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Realistic & Depressing article on Climate Change

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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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    Posted: October 13 2017 at 7:01am
I've worked in the field for over 30 years, and I reluctantly have to agree with this article's conclusions.  


It is long but not very technical, and the conclusions are that we are collectively screwed.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2017 at 10:57am
Haven't had a chance to read the article yet (I'm at work with crappy wifi) but I have to agree. I think we've opened Pandora's Box and there's no fixing what we've set in motion. I honestly believe we're on the cusp of the biggest human die off in history as food and clean water shortages begin to take their toll in the coming decades.

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WillobyBrat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2017 at 10:58am
To everyone who watches this debate, 

I can assure you that everything written and implied in the article that Chuck posted here was absolutely and undeniably (except by utter morons) correct.  Be afraid, be very afraid!  No great winged being is going to appear in the light of the sun and tell mankind that all will be saved.  I don't want to hammer people's faith or their naivete but, you/we are facing imminent extinction within two generations.  Starvation and foul weather will, without doubt, become the normal situation throughout all the nations.  Within the equatorial and sub-equatorial regions of this planet,  ie. from the tropic of Capricorn to the tropic of Cancer within ten years and as previously said within two generations for the rest of us.  in spite of anything that president Trump may say to the contrary, It is our (the human race's) own fault.  In my particular field (silviculture and arable agriculture) I have seen veritable plague after plague wiping out trees; from ash through olives and oranges to yuccas and many, many others.  This is no joke.  We are in grave danger.

We have brought infected plants from one country to another, spreading such things as ash die-back, insects that bore into pine trees and firs l(arch spruce etc.) even the iconic English elm is almost extinct through dutch elm disease carried by beetles.  Because we insist on planting foreign trees in Britain from Scandinavia our woodlands have become monoculture.  These replaced the oak, ash, rowan, cobnut and the yew, all of which supplied food for various species of fauna and unlike the needles of the larch etc. their broad leaves formed thick mats which decomposed into very fertile soil.  That natural ecosystem is disappearing.  Hundreds of millions of acres of forestry has been removed to allow the red grouse to live on heather-covered peat.  Contrary to anything said by the so-called environmentalists, this was not our country's natural state.  The black grouse is the one that should live in the heavily wooded forestry.  The other creatures have gone and if you look at an old map of my area and above you will see large areas with the words deer forest  across them.  They don't have forest now and they don't have the right species of deer.  That all went with the clearances.  We only have a diminutive amount of red deer and an excessive amount of the sapling-destroying roe deer.

Having removed the main means of carbon capture and of stabilization of hillsides and mountains, just at a time when the climate is changing, rainfall is increasing at a colossal rate and the temperatures are rising, all this adds up to massive landslides.  It is trees that hold the earth on hillsides in place.  

Ten years ago, when I bought my hillside smallholding, winters with eight foot of snow and temperatures of -17*C were the norm.  It changed abruptly about six years ago.  The norm is now approximately 4 inches of snow and -10*C.  The rainfall has tripled during that decade.

This year I grew olive trees outside.  I planted them last year.  Two struggled to survive over the winter.  But, five of them flowered and two bore fruit.  Most of the crops that would normally be grown on this land had noticeably poor harvests.  I have experimented successfully with other crops more suitable for the climate change.  Some were polyploids, all were selectively bred.  Without getting heavily into the genetic science, suffice it to say, if you want to eat in the future, you need (by you I mean the human race) to get behind the genetic engineering of crops to withstand extremes in heat, acidity, drought and inundation, high wind and unexpected insect and fungal attack.  Some of these problems can be solved at least in the short term, say 20 years leeway, by the use of companion planting, but I also suggest you look very carefully at the food crops grown by the native Americans of the southern states of the USA and South America. I have grown many of these successfully and improved a few.

Incidentally, when you have planted potatoes or any other tuberous crop and you find one bigger stronger and healthier than all the others, for God's sake don't eat it.  Take a nice big tuber of this, say potato, put it in the dark in a cool place till about a month before planting time next season, then bring it out into the light and use meristem culture techniques to produce dozens of them.  (It is a form of cloning.)

As it happens, loud-mouthed me lost 200 kg of soft fruit, mainly gooseberries to a plague of wasps.  Both myself and my wife got our hands stung by them.  They eat out the center of a gooseberry leaving it hanging like a Chinese lantern. in our weather, I didn't see that coming.  So be prepared for a few surprises.

é

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2017 at 2:14pm
^Thanks, JD and Will!  I hate to be the bearer of bad news all the time...

There are worse things than temperature.  Most of the oxygen we breathe is produced by the phytoplankton in the oceans.  They grow in the uppermost layers (euphoric zone), where sunlight can penetrate.  However, this layer is also most heavily impacted by both ocean acidification and air pollution, and the phytoplankton are being adversely impacted to our peril. 


Unfortunately, by the time that the world's population catches on, it will be far too late.  I'm glad I'm 62 and have no children who will have to live through these coming times.  

If we reversed deforestation, curtailed fossil fuel consumption and did some other lifestyle changes (avoid beef etc.), it would help.  However, there is already a vast inventory of carbon pollution in the atmosphere, and the melting permafrost is adding even more.   Schemes to remove this carbon are being developed, but they are fanciful I'm afraid.  

We are screwed.  A pandemic that wipes out a large portion of the earth's human population would be cruel, but it might be all we have to count on.  Sad but true. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2017 at 3:35pm
the only thing that will save mankind is......

a "Slate Wiper"

this is what i have said before and have thought for a long time,

unless we find a way of getting the CO2 off this planet and into the vacume of space ,

then we will expand into the universe,

or we go back to the stone age ............,

in my humble opinion ,all the "great minds "aka Gates ,Hawkins,Musk ect....plus world governments

should get together and work this one out ,its of UTMOST urgency,

but no heads in sand see how much money we can make ,

i'll start with ,a ring of statalites able to suck up the CO2 and expel it into space ,

forget the hyperlink,

we need Clarks space elevator only not to move material but CO2

there ive thrown that one out any better ideas????

i see iceland is turning CO2 into Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!

we need some super smart thinking on this one ,

the kind that was  the Manhatten project ,

only this one to save life not kill
12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2017 at 4:12pm
Climate change extinction of the technological civilizations does seem to be both the explanation of the Fermi paradox;...... and our fate.

I can't see us ending up as another Venus, we are further from the sun and did not get that warm in the carboniferous period.  But, its a good job tardigrades are so cute, they just might inherit the Earth.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2017 at 5:07pm
Maybe we should invent a thing that can change CO2 onto O2 we could call it.....

I know a TREE!!!!?
12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2017 at 5:21pm
Nah! Those are just for timber, Mate!

Seriously, about 150-200 years after the bubonic plague, there was a major cold spell for a few decades which we here called "The Mini Ice Age".   A scientific theory emerged that said this was due to the reforestation, following the depopulation of the black death.

You could be on to something there, Carbon.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2017 at 10:46pm
I think our best bet is to hope that a lethal pandemic takes away 50% of the population of the planet (hopefully not one of us!!!) and so just by the relief of the weight of population, we immediately lessen our polluting, and so minimise the effects on the climate. 

I certainly can't see how changing a lightbulb to an energy efficient one is going to make any difference at all. 
If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2017 at 11:36pm
Agreed Kiwimom
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2017 at 1:07am
Cheery bunch, aren't we? LOLLOLLOL


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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2017 at 3:19pm
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

I've worked in the field for over 30 years, and I reluctantly have to agree with this article's conclusions.  


It is long but not very technical, and the conclusions are that we are collectively screwed.  




I did read the article. Despite the fact it could go either way as the ice melts and the Gulf Stream gets diluted (mini-Ice Age in the U.S. and Europe) it is unlikely our pitiful emission in the atmosphere really influence climate change which is inevitable. Even 8 degrees in two centuries is not going to destroy the Earth.

We can reasonably assume, if we do not blow ourselves up first, we will have Star Ships and Warp Drive or some other FTL (faster than light) propulsion which will give us other choices in the cosmos.

We do exist in a rather naive state believing ourselves to be the only sentient race in the universe. It is very likely we are not.  So eventually, in spite of whatever religion we have or what we believe, we may be forced to leave Earth and go elsewhere and run into beings who are not that happy about it.

It is rather impractical to live on a river bank and complain about flooding. I see it all the time in California. People build a house in the middle of the woods and are floored when there is a fire. Fires happen. If you build on the beach - so do Tsunamis or if you live in California -earthquakes.

Life can be depressing - but worrying about someone's 8 degrees in 200 year is not putting the cart before the horse. It is assuming the people in that time will somehow benefit by what we do now. I doubt it. Nature has her own safeties and if humans become too much of a pain they will become extinct.  People in the future may be smarter and able to handle whatever the Earth does.

Life is about things not staying the same and so is death. Without death there would be no gene diversity and we would certainly be done for. So sadly but wisely

"There is nothing quite as sure - as change."

Medclinician
"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2017 at 3:40pm
You may have read it, but you clearly did not understand it.  We do not have 200 years.  

Your son will suffer the consequences as will my children.  At least mine will be able to say I tried to stop it rather than playing ostrich.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2017 at 3:56pm
For those of us who are deniers, or doubters, of the effects of climate change....please see this map. 


I've seen the sunsets in Chicago turn blood red from the sunlight diffused by massive boreal forest fires in Canada and Alaska, and these are just tossing more carbon and particulates into the atmosphere.  

Unfortunately, by the time that the rest of us discover the implications of global warming, they will cry to the scientists and engineers among us to do something, anything.   

Forget it, the atmosphere is ruined.  Trump was the last nail in the coffin.  Sad but true. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 16 2017 at 4:47am

This Isn’t ‘the New Normal’ for Climate Change — That Will Be Worse


http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/why-this-isnt-the-new-normal-for-climate-change.html



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 16 2017 at 10:33am
One of the hard things in this climate change discussion is that OK temperatures go up-but why does sealevelrise increase so slowly ? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise) (One answer could be that at the poles an increase of 8 degrees from -12C to -4C =ice remains ice, an increase from -4 to +4C =melt, most of the present sealevelrise could be from water expanding due to higher temperatures.)

In another part of this forum I try to follow hurricanes-what they could do for the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_and_climate_change Yes warmer oceans does mean more rain but the number of hurricanes differ from year to year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones.

Things like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought are not very good to use in statistics as proof of (long term) climate change; we may have not enough data over a long timeframe.

Yet I do think that climate change is already effecting the global logistics. Bad weather, rivers running dry or flooding means transport by ship is getting more expensive. 

Another point is population growth http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/. Related http://www.worldometers.info/ the growth of production. As long as "politics" fail to stop this insanity in wich we turn our planet into goods we throw away after short usage the motor of climate change only will get "hotter".

Even when people do not see a link between fossil fuel and climate change airquality, health obesity, would be good reasons for changing the way we live. Here in the Netherlands 17 million people use 9 million cars with close to 30 million parking places. And we also have bikes !
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2017 at 9:04am

Hurricane Ophelia: Ireland recovers from worst storm on record that killed three


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-ireland-recovers-from.html


"worst storm on record "

never a good thing to hear

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2017 at 9:21am
When we can't grow enough food, and clean water is in short supply, population growth will fix itself, Josh. It's coming, and sooner than we think.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2017 at 9:39am
Sadly, you are right, JD.  It would have been so much nicer if we could only have found a way to limit the birth rate instead.

Fundamentalist religion, selfish greed and rank stupidity will condemn many people to a seriously unpleasant death.  What a despicable species we are.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2017 at 8:42pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

When we can't grow enough food, and clean water is in short supply, population growth will fix itself, Josh. It's coming, and sooner than we think.



Even worse may be a drop-off of oxygen in the atmosphere.  Nobody talks about this except for a few of us scientists, we are scared sh*tless about it. 



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