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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

(R0) factor for pneumonic plague

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Diligent View Drop Down
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Joined: April 11 2013
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    Posted: November 04 2017 at 10:26am
Please, anyone contribute to what I am seeing.

CDC studies show that for each primary case, an [ (R0) factor of 1.3 ] was observed in previous outbreaks of pneumonic plague.

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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Joined: January 20 2014
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 04 2017 at 11:00am
Originally posted by Diligent Diligent wrote:

Please, anyone contribute to what I am seeing.

CDC studies show that for each primary case, an [ (R0) factor of 1.3 ] was observed in previous outbreaks of pneumonic plague.


Pneumonic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestisis, has been studied extensively since it has very high potential to be used as a bioweapon (FBI term "select agent").   This article has some insights that may be helpful to you:


Although pneumonic plague is listed by the Centers of Disease Control in the leading ‘critical biological agents’, very few studies exist on this subject. In this study, a mathematical compartment model was used to describe the geographical and temporal spread of an epidemic of pneumonic plague following its use as a biological weapon. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in order to assess the key parameters for the control of an outbreak in France. If interventions were taken 10 days after an attack, a reference scenario of 1000 index cases in Paris would lead to 2500 deaths. The results of the study indicate that the rapidity of onset of interventions has the largest effect on the final size of the epidemic, followed by wearing masks, treating contacts preventively and quarantine. Limiting inter-regional mixing does little to reduce casualties, although it does confine them to a single region.
CRS, DrPH
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