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gloom & doom (part 2)

Printed From: Avian Flu Talk
Category: General Discussion
Forum Name: Off Topic Discussion
Forum Description: (In other news... current events happening now)
Printed Date: March 30 2017 at 5:29pm

Topic: gloom & doom (part 2)
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Subject: gloom & doom (part 2)
Date Posted: March 20 2017 at 1:25am
The "doomsday clock" is still two-and-a-half minutes to midnight"" rel="nofollow - but time is ticking and moving in the wrong direction." rel="nofollow - After the visit of US foreign secretary Rex Tillerson to China Israeli News Live bring the news that there is troop-movement in Bejing. 

China must be getting tired of North Korea's testing of weapons. But China may be preparing to make its points clear towards the US in a "less friendly way". So far China did not choose military answers, tried to get more economic markets (via financial infrastructures, trade deals with a lot of countries). 

The US-Trump-administration seems to want more confrontation with both China and Iran. Both countries are working on answers-wich means escalation of war." rel="nofollow - , (Pro-Iran forces moving closer to the Golan Heights are unacceptable for Israel." rel="nofollow - The Damascus offensive might indicate Israeli aid to the "rebels". Russia is seeing the Israeli air force serving IS.)" rel="nofollow - ," rel="nofollow - ," rel="nofollow - .

The war for Syria seems to escalete with more US troops getting involved. Growing chances that Russia (or Syria, Iran) may shoot down western or Israeli airplanes above Syria. The Yemen war is also escalating-" rel="nofollow - . 

"Moderate al-quada linked rebels" can not start their offensive in Damascus without foreign aid. Houthi-rebels can not fire missiles on Riyaad without foreign aid." rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

North Korea is most likely preparing for a nuclear test far bigger than previous tests. Those tests did cause earthquakes in the region (the tests themselves with magnitudes M5+).!" rel="nofollow -!

Climate Change:" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -


With more cases of humans both with H5N1 and H7N9 maybe worth noting that even if these virusses do not go Human-to-Human (H2H) stay bird-to-human they still can cause a lot of cases.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 20 2017 at 6:22am
On US-China relations:" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

Finally, in a parallel report from Axios, the website cites China expert Richard McGregor who lists 5 things he believes Xi wants from Trump in order to maintain cordial relations between the two nations:

  1. 1.Don't upend the status quo with North Korea: China's worst nightmare is that the regime would collapse and be subsumed by South Korea, which would make for a U.S.-ally on their border. It needs North Korea as a buffer state. Contra Washington conventional wisdom, the Chinese can't just snap their fingers and tell the North Koreans what to do. China and North Korea deeply distrust each other. So the Chinese hope Trump's tough talk is just bluster. (DJ-North Korea may already be close to collapse, from nuclear test that may go wrong to food-crises. When staying in North Korea means dying in North Korea you will see refugees)
  3. 2.Avoid a confrontation in the South China Sea: Xi will likely deliver to Trump a quiet warning on the South China Sea. During his confirmation hearing, Rex Tillerson told Senators China needed to stop its island building there. The Chinese want Trump to understand they will defend their interests if the U.S. pushes back. (See our Facts Matter on the South China Sea.)

  4. 3.Stick to "One China": Regarding Taiwan, they want Trump to stick with the "One China" policy. Xi was furious when Trump took a call from Taiwan's president, and wouldn't speak with him over the phone until Trump agreed to support the status quo. (See our Facts Matter on the One China policy.)

  5. 4.No trade war: The Chinese, like everyone else, don't know what Trump might do on trade. They are closely following the reports about the tussle within the White House between nationalists (especially Bannon and Wilbur Ross) and the Goldman Sachs wing, led by Trump's chief economic advisor, Gary Cohn. As Axios revealed: trade in automobiles is the big sleeper issue.

  6. 5.The big picture: Xi wants a stable international environment that allows China to continue to develop and accumulate wealth and power. They abhor the prospect of military disruptions and interruptions to trade, with Xi going to Davos this year to sell China as an apostle of the open international order to all the folks Bannon would call "globalists." McGregor says China's ideal state for America is "slow and steady bourgeois decline." Anything too chaotic — Trump's MO, basically — hurts China." rel="nofollow -

Europe" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -  (DJ-An Ukraine attack on Crimea might get some sort of support (info, logistics) by NATO ?)" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow - (DJ-Turkey does not want IS fighters from Syria and Iraq inside their country-maybe Saudi Arabia can exploit them in their wars with Iran ? Otherwise the IS fighters may become "refugees").

Middle East" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

(Russia will train Kurdish YPG fighters and open an air base at Afrin-NW Syria. Afrin is not far from the Turkish border." rel="nofollow - An airbase there would block airroutes from Encerlik-Turkey by the western coalition. South west-near Latakia Russia has" rel="nofollow -  So far YPG in Eastern Syria cooperated with US forces.  (Pro)Turkish forces inside Syria now have Russian forces east and west of them. South is the Syrian Army. " rel="nofollow - " rel="nofollow - - )

" rel="nofollow -"> " rel="nofollow - ," rel="nofollow -
Russia tells Israel to stop actions in Syria." rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 21 2017 at 3:23am
China-US relation" rel="nofollow -  :

While press reports put the best "face"  on Secretary Tillerson's meeting with China, skuttlebutt in the Pentagon claims it was "an unmitigated disaster."

China allegedly demanded the US immediately withdraw all its naval forces from the South China Sea and Tillerson flatly refused. The Chinese also allegedly told Tillerson that China has no way to stop North Korea from continuing to develop nuclear weapons and test missiles, to which Tillerson allegedly replied "don't piss on my leg and try to tell me it's raining."  Offended, China allegedly abruptly recessed the meeting.

Shortly thereafter, North Korea test-fired a new rocket engine, while Tillerson was still meeting with China, and later announced that they would launch nuclear weapons against the US, South Korea, and Japan "if a single bullet is fired by US and South Korean troops toward North Korea."

Middle East" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

Korea" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

Commetary DJ: When the Trump-administration does not accept the present nuclear treaty with Iran Iran may (re)start its nuclear program (and the US and EU are not on one line).
China does not accept US weapon sales to Taiwan, the presence of US navy in the South China Sea.
Russia does not want Israel to sell weapons to Ukraine, attacking (pro)Iran forces in Syria (or Lebanon). For Russia-Iran-China (RIC) it is getting clear what they can expect from Trump. They proberbly co-ordinate a joined reaction in wich they will not wait for US/NATO initiatives. Russia moving into YPG held regions inside Syria fits that patern. (The Kurds have not forgotten that the US/NATO is on the Turkish side in the war against the PKK, the US helped the shah in Iran in his genocide on the Kurds before the islamic revolution.)

North Korea will continu its weaponsprogramm. Putting satelites in orbit, developing nuclear weapons. The expected nuclear test may cause "very severe damage" in a wide region inside North Korea. Possibly the biggest danger for North Korea is its present government.

Climate Change" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

see also" rel="nofollow -  and" rel="nofollow -

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 21 2017 at 10:54pm
The Trump-administration in the US beliefs in fossil fuels, wants to Make America Great Again. Stands behind Israel and wants to spent even more on the military. 

If you want to be "great", the only "superpower" you can not shy away for confrontations with rivals. 

Given the importance of the Middle East for oil. Also the possibility to involve strong partners-NATO, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan I (DJ) think this could be a possible scenario: 

-Turkey can be pulled into the NATO allience when the Kurds can be used as "a foreign enemy" (supported by Syria, Russia). NATO countries can be forced to come to assist Turkey with its fight against "foreign invaders" (PKK) in Turkey and YPG etc. outside Turkey (that also would provide an excuse for a new invasion in Iraq).

-To stop any nuclear plans from Iran Israel, Saudi Arabia with US help will be enabled to take action in Iran. Pakistan already has troops in Saudi Arabia to help that country with border security close to Yemen. 

-The US wants to show strenght, the Black Sea mostly will become NATO territory. Ukraine, Georgia could become NATO members. At the same time NATO forces will be active in Libya. 

-Since Trump wants to show the world how great he is-also hit-and-run actions in North Korea, South China Sea etc. (Allies South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand-but an objective will be to get the Philipines on the side of the west, regain influence in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia). 

The idea behind this scenario is that Russia-Iran-China (R.I.C.) can act strong because of weakness from the west. Trump believes the west is stronger and R-I-C know that, they want to avoid major wars-and their coalition is not that strong. 

What may go wrong ? Russia and Iran will defend their positions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan-even the EU-may not want to be pulled in major plans to get Putin back in his"cage".

Russia, China (and other BRICS-nations) believe in a multi-polar world not in a US leadership. 

Also such a large scale military scenario is very expensive. Even for the US itself it may be asking to much (corruption and military mix given the hierarchy and amount of money involved). 

North Korea may be able to do a lot of damage (EMP-satelites ? Nuclear polution ? Blowing up dams to flood South Korea ?)

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 21 2017 at 11:09pm" rel="nofollow - Israeli News Live; Ukraine is working on a dirty (nuclear) bomb to use against Crimea, Eastern Ukraine (with western knowledge see also" rel="nofollow - ). It would provide Russia with an excuse to move into the Ukraine. For the US Ukraine is very strategic-flying time for missiles towars Moscow from the US is 30 minutes, from Eastern Ukraine the US would be able to strike without (much) time for reaction from Russia (or Iran)." rel="nofollow - Israel will keep attacking Hezbollah in Syria. The 4th attack in one week" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

(For a historic background" rel="nofollow -
From about 1500 BC to 1200 BC, the Mediterranean region played host to a complex cosmopolitan and globalized world-system. It may have been this very internationalism that contributed to the apocalyptic disaster that ended the Bronze Age. When the end came, the civilized and international world of the Mediterranean regions came to a dramatic halt in a vast area stretching from Greece and Italy in the west to Egypt, Canaan, and Mesopotamia in the east. Large empires and small kingdoms collapsed rapidly. With their end came the world’s first recorded Dark Ages. It was not until centuries later that a new cultural renaissance emerged in Greece and the other affected areas, setting the stage for the evolution of Western society as we know it today. Professor Eric H. Cline of The George Washington University will explore why the Bronze Age came to an end and whether the collapse of those ancient civilizations might hold some warnings for our current society.

Considered for a Pulitzer Prize for his recent book 1177 BC, Dr. Eric H. Cline is Professor of Classics and Anthropology and the current Director of the Capitol Archaeological Institute at The George Washington University. He is a National Geographic Explorer, a Fulbright scholar, an NEH Public Scholar, and an award-winning teacher and author. He has degrees in archaeology and ancient history from Dartmouth, Yale, and the University of Pennsylvania; in May 2015, he was awarded an honorary doctoral degree (honoris causa) from Muhlenberg College. Dr. Cline is an active field archaeologist with 30 seasons of excavation and survey experience." rel="nofollow -

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 23 2017 at 3:47am" rel="nofollow - ," rel="nofollow - "saboteurs blew up munitionstorage near Charkov"." rel="nofollow - A drone was seen december 2015, was it a drone attack ?" rel="nofollow - Russia busy with very large drills in Crimea and Belarus." rel="nofollow - SDF (YPG and US forces) crossing Eufrates-river near Raqqa." rel="nofollow - (" rel="nofollow - goal may be not only stopping IS moving west, also blocking Syria/Russia, Iran moving towards Raqqa. This action is a reaction on Russia moving into Afrin-YPG held area NW Syria close to Turkey? Russian transports in the area came under Turkish shelling" rel="nofollow - )" rel="nofollow -
NK celebrates a 100 year anti-Japan coalition. (DJ they can celebrate this with testing missiles, nuclear test, rocket engine-test ?)

China" rel="nofollow - ," rel="nofollow - ," rel="nofollow - Putin: Russian-Chinese ties reached unprecedentedly high level.

South America" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow - can we stop climatechange ? Iran-watercrisis" rel="nofollow -

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 23 2017 at 10:40pm" rel="nofollow - Israeli News Live-update." rel="nofollow - North Korea ready for another (larger) nuclear test within days." rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow - China warned a US bomber it was flying in Chinese airspace, the US considered it to be international airspace." rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow - ," rel="nofollow - you may wonder how much this is a US-operation in Syria." rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -  Ukraine explosion by drone" rel="nofollow -

Climate Change:" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 24 2017 at 10:58pm
Preparing for war ?" rel="nofollow - ," rel="nofollow - . MAGA=war" rel="nofollow -

Japan starts using new helicopter-carriers" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow - US has little options in North Korea-any action would risk war with China. (On defcon" rel="nofollow - good discussion on the position of North Korea towards China and Russia; just like Iran (a.o.) NK does not want to be dominated by any neighboors." rel="nofollow - United Korea would have 72 million inhabitants. It has a long history-also of being dominated by its neighbours-maybe a solution could come from the Korea(n)'s themselves ?)" rel="nofollow - Debka has proven to be incorrect earlier. But they have a point that Lebanon is very divided-with Sunni-muslims possibly willing to accept IS as defense against shia-muslims/Iran. The "powers behind IS" could provide transport. IS showing up from  Yemen, Libya," rel="nofollow - ," rel="nofollow - Ukraine, Afghanistan" rel="nofollow - even Philipines, Nigeria/West Africa suggests a logistical network-air travel-for IS leadership." rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow - Making profit from wars makes elites rich.

Climate Change;" rel="nofollow - ." rel="nofollow -

Paul Beckwith recently mentioned that temperature-rise is already going exponential with a rise of 0.6C the last 5 years." rel="nofollow - sea-surface-temperatures(SST) going up-means more watervapor-more clouds-more rain-more floodings. Also up till recent 40% of Sea Level Rise (SLR)came from water-expension due to warming. SLR will go up as well. More warmth is more energy, when you start to see yellow here" rel="nofollow - you are watching at superstorms.

Another note, less landice in Greenland, Antarctica means that the landmass under the ice starts moving upward. (Both Greenland an East Antarctica have up to 2 miles/3,2 km land-ice-without the pressure of that ice land would lift 1 kilometer/0,6mile. That lifting would cause earthquakes-in combination with the "normal seismic activity" this would give larger quakes (and tsunami's, wich also could transport heat/cold to regions were it would normaly not go.)" rel="nofollow -

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 26 2017 at 7:12am
Middle East:" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow - (DJ; Veterans Today and some other sources claim that since IS has no airforce airfields in Syria may be used by "third parties" for supplies for IS, transporting fighters (from Libya to Syria, from Iraq to Syria)-some "groups" are interested in dividing Syria in a Kurdish, a Sunni and a Shia-part. Airfields may be usefull for that goal.)" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

Korea:" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -
testsite preparations NK;" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -   (see also" rel="nofollow - )
Ukraine:" rel="nofollow -
JD The Balakleya munition storage had some large explosions. Israeli News Live did mention earlier the Russian claim that Ukraine was working on a dirty bomb to use against seperatists. VT did mention more often the use of small nuclear weapons (in Iraq 2003, Yemen, Syria and there may be some proof in both images, radiationmeasurements, ground samples (when possible). The reason that the usage of small nuclear weapons is not main news could be that all parties involved would like to denie the story ? It is not unthinkable that Ukraine could have SS-21 missiles from the Soviet Union time.

Climate Change:" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 27 2017 at 5:15am" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 27 2017 at 9:29pm
climate change:" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow - :

Unlike others, I do NOT expect an Arctic Ice Free Summer this year. We should have 15% of the Winter Ice come October. But with 85% of the ice gone, we should see a massive increase in Methane release. Remember this summer in the northern hemisphere we will start seeing localized temperature peaks at inland sites of 105 to 117 degrees Fahrenheit (DJ 40 to 47 C) within 2000 miles of the Equator give or take a few hundred miles.


In 2018 the heating will include another thousand miles to the North.

in 2019 another thousand miles or more. It is coming and we can not stop it. The Arctic Ice will be gone by 2019. Civilization will most likely be gone by 2020 if we do not take action now to cool the planet. We can always hope for volcanic action increase, especially from BIG volcanoes like Mount Pinatubo, as they are the ones to put sulfur into the skies. (Sulfur blocks out the sunlight and thus provides for global cooling.)$1b/8390716" rel="nofollow -$1b/8390716" rel="nofollow -

Wars:" rel="nofollow - The control-techniques are destroyed (by fire started by IS ?) which could mean the dam is not able to fully control waterlevels. If the dam would break it would put Raqqa under water. Northern part of dam under SDF (US) control, southern part still in IS control. (Other sources claim there was no serious damage at the dam-it still functions)." rel="nofollow -  In november 1983 the Soviet Union assumed that NATO-exercises were meant as a surprise attack on the Warsawpact and almost attacked NATO themselves. NK may draw wrong conclusions also." rel="nofollow -

DJ, the international community is aware of the dangers an escalation in Korea can bring. There will be more testing, exercises, THAAD etc. So far each escalation brought (indirect) communication on how to react on the event. The number of countries involved stayed limited. Japan and South Korea leave military action on the US. China and Russia would like to have more control on NK. North Korea itself has a clear (but insane ?) leadership. 

Another nuclear (underground ?) test in NK is expected the coming week. The test is expected to be much stronger then previous tests. It is not unthinkable that this test could go (very) wrong; fast way-causing a large earthquake (earlier test did cause M5/M5.5 range quakes), The explosion itself is supposed to be in a tunnel-blocked by concrete. But when the blockage blows away what was meant to be an underground nuclear explosion could come above ground-with lots of radiation problems and possibly much widespread damage. In short NK could blow itself up. 

A slow way in wich things go wrong is leakage of radiation into water, atmosphere, destabelizing coalmines in the region. It could produce seismic pressure wich could result in an earthquake in the region. 

The test itself is already a big problem. Working on missiles and (war)satellites is another problem. 

How do you deal with a nuclear armed mad man keeping a country hostage-in wich most of that country follow their leader blindly ? Agression proberbly creates more madness. The Chinese aproach of talking may be the only solution when you want to avoid serious problems. "Limited international action" could be possible when the US, China and Russia would discus it. Taking out NK satellites could be a step. When THAAD indeed is meant to keep NK under control China and Russia may be interested in limiting strike-ability from NK. 

Economic "weapons" could maybe convince NK to change its way. Could a de-militarized Korea be united ? Would the US, China, Russia guarantee the safety and neutrality of Korea when that would make the region (and world) more safe ? More weapons destabilize the region further-it is time for good communication with the US, China and Russia and make a plan." rel="nofollow - tree of languages)

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: March 29 2017 at 12:04pm
^Thanks, Dutch Josh, great information as always!!  

The increase in global temperature is causing the Arctic jet stream to behave strangely, it whips around and dips far into countries of the Northern hemisphere, resulting in the turbulent and unpredictable weather we are encountering.  

This is high-level stuff, but it explains it perfectly:  

http://" rel="nofollow - http://

The jet stream, which Mann describes as a "ribbon-like air current that travels eastward … in the lower part of the atmosphere where weather happens," exists because of the difference in air temperatures between the subtropic and subarctic regions. 

The eastward-flowing air isn't one completely steady band. Slow-moving waves that travel from north to south often appear across the ribbon of air. It is those particularly large undulations, called Rossby waves, that researchers link with extreme weather, because of the intensely low or high pressure systems they bring with them.

In a warming world, these Rossby waves are getting stuck in one place for a long period of time, Mann and his colleagues say. And this means that a region under the low pressure part of these waves will experience intense, prolonged rainfall resulting in flooding. The regions under the high pressure systems will be stuck with hot, dry conditions conducive to drought and wildfires.

What's making these waves static, or at least slowing them down? Mann points to the warming Arctic. The tropics aren't warming as much as the Arctic, so the temperature gradient from north-to-south is less extreme. As the temperature differences that create the jet stream decline, the jet stream's dynamics change.


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 30 2017 at 6:12am
Thanks CRS,DrPH,

On the jetstream:" rel="nofollow - the jetstream can also cause high-speed transport of weathersystems (from Polar vortex to extreme heat "out-of-place", the jetstream also influences the wind(speed) at lower altitude" rel="nofollow - )." rel="nofollow - Antarctica is belowe average temperature but the Arctic is sometimes +5C above average. (Wich will mean les sea-ice, more landice melt or sliding into the ocean more methane release, more warming seawater-etc.)" rel="nofollow - )

Eric Zeusse:" rel="nofollow - Tropics climate catostrophe by 2020 (=refugees, starvation, war etc.)

Korea:" rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow -
(This Radio Ecoshock show contains disturbing possibilities. It may not be suitable for small children or anyone already prone to fear or depression. DJ:this goes for all the Doom&Gloom Stuff DGS: take a break when it affects you to much-live here and now not in possible scenario's but do not close your eyes ! EMP may be the result of nuclear warfare but could also be caused by the Sun " rel="nofollow - -"> - )
" rel="nofollow - -"> -

The bad thing with North Korea may be that it could hit the globe any minute and in a way never seen earlier in human history. " rel="nofollow - -"> -

Middle East:" rel="nofollow - ," rel="nofollow -" rel="nofollow - (DJ-Sunni-summit of states that finance IS)

Putin-Trump meeting; sept in Finland or july G20 (DJ; During the Czars Finland was part of Russia. Finland and the Baltic states did get independent during the Russian oktober-revolution 1917 and following civil war. Stalin did fight wars with these countries in 1939/1940-Poland before 1918 was divided in a German (Prussia) and Russian part-wich re-occured in sept 1939 (Stalin and Hitler in stead of the Kaiser or Czar). " rel="nofollow - " rel="nofollow - -"> -

Health: ALS  " rel="nofollow - " rel="nofollow - -"> -

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !

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