CLUSTER IN INDONESIA
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Forum Name: Latest News
Forum Description: (Latest Breaking News)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7930
Printed Date: April 27 2024 at 2:28am
Topic: CLUSTER IN INDONESIA
Posted By: Guests
Subject: CLUSTER IN INDONESIA
Date Posted: May 12 2006 at 10:39pm
Replies:
Posted By: Sure2Survive
Date Posted: May 12 2006 at 10:52pm
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It appears that we may have efficient human to human transmition going on in Indonesia. I am also seeing on Google that any links to the Indonesian articles have been redirected to other stories. We may be experiencing a temporary coverup as the Pandemic may have begun! ------------- Sucess requires eye's wide open |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 3:27am
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yes it looks like a cover up to me too
the other thing is this vill is a long way out in the sticks and they are jumping on it and the people infected supposed to be 12 people
they are saying they caught it from manure and that sounds like crap to me
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Posted By: Scotty
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 4:22am
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Kilt: Don't know if that was accidental or not but it certainly gave me a laugh to start the day with.
This looks like it needs watching but this is not the sort of H2H that would send me running for the hills. When we see dozens of small clusters spread throughout an entire region then I will worry. Even at that point my gut feeling is that we will still have three or four days before the real panic starts. IF it starts. |
Posted By: oknut
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 4:33am
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Bird Flu deaths raise human transmission fears http://www.breakingnews.ie/2006/05/13/story258548.html - http://www.breakingnews.ie/2006/05/13/story258548.html |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 5:35am
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http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng
Please check out this site. one day there was 3 bird flu flags then the next 6 bird flu flags today there is 8 bird flu flags My fear is it is spreading faster. What will happen next? |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:07am
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why is it that who doen't have all the places listed as bird flu.
Poland Ukraine Russia Somelia The site i posted for emergency has these listed |
Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:08am
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Found this in my folder of printed papers:
Major Parts of the Federal Response Plan Article Tools Sponsored By Published: May 3, 2006 In a report released Monday, the White House outlined a plan to respond to a potential pandemic flu outbreak. The plan outlines the potential spread and the planned governmental response. Stages may be skipped. Durrently the country is in stage 0, but has reached stage 1 before. STAGE 0: New domestic animal outbreak or animal-to-human infection abroad. THE FEDERAL RESPONSE Deploy diplomats, scientists and health experts to help contain outbreak. STAGE 1: Unconfirmed or suspected human-to-human infection abroad. THE FEDERAL RESPONSE American facilities and resources would be provided to help identify the virus through genetic testing. Federal agencies would increase surveillance at the borders and prepare to impose travel restrictions. STAGE 2: Confirmed human-to-human infection, an outbreak, abroad. THE FEDERAL RESPONSE A declaration of an Incident of National Significance would make the Homeland Security Department the lead agency to coordinate response. A test would be developed and distributed to check for infection. Travelers to the United States would be screened before department and upon entering the country. Travel restrictions would beconsidered for the affected area and for countries that do not have adequate screening programs. Quarantine stations would be activated. STAGE 3: Outbreaks in multiple locations abroad. THE FEDERAL RESPONSE Antiviral medications in the strategic stockpile would be distributed. Production of seasonal flu vaccine would be stopped and switched to the production of pandemic vaccine. Because it has to be grown in eggs, it will take six to eight months before the faccine is available. More stages - but that's what I'm typing out right now. Here is something too: However, page 46 Pandemic triggers is EXTREMELY useful. 4 objective triggers for a pandemic: 1. 3 health care workers contracting pandemic flu at work 2. 5-10 Human to Human (H2H infection) 3. More than 1 generation of H2H 4. Human and avian genetic combination with changed transmission pattersn. "The incubation period for H5N1 avian influenza may be longer than that for normal seasonal influenza, which is around 2 or 3 days. Current data for H5N1 infection indicate an incubation period ranging from 2 to 8 days and possibly as long as 17 days....WHO currently recommends than an incubation period of 7 days be used for field investigations and the monitoring of patient contacts". |
Posted By: bjregg
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:27am
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Commonground,
Thanks for all of the useful information you have posted. It is greatly appreciated. bj
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Posted By: bjregg
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:35am
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Birdlady,
I count 9 bird flu flags, one is behind another flag and barely shows. bj
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:40am
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So the country is in stage 0, the world is in Stage 3.
Good marketing. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 6:53am
| bj so what do you think of the rapid changes on this site. Do you think something big is going on? Maybe this is the start of the pandemic? I watch this site everyday and the changes are rapid. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 7:27am
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JAKARTA, May 13 (Xinhua) -- Five Indonesian people from a family related by blood were positively infected by avian influenza virus after tested by the country's laboratory, health ministry official said here Saturday. Posted By: bjregg
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 7:56am
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Birdlady,
I hope not, but the recent information doesn't look promising. Also, you have to take into consideration the likelyhood that a number of governments are not being aboveboard relative to their reporting of incidents. Bottom line: this is not good. bj
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Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:08am
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Thanks for the compliment bj. Trying to contribute my fair share in any way I can.
One thing I noticed with the above post from PonyGirl, is that these people are a bit older. I was wondering about the Pandemic triggers that I posted above. Would it be a combination of 1-4 that would trigger a pandemic? |
Posted By: Mahshadin
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:20am
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The first death in this news was on may 4th foloewed by 2 deaths on may 9th and 10th and 2 more on may 12th.
The virus has a 2 - 8 or maybe longer incubation period.
12 other people are hospitalized (Not confirmed)
Who states a 21 day window (Once efficient H2H starts) to getting a pandemic under control before it is out of their hands.
This information suggests the 21 day window if you do the math is already or close to being done. Also h2h would be a likely scenario based on the dates of the deaths.
What is not mentioned and needs to be confirmed is the 12 people hospitalized and wether they are related to the 5 deaths, if so I think these cound be considered second generation.
Of course all this is assuming effecient h2h and a different pattern of infection.
Any thoughts?? ------------- "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell |
Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:23am
| We have to find out WHO the other 12 are. Live nearby? For all we know...they could be HCW's!!! We don't know squat. |
Posted By: bjregg
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:26am
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Commonground,
I'm not sure, it could be interpreted as being one or more of the identified triggers. Things just do not look too good. As for the individuals noted in PonyGirl's post, I guess classifying them as "a bit older" is relative. I'm 55 and the individuals in their 20's and 30's seem young, albeit, not children.
Thanks again for all of your diligence and information. bj
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Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:49am
| bj, so far, a lot of the victims of bf have been children, or kids in their 20's. 5 of these people were 35 years old and up. |
Posted By: janetn
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:58am
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Im getting two separate clusters here one has already been pegged as coming from fertiliser. This new one is still unknown. Particurly disconserting is the mortality rate its well over 50%. It should be going the other way, for several reasons 1 earlier detection now 2 better tx knowledge 3 viruses generally weaken as mutate. |
Posted By: bjregg
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 9:11am
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Commonground,
You're right. bj
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Posted By: unpathedhaunts
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 9:35am
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What's with this?
May 14, 2006 Avian Flu Wanes in Asian Nations It First Hit Hard By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr. Even as it crops up in the far corners of Europe and Africa, the virulent bird flu that raised fears of a human pandemic has been largely snuffed out in the parts of Southeast Asia where it claimed its first and most numerous victims. Health officials are pleased and excited. "In Thailand and Vietnam, we've had the most fabulous success stories," said Dr. David Nabarro, chief pandemic flu coordinator for the United Nations. Vietnam, which has had almost half of the human cases of A(H5N1) flu in the world, has not seen a single case in humans or a single outbreak in poultry this year. Thailand, the second-hardest-hit nation until Indonesia recently passed it, has not had a human case in nearly a year or one in poultry in six months. Encouraging signs have also come from China, though they are harder to interpret. These are the second positive signals that officials have seen recently in their struggle to prevent avian flu from igniting a human pandemic. Confounding expectations, birds making the spring migration north from Africa have not carried the virus into Europe. Dr. Nabarro and other officials warn that it would be highly premature to declare any sort of victory. The virus has moved rapidly across continents and is still rampaging in Myanmar, Indonesia and other countries nearby. It could still hitchhike back in the illegal trade in chicks, fighting cocks or tropical pets, or in migrating birds. But this sudden success in the former epicenter of the epidemic is proof that aggressive measures like killing infected chickens, inoculating healthy ones, protecting domestic flocks and educating farmers can work, even in very poor countries. Dr. Nabarro said he was "cautious in interpreting these shifts in patterns" because too little is known about how the disease spreads. Other officials agreed. "To say the disease is 'wiped out' there is probably too strong, too positive," said Dr. Wantanee Kalpravidh, chief of flu surveillance in Southeast Asia for the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, which fights animal diseases. The governments of Thailand and Vietnam "believe they got rid of it," she said, "but they also believe that it might be coming back at any time." Very different tactics led to success in the two countries. While Vietnam began vaccinating all its 220 million chickens last summer, Thailand did not because it has a large poultry export industry, and other nations would have banned its birds indefinitely. (Vaccines can mask the virus instead of killing it.) Instead, Thailand culled wide areas around infected flocks, compensated farmers generously and deputized a volunteer in every village to report sick chickens. It vaccinates fighting cocks, which can be worth thousands of dollars, and even issues them passports with their vaccination records so they can travel, Dr. Nabarro said. Government inspectors sample birds everywhere; in February, Thailand reported that samples from 57,000 birds had come back negative. According to Dr. Klaus Stöhr, a flu specialist at the World Health Organization, Thailand and Vietnam also delivered the antiviral drug Tamiflu to even the smallest regional hospitals and told doctors to treat all flu patients even before laboratory diagnoses could be made. Dr. Nabarro particularly praised the leaders of the two countries for ordering high-level officials — deputy prime ministers — to fight the disease, and for making sure that enough cash to entice farmers to hand over their birds for culling flowed down official channels without being siphoned off. Hints suggest that the disease is also being beaten back in China, the country where it is assumed to have begun. International officials tend to greet official public health reports from China skeptically, in part because it concealed the outbreak of the SARS virus there for months. It did not officially report any bird cases for years, even though many scientists contend the virus incubated there between its first appearance in humans in Hong Kong in 1997 and the current human outbreak, which began in Vietnam in 2003. Some top Chinese officials have blamed the reluctance of local officials to report bad news to Beijing. Dr. Nabarro said he recently met a vice premier "who made it clear that they are absolutely determined to get the fullest possible cooperation from provincial authorities." China's reported human cases have remained low: 8 last year and 10 this year. Perhaps more important, its poultry cases — which lead to human cases and increase the risk of a mutant pandemic strain — seem to be dropping. According to the World Health Organization, China said it had outbreaks in 16 provinces in 2004. In 2005, it reported outbreaks in only 12 provinces, but one in November was so large that 2.5 million birds were culled to contain it. After that, the Agriculture Ministry announced that it would vaccinate every domestic bird in China, which raises and consumes 14 billion chickens, ducks and geese each year. The official news agency reported about the same time that a fake flu vaccine, possibly with live virus in it, might have spread the disease. Dr. Stöhr, who is in charge of W.H.O. flu vaccine efforts, said he was told by Chinese agriculture officials that the country was now producing 46 billion doses of poultry vaccine a year, and was supplying vaccines to Vietnam. China's most recent monthly reports describe much smaller outbreaks than were previously common: findings of a few dead wild birds and culls of 126,000 birds in one spot and 16,000 in another, for example. "We are hopeful that China has turned the corner," Dr. Nabarro said. In Cambodia and Laos, which separate Thailand and Vietnam, the situation is vague. Laos has reported no human cases and last reported poultry outbreaks two years ago. Cambodia's reported human cases dropped to two this year, from four last year. No poultry outbreaks were reported, but surveillance is so spotty that some must have occurred and gone unnoticed, Dr. Kalpravidh said, because the country's six human victims were infected by poultry. Cambodia was slow to compensate farmers for their birds because of problems with corruption in a previous cash-for-guns program. Health specialists generally agree that there is little clear chance of infected birds landing in the United States. Where the Southeast Asian governments have taken action, however, the risk of the virus returning is ever present, Dr. Nabarro said. For example, he said, it probably exists in Vietnam in Muscovy ducks, which can harbor the virus but do not get sick, and it has turned up in isolated birds in open-air markets near the Chinese border. (Single birds do not constitute an outbreak.) Since Chinese farmers can get three times as much for a chicken in Vietnam as they can at home, the temptation to smuggle persists. "Tomorrow, the whole thing could change again," Dr. Nabarro said. "We need to be on the alert at all times." 5 Cases Confirmed in Indonesia JAKARTA, Indonesia, May 13 (Reuters) — Local tests have confirmed that three Indonesians who died in the past week had avian flu, a Health Ministry official said Saturday. Authorities have sent blood and swab samples of the three people — all from one family — to a World Health Organization-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong. Local tests are not considered definitive. A toddler and a 25-year-old man from the same North Sumatra family also tested positive for bird flu, but they are still alive, said Nyoman Kandun, a director general at the Health Ministry. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/14/world/asia/14flu.html?ei=5094&en=2e2d7c79762b3aab&hp=&ex=1147579200&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print |
Posted By: JaxMax
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 9:36am
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Indonesia is also getting pummelled each day with earthquakes. These earthquakes will decimate their already primitive sanitation. The lack of sanitation will act as a catalyst to H2H since there are so many infected chickens the country is endemic.
Today Indonesia had ANOTHER eartquake, 6.1 on May 13, 2006. It was in Sumatra, the area cited in the articel by Pony above. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php - http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php ------------- He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible |
Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 10:01am
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Indonesia local tests show 5 positive on bird flu
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-05/13/content_4542796.htm - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-05/13/content_4542796.htm
JAKARTA, May 13 (Xinhua) -- Five Indonesian people from a family related by blood were positively infected by avian influenza virus after tested by the country's laboratory, health ministry official said here Saturday.
Director General of Disease Control of the ministry, I Nyoman Kandun said that the five from Indonesia's North Sumatra province had had contacts with fowls and pigs. He said that their blood samples had been sent to the World Health Organization's (WHO) affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong. They have been tested, the result were positive, Kandun told Xinhua. The five are 29 year-old woman, two men of 19 years old and 35,whom have died since at the end of last month, and two others men of 25 years old and 35 years old man, whom survive, according to the director. They are from one family tree, he said. The director said that three others people from the family were suspected of having the virus, including a 40 year-old woman and a 10 year-old boy, both of them have died, and a 35 year-old man whom survive. According to Kandun the WHO has confirmed 26 out of 35 people contacted by the virus, have died. The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain is endemic in poultry in parts of Asia, which killed more than 90 people. The WHO has said that the virus may mutate in to a certain form that could infect human to human which turn the outbreak into pandemic that could kill millions of people because they would have no immunity. Enditem 9 Suspected Sumatra H5N1 Cluster Patients ~ 3 of these match the age descriptions of the tests showing positive above.
1. Fuji Ginting, Roy's father, Fuji, 40, Died on May 4 at Elisabeth Hospital. 2. Anta Beru Ginting, 29 years, Died on Wednesday May 5 at dawn earlier at Adam Malik Hospital 3. Roy Karo-Karo, 19 years. He Died Tuesday May 9 2006 4. Praise Br Ginting (Roys Mother) Died May 4. (no age given) Both of them were expected strong terjangkit the bird flu virus. 5. Renaita Beru Tarigan a pre-schooler (1.8 years) ? 05/12/2006 18:28 of Brenata 18 months became casualties was killed fifth that was expected terjangkit bird flu in Medan, North Sumatra.
Four relatives at this time still were treated intensive care in the same hospital, namely: 5. Jones Ginting (age 25) 6. Bonny Karo-karo (age18) The last two patients who were treated were 7. Rafael Ginting, 8 years, was treated in RS Elisabeth, Street Imam Breakingprep Bonjol Medan. (Medan is a town in Northern Sumatra) 8. Obviously Ulina Ginting (8 years).
The above patient info was gathered from recent articles. http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7805 - http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7805
Recent reports may also indicate that 12 more suspected cases of H5N1 bird flu are being treated in intensive care at RSUP Adam, where http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05120603/H5N1_Sumatra_5.html - five family members have already died. Jhetta:They possibly include the remaing cased mentioned above.
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Posted By: janetn
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 10:05am
My brain is not awake yet [worked night shift last night] but 26 dead out of 35 is about a 75% mortality rate someone check my math please
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Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 10:13am
| JaxMax: I had to check the discussion forum to make sure I had my facts right. I thought it was the volcano that was in play for Indonesia. I was right . But now I see they also have a problem with earthquakes. Volcanos, Earthquakes, Bird Flu. Man. |
Posted By: Sure2Survive
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 10:17am
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Five Fatal H5N1 Cases in Sumatra Raise Pandemic Concerns Recombinomics Commentary May 13, 2006 The fatal http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05120605/H5N1_Sumatra_Confirmed.html - H5N1 bird flu infections of http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05120603/H5N1_Sumatra_5.html - five family members in Karo in North Sumatra has raised pandemic concerns. 2-3 additional http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05100603/H5N1_Sumatra_Pandemic.html - family members are hospitalized, but http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05120604/H5N1_Medan_12.html - 12 other suspect patients are of even greater concern. Media reports have provided no detail on these other 12 patients. The hospital is 170 km from the family residence, so it is unclear why there are 12 more suspect patients at the hospital in Medan. Least worrisome would be hospital quarantine due to exposure to the family. However, transporting these patients 170 km as a precaution suggests the local level; of concern is high. Media reports had described panic in the region, but the panic is more likely to be in Karo than Medan. If the 12 are casual contacts or hospital contacts, than the cause for concern would be increased. The five fatalities have already set a record for H5N1 clusters and so far none of the family members have been discharged. Two fled from the hospital, but they have been returned to a private hospital and their current medical condition is not clear. The family members most severely affected have died, and the spread in the dates of death suggests human-to-human transmission from the index case to the other family members. Although http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05110603/H5N1_Sumatra_Fertilizer.html - fertilizer may have contributed to the infection of the index case, infection of the other family members from the fertilizer seems unlikely, unless the other 12 suspect cases also are linked to the fertilizer, which originated in areas that are H5N1 positive. In any event, more information on the 12 Indonesian suspect cases would be useful. ------------- Sucess requires eye's wide open |
Posted By: fiddlerdave2
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 10:33am
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Even if this is NOT the beginning (and may well NOT be), this is how it will look if we are fortunate enough for the breakout to occur where there is some medical care.
This did go out to the friends who wanted to be alerted when the H2H could be started, the first one I have sent. ------------- Dave |
Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 10:49am
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Strong earthquake rocks Aceh, no immediate reports of damage
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaillgen.asp?fileid=20060513115144&irec=2 - http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaillgen.asp?fileid=20060513115144&irec=2
JAKARTA (JP): A strong earthquake measuring 5.9 Richter scale on Saturday rocked beneath the sea near Aceh province on Sumatra island, El-Shinta radio reported. There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries. The report said the quake was centered 47 kilometers under the sea in the Indian Ocean, about 95 kilometers south of the provincial capital of Banda Aceh. Aceh province was the worst-hit Asian coastline in the tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004, triggered by a quake measuring 9.2 Richter scale that claimed some 200,000 of lives. (BBN) Govt raises Merapi volcano alert to highest level
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaillgen.asp?fileid=20060513104529&irec=4 - http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaillgen.asp?fileid=20060513104529&irec=4 JAKARTA (JP): The government on Saturday raised the alert status at the Merapi volcano located in the border area between Central Jakarta and Yogyakarta provinces to the red code -- the highest level of volcano activities.
With the new status, the government requires all residents living in the slopes of Mt. Merapi to immediately leave their houses for temporary shelters, which have been prepared by localgovernments and non-governmental organizations.
Some 30,000 residents have to be evacuated from Mount Merapi slope if the volcano explodes.
The change of the Merapi status was declared at 8:30 a.m. on Saturday and was officially announced by Yogyakarta Governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono at 10:30, MetroTV television reported.
The 3,000-meter peak has been rumbling ominously in recent weeks and spewing clouds of black ash and lava. Many people living closest to the crater have already been evacuated.
"Because there has been constant lava flows that cause hot gases, we have raised the status to the highest level," Bambang Dwiyanto, head of the region's volcanology center, told The Associated Press.
Merapi is one of at least 129 active volcanoes in Indonesia -- part of the Pacific "Ring of Fire" - a series of fault lines stretching from the Western Hemisphere through Japan and Southeast Asia.
It last erupted in 1994, sending out a searing cloud of gas that burned 60 people to death. About 1,300 people were killed when it erupted in 1930.
Thousands of residents have leaved their houses for saver areas since late last month. But many of them had returned home because of various reasons. Many Villagers also ignored warnings about the pending danger, citing traditional beliefs about thevolcano, as well as the need to continue working. (BBN) |
Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 11:16am
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Meriapi is located 8 volocanos to the right of Jakarta
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Indonesia/Maps/map_indonesia_volcanoes.html - http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Indonesia/Maps/map_indonesia_volcanoes.html
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Posted By: Lutosh
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 11:25am
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Volcanoes Worldwide Become Increasingly Active May 13, 2006 09:40 AM EST
By Sher Zieve – The Southwest Research Centre is reporting increased activity amongst multiple volcanoes. Although Other areas where volcanoes under an “orange alert” (volcano is in eruption or eruption may occur at any time) include-but are not limited to-Costa Rica, Mexico, Guatemala, Papua New Guinea, Antarctica, Philippines, Africa, Italy and Ecuador. A “red alert” (significant eruption is occurring or explosive eruption is expected at any time) has also been issued for http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/14561.html - http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/14561.html |
Posted By: Lutosh
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 11:29am
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Thousands Flee Slopes of By CHRIS BRUMMITT Thousands of people fled the fertile slopes of Villages on Throughout the day, volcanic tremors shook the ground, some strong enough to send people running in fear. After nightfall, fiery magma from the volcano's cauldron lit up the bottoms of clouds above the nearly 9,700-foot peak, and cascades of bright red stones tumbled down the mountainside. Many people already had evacuated from homes closest to Merapi's crater after the volanco recently emerged from several years of relative quiet, but authorities said as many as 7,000 living farther down the slopes had refused to go and leave behind precious livestock and crops. It wasn't clear how many of those obeyed the government's evacuation order Saturday. Groups of men who sent their families away were seen chatting around fires to keep warm during the night, guarding their homes against looters. Edi, a 30-year-old villager, said he would stay unless he received a clear signal from the mountain's spirits that an eruption was at hand. "People around here believe that if Merapi is going to explode there will be a sign, a magical sign," he said, sitting on a mat sipping coffee. "Either it comes in a dream, or in the form of a hallucination." Although most Indonesians are Muslim, many also follow animist beliefs and worship ancient spirits. Often at full moons, they trek to crater rims and throw in rice, jewelry and live animals to appease the volcanoes. Merapi, about 250 miles east of Indonesia's capital, Jakarta, is one of at least 129 active volcanoes in the country, which lies along the Pacific "Ring of Fire" _ a series of fault lines that feed volcanoes stretching from the Western Hemisphere through Japan and into Southeast Asia. Merapi last erupted in 1994, sending out a cloud of searing gas that burned 60 people to death. About 1,300 people were killed when it erupted in 1930. One man who defied the order to evacuate, Baijo, 30, said he was not worried about the risks of staying behind. "I am not afraid. This is normal. We are looking after the village. If not, thieves will come," he said. Some farmers said they had not seen any volcanic activity themselves so decided to remain on their land despite being urged to leave by the revered Sultan Sri Hamengkubuwono, who is also the regional governor in Yogyakarta, a city of 1 million people just 11 miles from Merapi. "We will not leave soon because of our livestock," said one cattle raiser, who declined to give his name. All roads leading up the mountain were closed as chunks of glowing pumice blew from Merapi's depths into the sky and burning gas fumes wafted through the air. Authorities put the area on highest alert after observing two days of steady lava flow from the volcano. "Because there have been constant lava flows that cause hot gases, we have raised the status to the highest level," said Bambang Dwiyanto, head of the region's volcanology center. Experts recorded 27 volcanic tremors and eruptions of at least 14 plumes of hot ash Saturday, said Dr. Ratdomo Purbo, who heads an observation post at Merapi. He said a stream of lava extended nearly a mile down the mountain's side. http://www.mwcsun.com/feeds/apcontent/apstories/apstorysection/D8HJ20BO0.xml.txt/resources_apstoryview - http://www.mwcsun.com/feeds/apcontent/apstories/apstorysection/D8HJ20BO0.xml.txt/resources_apstoryview |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 11:47am
So, besides the fact that this country is impoverished, largly unsanitary and crowded - I'm thinking that if this 'family' cluster has, like others, in the past remained mostly to themselves, they hopefully have kept the contamination right there. (we're hoping) So, when/if other family evacuate with the other 30,000 residents that cluster has now been extendedz? And we're still not sure how the other 12 people are associated with them -- if they are a new cluster or HCW who have come in contact with them, etc. etc.......!
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Sure2Survive wrote:Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 12:58pm
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Quote ReadyMom: "So, besides the fact that this country is impoverished, largly unsanitary and crowded - I'm thinking that if this 'family' cluster has, like others, in the past remained mostly to themselves, they hopefully have kept the contamination right there. (we're hoping) So, when/if other family evacuate with the other 30,000 residents that cluster has now been extendedz? And we're still not sure how the other 12 people are associated with them -- if they are a new cluster or HCW who have come in contact with them, etc. etc.......!"
Check the maps above:
The potential cluster is located in the Northern tip of the island Sumatra.
The volcano is located on the island of Java below Sumatra. Java in the past had H5N1 infections they are detailed on the map. However unless they transfer the 30,000 residents to the island of Sumatra... the exacuees should not come into contact with the new cluster.
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Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 1:49pm
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Use the scroll bar at bottom and side of pict to navigate to the right and top to see recent Human H5N1 infections. Note these are not the recent clusters found on Sumatra the Island above Java where the Merapi Volcano is located.
Lutosh Quote article "Some farmers said they had not seen any volcanic activity themselves so decided to remain on their land despite being urged to leave by the revered Sultan Sri Hamengkubuwono, who is also the regional governor in Yogyakarta, a city of 1 million people just 11 miles from Merapi."
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 2:34pm
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[/QUOTE] Check the maps above:
The potential cluster is located in the Northern tip of the island Sumatra.
The volcano is located on the island of Java below Sumatra. [/QUOTE]
Got it! Thanks for the clarification!! -k
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Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 2:37pm
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[QUOTE=ReadyMom]
[/QUOTE] Check the maps above:
The potential cluster is located in the Northern tip of the island Sumatra.
The volcano is located on the island of Java below Sumatra. [/QUOTE]
Got it! Thanks for the clarification!! -k [/QUOTE]
No problem... just trying to sort it out myself... I do not have any info on recent confirmed H5N1 infections after April 2006 occuring around the Merapi Volcano...
Does anyone have this info?
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Posted By: JaxMax
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 7:55pm
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Jhetta-
Thanks for the maps, they look good.
Regardless of which Island the earthquakes and volvcanoes erupt on, it is clear that Indonesia has such widespread distribution of H5N1 that it is endemic in their birds.
Accordingly, wherever these catastrophes occur they will reduce an already primitive sanitation in the face of H5N1 in bird in a country of grave concern to the WHO. These natural disasters, (and Indonesia gets a 5 or greater earthquake almost every day- forget about the volcanoes), are a catalyst for further enhanced H5N1 H2H communicablility.
It is NOT coincidence that Indonesia has significant Human H5N1 deaths and now clusters, and that it worries the WHO.
Regretably, it is inevitable.
------------- He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible |
Posted By: Samoa
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:35pm
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A "cluster" does not a pandemic make. Don't let's jump to
conclusions here. You guys yelling, "Cover-up, Cover-up", give
the rest of us a bad image. What is scarey to me is that Rural Indonesia is so backward that persons may perish from the disease without it ever being noted as BF. |
Posted By: andrew p
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:43pm
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The comments on the latest post at Effect Measure are worth reading.
According to Dr. Niman the latest is that a 5th family member has died and 2 more are deteriorating. I'm glad many eyes are watching this closely. The huge difference between the next pandemic and 1918 is that news gets around these days! ------------- It wasn't raining when Noah built the Ark. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 8:59pm
   Seismic MonitorSun May 14 3:46:39 GMT Standard Time 2006 |
Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 9:05pm
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Moderate quake rocks Indonesia, no casualties or damage Fri May 12, 2006 3:59 PM IST JAKARTA (Reuters) - An earthquake measuring 5.9 rocked the southern tip of Indonesia's Sumatra island on Friday, but there were no reports of casualties or damage, the Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics said. Residents in the capital, Jakarta, also felt the quake, whose epicentre lay in the Sunda Straits about 30 km south of Bandar Lampung city. The straits separate Sumatra and the main Java island, and Bandar Lampung city lies 175 km west of Jakarta. "It's in the sea and there are no reports of damage or a tsunami," Fauzi, an official from the agency, told Reuters. "The paintings on the wall moved and everyone shouted, 'earthquake', but afterwards we were calm. Nobody came out of the building," said a Jakarta resident who works on the 24th floor. Earthquakes are frequent in Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country. Its 17,000 islands sprawl along a belt of intense volcanic and seismic activity, part of what is called the Pacific Ring of Fire. A powerful undersea quake off the northern tip of Sumatra in December 2004 caused a devastating tsunami and caused widespread destruction.
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 9:12pm
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http://www.iris.edu/seismon/ - http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
The Above site is the seismic monitor site for Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology. it ia a fabulous site. I just have a really bad feeling about all this. I also don't like the upcoming date either...06/06/06 or 666 just to creepy... With everything that is happening in the world, the volcanoes, the earthquakes, multiple possible pandemic strains..... I just feel we all should say some prayers. It might be time for all of us, what ever Religion you practice, to get right with God. Something is differently going on....
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 9:17pm
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Current Situation of Avian Influenza and human cases related to the H5 virus subtype
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Posted By: Gimme
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 9:28pm
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diane,
Wow that map!!! So many earthquakes, and the volcano getting ready to erupt is all part of that, I think.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/05/14/ap/world/mainD8HJ9OT80.shtml - http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/05/14/ap/world/mainD8HJ9OT80.shtml
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Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 13 2006 at 11:32pm
Thanks Diane 
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 2:21am
| That cluster is now 6 dead in one family |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 2:56am
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Diane-
Kilt- Please put references (URLs) for the posts. I like to check them back each time. Thanks! |
Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:01am
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So, are these 4 "new" cases? They don't match up in age with a list of current people in the cluster? Help - I'm confused!
http://www.metrotvnews.com/berita.asp?id=16630 RSPI SULIANTI SAROSO treated four patients BIRD FLU 14/05/2006 12:15 - Social the Culture/Metro Siang The Sulianti Saroso Infection hospital, Jakarta. (Metro the TV) Metrotvnews.com, Jakarta: The Number Of new patients that was expected suspect bird flu in the Infection Hospital (RSPI) Sulianti Saroso, Jakarta, Ahad (14/5), numbering four people. Three patients were treated in intensive maintenance space (ICU), one him again in the Intensive Cempaka Maintenance. The patient beinisial "B", was four years old, was treated in ICU since May 11. "B" became the patient with suspect bird flu because of having his family's member with initials "M." (43 years) beforehand has suffered avian influenza. "M." became the patient suspect bird flu/because of having his property poultry that died. "M. was" treated" in ICU RSPI Sulianti Saroso since last May 8. Moreover, the patient with initials "Mr" (12 years) also was treated in ICU. "Mr" it was suspected suffered bird flu because his neighbour maintained the poultry. Now the newest patient, the man had the initials "H" (27 years), was treated in Intensive Cempaka Maintenance space. "H" it was suspected suffered bird flu because of maintaining the poultry. () |
Posted By: unpathedhaunts
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:04am
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JAKARTA (Reuters) - An Indonesian toddler who had tested positive for bird flu according to local tests died on Sunday, a senior health ministry official said.
The 18-month boy's blood sample has been sent to a World Health Organisation-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong for confirmation. Local tests are not considered definitive. I Nyoman Kandun, director general of disease control at the health ministry, said the boy from North Sumatra was one of a family of five who had tested positive for bird flu according to local tests. Three of them have died in the past week. Another health ministry official said the family had eaten chicken but had not had any direct contact with sick fowl, the usual mode of transmission of the disease to humans. The WHO has confirmed 25 fatalities from avian influenza in the world's fourth most populous nation, the second highest number of human deaths after Vietnam. The virus has spread in birds at an alarming rate in recent months, sweeping through parts of Europe, down into Africa and across into South Asia. It is difficult for humans to catch, but experts fear the virus could evolve into a form passed easily from human to human, causing a pandemic that could kill millions. In Indonesia, the H5N1 virus has been reported in birds in about two-thirds of the country's provinces. www.birdflubreakingnews.com/templates/birdflu/window.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Ffeeds.feedburner.com%2FReuters%2FGlobalCoverage2%3Fm%3D3480 |
Posted By: oknut
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:11am
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Indonesian tests confirm five people from one family died of bird flu The two men, two women and an eight-year-old girl lived closely with each other in the Karo district of North Sumatra and came from ”the same family tree,” said I Nyoman Kandun, the health ministry’s director general of disease control. Kandun said the five had been in contact with sick poultry and pigs near their homes before they fell ill and died within days of each other over the past three weeks. Results from local tests are routinely sent to a laboratory accredited by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in “We are trying to prevent a possible outbreak by conducting limited culling in the area and performing better surveillance,” Kandun told AFP. He ssid three other people from the group also tested positive but remain alive. If the local tests are confirmed by the WHO-accredited laboratory, Asked if he was concerned about a possible wider spread of bird flu in the district, Kandun said: “Who in A 30-year-old resident of The WHO’s Asia chief Shigeru Omi this month urged it to work harder at grassroots level to combat the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu. Most deaths in Bird flu has killed 115 people since late 2003, mostly in http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2006/May/theworld_May515.xml§ion=theworld&col= |
Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:21am
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This is from another post in "Suspect H5N1 Bird Flu Cluster in North Sumatra".....dated 5/11.
9 Suspected Sumatra H5N1 Cluster Patients ~ Combined from articles at bottom of page: 1. Fuji Ginting, Roy's father, Fuji, 40, Died on May 4 at Elisabeth Hospital. 2. Anta Beru Ginting, 29 years, Died on Wednesday May 5 at dawn earlier at Adam Malik Hospital 3. Roy Karo-Karo, 19 years. He Died Tuesday May 9 2006 4. Praise Br Ginting (Roys Mother) Died May 4. Both of them were expected strong terjangkit the bird flu virus. Five relatives at this time still were treated intensive care in the same hospital, namely: 5. Jones Ginting (25), 6. Bonny Karo-karo (18) 7. Renaita Beru Tarigan a pre-schooler (1.8 years) The last two patients who were treated were 8. Rafael Ginting, 8 years, was treated in RS Elisabeth, Street Imam Breakingprep Bonjol Medan. (Medan is a town in Northern Sumatra) 9. Obviously Ulina Ginting (8). I can't match up the 4 "new" ones in my post to this list? Opinions? |
Posted By: oknut
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:29am
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Didn't some other, earlier articles mention an additional 12 that were being observed?
Not sure if it was the same cluster area. Maybe I'm getting these confused because I don't see them mentioned in the new articles. |
Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 4:39am
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Initially it was reported that 12 additonal people were under observation. I posted this yesterday from the "Indonesia-Ripe for Genetic Mutation" thread under Discussion:
"I copied this from the website of the map. It's a little more information, in the fact that they mention the other 12 people are in intensive care. They mention it twice. While 12 assumption patients of other bird flu were still being treated intensive in RSUP Adam the Owner. Worry with the spreading of this deadly virus, the Government of the North Sumatran Province instruct the Health Service of the Karo Land to steril the area that it was suspected became the source of the spread. The sterilisation was carried out in a radius of one kilometre. Officially North Sumatran Livestock Breeding carried out the vaccination and spray in the house environment of the casualties. The above translation indicates 12 more suspected cases of H5N1 bird flu are being treated in intensive care at RSUP Adam, where five family members have already died. This may be why the two other hospitalized family members left the public hospital and are now in a private hospital, RS Elizabeth. 12 additional suspect cases are cause for concern. The first fatality was on May 4, followed by deaths on May 9, 10 and two deaths on May 12. More information on the 12 hospitalized patients would be useful". Here's the site for the map: http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng I scrolled down from the map and clicked on Sumatra and found the description of the 12 people. So, I'm sort of wondering if these 4 people in my above post are part of the 12? It's getting too confusing. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:13am
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What are the most important warning signals that a pandemic is about to start? The most important warning signal comes when clusters of patients with clinical symptoms of influenza, closely related in time and place, are detected, as this suggests human-to-human transmission is taking place. For similar reasons, the detection of cases in health workers caring for H5N1 patients would suggest human-to-human transmission. Detection of such events should be followed by immediate field investigation of every possible case to confirm the diagnosis, identify the source, and determine whether human-to-human transmission is occurring. Studies of viruses, conducted by specialized WHO reference laboratories, can corroborate field investigations by spotting genetic and other changes in the virus indicative of an improved ability to infect humans. This is why WHO repeatedly asks affected countries to share viruses with the international research community. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:21am
| I'm confused too. Are there 12 suspected or 8 suspected. I think 5 or 6 died. Of the 8 or 12? or are there 20 suspected?? |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:48am
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I found the answer, it looks like 20 suspected.
www.birdflubreakingnews.com |
Posted By: oknut
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:55am
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This is very frightening. Now the nurse showing symptoms as well.
Aren't they entering the normal flu season in that part of the world? Think my brain just went into pause mode |
Posted By: unpathedhaunts
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:57am
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H5N1 Symptoms in North Sumatra Health Care Worker
Recombinomics Commentary May 14, 2006 A nurse who attended to some of the patients also came down with an influenza-like illness, although she seems to have shown symptoms prior to treating the patients, according to Dr. Kandun. She and others in the family's village are currently being tested for the virus. Symptoms in health care workers caring for H5N1 bird flu patients are cause for concern. There are eight family members with birds lfu symptoms in a cluster in Medan, Indonesia. Six of the family members have died and at least 5 members in the cluster have tested positive for H5N1. This is the largest fatal cluster of H5N1 reported to date. Media reports have indicated the hospital in Medan has 12 additional patients with bird flu symptoms. The relationship of these 12 patients to the 8 family members (who live in Karo but were hospialized in Medan) remains unclear, as do the dates of admission. The index case for the familial cluster died on May 4 and the family members were admitted on or about the same day. It remains unclear when the additional 12 cases were admitted or if any of these patients had contact with the health care worker with symptoms. More information on the HCW and the 12 additional patients would be useful. |
Posted By: unpathedhaunts
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 6:58am
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So they have a nurse with flu-like symptoms treating H5N1 patients?????
A recipe for disaster? |
Posted By: oknut
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 7:12am
| Regardless of which came first - chicken or egg - this looks very bad. |
Posted By: niman
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 7:15am
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[QUOTE=Ruth]I found the answer, it looks like 20 suspected. http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com%5b/QUOTE - www.birdflubreakingnews.com[/QUOTE ] There are more than 20
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05140603/H5N1_Sumatra_HCW.html - http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05140603/H5N1_Sumatra_HCW.html
(and more in Jakarta)
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 7:26am
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A light bulb just went off in my head. I get it now. Niman is Dr. Niman (sorry) posting for Recombinomics.
I see you on Fluwikie also. So your commentary is based off of the fact that you have a Phd. in this. Sounds reliable and accurate to me. Now I'm really worried. |
Posted By: niman
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 7:39am
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB114313691979806517-pUgCtLCRrZ3UZb4r3_0bSNbFYts_20070324.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top - http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB114313691979806517-pUgCtLCRrZ3UZb4r3_0bSNbFYts_20070324.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 7:56am
| I just read the above article. Thank you. When I'm online, I never really know who is who. This helps alot. Never had a problem with people who question others or question some of mainstream reasoning. Keep up the good work. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 8:07am
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H5 Fixed font:
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N1 Symptoms in North Sumatra Health Care Worker
members were admitted on or about the same day. It remains unclear when the additional 12 cases were admitted or if any of these patients had contact with the health care worker with symptoms.Posted By: Eagles Dancing
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 8:43am
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Lutosh (Cindy) I know this is off topic but I live in Coal City and I see you live in Greene County. We are pretty close here in good ole' IN. I would like have your personal email address so we can be in contact when the BF hits. You seemed really informed on a lot of things and I would like to catch up to speed, seeing I am new to this forum. My screen name is Eagles Dancing. My email address is mailto:eaglesdancing@ccrtc.com - eaglesdancing@ccrtc.com if your are interested in emailing me. Don't worry I'm not a male perv, just a fellow Indiana neighbor who is looking for local support during these trying times. Looking to hear from you soon. Lisa------------- As for me and my house, we shall trust the Lord. |
Posted By: MAJDAD
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 8:52am
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OK Folks add 4 more to the hunt we are now at 24 in one village with a health care worker. If WHO is not on this NOW we are in for one heck of a ride. We need to Watch Jakarta. When it starts showing up there in numbers then it will break into the international Air Corridors and start the world wide burn.
http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/templates/birdflu/window.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.recombinomics.com%2FNews%2F05140604%2FH5N1_Jakarta_Pandemic.html - http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/templates/birdflu/window.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.recombinomics.com%2FNews%2F05140604%2FH5N1_Jakarta_Pandemic.html
Suspect H5N1 Patients in Jakarta Increase Pandemic Concerns Recombinomics Commentary May 14, 2006 Three patients were treated in intensive maintenance space (ICU), one him again in the Intensive Cempaka Maintenance. The patient beinisial "B", was four years old, was treated in ICU since May 11. "B" became the patient with suspect bird flu because of having his family's member with initials "M." (43 years) beforehand has suffered avian influenza. "M." became the patient suspect bird flu/because of having his property poultry that died. "M. was" treated" in ICU RSPI Sulianti Saroso since last May 8. Moreover, the patient with initials "Mr" (12 years) also was treated in ICU. "Mr" it was suspected suffered bird flu because his neighbor maintained the poultry. Now the newest patient, the man had the initials "H" (27 years), was treated in Intensive Cempaka Maintenance space. "H" it was suspected suffered bird flu because of maintaining the poultry. The above translation describes additional suspect H5N1 bird flu cases in Jakarta. Included is yet another familial cluster (between "B" and "M"). These are in addition to the family of eight in North Sumatra where http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05140602/H5N1_Sumatra_Fatal_6.html - six have died , and five are http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05120605/H5N1_Sumatra_Confirmed.html - H5N1 positive . There is also a http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05140603/H5N1_Sumatra_HCW.html - health care worker with symptoms as well as http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05120604/H5N1_Medan_12.html - 12 additional suspect cases who are hospitalized in Medan. These additional cases increase pandemic concerns, http://*************/forum/showthread.php?t=5805 - Media Link http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_Map_2005_QinghaiL.html - |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 8:57am
 Speechless ....
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Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:00am
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So these 4 are from Jakarta. They are not part of the 12. Nor are they part of the cluster in Sumatra.
I just don't have words........................ |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:07am
oke ... now I have words... 'cause I just had a 'conversation' w/ DH ... he just read the Sunday paper where it's stated that BF is slowing down and the #'s in Vietnam & China are stopped. He thinks I'm crazy getting so worked up and that I have no idea who you all are and if any of this is true!  Also made it clear that Indonesia is a 3rd world country ......! I'm talking to a wall here! And this is so frightening! -k
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Posted By: MAJDAD
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:17am
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These 4 are not from Jakarta they are from Medina. Jakarta is where they have taken the first cases too. It may well be contained in Medina and that means we are OK. Watch Jakarta for the break out.
------------- Major Dad hopes you are all alive and well and looking out for each other |
Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:32am
Dr Niman... have you heard anything in regard to these pigs.... I am assuming that they "could/might" have contributed to the fact that efficiency of transmission to humans seems to have increased in this cluster.
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Posted By: bjregg
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:33am
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ReadyMom,
Calm yourself, you have done and are doing what is right for you and your family. We have no control relative to the spread and mutation of this problem, however, we need to keep in mind that each of us is responsible for our actions and planning. Take care, bj
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Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:35am
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Quotes from Nimans latest commentary are:
"The above translation describes additional suspect H5N1 bird flu cases in Jakarta." and "There is also a health care worker with symptoms as well as 12 additional suspect cases who arehospitalized in Medan ." I may be wrong, I've been wrong before. |
Posted By: MAJDAD
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 9:47am
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Let us not be too hasty here. We are all sitting on the edge of our seats and holding our breath. We need confirmation and we need to know FOR SURE that it has moved to Jakarta. Everyone take a deep breath. Enjoy today (Ready Mom you and DH go out and have a little fun) all WE can do is watch and wait. ------------- Major Dad hopes you are all alive and well and looking out for each other |
Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 10:04am
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Here is a graphic last updated March 30th of Jakarta with recent H5N1 infections. The Triangles are human infections... the circles are animal. Use the scroll bar to scroll to the right to see more infections to the SouthEast of Jakarta in and around Bandung
Red Jan - April 2006
Light Blue September-December 2005
Yellow New events before March 30th
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 10:28am
Fifth bird flu death in family
JAKARTA, Indonesia A fifth member of an Indonesian family has died of bird flu on the island of Sumatra. A senior Indonesian medical official says an investigation into the source of the infection is under way. The official also says samples from the patients have been sent to a World Health Organization-accredited lab in Hong Kong for confirmation.
Indonesia's death toll from the H-Five-N-One bird flu strain stands at 25. The toll is the second highest in the world, behind Vietnam.
Several victims have been members of the same family or lived near each other. Health officials closely study such groups of cases, known as "clusters."
Scientists are trying to determine whether the virus has mutated into a strain that can pass easily between humans. Such a scenario could be a precursor to a pandemic.
http://www.kpho.com/Global/story.asp?S=4901562&nav=23Ku - http://www.kpho.com/Global/story.asp?S=4901562&nav=23Ku
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 10:42am
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I thought the most recently reported four were a second cluster. The family cluster of approx 8 is in North Sumatra - also the health care worker and 12 other various assorted cases are here as well. The patients we found out about today are another family cluster on the island of Java - the city is Jakarta. Take a look at the link below. Sumatra is in the bottom corner and Java is the island to the southeast. I'll see if I can find a better map. What do you think? http://www.atlapedia.com/online/maps/political/Malaysia_etc.htm |
Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 10:46am
I posted this on page one... hope it helps
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 10:57am
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Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:21am
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Metrotvnews.com, Medan:
Another from eight patients who were expected terjangkit bird flu in North Sumatra, died. He was Renata Boru Taringan, 1.6 years. Renata died to Ahad, around struck 02. 00 WIB when undergoing the maintenance in Adam's Hospital the Owner, Medan. His body was afterwards brought to his house in the Simbelang Fortification Village, the Subdistrict of three bows, the Karo Regency, North Sumatra. Renata became casualties died sixth resulting from the ferocity of bird flu that infected one family. Apart from Renata, his family's five members died it was suspected resulting from bird flu. Two people more up to now still are remaining. A person is currently treated in RSUD Adam the Owner. Whereas another whether where after bolting in the hospital. The casualties died namely Rafael Ginting (10 years), Boni Karokaro (18 years), Roy Karokaro (19 years), Anta Boru Ginting (29 years), and Praise Boru Ginting (40 years). Whereas two that still was living he Jones Ginting (25 years) and Obviously Boru Ginting (35 years) As a result of bird flu spread, villagers's other attitude that expelled villagers the Simbelang Fortification, the place of the family of bird flu casualties was complained about . For example, the treatment of children during the school as well as the transport that refused to bring these villagers. Up to now, the local Health Service was still researching the source of the spread of bird flu in the Karo Regency. However, Siti Fadil -lah Supari Health Minister expected the source of the spread from manure. http://www.metrotvnews.com/berita.asp?id=16650 
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Posted By: JaxMax
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:28am
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Analysis-
I will leave the map location analysis and the ferreting out of specific clusters to the more computer literate. Aurora, Jhetta and others are doing a great job, and this is why I monitor this website.
What I want to do is take a moment and look at the entire forest, not just individual trees.
We know the following 1-5, from numerous post on this site:
1. Indonesia is endemic for bird H5N1. They have numerous chickens and people own birds as pets.
2. Indonesia has 25 confirmed H5N1 human fatalities
3. The WHO expressed a deep concern, almost fatalistic, about Indonesia,
just last week.
4. Indonesia suffers from an earthquake almost every day. As others have pointed out, some are on land some are on water. Usually 5.1, yesterday a 6.1.Add volcanoes and you will stress a already rudimentary sanitation system.
5. Now we have 1 or 2 clusters, whichever the case may ultimately be.
Now we have Vietnam and Thailand mounting a public relations offensive that they have solved the H5N1 problem.
Why now?
Vietnam and Thailand are not under any type of CDC quarrantine or sanctions.
Why suddenly announce they are H5N1 free?
Why did the official Chinese news agency Xinhua criticize Indonesia's containment efforts last week?
Any time there is a quantum change in news, we need to review what has happened inthe last week.No one else is doing this. We saw the same type of intel constructed from disclosures in England about the swan.
I (you may choose the appropriate letter)
a. speculate
b. guess
c. have paranoid delusions
d. analyze
e. strongly suspect
that the WHO knew or suspected the clusters at the time of their press release last week. I admit I have no evidence of this, no hyperlink. It just fits a pattern.
It would also seem timely that Thailand and Vietnam are attempting to distance themselves from the feared H2H readilly transmissible H5N1 of Indonesia, at least in public relations.Indonesia is their neighbor to the south. ------------- He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible |
Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:33am
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Tests confirm five Indonesians from one family died of bird flu
http://www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=12677 - http://www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=12677
Antara News ~ The Indonesian News Agency
May 15, 2006
Tests confirm five Indonesians from one family died of bird flu
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Five people from the same family have died of bird flu in Indonesia according to local tests, a health official said Sunday.
The two men, two women and an eight-year-old girl lived closely with each other in the Karo district of North Sumatra and came from "the same family tree," I Nyoman Kandun, the health ministry's director general of disease control, was quoted by AFP as saying. Kandun said the five had been in contact with sick poultry and pigs near their homes before they fell ill and died within days of each other over the past three weeks. Results from local tests are routinely sent to a laboratory accredited by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in Hong Kong for confirmation, but are normally accurate. "We are trying to prevent a possible outbreak by conducting limited culling in the area and performing better surveillance," Kandun told AFP. He ssid three other people from the group also tested positive but remain alive. If the local tests are confirmed by the WHO-accredited laboratory, Indonesia's death toll from avian influenza would rise to 30. Asked if he was concerned about a possible wider spread of bird flu in the district, Kandun said: "Who in Indonesia is not at risk of being infected with bird flu?" A 30-year-old resident of Jakarta's satellite town of Tangerang was last week confirmed as Indonesia's 25th fatality. Highest number of fatalities Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous nation, has witnessed more bird flu deaths than any other country this year. It has the second highest number of fatalities reported in the world since 2003, after Vietnam. The WHO's Asia chief Shigeru Omi this month urged it to work harder at grassroots level to combat the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu. Most deaths in Indonesia have been in the capital and its surroundings, where many people live in close proximity to poultry despite the urban environment. Bird flu has killed 115 people since late 2003, mostly in Asia. Experts fear the virus may mutate into a form that can pass easily between humans, sparking a pandemic. (*) |
Posted By: oknut
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:33am
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Very perceptive and well put JaxMax.
As usual, I agree with your opinion that the "bird flu free" news is a smokescreen or diversion. It sure doesn't help us convince the rest to prep. What are they thinking? |
Posted By: JaxMax
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:39am
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oknut-
If Indonesia has real H2H family clusters, and H2H health care clusters, everyone is just in damage control mode.I suspect each country had a planned public relations response prepared in the event of H2H, much like the military has armed contingency plans.
The plans themselves are not important, the fact the plans have been executed is supremely important. ------------- He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible |
Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:43am
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Jax... I would not be comfortable with number 4 unless we get some real data regarding damage....
We are getting propaganda pumped at us from Asia and Europe.
When I see info contrary to the facts at hand... I start wondering what they are covering up...
I start to hunt for the truth... we need to look for our data in places other than the media...
Does anyone have any ideas!
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Posted By: Trident/Delta
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:54am
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JAKARTA, Indonesia -- A fifth member of an Indonesian family has died of bird flu, according to local tests, a senior medical official said Sunday. The other four died from the disease early last week, said Nyoman Kandun, head of the Health Ministry's office of communicable disease control. In all, eight members of the family in Tanah Karo village on Sumatra are suspected of having contracted the virulent H5N1 bird flu virus. Indonesia's official human death toll from the virus is now 25, the world's second-highest after Vietnam, which recorded about four dozen deaths but where international health experts said earlier this year that outbreaks of H5N1 infections in people and poultry had been largely stamped out. Officials pay particular attention to cases of multiple related deaths such as those in Indonesia. The virus now is almost always transmitted from birds to humans, and experts study "cluster" cases looking for signs that H5N1 may have mutated into a form easily passed between humans - a scenario that many fear could trigger a global human pandemic. Kandun said samples from the patients had been sent to a World Health Organization-accredited lab in Hong Kong for confirmation that they died of bird flu. He also revealed that a sixth family member died previously, but samples from the body had not been taken for laboratory investigation. "The person died earlier and has been buried," he said. Asked whether doctors would obtain samples from the body, Kandun declined to comment. "We are continuing to investigate this case," he said. "We are trying to find the source of the virus." He said investigators were checking poultry near the family's village, since veterinarians had found no signs of bird flu among chickens and other animals in the village itself. T/D note: interesting that the **** chickens DON'T have the virus! International experts hope Vietnam's campaign to vaccinate its poultry against H5N1 will serve as an example for other countries in dealing with the virus, which has killed more than 100 people in all. Once the epicenter for bird flu, Vietnam hasn't had seen any people infected since November and there haven't been any poultry outbreaks since December. "We are actually disease-free in Vietnam for the moment," Hans Troedsson, the World Health Organization representative in Vietnam, said in late March. "We're probably not virus-free, but what the mass vaccination has done is reduce the virus load in the environment - we have less virus circulating." Vietnam started its nationwide eradication campaign in August 2005. Officials in the poor communist nation say they vaccinated millions of chickens and ducks, slaughtered millions more and educated citizens about the disease. Outside experts, however, caution that immunization is not a simple solution. It is so expensive that "you just can't keep it up," said Peter Roeder, an animal health expert with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization who advises Asian countries on bird flu. Source: http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060514/API/605140628 - http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pb.../API/605140628 |
Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:55am
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JaxMax: I agree with you that WHO was well aware of the situation when they made their press release last week. I think China is critisizing Indo because Indo is being more "upfront" and China thinks that they are making them look bad (because they've been concealing it for so long...and still are).
Maybe as far as Thailand and Vietnam, if they can claim to be completely clean of H5N1, and they wait....just a little bit longer.....they can come out and say it spread from Indonesia to them. It all started in Indonesia...... what do you think? |
Posted By: Trident/Delta
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:55am
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JAKARTA, Indonesia -- A fifth member of an Indonesian family has died of bird flu, according to local tests, a senior medical official said Sunday. The other four died from the disease early last week, said Nyoman Kandun, head of the Health Ministry's office of communicable disease control. In all, eight members of the family in Tanah Karo village on Sumatra are suspected of having contracted the virulent H5N1 bird flu virus. Indonesia's official human death toll from the virus is now 25, the world's second-highest after Vietnam, which recorded about four dozen deaths but where international health experts said earlier this year that outbreaks of H5N1 infections in people and poultry had been largely stamped out. Officials pay particular attention to cases of multiple related deaths such as those in Indonesia. The virus now is almost always transmitted from birds to humans, and experts study "cluster" cases looking for signs that H5N1 may have mutated into a form easily passed between humans - a scenario that many fear could trigger a global human pandemic. Kandun said samples from the patients had been sent to a World Health Organization-accredited lab in Hong Kong for confirmation that they died of bird flu. He also revealed that a sixth family member died previously, but samples from the body had not been taken for laboratory investigation. "The person died earlier and has been buried," he said. Asked whether doctors would obtain samples from the body, Kandun declined to comment. "We are continuing to investigate this case," he said. "We are trying to find the source of the virus." He said investigators were checking poultry near the family's village, since veterinarians had found no signs of bird flu among chickens and other animals in the village itself. T/D note: interesting that the **** chickens DON'T have the virus! International experts hope Vietnam's campaign to vaccinate its poultry against H5N1 will serve as an example for other countries in dealing with the virus, which has killed more than 100 people in all. Once the epicenter for bird flu, Vietnam hasn't had seen any people infected since November and there haven't been any poultry outbreaks since December. "We are actually disease-free in Vietnam for the moment," Hans Troedsson, the World Health Organization representative in Vietnam, said in late March. "We're probably not virus-free, but what the mass vaccination has done is reduce the virus load in the environment - we have less virus circulating." Vietnam started its nationwide eradication campaign in August 2005. Officials in the poor communist nation say they vaccinated millions of chickens and ducks, slaughtered millions more and educated citizens about the disease. Outside experts, however, caution that immunization is not a simple solution. It is so expensive that "you just can't keep it up," said Peter Roeder, an animal health expert with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization who advises Asian countries on bird flu. Source: http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060514/API/605140628 - http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pb.../API/605140628 |
Posted By: JaxMax
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 11:56am
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Jhetta
You raise an excellent point, an earthquake does not equate to physical damage.
My analysis is limited to logging onto the US Geological Sevice site and checking for earthquakes. I have no way of knowing whether there is massive property damage or not
I would not gamble against the odds of physical damage, however. For example this weekend:
May 12, 2006 a 4.9 and 5.5 quake in Indonesia
May 13, 2006 a 5.6
May 14, 2006 a 4.9 so far today.
Earthquakes day after day, week after week, would seem to require some type of damage and infrastructure degradation.
This is the site I look at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php - http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php ------------- He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible |
Posted By: JaxMax
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 12:04pm
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Commonground-
I do not think Thailand or Vietnam's press offensive will have any substantive significance.It will not work if there is readilly transmissible H2H. American's geographic illiteracy will lump Indonesia with China and Vietnam, and probably rightly so in this instance.
However, from an intelligence perspective, it is VERY significant that they are launching a PR offensive since it shows they may BELIEVE or even KNOW there is readilly transmissble H2H H5N1 NOW. ------------- He who walks with the wise grows wise, but a companion of fools suffers harm.Proverbs 13:20, The Bible |
Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 12:14pm
| Gotcha JaxMax! Very good insight. |
Posted By: oknut
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 12:37pm
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Survivor just posted an article in the Discussion area under the "Can you believe it" thread.
Survivor went hunting for possible motives for the "virus free" announcements and found something. Check it out. |
Posted By: Jhetta
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 12:46pm
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Jax... decided to do a little digging. Looks you are right on the money regarding "rudimentary sanitation systems" it seems wastewater collection, treatment and disposal are quite limited in some areas.... the water collection, treatment and supply does not look to be modern. This report should help change this...
Limitied sanitation and rudimentary treatement for water supply will not help contain H5N1 infections.
I will check later for 1995-2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 watewater and water treatment contracts for the larger cities for large construction companies like Black &Vech, TIC International, etc... to see what construction standards new plants are held to for communities such as Jakarta and larger communities.
Source: United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/SODA-6NAAF9?OpenDocument - http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/SODA-6NAAF9?OpenDocument Date: 28 Feb 2006 Indonesia: Infrastructure outline concept plan - Kabupaten Aceh Jaya - Water, sanitation, solid waste, drainageEXECUTIVE SUMMARY Chapter VIII "Population Projections" reports Year 2005 population data and projects population for the years 2006 to 2010. The reason for estimating population at Kecamatan level is that infrastructure services are geographic, so it is important to know the location of the demand.
Chapter IX "Water Infrastructure, Sources, and Demands", Part A presents details about the current situation for water supply. Aceh Jaya has never had a PDAM; the pre-tsunami water supply systems for Lamno, Calang, and Teunom were IKK. Part B discusses water quality and suggests that NGOs could be a useful source of data since they analyze samples where they provide water. Part C lists water sources (rivers and springs) in each Kecamatan. Part D forecasts water demand for years 2006 -- 2010 and recommends sizes for water supply for 2008 and 2010. Part D presents the water supply strategy which includes use of gravity systems; slow sand filters; and HDPE pipelines. Part E describes Future Water Supply Infrastructure for Kecamatans Jaya, Sampoiniet, Calang, and Teunom. Chapter X "Sanitation (Human Waste) Infrastructure", Part A explains there is no organized wastewater collection, treatment, or disposal in the Kabupaten. NGOs are installing septic tanks in housing they construct so septage collection and treatment will be needed. Part B discusses aspects of septage collection and treatment at IPLT facilities. Part C estimates septage production in year 2010 and recommends IPLT, to be co-located with the solid waste disposal site, to serve Kecamatans, and to continue pilot studies to develop alternative methods wastewater treatment and disposal.Chapter XI "Solid Waste Infrastructure", Part A explains that in the Kabupaten each community manages its own solid waste collection from residential housing. Disposal is by burying, burning, or dumping into a nearby river or the ocean. Part B estimates solid waste production for the period 2006 to 2010 and recommends developing a final disposal site (TPA) in each Kecamatan. Part C discusses Private Sector Participation (PSP) possibilities in the Solid Waste Sector. Part D presents the strategy for solid waste facilities and services. Part E discusses future facilities for transfer sites (TPS) and for final disposal sites. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 1:49pm
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Posted By: bjregg
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 2:00pm
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Jhetta,
You are so good at finding links and information. What about trying to link into one of the hospitals that are involved in this current situation. I have tried, but I do not have the computer skills required. If you could get any information on the nurse......that would provide alot of information.llll
Good luck, bj
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Posted By: Commonground
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 2:30pm
| Moderators, could we start a new thread please? |
Posted By: unpathedhaunts
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 2:38pm
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NABARRO'S COMMENT
May 14, (foodconsumer.org) - Even as the deadly H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus is devastating flocks in Europe and Africa, the Asian countries such as Vietnam and Thailand, where the disease originated, have remained relatively calm. The deadly march of the avian flu virus had triggered fears of flu p andemic, but these fears have not materialized till now.??Dr. David Nabarro, chief pandemic flu coordinator for the United Nations was full of praise for the way Asia has handled a difficult crisis. He singled out Thailand and Vietnam for the way the governments have responded to the crisis. ??"These are two countries where there has been very strong political leadership, excellent work by government officials, and an intensive engagement of people at community level," he said. "They show that with the right level of engagement, we can reduce the threats posed by bird flu, and I'd like to see the same energy carried through to fruition in other countries as well." ??Vietnam where almost 50 percent of the initial cases were reported has not reported a single human case or an outbreak of flu in poultry this year. Thailand, the second-hardest-hit nation has also not seen a human case for over a year and a poultry outbreak for over six months. ??These signs are being interpreted very positively in health circles and are a welcome relief to one and all. Another break has been the fact that belying expectations, birds making the spring migration north from Africa have not brought the bird flu virus into Europe. ??However, officials say it is too early to declare a win since the virus is till lurking in Myanmar and Indonesia where the WHO is even now investigating the suspected bird flu cases in eight people in a large family. Four of these infections have been fatal. ??But the fact that aggressive measures like "killing infected chickens, inoculating healthy ones, protecting domestic flocks and educating farmers" can successfully contain any bird flu outbreak is proof enough that the battle can be won, reports The New York Times. ??Dr. Nabarro was "cautious in interpreting these shifts in patterns" since very little is known about how the disease spreads or if the current situation was a lull before the storm. Other officials concurred with his views. "To say the disease is 'wiped out' there is probably too strong, too positive," said Dr. Wantanee Kalpravidh, chief of flu surveillance in Southeast Asia for the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, which fights animal diseases.??She added that although Thailand and Vietnam have reported success, they are still on the lookout for the virus, which may reappear anytime. Dr Nabarro pointed out that the two countries had adopted different ways to fight the disease. In Vietnam, vaccination of the poultry was undertaken on a massive scale and all its 220 million chickens were vaccinated last summer. ??Thailand with its large poultry export industry could not afford a vaccination program since it would have led to a widespread ban on its exports. It resorted to culling instead and compensated farmer who lost their poultry stock. Finally, Thailand has also deputized a volunteer in every village to report sick chickens. ??Dr Nabarro praised the Thai strategy of vaccinating fighting cocks, which could bring in thousands of dollars. These fighter cocks are then given passports along with their vaccination records allowing them to travel freely. ??Thailand and Vietnam also did not hold back on the anti-v iral dr ug T amiflu supplies. These supplies were sent to even the smallest regional hospitals and health workers were ordered to begin treating suspected cases even without confirmatory diagnosis, according to Dr. Klaus Stöhr, a flu specialist at the World Health Organization. ??Another possible success case is China, although officials are wont to view it with caution since it concealed the S ARS virus cases. However, Dr Nabarro was confident that Chinese Agriculture Ministry has lived up to its pledge of vaccinating all domestic poultry. He added that he recently met a high-ranking official "who made it clear that they are absolutely determined to get the fullest possible cooperation from provincial authorities."??Even the reported human cases in China have been low over the last two years. This year China reported only 10 cases as compared to 8 last year. "We are hopeful that China has turned the corner," Dr. Nabarro said. But the situation in Cambodia and Laos remained a bit vague, as no poultry outbreaks have been reported, but some officials say this did happen without coming to their notice. ??"Tomorrow, the whole thing could change again," Dr. Nabarro, said. "We need to be on the alert at all times."??Meanwhile, a Dutch environmental group said Thursday that fears of the H5N1 bird flu migrating to flocks of wild birds have not happened so far. Scientists from Wetlands International tested 5,000 wild birds in countries including Tunisia, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Senegal, Malawi and Kenya, but have failed to find the virus. ??The bird flu virus first surfaced in Asia in 1997. Since then it has spread rapidly across Asia and Europe as well as Africa. Till now, the virus has only been transmitted after close contact with infected birds and coming in contact with saliva, nasal secretions, and feces.??According to World Health Organization, 115 humans have so far fallen a victim to highly pathogenic bird flu. Although most deaths have occurred in Asia, the majority of them reported this year have occurred in Turkey. Close contact with poultry is a must for human infection. ??Experts fear that if the virus mutates to a form that is easily transmissible between humans, it could trigger a worldwide pandemic and claim millions of lives. Now that Vietnam and Thailand have kept bird flu in check, the threat of p andemic flu may not come any time soon. ??© 2004-2005 by foodconsumer.org unless otherwise specified.? http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/templates/birdflu/window.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foodconsumer.org%2F777%2F8%2FHas_Asia_eliminated_bird_flu_.shtml |
Posted By: bjregg
Date Posted: May 14 2006 at 2:42pm
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Commonground, That is a good idea. Thanks for the direction. bj |