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Syria escalation

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Syria escalation
    Posted: September 30 2016 at 8:31am
If the US wants a "no-fly-zone" over (northern)Syria : https://southfront.org/syria-war-both-sides-go-to-plan-b/

Once the US comes to realize that its policy sending MANPADs to Syria did not work, it will have only one last card to play: attempt to impose a no-fly zone over Syria.

The good news is that judging by this exchange, US generals understand that any such US move would mean war with Russia. The bad news is that the Neocons seem to be dead-set on exactly that. Since such an event has now become possible, we need to look at what exactly this would entail.

The way the US doctrine mandates to impose a no-fly zone is pretty straightforward: it begins with an intensive series of USAF and USN cruise missile strikes and bombing raids whose aim is to disable the enemy air defenses and command and control capabilities. At this stage heavy jamming and anti-radiation missile strikes play a key role. This is also when the Americans, if they have any hope of achieving a tactical surprise, will also typically strikes at enemy airbases, with a special emphasis on destroying landed aircraft, runways and fuel storage facilities. This first phase can last anything between 48 hours to 10 days, depending on the complexity/survivability of the enemy air defense network. The second phase typically includes the deployment of air-to-air fighters into combat air patrols which are typically controlled by airborne AWACS aircraft. Finally, once the air defense network has been destroyed and air supremacy has been established, strike fighters and bombers are sent in to bomb whatever can be bombed until the enemy surrenders or is crushed.

In Syria, this ideal scenario would run into several problems.

First, while there are only a few S-400/S-300 systems in Syria, the US has never had to operate against them, especially not against the Russian version of these formidable systems. Worse, Russia also has very long range radars which will make it impossible for the USA to achieve a tactical surprise. Last but not least, Russia also has deployed powerful electronic warfare systems which are likely to create total chaos in key US command, control, communications and intelligence systems.

Second, these S-400/S-300 systems are mostly located on what is legally “Russian territory”: the Khmeimim airbase and the Slava-class or Kuznetsov-class cruisers off the Syrian coast. The same goes for the key nodes of the Russian communications network. If the Americans were crazy enough to try to hit a Russian Navy ship that would open up the entire USN to Russian attacks.

Third, while Russia has deployed relatively few aircraft in Syria, and while even fewer of them are air-to-air interceptors, those which Russia has deployed (SU-30SM and SU-35) are substantially superior to any aircraft in the US inventory with the possible exception of the F-22A. While the US will be able to overwhelm the Russians with numbers, it will be at a steep cost.

Fourth, the use of USAF AWACS could be complicated by the possibility that the Russians would decide to deploy their anti-AWACS very-long range missiles (both ground launched and air launched). It is also likely that Russia would deploy her own AWACS in Iranian airspace and protect them with MiG-31BMs making them a very difficult target.

Fifth, even if the USA was somehow able to establish something like an general air superiority over Syria, the Russians would still have three formidable options to continue to strike Daesh deep inside Syria:

1) cruise missiles (launched from naval platforms of Tu-95MS bombers)
2) SU-34/SU-35 strike groups launched from Russia or Iranian
3) supersonic long range bombers (Tu-22M3 and Tu-160)

It would be exceedingly difficult for the US to try to stop such Russian attacks as the USAF and USN have not trained for such missions since the late 1980s.

Sixth, even a successful imposition of a no-fly zone would do little to stop the Russians from using their artillery and attack helicopters (a difficult target for fixed-wing aircraft to begin with). Hunting them down at lower altitudes would further expose the USAF/USN to even more Russia air defenses.

Seven, last but not least, today is not 1995 and Syria is not Bosnia: nowadays the Europeans don’t have the stomach to fight the Syrians, nevermind Russia. So while some European leaders will definitely send at least some aircraft to show their loyalty to Uncle Sam (Poland, Germany, Holland and maybe one 2nd hand F-16 from a Baltic state), the regimes that matter (France, UK, Italy, etc.) are unlikely to be interested in a dangerous and completely illegal military intervention. This is not a military problem for the USA, but would present yet another political difficulty.

To sum all this up I would simply say that if the Americans and their allies have a huge advantage in numbers, in terms of quality they are outgunned by the Russians pretty much at all levels. At the very least, this qualitative edge for the Russians makes the imposition of a (completely illegal!) no-fly zone over Syria an extremely risky proposition. Could they do it? Yes, probably, but only at a very substantial cost and at the very real risk of a full-scale war with Russia. As I have said it many times, Syria is smack in the middle of the CENTCOM/NATO area of “responsibility” end at the outer edge of the Russian power projection capability. Where Russia has tens of aircraft, the Americans can bring in many hundreds. So the real question is not whether the Americans could do it, but rather whether they are willing to pay the price such an operation would entail.

At a political level it is important to repeat the following here:

1) The US presence in Syria – all of it – is completely illegal and has no UNSC mandate
2) Any and all US military operations in Syria are also completely illegal
3) The imposition of a US enforced no-fly zone would also be completely illegal

While this has not stopped the Empire so far, this might offer the Europeans a perfect excuse not to participate in any such operation. Of course, the Americans don’t need any European air force to try to impose a no-fly zone on Syria, but politically this would definitely hurt them.

-

 Finally, regardless of who actually sits in the White House, the idea of imposing a no-fly zone over Syria would have to be measured against the so-called “Powell doctrine” of military interventions. So let’s see how this plan would measure up to the series of questions of the Powell doctrine:

Q: Is a vital national security interest threatened?
A: No
Q: Do we have a clear attainable objective?
A: Kinda
Q: Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed?
A: Yes, and they are potentially extremely high
Q: Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted?
A: No
Q: Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?
A: No
Q: Have the consequences of our action been fully considered?
A: Yes, and the biggest risk is WWIII against Russia
Q: Is the action supported by the American people?
A: No
Q: Do we have genuine broad international support?
A: No

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 30 2016 at 9:26am
I (DJ) think that above analysis is a bit optimistic. https://southfront.org/military-analysis-the-turkish-2nd-army-invasion-force-for-syria/ Turkey is not that far from Aleppo. "False flags" are an "instrument of war". Western intervention in the Aleppo battle for "humanitarian reasons", the "barbaric Russian bombing of the civilians in Aleppo" that will be stopped by the "good old west". (That same "west" is the main reason for the escalation of protests to "civil war" in Syria and the continuation of wars in Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia etc.)

A mix of "Free Syrian Army", Turkish forces and US/NATO forces is not far from Aleppo. 

When the stories of a Russian attack on a western command center in Aleppo (in reaction to the sept 17 US attack on Syrian forces ( and Iranian, Russian) in eastern Syria) are correct Israel also will get involved. Israel does not want Hezbollah and/or Iranian forces close to Israel-maybe a "larger action" will make that message more clear ? 

The US/NATO/Israel will not accept a de-facto Russian no-fly-zone above (parts of) Syria. Supply-lines to the "moderate rebels" has to be kept open. 

A possible escalation would see Turkish/FSA forces (with NATO ground support making Russian airstrikes harder) move towards eastern Aleppo to stop Syria and Russia with attacks. Israel will attack Iranian and Hezbollah positions. Western air forces may shoot down Syrian aircraft "for humanitarian reasons". 

A further escalation then could be Russia shooting at western aircrafts and/or troops. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 30 2016 at 5:20pm


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2016 at 3:01am
http://sana.sy/en/?p=89366 

https://sputniknews.com/politics/20161001/1045897212/turkey-russia-syria.html Putin may visit Turkey this month. (DJ the "coup" in Turkey reminds me of the "coup" in Indonesia in 1965 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_killings_of_1965%E2%80%9366 , in the (over)reaction most of the opposition was "put out of action"by Suharto. Also the Congo/Zaïre dossier https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congo_Crisis )

Including Kurdish fighters in the Free Syrian Army for fights outside Kurdish area's is increasing the Arab-Kurdish conflict and pushing Sunni-rebel groups towards IS. http://www.debka.com/newsupdatepopup/18314/Some-Syrian-rebel-groups-giving-up-on-US-turn-to-ISIS. The US would like to present "moderate rebels" but when those "rebels" are Kurdish in a non-Kurdish area, Sjia in a Sunni-area-there is a problem (both in Syria and Iraq). 


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2016 at 9:23am
https://southfront.org/pentagon-decided-to-test-russian-strength/ The US is going for plan B; more aid to the rebels, more US(led) airstrikes (on Syrian Army), more special forces.

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950710001244 The US destroyed several bridges/infrastructure in eastern Syria making operations difficult for Syrian Army.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-10/01/c_135727858.htm? China: Russia saved Syria from fragmentation. ( https://southfront.org/little-uighur-jihadists-of-turkistan-islamic-party-in-syria-photos/ Uighur-fighters returning to (western) China are a direct treath to China. Certainly when they have modern US weapons !)


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2016 at 9:11pm
Israeli News Live https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6vDB-0IAms

-Israel/US preparing operations against Damascus (from Golan)
-Eastern Aleppo is (mostly-80%) under Al Quada control, shooting at civilians in other parts of Aleppo with US supplied mortars etc. 

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/10/01/pentagon-silent-coup-undermines-us-russia-engagement-on-syria/ The US has at least three faces in the Syria-war: the state department, the Pentagon (military industry) and the CIA (etc).


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2016 at 9:47am
The US and Russia stop communications with eachother in Syria http://tass.com/politics/903761. This means that each side has to depend on own info and indirect contact (via Tel Aviv ? ) in "operations". 

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/10/03/487402/Iran-Velayati-Syria-US-military-intervention-suicide Iran warns the US. http://www.debka.com/newsupdatepopup/18334/ISIS-%E2%80%9Cemir%E2%80%9D-in-western-Iran-liquidated-says-Tehran IS is active in Iran as well. For Iran it is easy to claim the US and Israel are supporting "groups" (sunni-radicals, kurds etc. inside Iran.)

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/10/03/syrian-war-report-october-3-2016-syrian-army-breaks-militants-defenses-in-northern-aleppo/ Syrian Army moving in into the northern parts of eastern Aleppo. Russia bombed FSA (US backed with US "advisors"?) The US is now supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces, Turkey now is fighting with FSA ( correction-DJ)) in Hama-province. 

In the propaganda-war the west keeps claiming that Syria/Russia is attacking hospitals https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyP8wcLuqIU&t=331s Makes you wonder how many hospitals there are ! But war is terrible, being bombed is a horror. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4yNgtE_jQM Russia is sending 40.000.000 citizens to bunkers in a civil-defense excersise ? http://www.pravdareport.com/russia/politics/30-09-2016/135749-moscow_nuclear_war-0/ Israeli News Live will bring updates about a planned major US attack on Russian positions in Syria (????)

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2016 at 9:42pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lviLKSzNwBs Israeli News Live with a 45 min presentation (gets interesting a little after 40 min) but is not convincing me, by itself, that the US will attack Russian positions in Syria in short term. 

http://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=6717 Discussion over a "no-fly zone" over (parts of) Syria. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/10/04/russia-deploys-advanced-anti-missile-system-to-syria-for-first-time-us-officials-say.html Russia is preparing its air-defense in Syria (and proberbly also in other places). 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2016 at 9:03pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2016/10/04/obama-administration-considering-strikes-on-assad-again/?postshare=691475612823024&tid=ss_tw 

DJ: The US even openly considering attacking Syria/Assad means Russia will be preparing. This news does NOT mean world war 3 is coming for certain. But it is a big worrie !

(Superstation has published info in the past that looked incorrect. There was no large scale invasion from Saudi Arabia and Turkey inside Syria-one of the reasons for that was the publicity. Yes, superstation is sensationalistic-but there may be to much reality in these news items to ignore !)

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 05 2016 at 11:31pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-05/us-troops-deployed-iraq-face-violent-resistance-iraqi-state-militias Iraq is moving towards asking foreign forces that are not invited to leave Iraq. That goes for both US, Turkish (and other NATO forces). The US (and Turkey) proberbly see western Iraq as a bases for the war in Syria. 


Saudi Arabia is in a proxy war with Iran in Syria and Yemen. At both fronts KSA is backed by the US. 

In a (much to long) video; Trump now backing US action against (Russia in) Syria ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03IMd4oTdZI&t=798s

A major conflict between the US (NATO ?) and Russia (Iran, China ?) would open the door for a conflict in Korea https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bmWdD9PpdI . (Not even to mention India (backed by the US) and Pakistan (supported by China in the Kashmer-conflict-China has a border conflict with India in the Himalaya.)

DJ, I think that all around the world politicians are trying to avoid conflict or seeking alies for conflict. If a US intervention is supposed to be of influence in the Aleppo-Syria battle such intervention can not wait to long. But such an intervention could involve supply of weapons, logistics and information to the "rebels" (ending up with groups like IS and Al-Queda being supported by the west). 

The world after 1945 has had many major crises. It always did end without world war 3 getting started. In Syria the US and Russia have a sort of Mutual Assured Destruction + global escalation scenario both the US and Russia know they will start something "big" by further escalation. 

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2016 at 9:13am
"Assad/Syria will not stop "groups" that want to retake the Golan Heights (from Israel)" is the second sentence in the video-link. http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/10/05/pravda-s-300-in-syria-russia-will-not-wait-for-another-stab-in-the-back/ 

https://www.rt.com/news/361800-russia-syria-usa-aistrikes/ Russia is preparing for US/NATO intervention in Syria. ( A Russian no-fly-zone above Syria ?)



http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/10/05/covert-strikes-on-assad-back-on-us-table-to-prevent-fall-of-aleppo-report/ With the fall of Aleppo being a matter of days the US has limited time to (re)act. 

http://www.debka.com/newsupdatepopup/18406/Israel-thwarts-bomb-attack-directed-by-Hizballah Six men arrested in Israel near border with Lebanon and Syria.

DJ: With Hizballah and Iran getting to close to Israels border (and new unrest in Gaza) a further escalation could be Israeli action against Iran and Hizballah (by air or raids of special forces). Preparations for a major attack on Syria by the west will take time. Defcon is a good source of info http://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=6&sid=3df563412b9c27e0c11789987fc4da9e

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2016 at 8:50pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COvZKe9JfEY&t=30s Israeli News Live; Russia is making clear that an attack on Syria is an attack on Russia-more or less. 


https://www.rt.com/news/361855-iraq-us-turkey-troops/ The US is not backing Turkey in Iraq/Mosul-area, and https://www.rt.com/news/344973-lavrov-turkey-iraq-kurds/ Russia wants Turkey to withdraw its troops from Iraq. Putin will visit Erdogan october 10. Russia and Iran seem te want to increase their influence in Iraq (just like Syria, Libia old Soviet allies). 


https://southfront.org/putin-issues-a-ultimatum-to-the-united-states-to-leave-eastern-europe/ (DJ-I do not see an ultimatum, but a "request" from Putin ??)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2016 at 9:00pm
Israeli News Live: US/NATO did have a plan to attack Syria with almost 800 aircraft (?). If the west wanted to knock-out Russian/Syrian/Iranian air-defense it would be a very large operation. The impression I (DJ) have is that such an operation could go very wrong for the "west". What if most aircraft and cruise missiles were shot down before they reach their target ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiipDbcpnHY

The approach by the west of Russia, Iran, China (R.I.C.) has to change. It is stupid to believe that you can "isolate" those countries, sanctions are hurting the west far more than R.I.C.-they border on one another !

There is no "military solution" for Syria. Fossil fuels are destroying live on Earth. The Syria-conflict is making other conflicts (both in the region Iran-Saudi Arabia, Turkey-Iraq but also India-Pakistan, North Korea https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/2196) more explosive. 

You can expect a conflict-domino-effect; an outbreak of war in one region can start other conflicts. That situation is impossible to get under control. 

Another reason why the Syria-conflict did not see a large scale NATO-action is that a lot of European countries do not want this escalation. Also support in the US(-military) for action that would bring "moderate jihadi terrorists" to power in Syria (and make their position stronger in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan- all aimed against Russia, Iran and China, has to be very limited.  

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2016 at 2:39am
The US has a history of supporting "moderates", from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan to "moderate leaders like Hitler and Mussolini" http://www.mintpressnews.com/noam-chomsky-us-pretty-supportive-attitude-toward-fascism-1930s/221193/. The "moderates" in Syria serve the interests of oil companies. 

Basicly; control over energy, natural resources, is defining power. You need metal to produce weapons, energy to use weapons. That is what the fight is all about, in Syria, Libya, Ukraine etc. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-07/war-syria-who-actually-blame If you want to be the only "super-power" you have to pay a price. 

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/10/is-the-us-preparing-a-false-flag-bombing-in-syria.html#more To get more support for a "war against Assad" the mass-media has to produce an image of "brutal dictatorship" "war against their own citizens"etc. Since Russian made aircraft are widespread around the world it is not that hard to produce a video of "Russians or Syrians bombing hospitals, killing children etc.". (Moon of Alabama also has a link to a twitter-account stating that a Chinese navyship arrived in a Syrian port). 


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2016 at 9:28pm
The US-Obama administration is falling back on the UN-security counsil with lies on bombing of Aleppo hospitals. http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/10/a-desperate-obama-administration-resorts-to-lying-and-maybe-more-.html#more (The current French government is still in support of the US-line, both Sarkozy and Le Pen are not).

http://www.debka.com/article/25712/Obama-set-for-Mosul-battle-leaves-Aleppo-to-Putin- Realyzing that further full-scale intervention only damages the "western"position in Syria the US is trying to get a leading role in the battle for Mosul (and giving up support for the "moderate terrorists" in eastern Aleppo). 

https://www.rt.com/usa/362070-clinton-syria-wikileaks-speeches/ In a 2013 (overpaid elite-only) speech h.clinton was in favor of attacking Syrian airdefense even if that would kill a lot of civilians.

https://www.rt.com/news/362069-yemen-bombing-saudi-us-support/ The Saudi bombing of rhe funeral of the father of an ex-minister killed over 140 civilians. The Yemen-war is bringing hunger on a widespread scale. The US is backing this Saudi-Iran proxy-war. The Yemen-war is a disaster for Saudi Arabia-spilling over into KSA from time to time. Propaganda-wise the KSA-led Gulf-states (US backed) coalition is pushing even more moderate countries against them. 

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/10/08/488230/germany-us-russia-steinmeier In the "cold-war" there were two "parties" things were much more clearer then. In Germany "Alternative for Germany"is on the rise-they want trade with Russia, not sanctions (and certainly not more refugees from oil-wars).

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.nl/2016/10/the-saker-on-russias-options-against.html The US has limited options in Syria, support for a war is very limited.


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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