Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
RO of 2.6 |
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Posted: January 25 2020 at 11:57am |
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult. Thread: 568 11:07 AM - Jan 25, 2020 Twitter Ads info and privacy 487 people are talking about this This was from FB post the Dr Eric Ding was a scientist taught at Harvard for 15 years. I think this is not good news. Anyone else confirm this report? |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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5 minutes ago I read it was 3.8
Either way that's a scary number. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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They are both guesses. Over 1 is all we can say for certain.
For what it's worth, my guess is nearer 3.8, possibly higher. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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When the only available stats are doctored, any estimate is going to be nothing more than a guess at this point. As Techno said, the R0 more than one because it’s clearly spreading and expanding.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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