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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

The Coming of the Ice Age 2019

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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2019 at 5:24pm
This is a great discussion. I'm going to make a pot of tea this evening and read it in full so I can join in. We need more discussions like this.

One fact that can't be disputed is the levels of CO2 in our atmostphere, that for millenia have sat below 300 ppm (parts per million) and this year will top 410 ppm. Levels haven't been this high in the last 400,000 years and who know what this will mean for life on earth.

From my perspective here in NZ, just looking out my window I can see changes in our weather patterns: our droughts are harsher and longer, our wet weather is wetter and more prolonged with frequent flooding events, our winters have been milder and our summers hotter. We have been getting stronger winds and fiercer storms, and that's just in my tiny corner of the world. We are not equipped globally for extreme weather events, and yet this is what we are seeing more and more of.

If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2019 at 9:44am
'And just over the pond from KiwiMum, in Australia................


'Whole thing is unravelling': climate change reshaping Australia's forests

Our wide brown land     The forgotten climate change crises

Droughts, heatwaves, bushfires and rising temperatures are driving ecosystems towards collapse

Graham Readfearn
@readfearn

Wed 6 Mar 2019 17.00 GMT

Last modified on Thu 7 Mar 2019 06.05 GMT


Eucalyptus forest

Researchers have found that big eucalypts grow slower as temperatures rise thanks to climate change.

Australia’s forests are being reshaped by climate change as droughts, heatwaves, rising temperatures and bushfires drive ecosystems towards collapse, ecologists have told Guardian Australia. Trees are dying, canopies are getting thinner and the rate that plants produce seeds is falling. Ecologists have long predicted that climate change would have major consequences for Australia’s forests. Now they believe those impacts are unfolding.

“The whole thing is unravelling,” says Prof David Bowman, who studies the impacts of climate change and fire on trees at the University of Tasmania. “Most people have no idea that it’s even happening. The system is trying to tell you that if you don’t pay attention then the whole thing will implode. We have to get a grip on climate change.”

According to the 2018 State of the Climate Report, produced by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, large parts of the country are experiencing increases in weather patterns favourable to fires. The report found that rainfall has dropped in the south-east and south-west of the country, temperatures have warmed by an average of 1C, and a “shift to a warmer climate in Australia is accompanied by more extreme daily heat events”.

Dr Joe Fontaine, an ecologist at Murdoch University, says forests across Australia are changing. “Impacts are direct – trees dying from heat and drought – as well as indirect – more fire, fewer seeds and a raft of associated feedbacks.”

Fontaine says leaves are the “machinery that makes the plant work” and how those leaves cope with heat depends on moisture reserves. “The question then is, how much do you have in reserve? A lot of us are really concerned about that.”

Fontaine has studied one large shrub species – the south-western native Hooker’s banksia – and found seed production has “halved in the last 30 years”, which was “definitely a climate-driven problem with increased drought”.

Last spring, Fontaine and colleagues inspected an area 300km north of Perth where the banksias had been hit by fire several years earlier. He wanted to know if they could cope with fire on top of the area’s long-term reduction in rainfall.

“At this stage, years after fire, those plants should be recovering and really going for it,” he says. “Except instead these banksias were dead and falling over left and right. The young plants were dying too – this area was losing all their young vigorous plants. With more bushfire, this species is at real risk of being wiped off the map.”

The interval squeeze

A study of the impacts of a heatwave in 2010 and 2011 in the south-west that followed long-term drops in rainfall found that the the large jarrah eucalypts and the area’s giant banksias were severely affected. A knock-on effect, another study found, was that the area became even more prone to fires.

Bowman says the impacts of the changing climate are “absolutely” happening. Bowman and colleagues have found that big eucalypts grow slower as temperatures rise and alpine ash forests are at risk of being wiped out because fires are coming along too often.

This is part of a phenomenon known as the “interval squeeze” where species that are adapted to cope with drought or fire, struggle when the time between impacts gets shorter.

Bowman says the idea that Australia’s forests are well adapted to the country’s variable climate and can withstand fire and drought, ia incorrect. “A big misapprehension is that these things are climatologically flexible, but they’re just not,” he says, explaining that Australia’s dominant eucalypts have “fine-tuned their life history around assumptions of fire frequency”, but “climate change is just blowing that up”.

“All this is non-linear,” he says. “What will happen is the system will crash faster than we realise. Yes, it will reassemble and there will be forests, but they won’t look anything like what we have now. We are going to see this transformation before our eyes.”

Predicting the future?

The climate change impacts are not only restricted to old-growth forests – the changing climate is also causing problems for groups trying to reforest areas that have been previously cleared.

Usually, revegetation projects will gather seeds from the local area to sow or propagate in a practice known as provenance planting.

But two major groups are using climate projection tools to second-guess the changes in rainfall and heat expected in the areas where they are planting.

Landcare Australia and Bush Heritage Australia have started to source seeds from places that better match the climate conditions in coming decades.

Dr Matt Appleby, a senior ecologist at Bush Heritage Australia, says that in about 2014, the group began to see dead patches in a replanting project at Nardoo Hills in Victoria, and the problem worsened each year.

“We had a heatwave back in 2014 with about a week of temperatures well over 40C and that was combined with already low soil moisture,” he says. “We think that combination meant the trees were under so much stress they reach a critical point and were dying.”

Now the group has started a climate-ready revegetation project for the reserve. Even among the same species of tree, there can be subtle genetic variations that give the same species different tolerances depending on where they are growing.

The group has used climate tools to find areas in the country known as “climate analogues” that match the hotter and drier conditions expected at Nardoo.

“We are collecting seeds from those locations and bringing them to Nardoo Hills to propagate and plant out,” Appleby says. What happens then is that in 20 years the seeds of those plants will be better adapted to the area – they should have that little bit more resilience.”


Appleby is concerned the job of gathering seeds for rarer species could get more difficult. “Trying to get seed this past year has been incredibly difficult. What happens if in five years’ time we get a run of 49C days?” he says.

“How are we going to get seed then if everything is under pressure? People need to start thinking about seed banks and seed production areas so there’s enough seed down the track to sustain this.”

Dr Shane Norrish, the chief executive of Landcare Australia, says like many other organisations carrying out major revegetation works, climate change was presenting a challenge. For one major revegetation project at Dakalanta on the Eyre peninsula, Landcare Australia has also used this “climate-ready” approach when sourcing some of their seeds.

“What you will never be able to deal with is the run of extreme hot days that we’ve experienced in southern Australia – that level of extreme variability challenges everyone.”

Sourcehttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/07/whole-thing-is-unraveling-climate-change-reshaping-australias-forests

Originally posted by Medclinician Medclinician wrote:

a rise in C02 is actually causing plants to thrive and whatever measure we took would only effect the climate by a few degrees for centuries.
Are you sure the plants are thriving, Med?






Technophobe:   The yellow highlights are mine.]
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2019 at 9:30pm
Plants do grow bigger with more CO2 ,

however their nutrients are less,

therefore you need more to get same nourishment......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2019 at 9:35pm
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ask-the-experts-does-rising-co2-benefit-plants1/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2019 at 1:59am
Thanks, Carbon! Fascinating article!

They dealt with cereal/farinaceous plants only though. Trees show the poisoning effect of excess CO2 at much lower concentrations, as does seaweed. Excess nitrogen, which produces overgrowth of certain CO2 emitting species and an increase in carbonic acid (produced from atmospheric CO2) between them cause the dead zones in oceans. Out of thousands of these zones, only one has ever recovered.

BASIC BIOLOGY/BOTANY:

'Plant growth is limited by the concentration of the nutrient least available to it.' For the purposes of that statement, CO2, water, minerals, heat and sunlight are considered as nutrients. But, All biological processes operate within set parameters and optimum function is only attained within narrower ones.

To draw a comparison: you need water to live, but would probably die both from a lack of it in a desert, or drown from too much if you were dropped in the middle of the Pacific. Too little or too much is fatal; those are the wide parameters for water. But in addition to that, people who do not drink enough water (or fluids with water in) function at reduced efficiency, get headaches, poor digestion, constipation and have bad kidney function or even develop nephritis, they suffer illnesses more severely and have lots more health problems. Less well known are the statistics of those who drink too much, [urlhttp://www.urban75.com/Drugs/drugxtc1.html[/url] is a case in point. The effects of too much damage more babies than adults, who show reduced growth/failure to thrive if formula is mixed with too much water. Like trees and seaweed using excess CO2, they are more succeptable to extremes within the fatal parameters.


60% of the oxygen we breathe comes from the oceans, trees produce most of the rest. Worrying!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2019 at 5:49am
From http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html:

A catastrophe of unimaginable proportions is unfolding. Life is disappearing from Earth and all life could be gone within one decade. Study after study is showing the size of the threat, yet many people seem out to hide what we're facing.

In the Arctic alone, four tipping points look set to be crossed within a few years:
Loss of the Arctic sea ice's ability to act as a buffer to absorb incoming ocean heat
Loss of Arctic sea ice's ability to reflect sunlight back into space (albedo)
Destabilization of sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean
Permafrost melt

Crossing these tipping points triggers a number of feedbacks that kick in at accelerating speed, including even more absorption of heat by the Arctic Ocean, further changes to the Jet Stream resulting in even more extreme weather, seafloor methane release, water vapor feedback and emissions from land such as CH₄ (methane), N₂O (nitrous oxide) and NOₓ (nitrogen oxide), due to permafrost melt, storms and forest fires. Temperatures also threaten to rise strongly over the next few years as sulfate cooling falls away while more black carbon and brown carbon gets emitted as more wood gets burned and more forest fires occur.

A recent study points at yet another tipping point, i.e. the disappearance of marine stratus clouds, which could result in a global temperature rise of eight degrees Celsius (8°C or 14.4°F). In the model used in the study, the tipping point starts to occur at 1,200 ppm CO₂e, i.e. a stack of greenhouse gases including CH₄, N₂O, CO₂ and H₂O, and changes in clouds resulted in global surface warming of 8°C at 1,300 ppm CO₂e, as stratocumulus decks did break up into cumulus clouds and evaporation strengthened, and average longwave cooling at the level of the cloud tops dropped to less than 10% of what it was in the presence of stratocumulus decks.

This 8°C rise would come on top of the warming that would already have occurred due to other warming elements, resulting in a total rise of as 18°C or 32.4°F from preindustrial, as pictured on the right and below.

(DJ-See for the full article the link on top)

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/South-Slammed-Deadliest-US-Tornado-Day-Six-Years

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Wettest-Winter-US-History

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/03/eight-years-on-water-woes-threaten.html Fukushima

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/03/a-game-of-two-halves-extreme-cold-in-us.html

DJ-A possible worst case scenario would see "extreme weather event after extreme weather event"-we most likely are already are in that phase.
https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2019/03/why-aerosols-are-killing-us.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2019 at 2:22pm
the chemical balance ,that enabled life to exist and thrive for millions
of years,

has over the last 175 years come under attack from a Large bipedal animal,

it has thrived to the extent that NOW IT HAS BECOME A HAZZARD TO ITS SELF,

Look back to what happened 175 years ago,

the INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION................

this bought with it and the Prime reason the Animal has gotten its self into a big mess

THE USING OF COAL...........

to power MACHINES ,

(THE "LUDDITES" have proven to be right after all......)

No Cars, Planes,or Powered Ships ,175 years ago ,

and only 2 billion of these ANIMALS,

NOW WE HAVE 7+ BILLION of these Animals,

Squandering the planets Resourses like there's no TOMORROW

we Humans ,are ,as Dutch Josh says

"DJ-A possible worst case scenario would see "extreme weather event after extreme weather event"-we most likely are already are in that phase. "

heads in the sand.........





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2019 at 2:24pm
https://www.bl.uk/georgian-britain/articles/the-industrial-revolution



The Industrial Revolution
Article written by:
Matthew White
Published:
14 Oct 2009
In this article Matthew White explores the industrial revolution which changed the landscape and infrastructure of Britain forever.
The 18th century saw the emergence of the ‘Industrial Revolution’, the great age of steam, canals and factories that changed the face of the British economy forever.

Early industry
Early 18th century British industries were generally small scale and relatively unsophisticated. Most textile production, for example, was centred on small workshops or in the homes of spinners, weavers and dyers: a literal ‘cottage industry’ that involved thousands of individual manufacturers. Such small-scale production was also a feature of most other industries, with different regions specialising in different products: metal production in the Midlands, for example, and coal mining in the North-East.

Two illustrations of 18th century textile production
Two illustrations of 18th century textile production
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New techniques and technologies in agriculture paved the wave for change. Increasing amounts of food were produced over the century, ensuring that enough was available to meet the needs of the ever-growing population. A surplus of cheap agricultural labour led to severe unemployment and rising poverty in many rural areas. As a result, many people left the countryside to find work in towns and cities. So the scene was set for a large-scale, labour intensive factory system.

Steam and coal
Because there were limited sources of power, industrial development during the early 1700s was initially slow. Textile mills, heavy machinery and the pumping of coal mines all depended heavily on old technologies of power: waterwheels, windmills and horsepower were usually the only sources available.

Changes in steam technology, however, began to change the situation dramatically. As early as 1712 Thomas Newcomen first unveiled his steam-driven piston engine, which allowed the more efficient pumping of deep mines. Steam engines improved rapidly as the century advanced, and were put to greater and greater use. More efficient and powerful engines were employed in coalmines, textile mills and dozens of other heavy industries. By 1800 perhaps 2,000 steam engines were eventually at work in Britain.

Early 18th century depiction of a steam engine
Early 18th century depiction of a steam engine
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New inventions in iron manufacturing, particularly those perfected by the Darby family of Shropshire, allowed for stronger and more durable metals to be produced. The use of steam engines in coalmining also ensured that a cheap and reliable supply of the iron industry’s essential raw material was available: coal was now king.

Factories
The spinning of cotton into threads for weaving into cloth had traditionally taken place in the homes of textile workers. In 1769, however, Richard Arkwright patented his ‘water frame’, that allowed large-scale spinning to take place on just a single machine. This was followed shortly afterwards by James Hargreaves’ ‘spinning jenny’, which further revolutionised the process of cotton spinning.

The weaving process was similarly improved by advances in technology. Edmund Cartwright’s power loom, developed in the 1780s, allowed for the mass production of the cheap and light cloth that was desirable both in Britain and around the Empire. Steam technology would produce yet more change. Constant power was now available to drive the dazzling array of industrial machinery in textiles and other industries, which were installed up and down the country.

New ‘manufactories’ (an early word for 'factory') were the result of all these new technologies. Large industrial buildings usually employed one central source of power to drive a whole network of machines. Richard Arkwright’s cotton factories in Nottingham and Cromford, for example, employed nearly 600 people by the 1770s, including many small children, whose nimble hands made light-work of spinning. Other industries flourished under the factory system. In Birmingham, James Watt and Matthew Boulton established their huge foundry and metal works in Soho, where nearly 1,000 people were employed in the 1770s making buckles, boxes and buttons, as well as the parts for new steam engines.

Two illustrations of 18th century textile production
Two illustrations of 18th century textile production
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Though not all factories were bad places to work, many were dismal and highly dangerous. Some factories were likened to prisons or barracks, where workers encountered harsh discipline enforced by factory owners. Many children were sent there from workhouses or orphanages to work long hours in hot, dusty conditions, and were forced to crawl through narrow spaces between fast-moving machinery. A working day of 12 hours was not uncommon, and accidents happened frequently.

Transport
The growing demand for coal after 1750 revealed serious problems with Britain’s transport system. Though many mines stood close to rivers or the sea, the shipping of coal was slowed down by unpredictable tides and weather. Because of the growing demand for this essential raw material, many mine owners and industrial speculators began financing new networks of canals, in order to link their mines more effectively with the growing centres of population and industry.

The early canals were small but highly beneficial. In 1761, for example, the Duke of Bridgewater opened a canal between his colliery at Worsley and the rapidly growing town of Manchester. Within weeks of the canal’s opening the price of coal in Manchester halved. Other canal building schemes were quickly authorised by Acts of Parliament, in order to link up an expanding network of rivers and waterways. By 1815, over 2,000 miles of canals were in use in Britain, carrying thousands of tonnes of raw materials and manufactured goods by horse-drawn barge.

Extract from An essay on the present state of our publick roads
Extract from an 'essay on the present state of our publick roads'
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Most roads were in a terrible state early in this period. Many were poorly maintained and even major routes flooded during the winter. Journeys by stagecoach were long and uncomfortable. London in particular suffered badly when wagons and carts were bogged down in poor conditions and were left unable to deliver food to markets. Faced with these difficulties, local authorities applied for ‘Turnpike Acts’ that allowed for new roads to be constructed, paid for out of tolls placed on passing traffic. New techniques in road construction, developed by pioneering engineers such as John McAdam and Thomas Telford, led to the great ‘road boom’ of the 1780s.

The improvements achieved by 18th century road builders were breathtaking. By the 1830s the stagecoach journey from London to Edinburgh took just two days, compared to nearly two weeks only half a century before.

Written by Matthew White
Dr Matthew White is Research Fellow in History at the University of Hertfordshire where he specialises in the social history of London during the 18th and 19th centuries. Matthew’s major research interests include the history of crime, punishment and policing, and the social impact of urbanisation. His most recently published work has looked at changing modes of public justice in the 18th and 19th centuries with particular reference to the part played by crowds at executions and other judicial punishments.

The text in this article is available under the Creative Commons License.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2019 at 11:40pm
The dilemma is wether geo-engenering will be able to solve climate change-at least buy us time. Or could it worsen the problem even further....

I (DJ) believe in "hopium", one should never give up hope with a mix of a sense of realism. Some thoughts;

-Starting a "nuclear winter" wich may kill almost all of life (and leave the planet behind as a nuclear mess) is proberbly not such a good idea.

-I believe in simplicity; increase withe surfaces on the globe to reflect the heat-would that work ? Use the increase of temperature to transfer it in "clean energy"? Can it be done on a wide enough scale to slow down global heating ?

-When politicians believe that climate change is a problem-and most of them do-would it then not be wise to "encourage" people to have less children ? There is a link between climate change and population growth. (Here we will get in conflict with freedom of religion a.o. the China one-child-policy as a model for the long term ? )

-To solve climate change related problems will need a large mix of answers, on a global scale. Are we ready for a "global government" and how to deal with those that do not want to contribute to solutions ?

-You can think of a lot of scenario's. In the best-case scenario climate change would not be a real issue. It does not look that way-maybe in some magical way with some feedbacks one may hope it works out that way. In the (sorry to say-more realistic scenario's) worst case we are already (far) out of time. The "IPCC-model" at least gives us time (but maybe not on a very realistic scale).

-At least one could claim "people are working on a global scale to solve the problems of climate change". Reality will force countries, people, to take more action. (And to be honest-we all as individuals have our own responsibility-we can note hide behind politics).

-Even when you believe in worst case scenario's to be realistic one has a duty to avoid as much as possible disasters. (The idea that it does not make any difference wether you take action or not-may be realistic-but at least one has to think about it. There are that many actions possible-from becoming vegetarian and giving up the idea of starting a family-on an individual level to closing coal-plants (and start building nuclear plants instead of them ????) that at least some action may be wise.

-There are also "less clear consequences"of climate change. How will the "end of bees" effect the food-chain ? How will health issues develop ? A return of Malaria and Cholera to Europe (it disappeared here some 90 years ago), how will TBc develop ? How will plant/animal health unfold ? There were some reports of an increase of UV (including even UV-C) ? Is the G5-digital network making climate change worse ? (Most likely digital techniques do have an effect on climate change. Are we turning this planet into a micro-wave-oven ?)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2019 at 12:23am
Dutch Josh, you raise a number of interesting questions in your post and here are my thoughts on some of them:

I don't think there will ever be a global government unless there is global domination by one nation who declares war on the rest of us and wins and therefore gets to rule the world. The reason I think this is because any other type of global government would be an opt in situation and that is already failing when it comes to climate change. For politicians who are generally late middle aged people, they don't really care about the world in 50 years time as they won't be here to see it. We all want everyone else to have to live by rules and restrictions whilst we ourselves get to do whatever we want.

As for countries facing the reality of climate change and then being forced to change, the big players like the US will be the last to feel it. Will they really care if they lose areas of land to coastal inundation? No because they occupy a huge land mass. In the meantime, countries at sea level will disappear and their occupants become climate refugees looking for somewhere else to live. Unfortunately the Netherlands will be in this catagory.

Will the individual deny themselves the joy of parenting just for the greater good? No. I wouldn't. And even countries like China are abolishing restrictions of family sizes because of their top heavy populations and the realisation that there won't be enough workers to keep the elderly and to pay taxes.

Honestly, in my opinion, I think the best thing that could happen to this planet is some kind of deadly haemorrhagic fever to sweep the globe and wipe out 99% of us. It sounds horrific but it would serve a purpose.

Finally, I think we are way past the point of no return in climate change. The momentum that has built up can't be stopped. We just need to prepare as best we can.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2019 at 12:01am
KiwiMum-my reaction;

-A "world-government" could come in the form of the IPCC, Paris-climate agreement etc. gaining importance due to more extreme weather events (EWE). (We have had so many EWE I stopped following it. The latest cyclone hitting Mozambique-Beira (main port for the country), Zimbabwe, Malawi might be an example. Only with international help the region may recover.)

-The US itself is hit hard by climate change and EWE. In a worst case scenario even the US may need international help to keep some form of government, trade, infrastructure. When the US would have to deal with several Kathrina-like events in a few months (killing thousends, extreme flooding, possible nuclear/energy/chemical disaster) even the US might get overstretched. (It is not the politics that is in control-disasters take over, international aid organizations and cooperation of countries-as a result. So far politics is failing in dealing with climatechange. There is a Dutch saying; The shore will stop the ship.)

-People want to have their children to have some sort of decent future. You do not start a family when you expect major disaster in the near future-at least that is how I see it. (There are also other trends; better educated women want less/no children at a later age. Men being less fertile. It will get-even without climate change-more likely that population growth slows down/decreases. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-19/era-negative-population-growth-coming-soon)

-There may be "several points of no return in climate change". We are above the 1,5C temperaturerise when you take 1750 as the baseline. The heathcontent in the ocean-so already there-most likely will worsen the global climate very soon. Going for solar/wind does not effect the heat in the oceans and the arctic. Also the chemistry in the atmosphere has changed already that dramatic only "radical steps" can effect that. https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva is hoping for some major volcanic eruptions to block solar energy/heat to slow down climate change.

-The planet may not survive with a form of life without some form of "geo-engenering" even when we are not sure of the results. "Nuclear winter" as a form of geo-engenering most likely will speed up the destruction proces.
If there is a rich elite planning to survive the disaster they are the main cause of they might want to go to space, the moon or so. In my opinion planet Earth is moving to a Venus-state.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2019 at 1:52am
we need to figure out how to vent the CO2 into space....

There's a big vacume cleaner out there,

A.C Clark had an idea about a space elevator,why not a ring of satalites that collect CO2 and pump it into space....
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Gulf Stream system at weakest point in 1,600 years
CLIMATE CHANGE | 11.04.2018

A further weakening of the system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean could wreak havoc on the Earth's climate. But there isn't too much reason to be overly concerned about a looming ice age — at least not yet.
Two new studies have found that the system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean is exceptionally weak — and its strength, or lack thereof, could have serious ramifications for the global climate.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) — also known as the Gulf Stream system — is often described as part of the global ocean conveyor belt. It transports warm water from the Atlantic toward the Arctic, which influences the relatively mild climate of Western Europe.

In the northern Atlantic, this surface water eventually cools and sinks to the bottom of the ocean, where another current transports it south to Antarctica before circulating back to the Gulf Stream and beginning the cycle anew. This entire process is known as thermohaline circulation.

However, a team of researchers from University College London (UCL) and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) have offered evidence from marine sediment that the AMOC is currently at its weakest point in the past 1,600 years.

Another study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) used climate model data and historical records of sea surface temperatures to reveal that the AMOC has been rapidly weakening since 1950 as a result of rising temperatures linked to global warming.

Both studies, which will be published together in the April 12 issue of Nature, strongly suggest that the AMOC has weakened over the past by 150 years by at least 15 percent to 20 percent.


Cold water in the Golf Stream comes up from the Antarctic
A new understanding of the climate

Scientists have been studying the changes in the AMOC for decades, mostly through the use of computer simulations that predicted the circulation would slow down as a result of global warming.

However, the new studies represent the most compelling evidence yet that the AMOC is weakening. David Thornalley, one of the lead researchers of the UCL/WHOI study and senior lecturer at the UCL, said the findings will help scientists understand the longer-term context of how the AMOC is changing.

"We only have very short, direct observations since 2004, and that means it's been very difficult to gain any longer-term perspective of the decline we've been seeing over the last 10 years and if that's part of any longer-term trend," he told DW.


In marine sediment research, material is dredged off the ocean floor
"Our study has used new techniques with marine sediment core — so relatively direct evidence — to extend, in effect, our observations and allow us to place what's happening today in a longer-term context."

Levke Ceasar, a PhD student and a researcher with the PIK study, says the results confirm what scientists already assumed about the AMOC.

"Climate models have predicted that the overturning circulation in the Atlantic will slow down due to global warming," she told DW.

"Our study shows that yes, it is already happening. Since the mid-20th century we have seen a slowdown of the overturning circulation by about 15 percent."

Read more: Arctic warmer than Europe is a worrying sign of climate change

What does this mean for the planet?

As an important component of our planet's climate system, if the AMOC continues to weaken, weather patterns could be disrupted across the United States and Europe, and even the African Sahel region.

"The broader climate system as a whole has a lot of factors and a lot of complexity, and researchers are trying to better understand that," Thornalley said.

The AMOC is responsible for warming places like northwest Europe by up to 4 to 6 degrees Celsius. "If that were to weaken, then you would lose that source of heat. Because it transports heat around the globe, it kind of helps determine where climate patterns are."

Even if a weakening of the AMOC doesn't trigger a new ice age, it could lead to stronger winter storms hitting Europe from across the Atlantic
For example, if the AMOC weakens, there could be a shift in tropical rainfall belts or strengthening of the winter storms that cross across the Atlantic into Europe. It may also cause a more rapid increase in sea level along the East Coast of the United States due to changes in ocean density.

However, Ceasar says the exact impact it may have on the climate is unlear.

"We think that the AMOC may already have an impact on the weather in Europe," she told DW.

"For example, the 2015 European heat wave has been linked to cold [sea surface] temperatures in the sub-polar Atlantic." Although this sounds like a paradox, it happens since "low, sub-polar sea surface temperatures change the air pressure distribution that channels warm air into Europe and can lead to heat waves," she explained.

Read more: Climate change and extreme weather: Science is proving the link

Infografik Karte Golfstrom ENG
Worst-case scenario

Scientists don't necessarily think the Earth could enter a new ice age as a result of the Gulf Stream. In fact, the theory that the Little Ice Age, which occurred between 1460 and 1550, was linked to the weakening of the AMOC has been disproven by the latest study from UCL/WHOI.

A worst-case scenario, however, could result in a complete shutdown of the AMOC. Farfetched though it may seem, scientists have said that based on what they know, this is not a totally impossible scenario.

"The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change research says a complete shutdown has something like a 5 to 10 percent chance of happening by 2100," Thornalley said.

There are still improvements to be made in our understanding of the system, he added.

"There is a possibility that a shutdown could occur, and that is why we invest money into monitoring this system. Although it may be unlikely, if it did happen, it would have very severe consequences."

HOW HOLLYWOOD PORTRAYS CLIMATE CHANGE
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