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The falling knife...

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Turboguy View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 03 2018 at 12:47am
I hope nobody caught it.

That was the biggest pump and dump bubble in stock market history and its showing no signs of slowing down.

Bitcoin has lost ~50% of its value in just under a month, pretty much from where I said "Don't buy that crap" and is showing no signs of slowing down. Last time I looked on Thursday that, I hasten to say, "commodity" was down more than fifteen percent. Typically if I MAKE fifteen percent year over year on a single stock I am giddy. A fifty percent drop in a month and upwards of fifteen in a day and if you're holding it, you're going to be stuck with it.

I don't even think a cost benefit analysis buypoint would be a good idea at this point. (Where you buy now, then continue to buy as it goes down hoping it goes back up)

The problem with Bitcoin is that it is only worth as much as anyone will pay for it digital ones and zeros, which means it has no intrinsic value. Even black dirt has a value. I can hold it in my hand and grow a plant in it.

Further, people were only using it to get around taxes. Now that governments are getting wise and either shutting down exchanges or outlawing it altogether, people are flooding the market hoping to get out from under it before it craters.

I've made a couple moves in the last few days, weird ones too, and none of which are digital currency. Kinda wish you could short the heck out of bitcoins, lol.

My moves were:
LL - I bought $2000 and if it's down further on Monday, I'll buy another $2k.
RIG - I already owned quite a bit and added to my position. It pays a fifteen cent per share dividend. Oil is thinking of going up. Further, the tax cut seems to be putting more money into people's pockets, that means more travel, shopping etc. all of which cost gas.

I'm keeping a close eye on Target corporation right now. If that stock gets down under $60, I will make a move there.
Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2018 at 11:08pm
^Thanks, Turboguy!  My feelings as well....what is the intrinsic value of the thing? 

However, the same was said about credit cards vs. cash in the beginning, and now many folks don't carry any cash!  The panhandlers in Chicago are even complaining! 

I could see cryptocurrency catching on in a BIG way if one nation were to give it some backing....Japan, China, ?  

I often thought that if Scotland went for independence, they could use a crypto currency to help ease the jump.  Maybe all the Brits should do it, with Brexit coming up!  

Best, Chuck
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2018 at 11:43am
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

^Thanks, Turboguy!  My feelings as well....what is the intrinsic value of the thing? 

However, the same was said about credit cards vs. cash in the beginning, and now many folks don't carry any cash!  The panhandlers in Chicago are even complaining! 

I could see cryptocurrency catching on in a BIG way if one nation were to give it some backing....Japan, China, ?  

I often thought that if Scotland went for independence, they could use a crypto currency to help ease the jump.  Maybe all the Brits should do it, with Brexit coming up!  

Best, Chuck


I highly doubt any nation would go to a deregulated currency like that.

It would be nice, and my gut tells me that were any (refutable) country to do it, and do it right, they would find that they were suddenly in control of the backbone currency as the rest of the world would flood to that currency to escape the taxes of their home country. It is, of course impossible for the simple reason that there isn't no pot of money government doesn't want its greedy claws in.

Problem with any country taking ownership of a crypto is that it would be a backdoor to a "Cashless Society." Many countries are flirting with this idea for the simple reason that once you make that move, *ALL* transactions can be tracked, and thus, taxed.

The odds of China doing anything freedom-centric are right up there with Kim Jong Un saying, "Screw this" and moving to a Seattle suburb.
Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2018 at 11:54am
Nice to see you back Turbo!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2018 at 12:08pm
Originally posted by Penham Penham wrote:

Nice to see you back Turbo!


Thanks.

But I have a new job that doesn't let me login as much as before.

Though it came with quite a change in location (see where my IP is, tee hee)

With a significant jump in money. And I like money.

The only problem is when the "SHTF" sirens and texts went off a couple weeks ago. People went pretty crazy. Sticking their kids down the sewer pipe... some of those kids ended up in the hospital from that crap. So stupid.

I was at work and there are supernova proof shelters there. I, for one, grabbed a bag of chips and a Mountain Dew in preparation for the best firework show ever and was disappointed.
Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2018 at 5:48pm
Ahhh, nice! I lived there for 3 years when I was a kid, dad in the military.

I also have a new job as of last summer so I haven't been on as much either. I hope that changes now that I am getting things in order at work.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2018 at 10:54am
Trump in huge trouble

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/6/1739180/-Trump-in-huge-trouble

Unless Congress gets its act together, the federal government will default on its debt in a few short weeks. This event would set off a constitutional crisis and a global financial crisis. And it would be not some inevitable catastrophe but wholly man-made, created by an inept White House and a Congress too distracted, disorganized or greedy to act in the nation’s best interest.


it isn't just Trump in trouble


its US in trouble and in a BIG way

“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Gary Kasparov
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2018 at 2:36pm
The problem isn't a political one, as the article attempts to stick the blame on Trump, as much as it is a fiscal chickens coming home to roost issue.

The last three (Not counting the current guy) administrations and the Fed have screwed around with ultra low interest rates to quite the detriment of the stock market and U.S. Economic indicators. Trump has had little if anything to do with the current problem we find ourselves in, which is why it is laughably hypocritical to pile this on him. He could immediately have the Fed raise interest rates to where they SHOULD be, but then he would get to take credit for knocking a full 50% off the stock market, and I just don't see him doing that.

The problem is that people, and I mean the American public, like big numbers. Dow at 25000? It's (The economy) doing great! Right? Well in order to keep those numbers high, they have been fudging with the interest rates, especially in the previous administration, to record breaking low levels. Did you buy a house in the last eight years? A car? Well, done, you are benefitting from near zero interest rates, that's a good thing.

The bad part is that those low interest rates aren't going to last forever. They can't. It's not healthy. Even now they're putting a massive deflationary pressure on everything, while inflating the money supply. Now even TALKING about raising interest rates sends the markets down three percent and rightly so. If the interest rate was set to a rather paltry 5% the INTEREST on the debt alone would be a trillion dollars. At seven percent the interest would be the same as the debt. At eleven percent the interest rate would be more than the total economic output of the United States.

During the 0bama years of loose, bordering on inept, fiscal policy what should have been a short term cure has become the new normal. In many places they're even talking about negative interest rates, where you would LOSE money by saving in a bank, so as to spur people to spend.

So while I agree that the US is in trouble in a big way, the funny thing is that those of us who economy have been screaming this for the last ten years and we're called chicken little.

We should have taken the hit then, we could have stepped down off a step. Now we are swan diving off the Sears Tower.

Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2018 at 10:49pm
Turbo.... If Trump is not to be blamed for the 'Correction' (and I agree with you that a lot of the trends are long term responses to things like low interest) then he should not have taken credit for the run up in the stock prices over the last year. 
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