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'Hothouse Earth' risks even if CO₂ emissions sla

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Printed Date: August 21 2018 at 2:19pm


Topic: 'Hothouse Earth' risks even if CO₂ emissions sla
Posted By: carbon20
Subject: 'Hothouse Earth' risks even if CO₂ emissions sla
Date Posted: August 06 2018 at 2:37pm

Climate change: 'Hothouse Earth' risks even if CO₂ emissions slashed

By Matt McGrathEnvironment correspondent
  • 2 hours ago
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warmingImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES

It may sound like the title of a low budget sci-fi movie, but for planetary scientists, "Hothouse Earth" is a deadly serious concept.

Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.

Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO₂ targets, we could still lurch on to this "irreversible pathway".

Their  http://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2018-08-06-planet-at-risk-of-heading-towards-hothouse-earth-state.html" rel="nofollow - study shows  it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2 deg C.

An international team of climate researchers, writing in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says the warming expected in the next few decades could turn some of the Earth's natural forces - that currently protect us - into our enemies.

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Each year the Earth's forests, oceans and land soak up about 4.5 billion tonnes of carbon that would otherwise end up in our atmosphere adding to temperatures.

climate changeImage copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionMany parts of the world would be significantly disrupted in a Hothouse Earth scenario

But as the world experiences warming, these carbon sinks could become sources of carbon and make the problems of climate change significantly worse.

So whether it is the permafrost in northern latitudes that now holds millions of tonnes of warming gases, or the Amazon rainforest, the fear is that the closer we get to 2 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the greater the chances that these natural allies will spew out more carbon than they currently now take in.

Back in 2015, governments of the world committed themselves to keeping temperature rises well below 2 degrees, and to strive to keep them under 1.5. According to the authors, the current plans to cut carbon may not be enough if their analysis is correct.

"What we are saying is that when we reach 2 degrees of warming, we may be at a point where we hand over the control mechanism to Planet Earth herself," co-author Prof Johan Rockström, from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, told BBC News.

"We are the ones in control right now, but once we go past 2 degrees, we see that the Earth system tips over from being a friend to a foe. We totally hand over our fate to an Earth system that starts rolling out of equilibrium."

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionMelting ice in the Arctic will reduce the amount of sunlight reflected back into space

Currently, global temperatures have risen about 1 degree above pre-industrial levels and they are rising by around 0.17C per decade.

In their new study the authors looked at 10 natural systems, which they term "feedback processes".

Right now, these help humanity to avoid the worst impacts of carbon and temperature rises, and include forests, Arctic sea-ice, and methane hydrates on the ocean floor.

The worry is that if one of these systems tips over and starts pushing large amounts of CO₂ into the atmosphere, the rest could follow like a row of dominoes.

What exactly is a Hothouse Earth scenario?

In short, it's not good.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionFlooding and coastal erosion may be a major problem in a warmer world

According to the research paper, crossing into a Hothouse Earth period would see a higher global temperature than at any time in the past 1.2 million years.

The climate might stabilise with 4-5 degrees C of warming above the pre-industrial age. Thanks to the melting of ice sheets, the seas could be 10-60 metres higher than now.

Essentially, this would mean that some parts of the Earth would become uninhabitable.

The impacts would be "massive, sometimes abrupt and undoubtedly disruptive," say the authors.

The only upside, if you can call it that, is that the worst impacts may not be felt for a century or two. The downside is that we wouldn't really be able to do anything about it, once it starts.

Are the current heatwaves in the UK and Europe evidence of a Hothouse Earth?

The authors say the extreme weather events we are seeing right now around the world cannot be immediately associated with the risk of passing 2 degrees C.

However, they argue that it may be evidence that the Earth is more sensitive to warming than previously thought.

"One should learn from these extreme events and take these as a piece of evidence that we should be even more cautious," said Prof Rockström.

"It may support the conclusion that if this can happen at one degree, then we should at least not be surprised or too dismissive of conclusions that things can happen more abruptly than we previously thought."

Surely we've known about these risks before?

What these authors are saying is that up to now, we've underestimated the power and sensitivity of natural systems.

People have been thinking that climate change would be a global emergency for everyone if temperatures rose 3-4 degrees by the end of this century.

But this paper argues that beyond 2 degrees, there is a significant risk of turning natural systems - that presently help keep temperatures down - into massive sources of carbon that would put us on an "irreversible pathway" to a world that is 4-5 degrees warmer than before the industrial revolution.

Any good news here at all?

Surprisingly, yes!

We can avoid the hothouse scenario but it's going to take a fundamental re-adjustment of our relationship with the planet.

"Climate and other global changes show us that we humans are impacting the Earth system at the global level. This means that we as a global community can also manage our relationship with the system to influence future planetary conditions.

"This study identifies some of the levers that can be used to do so," says co-author Katherine Richardson from the University of Copenhagen.

So not only are we going to have to stop burning fossil fuels by the middle of this century, we are going to have to get very busy with planting trees, protecting forests, working out how to block the Sun's rays and developing machines to suck carbon out of the air.

Image copyrightCARBON ENGINEERINGImage captionRemoving carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, as in this model, will be necessary, say the authors

The authors say a total re-orientation of human values, equity, behaviour and technologies is required. We must all become stewards of the Earth.

What do other scientists say?

Some say the authors of this paper are too extreme. Many others say their conclusions are sound.

"As a result of human impacts on climate, the new paper argues that we've gone beyond any chance of the Earth cooling 'of its own accord'," said Dr Phil Williamson from the University of East Anglia, UK.

"Together these effects could add an extra half a degree Celsius by the end of the century to the warming that we are directly responsible for ‒ thereby crossing thresholds and tipping points that seem likely to occur around 2 degrees C, and committing the planet to irreversible further change, as Hothouse Earth."

Others are concerned that the authors' faith in humanity to grasp the serious nature of the problem is misplaced.

"Given the evidence of human history, this would seem a naive hope," said Prof Chris Rapley, from University College London.

"At a time of the widespread rise of right-wing populism, with its associated rejection of the messages of those perceived as 'cosmopolitan elites' and specific denial of climate change as an issue, the likelihood that the combination of factors necessary to allow humanity to navigate the planet to an acceptable 'intermediate state' must surely be close to zero."

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12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT



Replies:
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: August 06 2018 at 4:08pm
"A total re-orientation of human values, equity, behaviour and technology is required".

So we're screwed then Confused




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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 06 2018 at 4:21pm
Oh yeah!

Here I am in NE Scotland, where a few years ago winter temperatures could make -24*C and summer temps sometimes failed to make double figures.  I have been wondering if I should move further north..................................................


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Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: August 06 2018 at 10:14pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECOeAUVc2H4" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECOeAUVc2H4 Paul Beckwith:

Yes, humans are mammals. Animals. We tend to forget. Out of all the mammals, our human body core temperature average of about 37 C (98.6 F) is almost the lowest, only beating out Elephants. Cats and Dogs have core body temperatures about 39 C, while Chickens are in the range of 40.6 C to 43 C. This means that other mammals are able to withstand wetbulb temperatures higher that the 35 C (95 F) limit for humans. As for the Elephants, things are not looking so good for humans as these wetbulb temperatures are likely to be exceeded in more and more places around the planet in the near future, mostly near the equator, as abrupt climate change proceeds.
" rel="nofollow - - w


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Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: August 06 2018 at 10:16pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdYCgM8-ptw" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdYCgM8-ptw Robert Scribler: 

The typically more resilient ice north of Greenland is lifting away from the coastline even as it exhibits features indicative of melt and thinning. This following warm wind invasions over the Barents from Europe and over the Laptev from Siberia.


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Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: August 06 2018 at 10:50pm
Some other news: 

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/at-least-29-people-dead-more-than-3.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/at-least-29-people-dead-more-than-3.html Korea

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/a-surface-sea-sample-warmest-it-has.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/a-surface-sea-sample-warmest-it-has.html California

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/a-mass-mortality-never-seen-before.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/a-mass-mortality-never-seen-before.html Florida

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Heat-Wave-Smashes-All-time-Heat-Records-Portugal-and-Spain" rel="nofollow - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Heat-Wave-Smashes-All-time-Heat-Records-Portugal-and-Spain

DJ-The idea that climate change would bring a bit longer nice summer weather-as presented by some-is-at best-romantic. There may not be a "new normal" but increasing absurd extreme weather. 

Some scenario's do expect the Arctic to get below 1million km2 sea-ice. That "blue-ocean-event" could happen even this year and become a global disaster the world has never seen before. We need permanent ice to keep the planet between certain temperatures. When the Arctic sea ice is gone we managed to destroy the climate control of this planet....!


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Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: August 07 2018 at 6:10am

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/humans-cause-growing-heat-wave-danger/" rel="nofollow - https://www.truthdig.com/articles/humans-cause-growing-heat-wave-danger/  and

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-11/uoha-byf110717.php" rel="nofollow - https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-11/uoha-byf110717.php

With meticulous attention to clinical detail, US climate scientists have identified  https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-11/uoha-byf110717.php" rel="nofollow - 27 different ways to die  during a heat wave.

And a second study, from Australia, confirms once again that human-induced climate change has doubled the probability of record-breaking hot years in the last half century.

Extremes of heat can be lethal: in 2003, a long and unprecedentedly hot spell is thought to have claimed 70,000 lives in Europe. In 2010, 10,000 are known to have died in Russia, in 2015 the heat killed 2,000 in India. Since 1980, researchers have recorded more than 800 instances in which heat extremes claimed lives.

And now,  http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/mora/Team.html" rel="nofollow - Camilo Mora, a geographer at the University of Hawaii  in Manoa, has looked more closely at the pathology of death during a hot season.




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Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !


Posted By: DeepThinker
Date Posted: August 07 2018 at 11:56am
"Currently, global temperatures have risen about 1 degree above pre-industrial levels and they are rising by around 0.17C per decade."

O you mean the earth has warmed 1* since the last little ice age?   Wow what a big surprise.   Instead of comparing temps a couple hundred years why don't they tell us about temps 1000 years ago or 2000 years ago?   O yea the world was significantly warmer then!

All I see is fear mongering bull*****!  These predictions NEVER come to fruition.   Show me *any* predictions made by global experts that have come true.


Posted By: DeepThinker
Date Posted: August 07 2018 at 12:00pm
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

Some other news: 

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/at-least-29-people-dead-more-than-3.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/at-least-29-people-dead-more-than-3.html Korea

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/a-surface-sea-sample-warmest-it-has.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/a-surface-sea-sample-warmest-it-has.html California

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/a-mass-mortality-never-seen-before.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/08/a-mass-mortality-never-seen-before.html Florida

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Heat-Wave-Smashes-All-time-Heat-Records-Portugal-and-Spain" rel="nofollow - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Heat-Wave-Smashes-All-time-Heat-Records-Portugal-and-Spain
Some scenario's do expect the Arctic to get below 1million km2 sea-ice. That "blue-ocean-event" could happen even this year and become a global disaster the world has never seen before. We need permanent ice to keep the planet between certain temperatures. When the Arctic sea ice is gone we managed to destroy the climate control of this planet....!


You do know that the arctic has had  below normal temps all summer till just recently.   It has been the coolest arctic summer in decades.   Also ice currently is well above multi-decade averages. <sigh>


Posted By: DeepThinker
Date Posted: August 07 2018 at 12:09pm






Yep that looks like a blue ocean *this* year.


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: August 07 2018 at 3:33pm
Don't know what happened here lol

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12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: August 07 2018 at 4:13pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

 Deepthinker,do you not not think that adding 6 + billion people in the last 170 years to the earth has had no effect,2000 years ago the population of the planet was roughly 200 million ,now pushing 8 billion,we are now at the highest carbon levels not seen for a million years ,you have to think in millions of years not thousands, unless you think the earth was made 6 thousand years ago by a "God" which we know is pure fantasy.


No cars ,planes ,ships......no tons of human waste pouring into the once clean Oceans and Air ,2 thousand years ago, 

No intensive pig/cattle  farms with all the methane they produce, 

No millions of people flying all over the planet,

No tones of plastic polluting the earth,creating havoc  with human and animal reproduction,(LGBTQI)


do you not think digging up all the carbon sequestrated over billions of years  and burning it into the atmosphere over night , has had no effect on the chemistry of the planet, that had been Ph neutral for millions of years before Man started this ,

i hope you right , thousands of scientists  think you are wrong as do i ,

we have stuffed up this once unique world ,and it's too late to stop it,unless we lose 75% of the world population,

bring on the slate wiper,

if we were elephants in a game park we would have been Culled a long time ago,

Soylent Green awaits...............


-------------
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: August 07 2018 at 4:14pm
Wink

-------------
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 08 2018 at 1:35am
I don't think the graph and picture DeepThinker posted are specifically indicative of his disbelief in climate change.  Although I do admit there is insufficent explanation of the science involved.  That makes interpretation by us laymen difficult.  I would rather distrust the specific interpretation of the data collected on that site.

This is the polar portal where the images came from:   https://http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-extent0/" rel="nofollow - http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-extent0/ and its specific page for said images:   http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629" rel="nofollow - http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

The former of those two links gives the maximum/minimum graph with the line for historical thickness included (well above the current trends) and the second page includes an explanation.  Neither is particularily clear and I tried to find out about the HYCOM-CICE model used, but to no avail.  Even the link to the Original scientific paper written on it is unaccessable.   Hmmm.   
(Explanation of the difficulties encountered in monitoring sea ice can be found here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/arctic-ice" rel="nofollow - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/arctic-ice   that also casts a little doubt on their methods of data collection

The site in general is also rather hard to draw conclusions from.  That too made me mistrust its data a bit.  There is plenty of clearer evidence around.  So I looked up "Polar Portal" and lo and behold,  they are funded by an energy company 'GEUS' although they tried to obscure that- enough said!  (Explanation of the difficulties encountered in monitoring sea ice can be found here:

Personally, I prefer Noaah.  Internationally respected, afiliated to Nasa and publishers of far clearer data.  Similar science is used, but they stop to explain it and you can research their methodology.  You can find their most current data here:     https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/" rel="nofollow - https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/      AND A SUPER SIMPLIFIED BUT TERIFYING HERE:   https://oceantoday.noaa.gov/happennowarcticseaice/" rel="nofollow - https://oceantoday.noaa.gov/happennowarcticseaice/   or just ask the older merchant seamen, who will tell you that the Bearing strait was only open for a few days, with an icebreaker ship, in summer,  in a hot year when they were boys, but now is open and passable all year long.

When some of the scientists, using flashy websites and obscure data modelling methods muddy the waters, what hope for re rest of us?


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Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 08 2018 at 1:52am
I will argue the 1* warming DeepThinker quoted though.  Yes, 1* in warmer latitudes, but 5* in cooler ones and who knows about the deepest waters?  The best scientists are making estimated guesses.  Those guesses are scary.

There is a further point to argue, The Earth is really big!  Really, really, really big!!!  It hosts many complex and interlocking systems all of which affect its temperature.  Because of its size, the small amount of temperature change so far is only the beginning as it takes time to warm up something that big.  Because of the complex systems hosted, this increase in heat is profoundly delicately ballanced.  The tipping point, so often reffered to, is when a subtle change in the interaction of those complex systems unleashes a cascade. (heat releases methane and reduces sea ice.  Sea ice reflects heat away from the planet and methane is a STRONG GREENOUSE GAS for instance.  But that is only two of the many sstems.)

So, not just 1*, DeepThinker and even 1* can be apocalyptic!


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Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: DeepThinker
Date Posted: August 09 2018 at 1:02am
I feel I should clarify myself a bit...   Climate change IS real.    However I am very skeptical as to CO2's influence.    I am also not sure  that we are still in a warming phase.   Yes for 40 years or so we  have been in a warming period, AND the last 300 years have seen a warming planet.  So since most of the data we use has only been collected in the last 300 years of course global warming appears real.

The climate we have experienced in our life's is very unique by long term standards.   The last few hundred years have been the most stable couple hundred years the planet has seen in a LONG LONG time.  Also the last 10,000 years have been warmer and more stable for longer than any time on our planet for several hundred thousand years.  We are actually in the middle of an ice age but for some reason we live in this wonderful temperate window.  The world has been much warmer than today and much colder.   CO2 levels have been much higher and much lower today with no human influence.

The Equinox is precessing   The Sun is going quiet.  We are overdue for the next glacial period.   What I think we are seeing in the climate today is akin to what you see in financial markets.  At the end of bull markets you get a huge parabolic blow up just before it crashes.   That is what we are seeing in the climate today.   Things are erratic and unstable and we are getting one last blast of heat before it goes cold.

Lastly I want to mention that I don't like most of the articles such as this on global warming.   It is hysterical bull*****.    Too many times I have seen some study that says we are doomed... then latter other researchers find that they greatly overstated things.    It ALWAYS happens.    For example 10 years ago they where talking about 10s of feet of sea level rise... now most reputable scientists would only claim a tiny amount of it.    Also what is the point of writing this article , if we are doomed anyways? Just let us live out our days in peaceful ignorance.


Posted By: DeepThinker
Date Posted: August 09 2018 at 1:06am
Techmophobe my point was much simpler than that...   I was just arguing that what ever they are claiming as global warming can be explained by us coming out of the min ice age.   The glaciers started to retreat 150 years before industrial greenhouse production ever became a problem.


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 09 2018 at 2:29am
You are right that climate change is not all us, DT.  I was something of a skeptic myself until a couple of years ago.  There is a natural cycle involved as well.  That is why there was also warming on Mars.  But Mars is back to normal and we are not.  By comparison, Earth's temperatures are rising faster.

Tiny ampunts of gas can wreak huge amounts of atmospheric damage.  Just look at the CFC/ozone hole of a few years ago.  Carbon dioxide levels have doubled in recent decades.  Atmospheric CO2 is measured in parts per million and yet CFCs are measured in parts per billion because the quantities are so small.  There was probably even a slight warming from early human's campfires.  Deforestation is also a warmer of climate.  There is even a correlation between the drop in human numbers from the black death and the mini ice age in early Victorian times when the trees we did not cut down reached maturity.  Then the use of coal balanced out the reforrestation and temperatures began to rise again.

For decades the climate science was open for debate.  When dealing with the complex, scientists without an agenda can take a very long time to gather enough data to be certain of anything.  That meant those who were paid to deny man's influence in climate change spoke with apparent certainty and those who were unafiliated procrastinated.  Not any more.  Enough results are in.  There is a natural cycle.  It is on the backswing now and we should be getting colder again like Mars!  We are the reason it is not.  90+% of scientists agree we are now the main cause.  Some sources put that figure at 98%, but like the scientists, I want more proof before quoting that.

'And the other 2+% of scientists?  They mostly work for fossil fuel exploiting companies.  They are smart people; they know which side their bread is buttered.  Obviously there are a few nutcases on the fringe who deny the figures, but then again, some people still think the world is flat.

Scepticism is part of scientific thinking, and laudable.  Sadly now the results are in.  Not only are we the main cause, but it may now be too late to stop this snowball rolling melting.


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Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: DeepThinker
Date Posted: August 09 2018 at 10:22am
So 98% of Scientists believe in global warming? I would argue that only a tiny percentage of them are alarmists.   Probably only about 2% however they are the only ones who get any press.

"The results are in".   The modern warm period seems like it peaked in 1998.   There is some evidence that the 1930s were warmer. The medieval warm period was probably warmer still and the post glacial optimum was probably even warmer still.   I know it is just a tiny sample size but the earth has seen a dramatic unprecedented cooling episode over the last couple years wiping out half of all global warming. While it could be a statistical anomaly... it is quite interesting that it lines up perfectly with the solar cycle changing.


Posted By: DeepThinker
Date Posted: August 09 2018 at 10:57am
If you want to talk about human caused climate change... you have to look at deforestation and desertification of the planet. We need to bring back the large herds of grazing animals that our grass lands desperately need to survive. We also need to look at our agricultural practices.   We need to farm in ways that builds and develops the land, not usury and exploitation we so often see. We also need to manage our forests much better and in more natural ways.


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 09 2018 at 11:25am
None are alarmists that I know of. That is the thing with scientists, they go on facts and so alarmism has no place in science. As to being alarmed: most of them are, although not for us, but for our children and grandchildren. A few have been alarmed for some time. Hubby spoke to one in a complete panic 11 or 12 years ago (he was in the arctic on a research trip - tyhe scientist, not Hubby).

The modern warm period has also not peaked. Locally, different countries have seen peaks come and go, but overall the trend is clearly upward even if you exclude the poles from the data. Include the poles and the trend is not only up, but accelerating; it even appears exponential (which is actually impossible, but that is how it appears on graphs).

Distortions of these figures appear all across the web. Genuine alarmists would have you believe the end result would turn Earth into another Venus (which is extreemly improbable) exterminating all life. Those with a vested interest in fossil fuels point to local cooling (a product of the weakening jet stream, which is being diminished by the increasing polar temperatures) as "proof" there is no warming. Both are almost certainly very wrong and should be ashamed of themselves for obscuring the genuine facts, which are alarming enough!

To avoid these despicable benders-of-the-truth, the best approach is to stick to the known and trusted sites, like NOAAH. If you do read something from another source, find out who funds them before you swallow the results/conclusions.

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Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 09 2018 at 12:15pm
I could not agree more about the farming practices.

Deforestation causes desertification and exacerbates warming. In fact, most of our high-yield farming practices accumulate a planetary cost.

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Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: August 09 2018 at 3:16pm
the main causes as i see it are Us , the human race,

wether it be ,Farming ,Deforestation ,Mining ,Cars on the road ,or Planes ,Ships,

the main cause is our activity on the planet,

yes there are natural causes ,

we are entering a cooling period now as the earth moves away from the sun ,this happens every 11 years ,

and yes the climate has been in a very calm Period over the last 10,000 years or so,

however ,i still maintain that pumping vast amounts of Stored CO2 and other gases into an enclosed space ,IE our atmosphere ,that has no place to go and at the same time clearing vast areas of the best co2 filters ever ,you are in trouble,

the only species on the planet doing this is Us humans,

But:what is the answer,

maybe we have to admit there's a problem then we can do something about it......




-------------
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT


Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: August 09 2018 at 3:29pm
Originally posted by DeepThinker DeepThinker wrote:

Techmophobe my point was much simpler than that...   I was just arguing that what ever they are claiming as global warming can be explained by us coming out of the min ice age.   The glaciers started to retreat 150 years before industrial greenhouse production ever became a problem.



I also agree with this. Earth is still climbing out of the last major glaciation and Ice Age. The Pleistocene Epoch is typically defined as the time period that began about 2.6 million years ago and lasted until about 11,700 years ago, and 11,700 years in planetary terms is "yesterday."

However, the physics still holds true. We are barfing carbon products (carbon dioxide, methane, CFCs and others) into the atmosphere at an alarming rate! 9.795 gigatons per year. Sad.



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CRS, DrPH


Posted By: DeepThinker
Date Posted: August 09 2018 at 11:52pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

the main causes as i see it are Us , the human race,

wether it be ,Farming ,Deforestation ,Mining ,Cars on the road ,or Planes ,Ships,

the main cause is our activity on the planet,

...

the only species on the planet doing this is Us humans,

But:what is the answer,

maybe we have to admit there's a problem then we can do something about it......




I think I have a fundamentally different view as to who and what man is and our role on the planet as to many people here. What I hear is that nature and the natural order is good, humanity not so much.   It is almost as if we are an accident on the planet. We belong here.   The earth is ours to enjoy and use.   We are part of nature not separate from it.

The only solutions I hear our ones that would take us back to a pre- industrial type civilization.   Any legit solutions need to further technological progress.   Is it really worth it to have a slightly cooler planet if we are also living in a very primitive society?

"Humans are the problem" I see this thinking all over this site. I think it is downright evil. I keep hearing "the world would be a better if half of us would be killed off" how can you say that?   It is like admitting defeat. What a horrible world that would be... I would never want to see that day. New technology and innovation are the answer not mass genocide.



Posted By: DeepThinker
Date Posted: August 10 2018 at 12:28am
Very interesting web site to check out: http://www.surfacestations.org/" rel="nofollow - http://www.surfacestations.org/

These people have been auditing our weather stations and the results are a bit alarming IMO.   Two things have been going on... the heat island effect is intensifying, and the placement of most of our weather stations is very poor. You guys are talking about 1c of warming and I see these weather stations and all the variations and just pure noise in the data, please forgive me if I am skeptical.






Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: August 10 2018 at 2:33am
The planet belongs to all it's inhabitants,it wasn't put here as our playground,and yes we are a part of it, but we are to successful,and we are damaging it to a point where huge swathes will become uninhabitable,

What happens when, in another thread a report said 400million Chinese people will have to move from Beijing ( latitude 39.9042° N, 116.4074° E)to where ? And that figure is only a drop in the ocean of humanity that will be forced to move or die,

Billions of people will be forced to move,

I can see all the USA (that's only 360million) moving to the extreme south, of south America away from the heat ,can you see that happening ,because the Chinese are already planning for it.....

-------------
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 10 2018 at 3:21am
I have a solution which still allows us to progress technologically --- birth control. Once upon a time our life expectancy was around 35. Most of that difference was childhood mortality and death for the mother during the process. Then there were all the bacterial diseases we now have antibiotics for. People had loads of children because they had no choice. More died than survived.

Returning to any of that horror is a bad idea!

Now we live into our 70s as a rule; some live far longer and the vast majority of our children survive. But our society is still in the stone age. Most of our polutants would do no harm if we simply used less. Even plastics rot eventually - it takes thousands of years but it happens.

Our entire course of life is changed from that of our ancestors. Yet we still breed like rabbits. Why shouldn't we if bunnies can? Well a rabbit in the wild has a life expectancy of about 6 months. A few live longer but most don't make it to adulthood.

So why not change our ways? We learned not to club each other when annoyed - mostly. We learned not to rape - usually. We learned not to steal - for the most part. Civilization progressed - although we needed laws to control us; Thank You Hammurabi! But we still can't master this one. STUPID CAVEMEN!!! We do not seem to be able to take that last step. Well, we are getting what we earned.

We are not the owners of the planet. We are its custodians. We are making a rubbish heap of our only truly worthwhile asset. We should be asshamed, but instead we continue unabated. Well, Earth itself will either die entirely, or wipe us out. That is what you do with cancer - the only part of the body which breeds without control.

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Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 10 2018 at 3:33am
Ps. Your point about the weather stations is valid, logical and appropriate.

I don't think there is much heat island effect in the Arctic or Antartic though. That is where the biggest rises are. More importantly, around there are the permafrost lands where the methane hydrates are stored. Sorry, were stored. As the permafrost melts, the methane is released. That is 30 X as warming as CO2. SCARY!

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Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: August 10 2018 at 3:55am
just check out what other cites are on the same latitude as Beijing,

alot of people going to have to move ,

away from the north and south 43 parallel ,

the equator will be burnt to a crisp................

-------------
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: August 11 2018 at 5:31pm
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/hothouse-earth-merely-beginning-end-184843962.html" rel="nofollow - https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/hothouse-earth-merely-beginning-end-184843962.html

-------------
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: August 11 2018 at 11:02pm
https://paulbeckwith.net/2018/08/12/earth-climate-system-terrible-trajectories-to-hothouse/" rel="nofollow - https://paulbeckwith.net/2018/08/12/earth-climate-system-terrible-trajectories-to-hothouse/

DJ-Paul Beckwith on YouTube discussing another climate change study. In my (and his) opinion this study may be very optimistic. Recent Arctic Earthquakes may indicate a far worse escalation-massive methane release.

The global heatwave/extreme weather is effecting foodproduction and distribution. Famine is on its way for several countries. The Totten glacier (a.o.) in East Antarctica may be moving-same amount of ice as Greenland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dpEHWY0mRw" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dpEHWY0mRw :
Ten years ago Timothy Lenton spearheaded a scientific paper examining expert assessments on the types and likelihoods of Tipping Elements in the Climate System. A number of top European climate scientists published an update a few days ago, to get a handle on the risk of cascading climate feedbacks propelling the Earth into a hothouse state. They suggest that we are on that path now, and have a decade or two to avoid the worst. I fear that we have already gone over that cliff, and I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions.

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Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: August 11 2018 at 11:31pm
It is the speed of change which carries the biggest risks,

As sea levels rise and equatorial regions desertify, vast areas become habitable too (Siberia, Antartica,Greenland). But they lack the trapings of civilization we are all used to (roads, houses, resevoirs, sewers, hospitals, factories etc.). Constructing that lot in a hurry is an impossibly big ask. Where do you house the builders? How do you feed them? All of that is before we consider the political barriers to moving in.

The wild world also adapts, but needs time or assistance to do so.

The rising sea level problem also has solutions - polders. But they should be built now as construction is easier whilst the areas are still dry.

The world and the human race will both survive. I am certain of that. Civilization as we know it - no chance! Physics is quite clear about where we are headed. The early carboniferous period had a warm/humid climate and all the carbon we are busy releasing once more. As the carbon was originally deposited the world cooled. We have simply reversed the trend.

You could even argue that "Gaia" is using us to warm up and avoid those bloody cold ice ages! Not that she needs us much after the job is done.

-------------
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: August 12 2018 at 1:37am
Deep Thinker, with all respect-I do think you may be correct at some points (the way average global temperatures are taken at ground stations) but you may be ignoring the essentials. (temperatures, etc. are measured by satellites, CO2 and other green house gasses going up).

There are some basic steps consumers should take (since most governments are failing-Trump at least is not telling lies that he is taking climate change serious. Canada, Germany are building pipelines for fossil fuels, India and China need all the energy they can get (including from North Korea (coal) and Iran). Eating less meat, using less fossil fuels, would make a big difference.

In my opinion there is every reason to be very alarmed. Nothing wrong with "alarmists" maybe those who claim there is not a problem are a bigger problem.

There are several people on the internet busy on climate change. Paul Beckwith is putting a lot of info on You Tube. Robert Scribler (in some opinions more moderate) is also very busy; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXPrRy_QYso" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXPrRy_QYso

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05wQ9nG0IXY" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05wQ9nG0IXY and https://www.jasonbox.net/news/" rel="nofollow - https://www.jasonbox.net/news/ Dr. Jason Box is another source of info-going to the Arctic to see what is happening.

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Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: August 19 2018 at 2:44pm
Indonesia’s capital sinking by up to 15cm a year, new research shows
IT’S home to 10 million people, but one of Asia’s biggest cities is disappearing — and it could be wiped off the map in 30 years.

Ben Graham
news.com.auAUGUST 19, 20184:58PM
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IT’S one of the most densely populated cities in the world and home to more than 10 million people, but one of Asia’s biggest cities could be virtually wiped off the map in 30 years.

That’s because Jakarta — Indonesia’s sprawling capital — is one of the fastest-sinking cities in the world, meaning large swathes of it could almost be entirely submerged by 2050.

It’s a grim new prediction from experts at Bandung Institute of Technology (BIT), who say about 95 per cent of North Jakarta will be underwater in the next 32 years — forcing its 1.8 million residents to flee their homes.

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The megacity sits on a swampy plain that has sunk more than 4m over the past three decades and it is so low that seven of the city’s sewage-choked rivers actually have to flow uphill to reach Jakarta Bay.

It is now so bad that the BIT estimates the city is sinking by an average of 1-15cm a year and almost half the city now sits below sea level.

The situation is particularly dire in North Jakarta, a port city which has sunk 2.5m in 10 years and continues to sink by as much as 25cm a year in some parts — that’s more than double the global average for coastal megacities.

Jakarta is sinking faster than any other megacity. Picture: Getty Images
Jakarta is sinking faster than any other megacity. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

One of the municipality’s residents Fortuna Sophia said, at first glance, she can’t tell her luxurious villa with a sea view is sinking.

However, she’s lived there for four years and it has already flooded several times. Ominous cracks have also begun to appear on her home’s walls and pillars every six months.


“We just have to keep fixing it,” she told the BBC. “The maintenance men say the cracks are caused by the shifting of the ground.

“The seawater flows in and covers the swimming pool entirely. We have to move all our furniture up to the first floor.”

Jakarta is located on the west of the island of Java. Picture: Google Maps
Jakarta is located on the west of the island of Java. Picture: Google MapsSource:Supplied

If vast sections of Jakarta — which generates more than 20 per cent of Indonesia’s gross domestic product — were to be submerged, it would create an economic nightmare for the country’s 261 million people.

Robert Sianipar, a former top official from the co-ordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, told Reuters the impact of North Jakarta disappearing would be unthinkable.

“If we abandon North Jakarta, that would cost $220 billion in assets — not to count the number of people and productivity that would have to be replaced,” he said.

BIT lead researcher Heri Andreas said the sinking is partly down to the city’s unreliable piped water. Most areas suffer problems with availability of piped water, leaving residents with no choice but to pump water from aquifers deep underground.

However, when this groundwater is pumped up, the land above sinks and subsides.

“The walkways are like waves, curving up and down. People can trip and fall,” Ridwan of Muara Baru, who lives in one of the worst affected areas, told ASEAN Economist.

Flooding is becoming increasingly frequent in Jakarta. Picture: AP Photo/Achmad Ibrahim
Flooding is becoming increasingly frequent in Jakarta. Picture: AP Photo/Achmad IbrahimSource:AP

About three-quarters of residents rely on groundwater.

Reuters reports many of them are refusing to connect to the piped water distribution system because it is more expensive, is not always available and sometimes looks dirty coming out of the tap.

Experts say the only way to stop the city going underwater is to stop all groundwater extraction and solely rely on other sources of water, such as rain or river water or piped water from man-made reservoirs.

It all has serious repercussions for the city’s residents who have already seen increased flooding in recent years and this is predicted to worsen as climate change causes sea levels to rise.

Recorded floods and severe storms in South-East Asia have risen sixfold, from fewer than 20 from 1960 to 1969 up to nearly 120 from 2000 to 2008, according to an Asian Development Bank study.

In February, more than 6500 residents in low-lying areas in Jakarta were evacuated to shelters following torrential rains which caused widespread floods across the Indonesian capital and landslides in satellite cities. They were among more than 11,000 people who were affected by the floods, officials said.


However, it was a devastating mega-storm in February 2007 which opened the Indonesian Government’s eyes and forced it into action.

A strong monsoon storm coincided with a high tide and overwhelmed ramshackle coastal defences, pushing a wall of water from Jakarta Bay into the capital.

It was the first time a storm surge from the sea had flooded the city. Nearly half of Jakarta was covered by as much as 4m of muddy water.

At least 76 people were killed and 590,000 were left homeless. The cost of the damage reached $544 million.

However, none of this has deterred the property developers. More and more luxury apartments have populated the North Jakarta skyline regardless of the risks — meaning new residents are increasingly moving into the sinking area.

Indonesia’s Association of Housing Development chief Eddy Ganefo told the BBC he had called for an end to development but “so long as we can sell apartments, development will continue”.

-------------
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT



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