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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

Ten H7N9 cases confirmed in China,2 DEAD

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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    Posted: June 26 2017 at 2:40pm

Ten H7N9 cases confirmed in China as poultry outbreak noted

live-poultry_sales-sam_sherratt.jpg

Live poultry sales
sam sherratt / Flickr cc

Today the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection (CHP) reported 10 additional cases of H7N9 avian flu, all in men, including 2 deaths.

The illnesses were reported by mainland officials from Jun 16 to 22 and are 5 more than the center reported last week.

Nine out of the 10 patients had known exposure to live poultry or poultry markets. The men's ages range from 31 to 79, and the cases are reported from a wide swath of China, including two each in Beijing and Sichuan, and one each in Anhui, Guizhou, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Tianjin provinces and in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

The CHP said the newest cases should promote strict hygiene practices.

"Travellers to the Mainland or other affected areas must avoid visiting wet markets, live poultry markets or farms." the CHP cautions. "They should also avoid purchasing live or freshly slaughtered poultry, and avoid touching poultry/birds or their droppings. They should strictly observe personal and hand hygiene when visiting any place with live poultry."

High-path outbreak in poultry

In related news, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) confirmed today that highly pathogenic H7N9 caused a poultry outbreak in China's Heilongjiang province.

The outbreak involved 20,150 sick birds, 19,500 deaths, and 16,610 destroyed birds among a flock of 36,111 birds, for an apparent mortality rate of 54% and a case-fatality rate of 97%. The poultry farm is located in the northeastern part of China.

China first detected highly pathogenic H7N9 in poultry in February, in birds in Guangdong province's live-poultry markets.

Resistance in macaques

Finally today, a recent study in the Journal of Infectious Diseases showed that immunocompromised macaques were more likely to develop treatment-resistant strains of H7N9 avian flu even after receiving high doses of antivirals.

The research adds to the growing understanding of antiviral resistance to H7N9.

To conduct the study, researchers infected healthy and immunocompromised macaques with H7N9 virus and treated them with oseltamivir (Tamiflu). The immunocompromised monkeys had higher morbidity and mortality than their healthy peers, and while oseltamivir treatment at two different doses reduced A(H7N9) virus titers in all infected animals, it did not sufficiently suppress the virus to prevent the emergence of resistant variants.

12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 9:33am
20,150 birds infected and 19,500 dead.

Let that sink in. It went from completely asymptomatic in birds to a very accomplished killer in a year. And in this instance, it managed to infect 54% of the flock. These are some of the scariest numbers I've seen in a long time. Do the math and imagine that spreading in humans - a clinical attack rate (CAR) of 54%, with a case fatality ratio of 97% would be three and a half billion.

Unlikely to happen (I hope), but it raises the bar somewhat given that this isn't a hypothetical virus, but one that's roaming China right now. This bug is clearly capable of huge leaps if it gets to practice on enough of the right hosts, and it's testing the water with humans right now. Give it enough tries, and this will go H2H in a heartbeat.

And now it's showing antiviral resistance...Confused




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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 2:56pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

The men's ages range from 31 to 79, and the cases are reported from a wide swath of China, including two each in Beijing and Sichuan, and one each in Anhui, Guizhou, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Tianjin provinces and in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.



"A wide swath of China".

An entrenched, widespread and evolving virus that's still on the move given that Mongolian cases are becoming more common. That 100 year anniversary is getting awful close. Just saying...


"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 4:25pm
Maybe we should snap up the copyright on "I had a bird called enza"

I opened the window and "in flew enza"

Very popular in 1918.....
12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 4:27pm
I still say it started with the thousands of dead pigs in the river 2014
12 monkeys!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 5:05pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Maybe we should snap up the copyright on "I had a bird called enza"

I opened the window and "in flew enza"

Very popular in 1918.....


Albert already has inflewenza.com - I believe he got a package deal that included plagueoflocusts.net, ohcrapimcoveredwithweepingbloodypustules.com, and imcravingbrains.org  LOL





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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2017 at 7:21pm
lol
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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