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sealevelrise

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 15 2017 at 10:06pm
https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/01/15/the-coast-is-toast-faster-and-faster-global-sea-level-rise/ In his presentation Paul Beckwith mentions the very likely 7 meter sealevelrise by 2070. Most of the sealevelrise has to do with temperature; warmer water expands. 

From 1.4 mm rise in the 20th century as an average the increase reached 3mm sealevelrise in 2010, now stands at 3.4 mm per year and the rise is going exponential. (This means double within a certain timeframe-1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128 etc.as an average growth)

In my (DJ) opinion abrupt climate change means abrupt sealevelrise.  (This means that in that certain timeframe it could go like 1,2,8,,16,64,200 mm rise in a short timeframe-years, maybe a few decades). 

Methanelevels are going up explosive in (a.o) the Arctic=temperature will rise much faster (methane can store heat 105 times more than co2 in a short-20 year (?) period-20x more than co2 in a 100 year timeframe-at the end methane ends up as co2)
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2017 at 10:53pm
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/01/13/the-human-world-has-never-experienced-a-time-when-global-sea-ice-was-so-weak-and-reduced/ Loss of sea-ice means land-ice may slide into the ocean. It does not have to melt-it will melt in the ocean-rising the sealevel in an abrupt way. 

Also not included in meltratio's is the level of radio-activity on the poles. (http://www.rense.com/general10/dsd.htm) Radioactivity=heat. Nuclear testing and accidents means release of radioactivity-this accumulates in polar regions via water and airflows.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2017 at 7:48pm
^Being Dutch, you have intimate knowledge of the sea and its force upon the land!!  

As the oceans warm, they expand, so global warming increases sea level regardless of adding more volume from melting ice.  

It is raining in Chicago today, when normally it would be about 0ºF/ -17.7ºC right now!  I like to sit on the ice of local lakes and fish through the ice, and have done this for over 40 years.  It is becoming increasingly more difficult with each passing season.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2017 at 7:36am
The amount of energy to turn ice into water is the same amount that heats up the same amount of water to 80C.   http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/01/global-sea-ice-extent-falling-off-chart.html Sea-ice is at record low-meaning seawater will warm more. https://summitcountyvoice.com/2017/01/08/ocean-layering-around-antarctica-could-signal-major-meltdown/

According to the article a new el nino is on is way. This would rise " temperature 2,5C compared to end 2016" . Sam Carana draws the conclusion that "atmosphere temperature will rise over 10C/18F by 2026". See also http://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/01/16/global-sea-ice-hits-lowest-levels-probably-millenia (DJ: if I get that correct he is expecting temperatures to be 4C above the 1880 average by july 2017. If things would develop that way-with the extreme low sea-ice-ratio-this will bring abrupt sea-level-rise in the short term and speeding up climate escalation dramaticly. I hope Sam Carana is not correct on this. We are talking about all life on the planet being in extreme danger).

There are 450 nuclear plants, over 1200 storage facilities-but also 180 nuclear reactors on 140 ships....http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/non-power-nuclear-applications/transport/nuclear-powered-ships.aspx. Another Fukushima-or several-is just a matter of time. Sealevelrise, earthquakes, superstorms (all climate change related) will show "how safe nuclear energy is". 

To get more info on methane, co(2) etc http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/index.html Methane levels in the Arctic are above 2000 ppb-should be 1250 ppb. Most likely methane is coming up (in exponential growing amounts-ultimately proberbly "explosive") from the seafloor etc. Permafrost is defrozen, seaice is not covering the seafloor-warmer temperatures mean methane is released. Methane can contain-on the short term-105 times as much energy as the same amount CO2. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/giant-iceberg-poised-to-break-off-from-antarctic-shelf-larsen-c In what way climate change major events will disrupt the economy is a matter of discussion. But we live in a fantasyworld-the "markets" are based on unrealistic expectations of future profit. "Peak-market" ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2017 at 9:06am
the Republicans in my state don't believe in global warming or sea level rise
they pretty much have made it illegal with some foolish laws
LMAO !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2017 at 10:52pm
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/01/17/real-science-northeast-u-s-temperatures-are-decades-ahead-of-global-average/ Average temperature rise may mean large regional differences. Some areas may even face temparatures stabil/drop-while other areas see +3c on a global average of 2C temperaturerise.

Paul Beckwith did put part3 and 4 of his presentation on sealevelrise on you-tube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxYN7hZ6fUQ and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_oK29dt0YU&t=629s Melt of ice would cause a sea-level-rise of 7meters  (50% coming of Greenland wich would mean that half of the land-ice of Greenland would melt, the other 50% would be 25% West- and 25% East-Antarctica.)by 2070-in his view. Because of the ice-melt global average temperatures could even drop below the 1880-1920 average temperature.

DJ-I think excluded in these models are methane levels exploding, also nuclear disasters with that kind of sealevelrise, superstorms etc. are impossible to avoid. (On nuclear polution see this 100 page Norwegian PDF file:///home/chronos/u-4f3dcb45ba2aa7585c9d6f5ae2aca3aa0e822cec/Downloads/aar2015-radio.pdf.pdf from the Arctic Monitoring and Assesment Program)
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2017 at 6:49am
Even without El Nino 2015 and 2016 were record breaking hot http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/01/2016-temperature-records/


Larsen-C Antarctic peninsula keeps breaking up http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-38686626

DJ; of course president Trump, just like new elected leaders-this year in Europe-will have to deal with climate change, even if they do not believe in it. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/20/china-eyes-an-opportunity-to-take-ownership-of-climate-change-fight Climate change is self-evident; it will expres itself in rising sealevels (via) stronger storms, earthquakes and tsunami's. Fossil fuel is old and expensive https://robertscribbler.com/2017/01/19/kauai-shows-solar-storage-is-starting-to-become-cost-competitive-with-fossil-fuels-nuclear/

Renewable energy is the future. The US and EU have everything needed to play a major role in new energy developments. 


http://www.thecvf.org/web/climate-vulnerable-forum/cvf-participating-countries/ The poor countries wich did not cause climate change are paying the highest price. If there has to be serious international justice  climate change is international crime. 

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2017 at 9:09am
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2017 at 1:31pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2017 at 1:33pm
From his facebookpage https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva?fref=nf&pnref=story (DJ: I do not know if his calculations are correct. I did see another model indicating that we are now in the exponential phase of climate-change. There are several indicators. Trump etc. can deny climate change-climate change is self-evident and will show itself in a very strong form-with many faces (wildfires, superstorms, extreme rains etc-sealevelrise). Politics have failed so far-the shore has to stop the ship ?) 

Joe Neubarth: 

2040 ppb or 2 ppm. If the GWP (GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL) of methane is 200. and with that methane in the atmosphere we have now doubled the effects of CO2. CO2 is at 416 with a GWP of ONE. 416 X 1 = 416.


Methane is at 2.04 ppm with a GWP of 200 = 408.


408 + 416 = 824 not counting the effects of the other dozen greenhouse gases.


That would definitely force the oceans to release tremendous quantities of stored up heat as we have witnessed in the past year. We know it happens because we have seen it with our own eyes.


That, in addition to the atmospheric heating effects of the CO2 and Methane and Nitrous Oxide and the water vapor and the other greenhouse gases. We are in a hell of a mess. For the uneducated who do not have even elementary school science understanding, it would be a whole lot easier if it was just CO2.


CO2 has taken us this far. The other greenhouse gases are now staged to destroy the planet.

Though we probably will not go Venus, it is going to seem like it in just a few years.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2017 at 7:34pm
Here is the problem as I see it for what it is worth...nothing. We have London in a SMOG that is really bad, China has so much pollution that it is shameful (my husband was there and was a witness), then we have all the third world countries trying to be America and they has huge amounts of pollution.

Then you have all of the Hollywood/Soros people flying in their private planes, 10,000 sq ft homes, along with their 2nd, 3rd and 4th homes around the world gee what is their carbon foot print.

Russia, Europe, India are just as bad as all of us. India due to population alone!

Then the liberals/Hollywood people want to blame middle class Americans for all of the Global Warming!   The liberals want to make sure middle class Americans do not have jobs, so they send all the pollution to Mexico and more to China and any other place so they don't have to "see it" in America.

Gee and then you wonder why Trump is President Trump.

Yes, we have global warming Yes, CO2 is bad but NO country is going to stop it! It is called GREED by mostly the very wealthy, like Soros, Gates, Buffet, and the rest of the really truly wealthy.

So you people on this forum can write your treatises and complain and wring your hands but none of this will matter. People will do what they have always done try to make a living for their families, live a good life and if we screw it up oh well.

What we all know on this forum is that all of this could end with a virus that kills most of us, or a sun spot that goes wild hits us and puts us back to the dark ages, a meteor that we did not see coming that does to us what it did to the dinosaurs, or something else we don't see coming but kills most of us.

So I live my life happy every day, try to be nice to all people including liberals who are so full of hate they would not let 5 year olds take home a Scholastic News which had our new President's photo on the front to tell children about an inauguration because they hate our President so much. I also try to do God's will in my life so that when I do leave this earth I hope to get to heaven. I hope you all do the same.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2017 at 9:53pm
FluMom, let me react on your views.

-You are correct in saying that a small group of people have extreme ecological footprints. I did read that 10% of the (world ?) population is causing 50% of the polution. 

-Hating Trump is not going to help. He is the US president and thereby in a position to make changes. In my opinion-and as far as I can see-some of Trumps decisions may be good, some "shortsighted".

  -When 8 men claim to own as much as the poorest half of the world-population that is the outcome of globelizing trade. With slowing down Trans Pacific Partnership, NAFTA, TTIP etc. he may be doing something to get some balance. 
  -On the other hand spending-cuts on climatescience during a climatecrises in my opinion is like driving a car with your eyes closed because there is fog outside. The risks are there-you choose to ignore them. 

Climatechange is man-made mostly. It is not a meteorite from out of space, some super-virus, not a flesh-eating-multi-resistant-bacteria. Even those risks mankind has an obligation to minimize damage. When humans are the major cause of a problem-in my view-we owe it to ourselves, to the poor who did not cause the problem yet do pay the price, to our kids, next generations, to limit the damage we are doing to the climate. 

As we all know here on this forum live is short-we all going to die. But this forum also is about how to deal with the dangers live offers us. 

"If we screw it up oh well" is not what I want to tell the next generation. 

I agree with you that the problem may be out of human control. I also agree with you that Soros, Gates, Buffet (Gore, Clinton, Bush etc.) spoke words that did not cover their actions. It is not just Exxon-ceo 's who are to blame. Trump is a symptom of a proces gone wrong over decades. 

I live in the Netherlands, we have our own Trump. I do not blame people for voting on him. I try to understand why they do it. The frustrations of decades in wich politicians-in the name of the people-made decissions against those people are the cause of Trump etc. 

I hope Trump will be in a better position than Obama (or Clinton) to deal with the unfolding climatecrises giving floods in California, winter tornado's in the US south east. Much more on its way...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2017 at 10:07pm
From Joe Neubarth his facebook-account https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/posts/10211336640629266 :

The prognosticators of Global Heating doom are arguing that human extinction could occur within 18-42 months from now, based on the most likely event of a massive methane release in the Arctic region anytime in the next three years.

If you have been reading my posts I expect the Methane will cause it, but I am looking six or seven years out.

This methane release will be due to the warming of the major oceans of the world that have, in turn, warmed the Arctic Ocean. Under the Arctic Ocean stand thousands of billions of tons of Methane Clathrates (Methane Gas encapsulated in ice crystals). 

https://goodmenproject.com/featured-content/fukushima-and-climate-change-lbkr/ Kevin Hester: The perfect storm of runaway abrupt climate change, an acidifying ocean killing the oceanic reef systems and three coriums at Fukushima Daiichi bleeding ionising radiation into the atmosphere above and due to the 3 coriums now bathing in arterial water below the plants, leaking an uncertain number of 100's of tonnes of contaminated water below into the Pacific.
 
Very depressing; http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html the several feedbacks causing abrupt climate change (Warmer Arctic Colder Continents but later on global warming escalating) 

The links above do not mention that abrupt climate change=abrupt sealevelrise. Proberbly in the coming years-not decades. 

Just like economic crises came as a surprise for most of the experts, abrupt climate change may go much faster than the main stream experts now forecast. Politics are miles behind the facts and unable to change course. 


With more "Trumps" getting power in Europe this year, public denial of the problems, the outlook gets very dark.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2017 at 2:39am
https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/01/30/my-predictions-near-term-climate-system-mayhem/ 

(DJ: In his video Paul Beckwith brings up the idea of exponential searise. A sealevelrise of 7 meters by 2070, 3,5 meters 2063, 1,875 meter in 2056, 0,9 meter in 2049, 0,45 meter in 2042, 0,225 meter in 2035, 0,1125 meter in 2028, 0,05 meter in 2021-at present sealevelrise is 3,4mm (0,0034m) per year, in the eighties it was 2mm (0,002m) per year. Extreme large tsunami's can cause sealevelrise in an explosive way. Sea-ice is now keeping land-ice in place. But the break down of sea-ice (Larsen-C etc) will cause a new "ice-balance" in wich land-ice (via glaciars, but also (at low tide) breaking of of large pieces of ice above water drops in the ocean causing waves never seen before in human history.)

Complete loss of Arctic sea ice & snow cover year-round. Country-sized glaciers from Greenland & Antarctica crashing into the oceans causing massive tsunamis & raising sea-levels by at least 10 feet by 2050 & 25 feet by 2070. Reversal of wind & water flows at the North Pole Ocean. Huge storms. More often. Lasting longer. Crop failures & global mayhem.

A sci-fi disaster movie plot?
NO.
Our planet in a decade or so…

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jan/26/we-may-be-closer-than-we-thought-to-dangerous-climate-thresholds


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2017 at 10:02pm
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/02/02/antarctic-sea-ice-likely-to-hit-new-all-time-record-lows-over-coming-days/ Ant-arctis sea-ice at record low with warm storms moving both to the Arctic and Ant-arctic. Sea-ice is keeping land-ice in its positions. Antarctica is showing more and more Greenland-like melting according to one of the comments on Robert Scriblers latest article :

Shawn Redmond

  /  February 3, 2017

Crazy warmth at both poles. There are two shots from Worldview in Antarctica that are both at about 2000 +/- metres elevation and 200 +/- kms inland that show melt on the down slope of exposed mountain tops. The first link is over looking the Riiser-Larsen Ice shelf and the second is looking over the Amery. These places are across the continent from each other and triangulate with the Ross. This anomaly is continent wide at this point. The melt here is happening stunningly fast. If this keeps up over the next few years it will be looking more like Greenland. A really f@#$ing big Greenland.
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-02&z=3&v=-275817.66456041037,1654602.6948325734,-9833.664560410369,1826122.6948325734

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-02&z=3&v=1679452.2580760876,403228.0383397024,1945436.2580760876,

When also taking into account further elements that could cause warming, a potential warming of 10°C (18°F) could eventuate by the year 2026, i.e. within about nine years from now, as discussed at the extinction page and as illustrated by the image below, from the Temperature page.


The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.

From: http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/01/2016-well-above-1.5c.html

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2017 at 9:48pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2017 at 11:20pm
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

On methane http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.nl/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html


Wow, Josh. That makes for a really depressing read Shocked




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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2017 at 12:19am
Jacksdad, could not agree more....

I find it depressing for lots of reasons;

-Politics is (at best) focussing on CO2 while the main problems now are shifting towards other green-house-gasses. (Methane, N20, watervapor etc) Denial of climatechangeproblems has been going on for over a century; in the 19th century there already were scientists and politicians warning for population growth, deforestation/landuse, excessive mining, over-industrialization etc. but they were/are ignored. 

-climate change is complicated bad news people do not want to hear. Exponential growth (opposite to linear growth) is a bit of thinking (but when I can understand it, most people can). (For example sealevelrise was linear 0,2 cm per year since the last ice-age. It is going exponential doublingtime 7 years on average-so after 7 years it would be 0,4 cm, after 14 years it would be 0,8 cm, after 21 years it would be 1,6 cm, 28y=3,2cm,35y=7.4cm,42y=14,8cm,49y=29,6cm-within 50 years in stead of 50x0,2cm=10cm rise it would accumulate to over 1 meter with 56y=60cm, 63y=1,2m, 70y=2,4m per year sealevelrise-put together by then a total of 10meter sealevelrise in the exponential modus).

-Science itself is running behind the facts. Politics may think it is a minute before 12, some scientists believe it is 1 A.M. for avoiding major disaster, other scientists gave up al hope. Ideas of a nuclear(war) winter to re-freeze the Arctic are very unrealistic since the main cause of global warming is in processes from the earth-atmosphere itself. (As far as I understand, nuclear weapons would increase sharply green house gas emissions, and above that start several hundreds of Fukushima's. Nuclear energy has become a feed back in the global warming proces it self-no way that it could form a solution).

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2017 at 1:09am
I remember 30 years ago reading that melting permafrost and the methane released would be trouble,the government's are not bothered,even if we ceased carbon emissions now ,nothing will prevent the course we on....only a "slate wiper"
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Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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