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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

The Next Pandemic - Not if but when

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    Posted: November 10 2017 at 10:58am
For almost 10 years since I was posting on AFT I have been tracking these viruses. At that time Henry Niman and I were talking, but currentlyHenry has disappeared from the face of the earth as far as I know netwise.

I spoke with him about a year ago and he was very subdued and still tracking viruses in Asia where he felt the next Pandemic would arise.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/H1N1-Flu-The-Pandemic-of-2009-1574957

In February 2009 a young boy in the small Gulf-coast town of La Gloria, Veracruz, Mex., fell ill with an influenza-like disease of unknown cause. Within weeks nearly 30% of the town’s residents had been affected by a similar sickness, and people in nearby villages had fallen ill as well. The young boy, however, was the only individual from the region to test positive for a new strain of influenza virus—named swine influenza, or swine flu, because it contained genetic material from existing swine flu viruses. He represented the first documented case of the disease and thus became known as “patient zero.” By mid-March a sickness resembling the one from La Gloria had emerged in Mexico City, and not long after, cases of the respiratory illness were reported throughout the country. After several infected persons died, the country’s health officials decided to send more than 50 patient samples to a lab in Canada for analysis. When 16 of them turned up positive for swine flu, authorities at the World Health Organization (WHO) convened an emergency meeting to assess the situation.

I was online connected to the WHO when Margaret Chan made the announcement. There had been almost two hours that I waited while met with a group - still unnamed consisting of people very powerful that she had to get permission from to declare a Pandemic.

On June 11, 2009, the World Health OrganizationExternal Web Site Icon (WHO) signaled that a global pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) was underway by raising the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 6External Web Site Icon. This action was a reflection of the spread of the new H1N1 virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus. At the time, more than 70 countries had reported cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection and there were ongoing community level outbreaks of novel H1N1 in multiple parts of the world.


This is what I heard her say...

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_pandemic_phase6_20090611/en/


Statement to the press by WHO Director-General Dr Margaret Chan

11 June 2009

Ladies and gentlemen,

In late April, WHO announced the emergence of a novel influenza A virus.

This particular H1N1 strain has not circulated previously in humans. The virus is entirely new.

The virus is contagious, spreading easily from one person to another, and from one country to another. As of today, nearly 30,000 confirmed cases have been reported in 74 countries.

This is only part of the picture. With few exceptions, countries with large numbers of cases are those with good surveillance and testing procedures in place.

Spread in several countries can no longer be traced to clearly-defined chains of human-to-human transmission. Further spread is considered inevitable.

I have conferred with leading influenza experts, virologists, and public health officials. In line with procedures set out in the International Health Regulations, I have sought guidance and advice from an Emergency Committee established for this purpose.

On the basis of available evidence, and these expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met.

I have therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6.

The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic.

Medclinician

The actual video




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 11:13am
It was different back then. Since the mutation had emerged Smithfield Foods in Gloria, Mexico it soon moved north into the U.S. However, this was in June, not the classic Flu season when this was announced. The worst was yet to come.

Australia prepared for the arrival of the Pandemic.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 11:17am
Several months ago I began a thread on AFT on the dangers of a coming bad Flu Season in Australia. This was also put up. Something was wrong. There were more cases early in the season and large outbreaks which was nowhere in mainstream media. Except for some press from Australia the rest of the new on Australia was silent. When I did a Google on it my post on AFT was nearly the first to come up with only 2 others. Someone was hushing up a serious outbreak.

http://avianflutalk.com/flu-outbreak-australia-its-back_topic36529.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 11:26am
And then it mutated and headed for the U.K.

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Published on Oct 22, 2017
Britain epidemic warning: Deadly strain of flu could kill thousands IN WEEKS




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 11:35am
What is happening and why?  The h3n2 virus or h3n2v has mutated. Is this just a guess or maybe or has it actually happened?

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-11/uops-hmi110317.php

Public Release: 
PHILADELPHIA - The low efficacy of last year's influenza vaccine can be attributed to a mutation in the H3N2 strain of the virus, a new study reports. Due to the mutation, most people receiving the egg-grown vaccine did not have immunity against H3N2 viruses that circulated last year, leaving the vaccine with only 20 to 30 percent effectiveness.

Scott Hensley, PhD, an associate professor of Microbiology, in the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, describes his team's findings in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences this week.

"Our experiments suggest that influenza virus antigens grown in systems other than eggs are more likely to elicit protective antibody responses against H3N2 viruses that are currently circulating," Hensley said. "The 2017 vaccine that people are getting now has the same H3N2 strain as the 2016 vaccine, so this could be another difficult year if this season is dominated by H3N2 viruses again."

Flu vaccines work by priming the immune system with purified proteins from the outer layer of killed flu viruses. This induces immune cells to make antibodies that stop foreign invaders from infecting cells, readying them to attack flu viruses when the body sees them again. Most flu vaccine proteins are purified from a virus grown in chicken eggs, although a small fraction of flu vaccine proteins are produced in systems that do not involve eggs.

During the 2014-2015 flu season, a strain of the H3N2 virus with a different outer layer protein emerged and this version of H3N2 remains prevalent today. The 2016-2017 seasonal flu vaccine was updated to include the new version of this protein; however, Hensley's lab found that the egg-grown version of this protein acquired a new mutation. "Current H3N2 viruses do not grow well in chicken eggs, and it is impossible to grow these viruses in eggs without adaptive mutations," Hensley said.

The team showed that antibodies elicited in ferrets and humans exposed to the egg-produced 2016-2017 strain did a poor job of neutralizing H3N2 viruses that circulated last year. However, antibodies elicited in ferrets infected with the current circulating H3N2 viral strain (that contains the new protein) and humans vaccinated with a H3N2 vaccine produced in a non-egg system were able to effectively recognize and neutralize the new H3N2 virus.

"Our data suggest that we should invest in new technologies that allow us to ramp up production of influenza vaccines that are not reliant on eggs," Hensley said. "In the meantime, everyone should continue to get their annual flu vaccine. Some protection against H3N2 viruses is better than nothing and other components of the vaccine, like H1N1 and influenza B, will likely provide excellent protection this year."

comment: Who caused it to mutate? The people who made the vaccines.

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https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/here-s-one-reason-flu-vaccines-are-so-lousy-they-n818046

Nov 6 2017, 6:33 pm EST

Researchers have identified one more important reason flu shots don’t usually work very well — it’s because they are grown in chicken eggs.

Flu viruses mutate every year and it turns out the methods used to make flu vaccines cause them to mutate even more, the researchers found.

“How you prepare the vaccine can have profound effects on how humans respond to it,” said Scott Hensley of the University of Pennsylvania, who helped lead the study.

It’s one more reason the world needs to develop more modern methods of making flu vaccines, says Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

“We need to get away from the antiquated production model, which the egg is,” Fauci said.

comment: If the current vaccine is not that effective and causes the virus to mutate even more, we very likely could be on the way to a Pandemic as in continues to develop in a more virulent and deadly strain.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 1:47pm
i wonder if the people advocating getting away from eggs have a financial interest in other ways to produce antivaccines.......

just asking ,dont have much faith in business people......aka cancer treatment springs to mind 700% rise in price .............

pity everyone not like Salk
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 11 2017 at 1:17am
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

i wonder if the people advocating getting away from eggs have a financial interest in other ways to produce antivaccines.......

just asking ,dont have much faith in business people......aka cancer treatment springs to mind 700% rise in price .............

pity everyone not like Salk


It is possible.  Here are some dirty fingers I tracked during the last Pandemic.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1176743/Donald-Rumsfelds-controversial-links-drug-company-Tamiflu.html

The drug company behind the swine flu medicine Tamiflu is at the centre of controversy over its links to former US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Mr Rumsfeld, a former chairman of the company, has refused to comment on whether he still holds shares in Californian firm Gilead Sciences, which developed the drug now being desperately stockpiled by governments around the world to combat the threatened pandemic.

Last night an associate of Mr Rumsfeld said: ‘He does not publicly discuss his private finances.’

However, should Mr Rumsfeld have held on to shares in the company, he would be a major beneficiary of the surge in the global demand for the drug. The NHS alone has already purchased enough Tamiflu to treat three-quarters of the population in the UK.

comment: I never used Tamiflu. I just fought an infection I caught from my son and wife who nearly died from it and finally got them Tamiflu which saved their lives.

Tamiflu is no longer as effective as it was then.

It may be the other companies want to start and take over the market but still I can see the validity in the egg argument as you look deeper. It is very plausible that injecting it into chicken eggs challenges the virus in a hostile environment and promotes mutation.

If so, we are in serious trouble. We will be creating an over one hundred million people culture medium for the evolution of a more mutated h3n2.

I had this - still have it - and it is similar in some ways to the Hong Kong Flu I had years ago. It just doesn't go away. You think it's done and then it comes back - it drops into your deep lungs and camps. There is also a stomach flu component that makes you have nausea and vomiting. Let's hope there is no neural component which makes you crazy too. That was the super-virus I have been predicting for 8 years and could work with Norovirus by sending it chemical message as a tag team.

If we get this kind of phenomenon again it could real bad. We did have it during the Pandemic where diseases spread together almost working in tandem.

We have a real problem in trusting the CDC to give us accurate data more now than ever. They didn't back then and behind the scenes I was told it was "more dangerous to panic the people than tell them the truth". Also I was told by people from Madison - I knew a nurse who was fired as she uncovered a real issue... and spoke to me.  She had worked for this guy.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/07/controversy-simmers-over-gof-flu-research-wisconsin

Fresh controversy has erupted over influenza research by Yoshihiro Kawaoka, DVM, PhD, of the University of Wisconsin (UW), with a British newspaper alleging in a Jul 1 story that he created a new strain of 2009 H1N1 (pH1N1) virus that could spark a pandemic, and the university branding the story as biased and largely wrong.

In that story and in an earlier media report, a UW Institutional Biosafety Committee (IBC) member publicly questioned the safety of Kawaoka's flu research. Two university biosafety officials fired back yesterday, saying the committee member, Thomas Jeffries, PhD, had passed up opportunities to tour Kawaoka's lab and to learn the details of his work.

comment: Which brings us to a much more interesting topic. When this new flu first hit the U.S. guess where it was widespread the first week of flu season - Guam.  Yea, there is a tasty morsel - why Guam?

Could this be a trace of North Korean dirty viral development fingers?  I mean why bomb Guam when you can give it a nasty flu. Who is going to be able to pin the tail on the Kim Jong-un donkey for a bio weapon?  Who would even admit the North Korea could make one - or if they could  buy it from Iran or other countries with bio weapons programs?

We have not reached "The Stand" yet (novel by Stephen King) where some very scary virus with a 99% mortality rate makes people drop to their knees in hours and perish in a bleeding Ebola type mess. That is the reason the mainstream government (yes there is such a thing) the main propaganda arm which deliberately controls the media and most information releasing leaks to fortify whatever is the desired flavor by the day is not concerned with a Pandemic.

The current flu may kill people but not that many.  Until we get to the magic 5% which collapses the entire U.S. infrastructure they take a Scrooge approach "eliminate the excess population".

This is rather sinister isn't it. We want to believe they are white hats when actually the loss of one third of the most sick, the disabled and minorities would probably create an economic boom and relieve them of billions of health benefits to pay.

Disturbing. Almost as disturbing as what I was told by the person at Madison. "They no longer require doctors to count the CFR of anyone but children because they don't care." They don't anymore. We have not CFR  for two years on CDC on the Internet. It is "don't ask - don't tell".

So if we were hit by a nasty epidemic even, we are not going to know who died. Did we have anything accurate in Australia? No. They are "still counting".

By the time they release information, if we are in trouble it will be too late to do anything. It was like that during the last Pandemic and it will be in the next.

So - we sit and wait - and I will keep tracking this - while I have it. That is always fun. And hope it and my personal case of the flu goes away.  Dream on. It could be a very nasty flu season and also very cold a great environment for people getting it even worse.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 31 2017 at 6:42am
Things are looking worse as the H3N2 strain spreads across America. Of course, this possible pandemic did not start in Mexico, it mutated in Australia cause them a very bad season and the current egg based development of vaccine has been shown to cause it to mutate even more.

We do not have an effective health care system in place and definitely do not have one in place in the U.S. which could deal with a Pandemic. One more wild card, North Korea and Kim Jong-un are actively developed bio-weapons. Why put them in a missile. A few deadly infected people would be undetected if they had no fever and were asymptomatic.

No one is talking getting prepared at any level of government or on the media. There are few books out on it.

Not if but when. There is a Pandemic on the way.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 31 2017 at 12:38pm
Med- I posted this back in July but with the political arguments roaring I doubt if many read it! H3N2 mutated in, surprise, surprise -Hong Kong.


Mutation may be behind surge in flu cases this summer, Hong Kong experts say

Surge in number of cases could be due to variation in dominant strain, which may have rendered vaccines used in past two years ineffective

Mutation in a dominant flu strain might be the reason behind a surge of cases in Hong Kong this summer, a top infectious diseases expert has warned, calling for radical change to be made in the current public health strategy.

The findings came as the Hospital Authority yesterday announced that it was spending HK$20 million to secure 48 extra beds in a private institution to increase the capacity of public hospitals in the next two months.

Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, who is the chair professor in the University of Hong Kong’s microbiology department, said the dominant strain influenza A H3N2 in the city this summer might have mutated in a way that made vaccines used in the past two years ineffective.

This “antigenic variation” in the H3N2 virus was also recently found by Danish researchers.

“The importance of this mutant to this epidemic is still in doubt. But this is still one of the possibilities contributing to this outbreak,” Yuen told the Post.

utpatient clinics to fight flu

Yuen, whose observation was also shared by the department’s honorary assistant professor Dr David Christopher Lung, called on the government to incorporate additional precautionary measures in its strategy, including giving out a two-week dosage of antiviral drug Tamiflu to elderly people in nursing homes and public outpatient clinics starting from next week. In the long run, Tamiflu should be given to every resident in elderly nursing homes once one gets infected.

He also suggested that people getting flu vaccinations should use a medication named Imiquimod, as taking them together would extend the effectiveness of the vaccine by another 12 months.

Official figures showed that close to 41 per cent of respiratory specimens taken by the authority last week tested positive for flu viruses, reaching a new high this year.

The two professors also found that the number of H3N2 virus samples tested with mutation had increased from 20 per cent in March to more than 35 per cent in May this year.

At the same time, the pair said, the effectiveness of the vaccines administered to the public late last year was diminishing – lasting about only six months.

Since May, a total of 205 adults and three children have died from flu.

A Department of Health spokesman said offering Tamiflu as a preventive measure to those who are not exposed to health risks would not be a justified move.

“But the department will consider the recommendations [from the professors] as part of a review of flu prevention strategies,” he said.

The experts’ call came as the Hospital Authority announced its plan to buy bed services from privately run St Teresa’s Hospital in the next two months to accommodate more patients with urgent needs at Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Yau Ma Tei.

Under the plan, patients recovering from surgery who are expected to be discharged within seven days at the public hospital will be transferred to St Teresa’s. The patients will pay the same price charged by public hospitals – HK$120 a day.

“If the scheme operates well, we will extend it to other public hospitals in Kowloon,” said Dr Cheung Wai-lun, the authority’s director in cluster services.

He added that about five private hospitals might offer assistance at a later stage.

Of the 121 patients who waited for more than 12 hours to get a bed in public hospitals over the past two weeks, 107 were from Queen Elizabeth Hospital.

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/2103673/mutation-may-be-behind-surge-flu-cases-summer-hong
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Originally posted by Qqqqqrrrrr Qqqqqrrrrr wrote:

The pandemic is close. You could deal with the flu with my help. But these prejudices have done their job. I am Russian. You could, with the power of my blood, create the most potent cure for influenza in the world. But CDC prefer to celebrate the New Year with an epidemic of flu than to take help from the Russian. Immunity at me is stronger in 2 times. I am Muslim. In summer, I washed my bath 2 times a day in ice, artesian water, and now 3 times a day in ice water from the tap. I live 2-storeyed one domain on the domain. On the advice of a local immunologist made 2 immunograms (a blood test). There, all indicators are exceeded. The deputy head of the health department of the city of Almetyevsk confirmed that I have very strong immunity and the local immunologist also confirmed. It remains to receive a confirmation from 33 polyclinics. The head of the speedcenter saw my analyzes surprised and with the joy of Dalva permission to re-analysis. But I'm in a hurry. Disabled 2groups since childhood for 2 rare internal incurable diseases, 1) diabetes insipidus for this disease for 36 years I take medication adiuretin. For this disease I can drink 20 liters a day. nNo taking medicine I drink from 3 to 5 liters of water per day 2 olivopontocebrial degeneration with otrophy created. For this disease I'm in a hurry. Because of the shakiness of penetration and double vision in the eyes I can get under the car. Due to the uncontrolled allocation of saliva constantly pressurized. I want to create the most powerful medicine for influenza in the world. the diagnosis mentally unbalanced after the holidays with the Almetyevsk Office of Public Prosecutor. Then I would like to invite a consultation of doctors to criminal liability.

PS I will kill any influenza virus with my legs.


I have messaged you about this and now you are posting in English instead of Russian. I find this very odd. You need to go to your local Russian research centers and have them work with you on this. There is nothing you can do on your own and until there is some medicine that people can take derived from whatever unique condition you have, there is no use in posting this over and over. It cannot help any of us in any way.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2018 at 11:01am
Rishat - I thought you said you weren't going to post anymore. That's three times now and you're still doing it. Nobody here can help you. Give it up. If your doctors don't care enough to make a vaccine from your blood, why should we?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2018 at 1:36pm
We all ( on this site)should know that a pandemic could /will happen at some time ,

no need to worry if  it is your time to go ,there will be nothing you can do to stop it.

just keep watching and listening,

just think the planet will be saved from 

US 

the human population 

that is ,

 the VIRUS KILLING THIS PLANET,

if US humans where gone from this planet,

do you think it would be bad or good for the PLANET ?

i think it would be GREAT ,

no more pollution from our WASTE ,the planet woud recover over time ,

and the remnates of the humans would rebuild ,

in about 3 thousand years  the Planet would need to get rid of the VIRUS all over .......

a pandemic is the planets  vaccine agains the HUMANS that killing  it,

well thats how i see it ...........
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2018 at 4:02pm
I have been on this for years - but more specifically predicting the coming of a Pandemic in 2018 for two months. The mutation didn't happen in Mexico this time - it came from the Aussies and now has hit us in the U.S. This h3n2 could turn deadly and is widespread in all but 4 states as of week 52 - 2017.

What is happening in the world.  For one thing Swine Flu is back and we are seeing various mutations and genetic drift in some bad virus strains.

from CIDRAP - January 9, 2018

WHO: Flu, mainly H3N2 and flu B, still rising in many parts of the world

Flu activity is still on the rise in Northern Hemisphere countries, with H3N2 and influenza B making up most of the detections, but some countries are reporting 2009 H1N1 activity, the WHO said yesterday in its latest global flu update.

In Europe, the flu increase has been sharp in some countries, with influenza B frequently found, while the main influenza A subtype varied by country and surveillance system type.

In North America, H3N2 is predominant.

West, East, and South Asian countries reported increased flu levels. In the Middle East, flu in Israel is mainly influenza B, while Jordan reported mainly the 2009 H1N1 strain. In East Asia, disease activity increased in both northern and southern China, led by the influenza B Yamagata lineage, followed by H3N2. South Korea also reported the same pattern. In South Asia, Iran reported increased activity from all three seasonal flu strains.

In northern Africa, activity rose in Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, much of it from 2009 H1N1. In the continent's western countries, flu showed signs of decline, with 2009 H1N1 the predominant strain in some locations such as Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast.

Globally, based on testing at flu labs through Dec 24, influenza A made up 65.2% of detections. Of subtyped influenza A viruses, 69.3% were H3N2 and 30.7% were 2009 H1N1.

comment: So we have H3N2 and the 2009 H1N1. The vaccine this season in the U.S. is offering little protection as it once more misses the mark - developed too soon and with egg methods which causes viruses to mutate.  It is going to get worse.

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