Swine Flu-How we got it wrong, is wuhan the same?

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   I vividly remember the outbreak of H1N1 in Mexico city 10 years ago.   The early numbers looked horrific.  It looked like the beginning of the pandemic we all feared.   Then something strange happened, it stopped getting worse.

It turns out it was a relatively minor outbreak that we didn't notice till it was about to peak.   Is Wuhan the same?   We have been getting reports of pneumonia since at least early December, and they only recently been able to pin down what is causing it.

So I see two scenarios,  
#1 We already have millions of cases, but only a few thousand severe cases. It is already as bad as it it is gonna get in Wuhan
#2 We have a couple tens of thousands of cases, and a few thousand severe cases.   In a couple weeks it will be horrifyingly bad.

What is more likely at this point?

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DeepThinker Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: September 26 2015 Location: So. California Status: Offline Points: 3245	Post Options Post Reply Quote DeepThinker Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Swine Flu-How we got it wrong, is wuhan the same? Posted: January 24 2020 at 6:32pm
	I vividly remember the outbreak of H1N1 in Mexico city 10 years ago. The early numbers looked horrific. It looked like the beginning of the pandemic we all feared. Then something strange happened, it stopped getting worse. It turns out it was a relatively minor outbreak that we didn't notice till it was about to peak. Is Wuhan the same? We have been getting reports of pneumonia since at least early December, and they only recently been able to pin down what is causing it. So I see two scenarios, #1 We already have millions of cases, but only a few thousand severe cases. It is already as bad as it it is gonna get in Wuhan #2 We have a couple tens of thousands of cases, and a few thousand severe cases. In a couple weeks it will be horrifyingly bad. What is more likely at this point?

Technophobe Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450	Post Options Post Reply Quote Technophobe Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: January 25 2020 at 3:47am
	Your guess is as good as anyone's DT! Even the "experts" are guessing at this point. For what little it is worth, I think it is probably quite nasty, there is a slim chance it is very nasty and a tiny risk that it is "the big one". If you look back over the past few years, especially in my arguments with Medclinician, I prepare every time, but never panic. I'm panicking now!
	How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving.

DeepThinker Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: September 26 2015 Location: So. California Status: Offline Points: 3245	Post Options Post Reply Quote DeepThinker Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:37am
	With evidence that this virus was circulating in November maybe even October.... I think we are making this same mistake all over again. I think we are seeing the very peak of a relatively mild epidemic, not the start of a very severe epidemic. I hope and pray that I am right on this, but preparing for the opposite just in case. We need to be testing healthy people in Wuhan and maybe people around the world for antibodies to see if this is a possibility.