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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

The next plague

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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    Posted: June 22 2018 at 3:22am

The Next Plague Is Coming. Is America Ready?

The Atlantic-14 Jun. 2018
The 2009 H1N1 strain killed merely 0.03 percent of those it infected; by contrast, the 1918 strain had killed 1 to 3 percent, and the H7N9 strain currently ...
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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 22 2018 at 10:03pm
Interesting article. Strangely the thing I think will bugger us all in the western world when the next fatal pandemic comes, will be our complete reliance on disposable medical equipment such as masks, gloves, coveralls etc. We will simply find we run out of these very quickly and will be unable to resupply and we no longer have facilities within hospitals to wash and reuse cloth alternatives. 

The article talks about the 3 Ebola victims that were treated in America as having generated 3700 pounds of medical waste (gloves, masks, robes etc)and this cost $1 million dollars. 

I attended a talk about the Spanish Flu a few weeks ago and learnt that there are 15 million masks sitting in a warehouse in Wellington in readiness for a pandemic. NZ has a population of 4.5 million and those masks won't last long. They have to be replaced every few hours when they become wet from moisture in the breath.

Whilst the article talks of medical workers in the Congo working without any protective gear - not even gloves - and still doing their jobs, I don't think htere's a hope in hell that any western medical workers would put themselves as risk in that way, so we will end up with thousands, if not millions, of sick people with no one to care for them. 

Very scary. 
If it is to be, it is up to me.
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jacksdad View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2018 at 2:10am
Absolutely right -  the supply lines would be cut pretty quickly by a major pandemic and things would run out a lot faster than most people appreciate, including the very things that could potentially stop the spread of a virus, like masks, hand sanitizer and gloves. 




"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2018 at 3:17pm
And once medical centres realise that they are running out of masks and disposable protection items, there won't be a thing they can do about it as they have all disposed of their sluice rooms and stocks of linen masks and aprons years ago. Even if they wanted to reinstate the usage of such items they no longer have the items to use or the facilities in which to sanitise them. 

The other thing that worries me about any future pandemic, is that generally nurses today work such long hours and have so much medical responsibility - much more than they ever used to - that none of them undertake general hygiene issues, these are all farmed out to external cleaning agencies and consequently hospitals and the like are filthy. In the event of a pandemic, I don't think any nurse who qualified in the last 20 years would even know how to properly clean a ward, and even if he or she did, they would feel it was beneath them. 

When MRSA flourishes in hospitals across the world because we've become too reliant on anti biotics and complacent about hygiene, what hope would we have in a flu pandemic?

Over the last 3 weeks, we've had flu in our house. My son caught it after attending a nerd convention, and despite my best efforts, I came down with it too. My other son and husband avoided it. Now we live in a small three bedroomed house, with central heating and plenty of hot water and in every way we are luckier than most, and yet still I caught it. 

What on earth would happen in a crowded hospital / supermarket / prison / boarding school / sports stadium / or even a family home more crowded than ours? I was diligent about disinfecting surfaces and door handles and handles on the toilets, we were washing our hands and using tissues that were going straight into the fire - in other words, taking all precautions we could, and still it spread. 

We're over the worse now but it has made me think that the only way to keep safe if a killer illness came along would be to stay at home and isolate ourselves from everyone else until it passes. 
If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2018 at 3:35pm
Spot on.
Spot on, KiwiMum

An autoclave is just an oven with a timer for 10-30 minutes (depending on size and heat conductivity of item to be sterilized) and a thermostat for 125*C.   So, I wrap surgical supplies in plastic (roasting bags) and seal them up with micropore tape - which handles the heat well and can be labelled in biro afterwards with a date.  I don't think I have met a single nurse who could do that,  I doubt some doctors would. 

Our whole medical system has lost its self sufficiency.  We gained some great stuff in the trade and our life-expectancy has increased,.  But in a national crisis: help yourself, or do without.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2018 at 3:56pm
I agree Kiwimum. When my late husband had operations so many different types of operations I sanitized his room as soon as he was brought back from recovery. You would not believe how dirty each room was. I purchased hospital wipes and used Lysol on many surfaces. I also had to request that the Nurses and Doctors washed their hands if they touched my husband. I am sure they thought I was a little nutty. However, my husband NEVER had an infection. I spent 24 hours with him with all of his operations, never left him.

If we had a pandemic and I or my son do not get ill we will be lucky. We will stay at home if we have a pandemic and I would not go to a hospital it would be a death trap.
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2018 at 5:17pm
The first thing to go is food. The workers in the transport industry and the supermarkets will be too sick or too afraid to go to work.

Then the Law and Order will go as there will be food riots.

The entire medical system will break down and doctors and nurses will need to carry guns for patients and members of the public who will not wait their turn or who want a different story from reality.

All in all - if there is no food on the shelves people will be starving and will go marauding to feed themselves and their children.

This is going to be really ugly.

In the 1981-19 pandemic in the USA there were trucks going up and down the streets picking up corpses left outside houses.

The nightmare will be even worse with these new viruses. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thirza Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2018 at 2:16am
I AGREE WITH YOU read bout the anavar IN HOSPITALS YOU CANT IAMAGINE HOW DIRTY ROOMS THEY HAVE AND FOOD IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO LIVE
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 05 2018 at 3:18am
I read some doctors plan to bug out and hide and reemerge when its all over - they are real preppers - they know Docs and Nurses will die
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MaKeefe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2019 at 5:18am
Without a doubt right - the give lines would be diminish exquisite quickly by means of a major nawaz sharif news pandemic and things would run out burdens fast than most people regard, including the very things that would potentially stop the spread of an endemic, similar to covers, hand sanitizer and gloves.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2019 at 5:35am
I can tell you are using a translation app there MaKeefe. It is not doing you any favours. This is what I think you were trying to say:

"It is pretty certain that things would collapse quickly if a pandemic struck. Shortages would happen far faster than the majority of people expect, especially the very things most needed in a pandemic, like (I think by 'covers' you mean disposable aprons, but I am not sure), hand sanitiser and gloves."

Please run this back through the translator - and feel free to moan at me if I got it wrong.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2019 at 2:08am
Regarding the supply chain collapse during a major pandemic....food isn't the critical link, it is water.

All sub-groups will be impacted by a pandemic, including police, military and, particularly, public service employees who operate our drinking water and sewerage disposal plants. Many of these plants have undergone extensive automation in the past 20 years, but a vicious pandemic will reduce staffing to a level that reliable delivery of water and disposal of effluents will be impacted.

Think of your own larders....each of us probably has enough canned goods, dried foods such as beans/rice, etc. to live several weeks if the supply is carefully managed. However, if the water coming out of our taps is shut off, I doubt that many of us would be able to manage for more than a day or two.

Time to start identifying your closest natural supplies of water, if you have any available. My wife and I just relocated from Illinois USA to Arizona, a desert state, so I've got some work to do! Be safe, Chuck
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2019 at 12:07am
We were lucky to buy a place that is on rural water but also has two wells and three ponds! We've also set up a rain water collection system that we use during the dry season to water the garden! Here's a CDC site about collecting rain water that you may find useful.

https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/drinking/private/rainwater-collection.html


here is also an article from the Pepper's Journal on filtering rain water!

https://www.theprepperjournal.com/2013/07/11/100-year-old-way-to-filter-rainwater-in-a-barrel/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2019 at 8:20am
We had an historically severe drought last year. Our well ran dry for months. Rainwater became the only option after the end of the drought, as the water table had dropped and it took several months for the well to refil to usable levels.

So, rainwater became our only option for several months. I had no supplies or money to build collection or purification equipment. I had to improvise.

Luckily, most of our roofing was slate, only one small section was a plastic/tar substance. We collected the water from the newer roofing for plants and the slate water for us. We had lots of 20 litre buckets lying around too.

I cut the bottom off of a 2 litre bottle to make a big funnel. I fixed a double layer of cotton cloth over the neck of this bottle with a rubber band, to make a fine filter. I cut a hole in a big bucket's lid and forced the bottle in to hold it upright (an upside down, bottom removed, plastic plant pot helped). I lined the bottle with a nylon stocking, as a medium filter and I tipped collected rainwater into this through a simple kitchen sieve. This was our main water supply.

I boiled everything we drank; that was necessary. I sterilized a second bucket with household bleach and tipped all left-over boiled water into this. A third bucket was used to mix filtered water with a small amount of household bleach.

A 50/50 mixture of boil-sterilised and bleach-sterilised water did my washing up. Everything else got plain water - just filtered. Except, unfiltered water flushed the toilet (we have a septic tank and have to be careful of poisoning its bacteria). Why bother filtering that?

I had a kitchen full of buckets, but it was surprisingly easy. Well, at least not too hard. I don't recommend it as the "easy option", but I now know that emergency water reclamation is nothing to fear. Keep a few buckets with lids handy and use a bit of ingenuity. A small amount of bottled water, a couple of big barrels/water butts, a big pack of baby wipes (they halve your consumption - desirable if the water is hard work) and a bottle of cheap thin bleach are all the supplies needed in an emergency. If you can't even use the roof use a tarpaulin. If your roof is poluted, stick a layer of charcoal in the stocking part of the filter. I know; I'm living (and healthy) proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2019 at 7:00pm
Interesting timing. I'm in the process of reevaluating my preps with a greater emphasis on water storage. I have more dried preps than I could possible rehydrate with the water I have on hand, so some of it is going to make space for water.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2019 at 7:36pm
A few years ago we came off the county water supply scheme and sank our own well. We've been lucky that it hasn't dried up during the last 2 droughts we've had. It's quite deep at about 40m. We put in a wider bore than normal and of a thicker grade steel than normal to ensure a good flow of water and to withstand earthquakes better.

We now run an interesting water system for our household supply: we have 2 x 30,000 litre tanks side by side, and the first tank contains water straight from the well (it tops itself up when it reaches 75% full), this water then sits and settles as it contains alot of brown particles from the clay and gravel base the water sits in. It is also very iron rich so once it has settled, the whole tank full passes through an alternate media filter that is about 6 feet tall, and fills the second tank which supplies the house.

All irrigation to the veg garden comes from the untreated but settled water, all paddock irrigation and stock water comes straight from the well, and then we have other 30,000 litre tanks taking the rainwater from our barns and this water is used for irrigating our orchard. I still need to buy another tank as I have one building not collecting water, but I'm not sure if we need any more water as we have so much.

I'm very keen to keep our house tanks full always, hence the automated filling system we installed last year, as we have fire sprinklers in the house and in order for them to work, we need water in the tanks. Our giant filter is great as it cleans itself out after each filter session and you should see the colour of the water it flushes out - it's thick dark brown.

The biggest threat to us is from earthquake damage ruining our well. In that instance we'd have to rely on rainwater. For some time now I've had my eye on a portable diesel fuelled water pump with a 200 metre hose. If we had this then we've have no problem transferring water from our rainwater tanks into our house tanks and we could run it through the filter.

We do have one huge barn and we only need about 2 hours rain and it alone can fill a tank in that time. I did learn that e-coli can only live in a water tank for a couple of days - it can't survive longer than that due to the low temperature in such a large body of water so I'm not worried about bugs. We have no trees overhanging any roofs that collect water for us.

I have been meaning to put guttering on some of our smaller sheds so I could collect water if I needed to. The materials are easy to come by now but will be like gold dust in the face of a disaster. I'm going to put a large note on my fridge right now to remind myself to get on and do that.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ShizueCarver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2019 at 5:30am
Captivating article. Strangely the thing I think will bugger we all in the western world when the accompanying deadly pandemic comes, will be our completed reliance on unimportant therapeutic equipment, for instance, covers, gloves, coveralls, etc. We will fundamentally find we miss the mark on these overall quickly and will be unfit to resupply and we never again incorporate workplaces inside therapeutic centers to wash and reuse texture choices.
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