structure called a clathrate. Clathrates are a kind of cage, in this case made of water ice, which traps another chemical, in this case methane. At normal temperatures, above the freezing temperature of water, these clathrates can only form under high pressures, such as a 50 meters or more under the ocean, and indeed such clathrates can be found under the sea floor even in places like the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, where the temperature is 8-10 degrees above freezing. But in colder waters, they can exist and remain stable at much shallower levels, such as a in a few hundred feet of water off the coast of Alaska or Siberia.
The concern is that if the Arctic Ocean waters, particularly nearer to shore, were to warm even slightly, as they will do as the ice cap vanishes in summer and becomes much thinner in winter, at some point the clathrates there will suddenly dissolve releasing tens of thousands of gigatons of methane in huge bursts. Already, scientists are reporting that portions of the ocean, as well as shallow lakes in the far north, look as though they are boiling, as released methane bubbles to the surface, sometimes in such concentrations that they can be lit on fire with a match as they surface.
As Carana writes:
“As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, it seems inevitable that more and more methane will rise from its seafloor and enter the atmosphere, at first strongly warming up the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean itself – thus causing further methane eruptions – and eventually warming up the atmosphere across the globe.”
That is scary enough, as a sufficient burst of methane, a global warming gas 86 times more powerful than CO2, could lead to a rapid rise in global temperatures by 3 degrees Celsius or more, enough to actually reverse the carbon cycle, so that plants would end up releasing more carbon into the atmosphere rather than absorbing it.
Is this scenario or a giant methane “burp” from the Arctic sea floor just a scare story?
Not according to many scientists who study the earth’s long history of global warming periods and of evolution and periodic mass extinction events.
As Harold Wanless, a Professor of Geology and a specialist in sea level rise at the University of Miami explains, prior warming periods have often proceeded in dramatic pulses, not smoothly over drawn-out periods.
“We don’t know how this period of warming is going to develop,” he said. “That’s the problem. The warming Arctic Ocean is just ice melting, but the melting permafrost in Siberia, and the methane hydrates under the shallow waters of the continental shelf can happen suddenly. Every model gets the trend, but they don’t give you the rate that it happens or when something sudden happens.”
Wanless, who has for some time been predicting ice melting rates and resulting sea level rises that are far in excess of what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been predicting – as much as 10 feet by 2050 and 15 or 20 feet by the end of this century, vs. just three feet for the IPCC – says, “Scientists tend to be pretty conservative. We don’t like to scare people, and we don’t like to step out of our little predictable boxes. But I suspect the situation is going to spin out of hand pretty quickly.” He says, “If you look at the history of warming periods, things can move pretty fast, and when that happens that’s when you get extinction events.”
He adds, “I would not discount the possibility that it could happen in the next ten years.”
Making matters worse, Wanless adds, is the fact that a large enough methane eruption in the arctic, besides contributing to accelerated global warming, could also lead to a significant reduction of the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere (currently about 21%). This is because methane in the atmosphere breaks down fairly quickly, over the course of a decade or so, into water vapor and CO2, but in doing do, it requires oxygen atoms, which it would pull out of the atmosphere. That reduction in oxygen would lead to reduced viability and growth rates of plants and animals, as well as to a significant reduction in crop productivity. This http://inhabitat.com/runaway-carbon-emissions-threaten-two-thirds-of-the-earths-oxygen-supply/" rel="nofollow - dire trend would be enhanced by a second threat to atmospheric oxygen, which is the oxygen-producing plankton in the ocean. If sea temperatures rise much, and increased acidification of the ocean continues apace as the oceans absorb more CO2, plankton, the earth’s main producers of new oxygen, could shut down that source of new free oxygen.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 12 2017 at 9:36pm
http://www.sciencealert.com/el-nino-has-an-uncle-that-could-send-global-warming-into-hyperdrive#.WKDjUZ3nX4k.twitter" rel="nofollow - http://www.sciencealert.com/el-nino-has-an-uncle-that-could-send-global-warming-into-hyperdrive#.WKDjUZ3nX4k.twitter El nino/la nina has a 2 to 7 year cycle, there is also el tio/la tia 30 year cycle with la tia (the aunt) being coler-and the la tie-phase seems to come to an end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVxiQtk2lyE" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVxiQtk2lyE Paul Beckwiths summery on the USGS/Univ.of Rochester N.Y.-study on methane. In that study the amount of methane is put at 1800 giga-tons, earlier studies put it at 11.000 gt. Also it claims that methane when released will be broken down in the (rising) seawater for a very large part. The methane-effect on climatechange may therefor be smaller than some other climate studies claim. But in reality-check CO2, methane and other green-house-gas-emissions are going up and are far above the safetylimit (CO2 should be at 280 parts per millions, max=350 now it is at 410 and going up, methane is over 2000 safe would be 1250 parts per billion-even when you can bring the number for maximum methane release down it is still much to high. We had 2014, 2015, 2016 being record warm-global temperatures are going up fast-maybe the role of methane in the proces is smaller but that does not change the general picture. DJ) see also: http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/" rel="nofollow - http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/ .
11 million people in east-Africa face starvation due to draught/climate change http://www.fews.net/east-africa" rel="nofollow - http://www.fews.net/east-africa and https://intpolicydigest.org/2017/01/21/fresh-drought-east-africa-heralds-new-wave-refugees/" rel="nofollow - https://intpolicydigest.org/2017/01/21/fresh-drought-east-africa-heralds-new-wave-refugees/ (Africa has over 5 million refugees, Europe 1,3 million. Over 5000 refugees died trying to escape climate-crisis in Africa in 2016. )
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 14 2017 at 8:12am
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2121089-australias-extreme-heatwave-is-a-preview-of-things-to-come/?utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=ILC&utm_campaign=webpush&cmpid=ILC%257CNSNS%257C2016-GLOBAL-webpush-AUSHEATWAVE" rel="nofollow - https://www.newscientist.com/article/2121089-australias-extreme-heatwave-is-a-preview-of-things-to-come/?utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=ILC&utm_campaign=webpush&cmpid=ILC%257CNSNS%257C2016-GLOBAL-webpush-AUSHEATWAVE Extreme heat in Australia becoming the "new normal".
https://thinkprogress.org/180-000-people-evacuated-as-california-faces-major-flood-risk-29169ff6917f#.md5loe3im" rel="nofollow - https://thinkprogress.org/180-000-people-evacuated-as-california-faces-major-flood-risk-29169ff6917f#.md5loe3im On the surface plenty of water in California, but groundwater-level is dropping.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 16 2017 at 8:25am
In 2016, the annually-averaged temperature for ocean surfaces around the world was 0.75°C (1.35°F) higher than the 20th century average, higher than the previous record of 2015, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201613" rel="nofollow - NOAA reports . The global annual land surface temperature for 2016 was 1.43°C (2.57°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by 0.11°C (0.19°F). Note that NOAA uses the the 20th century average as a baseline, for more on different baselines, see http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html" rel="nofollow - this earlier post .
There is more heat on the way, as illustrated by the image below.
" rel="nofollow - - https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/02/15/climate-mayhem-action-not-despair/"> - https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/02/15/climate-mayhem-action-not-despair/ Paul Beckwith thinks there are ways to avoid total collapse. I hope so !
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 18 2017 at 10:02pm
I often hesitate with posting things I find on the internet. http://www.stjoechannel.com/news/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-record-low/658812593" rel="nofollow - http://www.stjoechannel.com/news/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-record-low/658812593 The sea-ice in Antarctica is almost gone, and at least two weeks before the sea-ice minimum....at several points glaciers are "dumping" ice-bergs in the ocean. Land-ice was kept in position by the sea-ice...
From https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva?fref=nf&pnref=story" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva?fref=nf&pnref=story The comment of a Burst is overblown but NOT the concept of fifty Gigatons of Methane being released from the Arctic. That is small change.
Before it is all over we will see Trillions of Gigatons of Methane released exactly as has been postulated for past extinctions. We will probably see a gigaton of Methane released this year alone.
In the past, releases were far slower but longer by thousands of years.
The normal annual release rate for the past few years is half a Gigaton from all sources, and we know that the Arctic has stepped up its production as of late because the Methane levels keep on increasing, sometimes in frightening fashion.
As I consistently remind people who have been brainwashed into thinking only in terms of CO2, all the greenhouse gases are additive to the current extinction event.
The real concern is 61 + 60 = 121
That can happen in three years with the ramp up in Greenhouse gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide ...) that are already having a pronounced effect on crops and human habitat while causing millions of climate refugees.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/feb/12/famine-looms-four-countries-aid-system-struggles-yemen-south-sudan-nigeria-somalia" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/feb/12/famine-looms-four-countries-aid-system-struggles-yemen-south-sudan-nigeria-somalia and https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/14/southern-africas-food-crops-under-threat-from-fall-armyworm-invasion" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/14/southern-africas-food-crops-under-threat-from-fall-armyworm-invasion Food and drinking water are under pressure. Food-production is only possible with the correct climate. All kind of diseases are getting more powerfull (yellow fever, H7N9, malaria etc). Wildfires at several places (Chili, New Zealand) what will this summer bring in weather disasters...
The dooms-day clock in a strange way is still a sign of hope-it is not yet past 12 ! https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/3255" rel="nofollow - https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/3255 nuclear detonation Arctic north of Russia ? Their source calms things down http://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=8582" rel="nofollow - http://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=8582
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 25 2017 at 2:17am
From his facebookpage https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva?fref=nf&pnref=story" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva?fref=nf&pnref=story :
The Data below are sourced from the US Government's Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division at Mauna Loa. It is the longest continuous series since 1958. (Boy, is that a long name!)
In May of 1958 CO2 was measured at 317.5 ppm. In May of 1968 CO2 was measured at 325.6 ppm. That is a 0.8 ppm increase per year. In May of 1978 CO2 was measured at 338.0 ppm. That is a 1.2 ppm increase per year. In May of 1998 CO2 was measured at 369.4 ppm. That is a 1.6 ppm increase per year. In May of 2008 CO2 was measured at 388.5 ppm. That is a 1.9 ppm increase per year.
In May of 2016 CO2 was measured at 407.7 ppm. That is a 2.4 ppm increase per year.
The rate of increase keeps increasing with the passing years. http://data.okfn.org/data/core/co2-ppm" rel="nofollow - http://data.okfn.org/data/core/co2-ppm
Joe Neubarth also is keeping an eye on methane https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10211563717426044&set=a.1873759521225.110794.1158280001&type=3&theater" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10211563717426044&set=a.1873759521225.110794.1158280001&type=3&theater
and effects of global warming on food production http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300116" rel="nofollow - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300116 .
There is a discussion in the climate science field on effects of climate change on human survival. Some believe "the end is near", humans will start dying on a massive scale within a few years from now due to collapse of food production, massive storms, drought/watercrises, sealevelrise, bad airquality etc. Others still see chances to avoid major disaster by biochar, geo-engenering etc.
My (DJ) impression: methane, n2o, co, co2, water vapor etc. keeps going up fast-partly by natural processes as an outcome of human actions. With that temperatures will keep going up, ice will melt-sealevel will rise. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinrich_event" rel="nofollow - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinrich_event On the longer term landice may become seaice and global temperatures could drop.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 26 2017 at 2:54am
http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/02/accelerating-growth-in-co2-levels-in-the-atmosphere.html" rel="nofollow - http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/02/accelerating-growth-in-co2-levels-in-the-atmosphere.html Also other reports of (sharp) increase of greenhouse gasses. The sea-ice (both Arctic and Ant-arctic) is at record low.
In the near future these trends will have dramatic effects on (plant=food)life on this planet. In 2050 there will be more plastics than fish in the ocean. We have to change the way we live and deal with our planet !
(For the march 15 elections in the Netherlands:https://www.partyfortheanimals.nl/party-for-the-animals/what-we-want/ such initiatives are not new, are international-there is a shift in thinking.)
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 27 2017 at 10:02pm
Sea-ice in polar regions is keeping land-ice in position. So with minimum sea-ice (and melting water getting under landice making that ice mass sliding of land) land-ice will start to move. https://robertscribbler.com/2017/02/27/antarctic-sea-ice-hits-new-all-time-record-low/" rel="nofollow - https://robertscribbler.com/2017/02/27/antarctic-sea-ice-hits-new-all-time-record-low/ .
CO2 should be at 260 ppm, now stands at https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2" rel="nofollow - https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2 409ppm.
Sea Surface Temperatures going up http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml" rel="nofollow - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml
see also: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/28/shell-knew-oil-giants-1991-film-warned-climate-change-danger" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/28/shell-knew-oil-giants-1991-film-warned-climate-change-danger (DJ; there are estimates that the Dutch royal family has up to 25% of the Royal Dutch Shell shares, also the UK royal family is a major shareholder. Quite a lot of European royals did invest in fossil fuels and banks (proberbly also weapons) but media keeps silent about it.)
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: March 01 2017 at 12:54pm
Highest Recorded Temperatures In Antarctica Announced And They May Surprise You
I write about weather and climate related topics (and study them too)Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
Antarctica has been referred to as the "last place on Earth." It has recently been in the news because of a gigantic rift in the Antarctic Peninsulas's Larsen C ice shelf. Some scientists have suggested that if part of the shelf breaks off, it could be an http://mashable.com/2017/01/06/antarctica-ice-shelf-collapse-larsen-c/#HqDoj.7ozmqL" rel="nofollow - iceberg the size of the state of Delaware. The Larsen B ice shelf did something similar in 2002. While such calving processes are often naturally-occurring, climatologists are also watching the region for signs of climate change.
Antarctica is often misunderstood, and you commonly see people mischaracterize ice gains and losses in https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/difference.html" rel="nofollow - Antarctica compared to the Arctic . It is typically a region known for being cold. The South Pole's annual mean temperature is -76F (-60C) in winter and -18 (-28.2C) in summer according to data at http://polardiscovery.whoi.edu/poles/weather.html" rel="nofollow - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute . In a https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/12/19/the-science-of-why-the-north-pole-is-cold/#55a9b34b57d9" rel="nofollow - previous
This Nov. 10, 2016 aerial photo released by NASA, shows a rift in the Antarctic Peninsula's Larsen C ice shelf. According to NASA, IceBridge scientists measured the Larsen C fracture to be about 70 miles long, more than 300 feet wide and about a third of a mile deep. (John Sonntag/NASA via AP)
WMO announced in a press release,
The highest temperature for the “Antarctic region” (defined by the WMO and the United Nations as all land and ice south of 60-deg S) of 67.6 F (19.8 C) , which was observed on Jan. 30, 1982 at Signy Research Station, Borge Bay on Signy Island. The highest temperature for the Antarctic Continent, defined as the main continental landmass and adjoining islands, is the temperature extreme of 63.5 F (17.5 C) recorded on Mar. 24, 2015 at the Argentine Research Base Esperanza located near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. The highest temperature for the Antarctic Plateau (at or above 2,500 meters, or 8,200 feet) was 19.4 F (-7 C) made on Dec. 28, 1989 at an automatic weather station site D-80 located inland of the Adelie Coast.
These records are quite impressive when you consider that average yearly temperature ranges from about about 14 F on the coasts to -76 F at the highest points in the interior. The ice sheet contains about 90% of the planet's freshwater supply and is about 3 miles thick in places. While unlikely to happen, if the entire ice sheet melted it would raise sea levels by around 200 feet (60 meters) according to the WMO.
Randy Cerveny is an Arizona State University professor of geographical science and urban planning and also serves as the the Rapporteur of Climate and Weather Extremes for the WMO. He stated in this morning's press release,
The temperatures we announced today are the absolute limit to what we have measured in Antarctica...The polar regions of our planet have been termed the ‘canary’ in our global environment...because of their sensitivity to climate changes, sometimes the first influences of changes in our global environment can be seen in the north and south polar regions.
If you commonly read my discussions in Forbes, you know that I use them to increase weather and climate literacy. An intriguing aspect of the Antarctic records is that they were likely associated with "Foehn-type winds" often referred to as "Chinook winds" here in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States. The http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Foehn" rel="nofollow - American Meteorological Society glossary defines Foehn winds as,
A warm, dry, http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Downslope_wind" rel="nofollow - The specific reference to the Alps provides clues about the origin of the word, but the winds exist in Antarctica as well. Though not as well-studied, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010JCLI3382.1" rel="nofollow - a 2010 research paper published in the http://www.kidsgeo.com/geography-for-kids/0070-adiabatic-temperature-changes.php" rel="nofollow - the KidsGeo website actually has a pretty simple explanation of this fairly rigorous scientific progress.
Example of a Foehn environment. http://www.meted.ucar.edu/fire/s290/unit7/print_3.htm" rel="nofollow - Image courtesy of UCAR / Comet Modules.
The next time you head to Antarctica, pack your shorts (just kidding). However, in all seriousness, we must continue to monitor and study the polar regions carefully. I should also mention that due to the remoteness of polar regions, satellite based observations like those provided by http://ice.nasa.gov/NASAsRole/?CFID=26052&CFTOKEN=af1c7177c40fa433-66E656B4-B9C2-51FE-A0AAA8F211DE0890" rel="nofollow - NASA's Earth Sciences program are vital for doing so and should be maintained.
------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 04 2017 at 5:37am
In 2011, a http://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/231620" rel="nofollow - paper in Geophysical Research Letters tallied up the total warming data from land, air, ice, and the oceans. In 2012, the lead author of that study, oceanographer John Church, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0375960112010389" rel="nofollow - updated his research . What Church found was shocking: in recent decades, climate change has been adding on average around 125 trillion Joules of heat energy to the oceans per second.
How to convey this extraordinary fact? His team came up with an analogy: it was roughly the same amount of energy that would be released by the detonation of two atomic bombs the size dropped on Hiroshima. In other words, these scientists found that anthropogenic climate is warming the oceans at a rate equivalent to around two Hiroshima bombs per second. But as new data came in, the situation has looked worse: over the last 17 years, the rate of warming has doubled to about four bombs per second. In 2013, the rate of warming http://www.salon.com/2014/02/05/last_year_the_oceans_warmed_at_a_rate_of_12_hiroshima_bombs_per_second/" rel="nofollow - tripled to become equivalent to 12 Hiroshima bombs every second.
So not only is warming intensifying, it is also accelerating. By burning fossil fuels, humans are effectively detonating 378 million atomic bombs in the oceans each year—this, along with the ocean's over-absorption of carbon dioxide, has fuelled http://www.techtimes.com/articles/33449/20150218/ocean-acidification-levels-seen-space.htm" rel="nofollow - ocean acidification , and now threatens the entire marine food chain as well as animals who feed on marine species. Like, er, many humans.
DJ; CO(2), NO, methane, water vapor all going up due to feed back processes. This means temperatures going up, sealevel will rise dramaticly (with hardly any (ant)arctic sea-ice remaining land-ice will speed up moving into the ocean)-warmer water expands, takes more volume.
Politics are totally failing by keeping their eyes closed for what is happening. Or do they simply not know how to react ? Extreme weather will become the "new normal" , governments should try to protect citizens. Over 70 million people face starvation in Africa, Yemen etc.
Eventhough under experts there is disagreement on what will be next most of the experts i take serious warn for catastrofic consequences. Land-ice will move into the surrounding waters-wich will create some new sea-ice. To what extent is unclear-could it still bring a sort of ice-age or is there already to much heat, meltwater under landice, that the effects will be very shortlived ?
Agriculture-foodproduction- is already effected wich will give rise in food-prices. Also the quality and quatity of drinkable water is under pressure both by droughts and flooding. Energy production may be next in the line to be effected; Orovilledam is not the only energyfacility effected. http://www.pnas.org/content/114/8/1886.full" rel="nofollow - http://www.pnas.org/content/114/8/1886.full
Policies should try to limit damage. Storage of food and water, a good distribution network, preparing for extreme weatherevents by creating room for flooding are wise.
see also http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.WORLD-CED.T2_anom-MSLP" rel="nofollow - http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.WORLD-CED.T2_anom-MSLP http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2016/12/30/with-enough-evidence-even-skepticism-will-thaw/?utm_term=.8d6f59099c69" rel="nofollow - http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2016/12/30/with-enough-evidence-even-skepticism-will-thaw/?utm_term=.8d6f59099c69
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 11 2017 at 1:11am
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/10/the-oceans-are-warming-faster-than-previously-though-rate-of-heat-build-up-is-accelerating/" rel="nofollow - https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/10/the-oceans-are-warming-faster-than-previously-though-rate-of-heat-build-up-is-accelerating/ this can lead to this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbiRNT_gWUQ" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbiRNT_gWUQ When a lot of landice melts a lot of land end up under the sea. What these simulations fail to show is; 1 due to temperaturerise water expands. It takes much more volume the hotter it gets and 2 with higher temperatures and more water there will be more clouds. (Watervapor is one of the greenhousegasses, the atmosphere is getting more CO(2), methane, NO etc. they all store heat more than the present atmosphere does. Also the oceans-with no ice reflecting sun energy-is changing and becoming a source of heat and greenhousegasses themselve).
On https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW" rel="nofollow - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW you can check data yourself.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/mar/10/earths-oceans-are-warming-13-faster-than-thought-and-accelerating" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/mar/10/earths-oceans-are-warming-13-faster-than-thought-and-accelerating is causing https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/11/world-faces-worst-humanitarian-crisis-since-1945-says-un-official" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/11/world-faces-worst-humanitarian-crisis-since-1945-says-un-official and https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/27/india-drought-migrants-head-to-cities-in-desperate-search-for-water?CMP=share_btn_fb" rel="nofollow - https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/27/india-drought-migrants-head-to-cities-in-desperate-search-for-water?CMP=share_btn_fb
http://www.fasterthanexpected.com/blog/" rel="nofollow - http://www.fasterthanexpected.com/blog/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTlYYlRN0LY&t=1528s" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTlYYlRN0LY&t=1528s Shell climate of concern movie 1991. Shell knew what they were destroying https://thecorrespondent.com/6285/shell-made-a-film-about-climate-change-in-1991-then-neglected-to-heed-its-own-warning/692663565-875331f6" rel="nofollow - https://thecorrespondent.com/6285/shell-made-a-film-about-climate-change-in-1991-then-neglected-to-heed-its-own-warning/692663565-875331f6
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10032017/global-warming-oceans-climate-change-noaa" rel="nofollow - https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10032017/global-warming-oceans-climate-change-noaa IPCC models are much to optimistic; temperatures in the oceans rise much faster than the IPCC expected. Less oxygen in the water is less life=less oxygen in the air.
http://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/claim-new-scientist-humans-responsible-100-warming-mostly-correct/" rel="nofollow - http://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/claim-new-scientist-humans-responsible-100-warming-mostly-correct/ Without human influence temperatures would go down, that is how you get over the 100% human influence mark.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 15 2017 at 2:17am
Science tends to be very cautious in presenting data. That is why the IPCC is running far behind the facts. Some scientists see the need for warning the general public.
Forums like https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/" rel="nofollow - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/ can be of use to get an impression of reality.
When you look thru the smokescreen of (political)hypes, "history-for-sale" etc. you run into many "inconvenient thruths". I do not want to know how long humans can survive the chaos they have created. I pull back to my "island of safety", comfort zone.
Maybe denial-in a certain way-is the only way to deal with "hard realities"?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/doctors-climate-change_us_58c85231e4b01c029d7717ed?section=women&" rel="nofollow - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/doctors-climate-change_us_58c85231e4b01c029d7717ed?section=women& US doctors; climate change is making us sick
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-Y2IjMrgf8&feature=share" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-Y2IjMrgf8&feature=share Greenland ice-melt 600% faster than in models.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: August 10 2017 at 12:51pm
Climate change link to the timing of European floods
Study of 38 countries identifies four ‘hotspots’, one of which covers much of Ireland
Updated: 10 minutes ago
https://www.irishtimes.com/profile/kevin-o-sullivan-7.1837420" rel="nofollow - Kevin O'Sullivan
A car trapped due to a flood at Sant Josep in Ibiza, Spain on August 10th. Dozens of people have been evacuated by sea after they got trapped in their houses due to floods caused by heavy rain. Photograph: Sergio G. Canizares/EPA
The way floods are arising across Europe, including Ireland, is changing dramatically due to climate change, and it is mainly to do with their timing; some are occurring earlier in the year; others later.
The findings will necessitate changes to how major floods are managed, improved monitoring of water levels and better alert systems.
This has emerged from a study of more than 4,000 river points in 38 countries andit is the first time a clear picture has emerged on a whole-of-continent basis. Timing varies depending on location, but four “hotspots” have been identified, where the new timings of floods are particularly clear; one of which covers much of Ireland.
The definite linkage between climate change and floods across Europe has been identified using “a river flow dataset of unparalleled scale and diversity”, according to Dr https://www.irishtimes.com/search/search-7.1213540?tag_person=Conor%20Murphy&article=true" rel="nofollow - Conor Murphy of Maynooth University. He is one of 30 European scientists involved in the research which covers a 50-year period up to 2010. Their findings are published in the latest issue of the journal Science.
In north east Europe, notably Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states, floods are occurring a month earlier than in the 1960s and 1970s due to snowmelt caused by “human-induced” global warming.
In Ireland, and neighbouring parts of north-west Europe, floods are occurring later in the year. They are coinciding with later winter storms, which may be linked to a variation in an atmospheric pressure gradient over the Atlantic between the Equator and the North Pole – known as the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Natural variability
This may be caused by global warming, although natural variability in this changed weather pattern is also an important factor over the time period studied, explained Dr Murphy, a researcher with the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units at Maynooth.
In Ireland’s case, a more complex picture emerges. Floods occur up to two weeks later in western Ireland (as well as northern Britain, coastal Scandinavia and northern Germany) than they did 20 years ago. Flooding on the east coast of Ireland and parts of southern England is occurring earlier in Autumn because soils in these regions are becoming saturated sooner due to wetter autumns and summers, he added.
The study warns that if current trends in the timing of floods continue “considerable economic and environmental consequences may arise”. It states that catchments around the North Sea, for example, may see reduced agricultural productivity due to softer ground, higher soil compaction, enhanced erosion and direct crop damage.
With earlier spring flooding occurring in Northern Europe, replenishment of reservoirs may not happen as previously anticipated with substantial reduction in water supply availability, irrigation and hydropower generation, it warns.
In parts of the Mediterranean coast, flood events take place later in the season and this aligns with observed warming of the Mediterranean sea.
Flood timing is “more sensitive to climate-driven changes than other aspects of flooding, such as the magnitude of peak flows”, the team led by Prof Günter Blöschl of Vienna University of Technology concludes.
Little evidence
Dr Murphy’s team has taken part in a separate international collaboration which found little evidence for increases in flood magnitude across Europe and North America, that may be attributable to climate change. The latest study did not evaluate the frequency of flooding.
He added: “The timing of floods throughout Europe over many years gives us a very sensitive tool for deciphering their causes. This newly created dataset means that we are now able to identify connections that previously were purely speculative.”
The trends highlighted in the study, in effect shows “the flooding season is extended” in Ireland. While a delay of weeks, for example, might seem insignificant, it had implications for how local authorities respond and the resources they will need to deal with floods, Dr Murphy told The Irish Times.
The changes in timings also underlined the need for adequate flood warming systems, he said. Such was the scale of flood damage in December 2015, the Office of Public Works and https://www.irishtimes.com/search/search-7.1213540?tag_organisation=Met%20%C3%89ireann&article=true" rel="nofollow - Met Éireann were asked by the Government to oversee the adoption of new alert systems suited to the Irish environment. Their development was an ongoing process, he confirmed.
With soil moisture levels reaching their maximum earlier in the year in more recent periods leading to widespread flooding in parts of Ireland and Britain, co-author Dr https://www.irishtimes.com/search/search-7.1213540?tag_person=Shaun%20Harrigan&article=true" rel="nofollow - Shaun Harrigan of UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology said it “highlights the need to consider the role of changing soil moisture dynamics, as well as extreme precipitation, in understanding how floods might change in future”.
------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖