General Discussion - IMPORTANT- 30 of 45 H7N9 non-poultry related

Hong Kong's http://www.chp.gov.hk/en/ - Centre For Health Protection has been notified of an additional 45 H7N9 cases on the Mainland, all reportedly with onset of symptoms during the last half of January.

While additional numbers from January may still come in, for now Hong Kong has this 5th wave of cases at a record-setting 350+ cases since November.

Cases continue to be reported ( ********com/2017/02/china-hubei-province-reing-19-h7n9. - Hubei province announced having 19 cases yesterday, of which only 10 appear to be accounted for in today's report), and our assumption is that we are only learning of the `sickest of the sick' - those ill enough to seek medical care.

How many uncounted mild or moderately ill cases are out there is anyone's guess, although some early estimates suggested that surveillance was likely only picking up a tiny fraction of the cases (see ********com/2013/10/bmc-estimating-transmission-potential. - BMC: Estimating The Transmission Potential Of H7N9).

Of the 45 cases in today's report, only 1/3rd reported contact with poultry - a much lower number than usual. The investigation into the 30 non-poultry contact cases continues, and so we'll have to wait for more details before drawing any conclusions.