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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

The next plague

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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    Posted: June 22 2018 at 3:22am

The Next Plague Is Coming. Is America Ready?

The Atlantic-14 Jun. 2018
The 2009 H1N1 strain killed merely 0.03 percent of those it infected; by contrast, the 1918 strain had killed 1 to 3 percent, and the H7N9 strain currently ...
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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 22 2018 at 10:03pm
Interesting article. Strangely the thing I think will bugger us all in the western world when the next fatal pandemic comes, will be our complete reliance on disposable medical equipment such as masks, gloves, coveralls etc. We will simply find we run out of these very quickly and will be unable to resupply and we no longer have facilities within hospitals to wash and reuse cloth alternatives. 

The article talks about the 3 Ebola victims that were treated in America as having generated 3700 pounds of medical waste (gloves, masks, robes etc)and this cost $1 million dollars. 

I attended a talk about the Spanish Flu a few weeks ago and learnt that there are 15 million masks sitting in a warehouse in Wellington in readiness for a pandemic. NZ has a population of 4.5 million and those masks won't last long. They have to be replaced every few hours when they become wet from moisture in the breath.

Whilst the article talks of medical workers in the Congo working without any protective gear - not even gloves - and still doing their jobs, I don't think htere's a hope in hell that any western medical workers would put themselves as risk in that way, so we will end up with thousands, if not millions, of sick people with no one to care for them. 

Very scary. 
If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2018 at 2:10am
Absolutely right -  the supply lines would be cut pretty quickly by a major pandemic and things would run out a lot faster than most people appreciate, including the very things that could potentially stop the spread of a virus, like masks, hand sanitizer and gloves. 




"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2018 at 3:17pm
And once medical centres realise that they are running out of masks and disposable protection items, there won't be a thing they can do about it as they have all disposed of their sluice rooms and stocks of linen masks and aprons years ago. Even if they wanted to reinstate the usage of such items they no longer have the items to use or the facilities in which to sanitise them. 

The other thing that worries me about any future pandemic, is that generally nurses today work such long hours and have so much medical responsibility - much more than they ever used to - that none of them undertake general hygiene issues, these are all farmed out to external cleaning agencies and consequently hospitals and the like are filthy. In the event of a pandemic, I don't think any nurse who qualified in the last 20 years would even know how to properly clean a ward, and even if he or she did, they would feel it was beneath them. 

When MRSA flourishes in hospitals across the world because we've become too reliant on anti biotics and complacent about hygiene, what hope would we have in a flu pandemic?

Over the last 3 weeks, we've had flu in our house. My son caught it after attending a nerd convention, and despite my best efforts, I came down with it too. My other son and husband avoided it. Now we live in a small three bedroomed house, with central heating and plenty of hot water and in every way we are luckier than most, and yet still I caught it. 

What on earth would happen in a crowded hospital / supermarket / prison / boarding school / sports stadium / or even a family home more crowded than ours? I was diligent about disinfecting surfaces and door handles and handles on the toilets, we were washing our hands and using tissues that were going straight into the fire - in other words, taking all precautions we could, and still it spread. 

We're over the worse now but it has made me think that the only way to keep safe if a killer illness came along would be to stay at home and isolate ourselves from everyone else until it passes. 
If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2018 at 3:35pm
Spot on.
Spot on, KiwiMum

An autoclave is just an oven with a timer for 10-30 minutes (depending on size and heat conductivity of item to be sterilized) and a thermostat for 125*C.   So, I wrap surgical supplies in plastic (roasting bags) and seal them up with micropore tape - which handles the heat well and can be labelled in biro afterwards with a date.  I don't think I have met a single nurse who could do that,  I doubt some doctors would. 

Our whole medical system has lost its self sufficiency.  We gained some great stuff in the trade and our life-expectancy has increased,.  But in a national crisis: help yourself, or do without.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2018 at 3:56pm
I agree Kiwimum. When my late husband had operations so many different types of operations I sanitized his room as soon as he was brought back from recovery. You would not believe how dirty each room was. I purchased hospital wipes and used Lysol on many surfaces. I also had to request that the Nurses and Doctors washed their hands if they touched my husband. I am sure they thought I was a little nutty. However, my husband NEVER had an infection. I spent 24 hours with him with all of his operations, never left him.

If we had a pandemic and I or my son do not get ill we will be lucky. We will stay at home if we have a pandemic and I would not go to a hospital it would be a death trap.
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2018 at 5:17pm
The first thing to go is food. The workers in the transport industry and the supermarkets will be too sick or too afraid to go to work.

Then the Law and Order will go as there will be food riots.

The entire medical system will break down and doctors and nurses will need to carry guns for patients and members of the public who will not wait their turn or who want a different story from reality.

All in all - if there is no food on the shelves people will be starving and will go marauding to feed themselves and their children.

This is going to be really ugly.

In the 1981-19 pandemic in the USA there were trucks going up and down the streets picking up corpses left outside houses.

The nightmare will be even worse with these new viruses. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thirza Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2018 at 2:16am
I AGREE WITH YOU IN HOSPITALS YOU CANT IAMAGINE HOW DIRTY ROOMS THEY HAVE AND FOOD IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO LIVE
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 05 2018 at 3:18am
I read some doctors plan to bug out and hide and reemerge when its all over - they are real preppers - they know Docs and Nurses will die
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