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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

The Coming of the Ice Age 2019

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Technophobe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2019 at 11:18am
No.

Averaged over all land and ocean surfaces, temperatures have warmed roughly 1.33°F (0.74ºC) over the last century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (see page 2 of the IPCC's Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers (PDF)). More than half of this warming—about 0.72°F (0.4°C)—has occurred since 1979. Because oceans tend to warm and cool more slowly than land areas, continents have warmed the most (about 1.26°F or 0.7ºC since 1979), especially over the Northern Hemisphere.

Source:   https://globalclimate.ucr.edu/resources.html#q3
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2019 at 11:35am
In fact, the whole site at https://globalclimate.ucr.edu/index.html, which is a colaboration between NASA and the University of California, is well worth a visit.



Pertinent to this whole thread, it debunks several myths about climate change such as:

The difference between climate and weather: https://globalclimate.ucr.edu/resources.html#q1 which seems to be completely misunderstood on this thread,

The fact that the majority of scientists accept man-made-global-warming as a fact and only debate a few fine details:   https://globalclimate.ucr.edu/resources.html#q8 also either ignored or disbelieved on this thread,

'And, of course, The whole explanation of the way it happens: https://globalclimate.ucr.edu/resources.html#q2. No one is guilty of having a poor education; the only guilt comes from not trying to rectify that situation.

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NASA has some more information for the interested here: https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ but even though that is fascinating, it does not explain the connection between climate change and the recent polar vortex.


So, here is another scientifically respected site to explain things:   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180112091209.htm

Belief is irrelevant, this is scientific consensus. True, the cutting edge of science can sometimes be found in the fringe, but for every Tessla there are a thousand reincarnations of Napoleon. Most real science just plods slowly along.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2019 at 3:35am
Originally posted by Yeung Yeung wrote:

Wasn't the Earth warmer 2 degrees on average a mere 100 years ago by the way?


No links to articles to back that up?

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2019 at 3:39am
Originally posted by WillobyBrat WillobyBrat wrote:

...The only thing you can do to mitigate the circumstances is reduce carbon based fuel use and massively increase forestation...


Exactly. We keep hearing of emerging technologies that might be able to sequester atmospheric CO2, and everyone's still missing the point - we already have trees that will do just that. How do people think carbon ended up in the ground in the first place?

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2019 at 4:04am
Steward is hardly the guy I'd go to for environmental advice. He's one of a number of crazies that are trying to promote rising CO2 levels as a good thing. Here's his resume, by the way,

Chief exploration operations, Shell Oil Corporation, Houston, 1977-1979; vice president energy and minerals, Burlington Northern Inc., Billings, Montana, 1979-1981; executive vice president, chief operations office, Kilroy Company of Texas, Houston, 1981-1982; senior vice president, then executive vice president, Louisiana Land & Exploration Company, New Orleans, 1982-1984; president, chief operating officer, Louisiana Land & Exploration Company, New Orleans, 1984-1988; chairman Chief Executive Officer, Louisiana Land & Exploration Company, New Orleans, since 1989. Chairman LL&E Petroleum Marketing Inc., LL&E Pipeline Corporation, LL&E (United Kingdom) Inc.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2019 at 4:18am
To all....I am enjoying reading every post, thank you!

I recently moved from the Chicago, Illinois USA region to Arizona. When we left Chicago, the temperature the night before we left was -23ºF (-30ºC), which was a record for my own suburb of Aurora, Illinois! Parts of Illinois were colder than Point Barrow, Alaska or regions of the Antarctic!   It was grim moving.

One thing that throws everyone off is the sheer scale of the situation....we are dealing with a planetary scale, something that we rarely have to deal with in our everyday lives. Earth is impacted by our own dumping of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (yes, they trap heat and no, they are NOT good "plant food"). This is compounded by a lull in solar activity, which has been linked in the past to minima such as the Maunder Minimum.

What the heck is going on? There are a number of factors that combined, result in what we now call "climate disruption" -

a) the planet is still coming out of its previous major ice age, which takes millennia. Chicago used to be covered by over 1 mile of ice sheet, which is a staggering thought....our Great Lakes in the USA (Michigan, Superior etc.) are the result of the retreat of this massive ice sheet.

b) our planet is impacted by cosmic radiation, which causes cloud nuclei to form and results in cloudier skies. Clouds are extremely complex and hard to model - they both reflect sunlight as albedo, cooling the planet, but can also trap heat. The Danish astronomer Svensmark has written about "the chilling stars," please seek these readings out online, they are very controversial but fascinating reading!

c) There is a theory called "Milankovitch cycles" which states that long-term climate change is partly the result of orbital variation of the Earth in relation to the sun. Please see: http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/student/howard2/theory.htm

d) On top of all of this, the Earth's position in the galaxy may be a factor!! Our solar system moves throughout our galaxy (Milky Way), and this causes variation in the amount of cosmic radiation impacting out atmosphere, resulting in variation in cloudiness (Svensmark).   However, it is a controversial (and fascinating) theory: https://physicsworld.com/a/galactic-link-to-climate-change-in-doubt/

SUMMARY: We are dealing with a massive planetary system, going through many changes on a relatively short time frame. There is some regional heating and cooling observed, but overall, the mean temperature of the planet notches upward ever higher. There are some winners and losers in a global warming scenario, but overall, it appears that many/most of us will be losers.

Greetings from "warm and sunny" Arizona USA!!

https://kvoa.com/weather/2019/02/21/storm-of-the-century-historic-snowfall-in-the-cards-for-mount-lemmon/

TUCSON – A strong area of low-pressure west of Las Vegas will slide to the southeast Thursday evening and hammer southeastern Arizona with a heavy dose of winter.

http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/student/howard2/theory.htm

https://physicsworld.com/a/galactic-link-to-climate-change-in-doubt/

https://kvoa.com/weather/2019/02/21/storm-of-the-century-historic-snowfall-in-the-cards-for-mount-lemmon/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2019 at 6:52am
Thanks Chuck! You reminded me of one of the points I meant to make before; I must be getting senile.

CO2 as 'plant food'

CO2 is a waste product of respiration (breathing) which ALL life does, from the smallest bacterium to the giant blue whale. Even those life forms which do not use oxygen (like yeast) produce it (that is why the 'home brew' bubbles). Too much poisons and kills ALL life.

When they are photosynthesising, plants use CO2 and release oxygen. But they do not release all the oxygen made, or get all their CO2 from the atmosphere; some of it comes from their own respiration. In the dark there is only respiration, because CO2 is a poison to them too. That is why you get tree die-offs around hot springs with CO2 vents.

All plants except unicellular ones breathe through tiny pores on their leaves called stomatophores. They use these to take in CO2 in sunlight too. As CO2 levels rise, plants cut down the number of these pores on each leaf, BECAUSE OTHERWISE THE RAISED CO2 LEVELS WOULD SICKEN OR KILL THEM. This can actually SLOW DOWN photosynthesis.

Some CO2 is necessary, too much is very bad. Many plant species are already showing a significant statistical reduction in the number of stomatophores per leaf.

So, even if you insist on misunderstanding CO2 as a food, they are dying from gluttonus indegestion already.

My silviculturist Hubby informs me that this poisoning weakens the plant (especially if it is a tree) and can make them vulnerable to other attacks like fungi and insects. This is happening now and worsening. Beech trees are particularily vulnerable as are olives and elms. The last of those species are now critically endangered; when I was a child, they were common.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2019 at 2:40pm
The recent polar vortex we've been experiencing is precisely because of global warming. It's believed that unusually high temperatures in the arctic have allowed areas of ocean that were normally covered by sea ice to release stored energy, disrupting the localized rotational flow of cold stratospheric air and driving it much further south than normal. It's not an indicator of an impending ice age - it's the result of a warming climate, initially driven by out of control CO2 emissions, and now augmented by water vapor and methane.

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2019 at 2:55pm
'And it has its winners too:

The temperature here in February is usually anywhere from -5*C to -25*C. Today it was +14*C
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2019 at 3:03pm
We've had horrible weather in San Diego - a stretch of the 8 freeway a few miles east was actually closed because of black ice and snow, which is unheard of here. We even had a few hail storms a few days ago - enough to leave a layer on the ground that made walking tricky, and big enough to hurt
For the first time since I moved here 27 years ago, I have views of the local mountains covered with snow on my morning commute. And we've had so much rain in the past few weeks that severely drought stricken areas are already approaching normal annual rainfall. On the plus side, the desert is blooming, and we finally have clear blue skies today. Still awful chilly at night, but at least it's dry.

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2019 at 3:51pm
Look on the bright side. The cold kills all sorts of nasties: biting, stinging and food-crop eating ones.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 8:12am

The Coming of the Ice Age by J.B. Michaels

For years I have been posting about the complete inaccuracy of the mythological global warming which would make it warmer in the U.S. and Europe. This is false. The melting of the Ice caps has diluted our Gulf Stream lessening the warming effect it has upon America and Europe. Also the Sun's activity is at an all time low - ever more so then its normal cycles - which are bringing about a period of cold which may last a hundred years.

The reason we are no longer in agreements which would not even effect China or many of the major producers of C02 is that a rise in C02 is actually causing plants to thrive and whatever measure we took would only effect the climate by a few degrees for centuries.

A mini-ice age is coming - and my friends in Canada daily tell me it has never been this bad in their life - with temperatures continuing to drop. They must heat their car motors for them even to start and we are seeing a devastating effect in the Great Lakes and East as Ice Tsunamis hit.

Of course it is beyond crazy to call for an end of the use of fossil fuels. For the first time in years, the U.S. is a major, the major exporter of oil, and as we are hit with this, it is coal that is keeping many people alive. Get a clue. Many politicians are only interested in power, and could care less about racism, sexual preference, violence, poverty,or real issues - especially climate. Cold is like a virus - it doesn't care who it hurts, how it shuts down airports or ruins the cell ability of electric cars like Tesla. Jack Webb, Dragnet said "Just the facts, ma'am." The modern techno and economy illiterate newbie congress people now say "don't confuse me with the facts. I just go by my feelings - reality be damned. If it feels good - do it and if it feels bad destroy it." So most of our national holidays have been ruined and most of the ideas and morality American was based on destroyed. And God - is an embarrassing word they still can't get off our money, the family and the institution of marriage, failing. The road to socialism would lead to economic chaos and America, finally to the joy of our enemies and billionaires financing a revolution, would become Third World and never be great again.

John Bell - Medclinician - "not if, but when"





It is snowing in Hawaii


"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 1:37pm
so adding 5.5 billion people to this planet over the last 150 years,

plus adding all the CO2 from Cars ,Boats and Planes

that has been stored for billions of years,in the form of COAL, OIL and GAS

has done Nothing to alter the the chemical balance of this planet,

you have to have your chemical balances in your Head checked to believe that this hasnt had an effect on this planet,


https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi7u_Db6NfgAhUCcCsKHaiYA2gQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=http%3A%2F%2Fglobalchange.uw.edu%2Fclimate-change-and-health%2F&psig=AOvVaw32uVR0SgF-10lPIPQ_VnEQ&ust=1551216104944992


12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 1:43pm
Beyond crazy is confusing local with global, weather with climate and science with faith.

Then again, what do I know? I'm just a woman after all. (I have a science background and an IQ in the top 2 or 3% of the world's population. I confess my science training was not in climate, but the physical chemistry tallies with current climate models, as does the mathematical modelling.)

I know the US is experiencing exceptionally cold weather at the moment, but the US is only 9.834 million square kilometers in area: whereas the earth's surgace is 510.1 million square kilometers in area. That means that the US is just under 1.93% of the Earth's surface. The local cold is very nasty but hardly proof of Global cooling.

Over here and across Scandanavia we are breaking temperature records for February, as is Australia, The poles are even more unusually warm.

Beyond crazy also describes Trump's total lack of scientific acceptance. Sadly, he will probably have finished his term(s) before this one comes back to haunt you.

The world is in big trouble, but with rising temperatures not falling ones. It is probably too late to stop it now but we have to try, or die before trying. I want my children to have a future.

This might be a hazard encountered by all technological civilizations. That would explain why, despite the Drake equations, CETI has only heard one signal and that unrepeated.


Quoted References:

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=us+land+area,
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=earth%27s+surface+area,
https://www.accuweather.com/en/aq/amundsen-scott-south-pole-station/2258520/february-weather/2258520
and https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/north-pole-ak/99705/february-weather/336714
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 1:46pm
so far we here in Perth have had the MILDEST summer i can remember in the 30 years i have been here,

the rest of Australia has had and is still having Drought,Floods, Extreme heat,

my brother in law in Queensland is having to have Water carried in to fill his water tank ,No rain.......


12 Monkeys...............
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 1:51pm
a lesson in Coal production......

Coal was Made........

300 million years ago
Most of the coal we use now was formed about 300 million years ago, when much of the earth was covered by steamy swamps. As plants and trees died, their remains sank to the bottom of the swampy areas, making layers and layers of plant material and eventually forming a soggy, thick material called PEAT.
12 Monkeys...............
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 1:54pm
a lesson in Oil production.....

Crude oil was made over millions of years from tiny plants and animals, called plankton. The plankton on the left would form oil in about 150 million years time if the sea bed is not disturbed. The plankton that lived in the Jurassic period made our crude oil. This was the time of the dinosaurs.
Origins of oil - School Science
resources.schoolscience.co.uk/ExxonMobil/infobank/4/origin.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 1:56pm
a lesson in Gas production.....

How long does it take for natural gas to form?
Like oil, natural gas is a product of decomposed organic matter, typically from ancient marine microorganisms, deposited over the past 550 million years.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 1:58pm
and we are burning this "STUFF "

OVERNIGHT .......

IN GEOLOGICAL TERMS..................
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 2:08pm
In a word, Carbon, INSANITY, but not as nuts as ignoiring the science. Using the fossil stuff when we did not know what it was doing made sense. Refusing to believe the science does not.
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