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The ObamaCare Death-Spiral Star

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onefluover View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 27 2015 at 10:37pm
Obamacare flying machine begins a death spiral
Premiums are rising rapidly and the young and healthy are bailing out

Obamacare in a death spiral illustration by Greg Groesch/The Washington Times more >

By Sean Parnell - - Thursday, March 26, 2015

The Supreme Court decision in King v. Burwell, the case challenging the Obama administration’s decision to award tax credits for health insurance sold through federally established exchanges, could turn on the question of whether a ruling that ends the tax credits on federal exchanges might cause something known as a “death spiral” in health insurance markets.

The good news is the answer is probably no, but the bad news is that’s only because the death spiral has probably already started.

A death spiral generally occurs when insurers are forced to raise premiums sharply to pay promised benefits. Higher premiums cause many of the healthiest policyholders, who already pay far more in premiums than they receive in benefits, to drop coverage.

When healthy policyholders drop coverage, it leaves the insurer with little choice but to raise premiums again because they now have a risk pool that is less healthy than before. But another premium increase means many of the healthy people who remained now drop their policies, too, and this continues until the only people willing to pay the now-very-high premiums are those with serious medical conditions.

The death spiral isn’t just a theory. Eight states learned this the hard way in the 1990s when they enacted two policies known as “community rating” and “guaranteed issue,” requiring health insurers to sell coverage to anyone who wanted it at the same price.

This quickly set off a death spiral because people knew they could wait until they were sick or injured to buy insurance, and premiums rose sky-high as healthy people exited the individual insurance market while the sick remained.

New Jersey enacted both community rating and guaranteed issue in 1992. By 2003, the lowest monthly premium for a family policy in the state was $3,810 and nearly 40 percent of the people in the individual market had dropped their coverage.

Obamacare includes both community rating and guaranteed issue. The hope of the politicians who passed Obamacare was the individual mandate would keep the relatively healthy from dropping insurance coverage, thereby avoiding a death spiral.

During oral arguments in King, Justices Anthony Kennedy and Ruth Bader Ginsburg expressed concerns that not allowing subsidies in the 37 states using the federally established exchange would set off a death spiral in those states. Their fear was that while subsidies would no longer be available, and there would effectively be no individual mandate, community rating and guaranteed issue would remain.

Many commentators saw Justice Kennedy’s comments as a signal he isn’t willing to stop subsidies on federal exchanges, either because of the serious consequences of doing so or because surely Congress could not have intended to put states in the position of choosing between creating an Obamacare exchange or seeing health insurance markets destroyed.

What Justice Kennedy and many others may not understand, however, is the death spiral is probably already underway in all 50 states, regardless of how the Supreme Court rules in this case.

According to the Manhattan Institute, premiums climbed by 41 percent on average from 2013 to 2014, and premiums are likely to rise sharply again after two insurance company bailout programs included in Obamacare expire in 2017.

The other sign health insurance markets are in the early stages of a death spiral is the age mix of those buying policies through Obamacare. Originally it was estimated that around 40 percent of enrollees had to be in the relatively healthy 18 to 34-year-old age segment, so their premiums could be used to pay for the health expenses of older, less-healthy enrollees. So far it appears only some 28 percent of enrollees are in that coveted age group, which also comprises around half of the uninsured.

All of this means insurers are getting a risk pool that is less healthy than expected, and more premium hikes are around the corner. While subsidies hide some from the full impact, others in the middle class will not be shielded.

It will undoubtedly take a few years to know for sure, but for anybody concerned about setting off a death spiral or thinking Congress surely didn’t intend to do so, don’t worry. It looks like it’s already here, whether Congress intended it or not.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/26/susan-parnell-the-obamacare-death-spiral-may-have-/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2015 at 10:49pm
One by one the Fundamental Transformation is turning out to be Fundamentally Flawed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2015 at 10:15am

my coverage got better

monthly premium did not increase

although I have to pay an extra $5 when I go to my  doctor

the  ONLY people I know who are paying more

are those that had JUNK insurance policies in the first place

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2015 at 12:12pm
 I have always had great insurance now we have to pay 12,000 a year out of pocket a year for the two of us, never had that before obama care.  The people who couldn't 
afford insurance now get to pay tax, or fine, on something they don't have because they 
still can't afford the insurance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2015 at 7:34pm
I'm not sure how this all plays out as far as I personally go. I've never had medical insurance yet in my life- private or public. It's cost me out of pocket no more than a few thousand dollars yet I have saved maybe 100...200k. When I get sick I just burn candles. Joking. I just don't like the guy because he usually stands against everything well established by smart people. I would of voted for Condi for sure if she had run. Remember why she is a Republican?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2015 at 7:55pm

the more we pay

the less we get


U.S. Pays Most for Healthcare of Any Industrialized Nation … But Ranks Worst for Healthcare


http://www.blacklistednews.com/U.S._Pays_Most_for_Healthcare_of_Any_Industrialized_Nation_…_But_Ranks_Worst_for_Healthcare/42999/0/38/38/Y/M.html


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2015 at 7:26pm
Lest we get too nostalgic about the good old days, before the Affordable Healthcare Act became law I seem to remember that an accountant could take a rubber stamp and put you in the position of having to watch a loved one die from a curable condition without any legal consequences - simply because their plan didn't cover the necessary treatment. Oh yeah, that wasn't a system that needed fixing.
Personally I'd have much preferred a single payer system, and I'll be the first to admit that the law as it stands is anything but perfect, but it required input from everyone to get it where it needed to be (ie, making affordable access to a doctor a right for everyone rather than a privilege) and the GOP refused to make any meaningful contribution other than to try to completely block it or spend countless millions trying to repeal it. Politicians who themselves have government funded healthcare knowingly chose to put the insurance companies interests before the welfare of the people that elected them on principal, and I find that reprehensible.


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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2015 at 3:04am
Seen from this side of the pond, where we have the "National Health Service", (which, though deeply flawed, is passionately loved) Obamacare looked like a big step in the right direction, at least at first.  

America is a far better place to live than here in so many, many ways.  But, to us, it is let down by its lack of an NHS and the use of a death penalty.  Both seem barbaric to us.  Life is priceless.  We cheered when Obamacare got through, we were watching on TV to see how it went.

Now, looking back,  I am not so sure.  That you need a system like we have over here, where medical care is free at the point of need, and people only have private health insurance to insure private rooms, televisions, room service and a degree of queue jumping for the non life threatening, is, in my opinion, certain.  But, this may not be the best way to have attempted to achieve it.  

You do need to change the system RADICALLY.  I understand that money drives the research, but people MUST come first.  America is a rich, civilized, free, democratic, forward thinking, western country.  How come there is a better healthcare system in Cuba?  Shame on you!  Sadly, I think I was wrong and Obamacare was not the giant leap forward we thought it was, just a painful shuffle around in ever decreasing circles.  But, DON'T STOP TRYING, YOUR PEOPLE ARE DYING!  Just try something else instead.  
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WillobyBrat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2015 at 3:41am
I admit, hands in the air, to being a Republican who loves America and who has lost a lot of Brit friends because of the aforementioned.  That notwithstanding, I back Jacksdad on this one, he is almost always the voice of reason and clear thought.  That said, you need a system where those who can afford it pay and those that can't are not left to die.  

Britain, by comparison with the USA, is technically, medically, socially backward by 50 years, is run by over educated, under intelligent, government, which controls a frequently corrupt police force and social services.  We are seriously oppressed and massively overpopulated for our land mass, making us the bottom rung of the ladder containing the 5 eyes.  For the benefit of those who do not know what the 5 eyes are: they are the USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Great Britain, who share intelligence "For your eyes only".  The only serious failing in America is the clinging to the barbaric practice of a death penalty.  

Now, President Obama seems to me to be a kind and sincere man.  But, if you start paying for national health or any other national structure except defense and communication (inc. transport) by taxation, then said taxation develops a mind of its own, spawns QUANGOs NGOs and tax tentacles that would make the Kraken jealous and the population poor and resentful.  We do not need poverty through taxation to trigger massive social unrest.  That is already peeping over the wall, like the wartime Chad, in this country.  In an armed nation like the USA, Australia, New Zealand or Canada, where the police and coercive government systems have not already disarmed and pacified the people, there would be an unimaginable horror loose.  

Go back and think again America.  I know that your kindness and generosity will allow for a system of fair acquittal for all that can be worked out by the Great American People.

My Kiwi upbringing back in the 40s and 50s tends to make me say what I think, before I think sometimes.  That's the way we are in the Antipodes.  I hope I haven't offended anyone.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2015 at 3:46am
Tax for defense, WillobyBrat?  How about defense against the microbe?  It's still defense.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2015 at 5:58am
On the Death Penalty. I love you both. But what do you do when there is a guy who is already in prison for the murders of his grandmother and her caretaker and the California law states that anyone already in prison for murder who then commits yet another murder in prison will receive a mandatory death sentance, and that person goes on and kills again? Give him a website with a following? That was his punishment for murdering my only brother. Maybe with his website he can now sign up for Obamacare. Taking a human life for any reason is abstract gross. I have done nothing but give life as almost all of us have but what is the meaning of justice with this in my face?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2015 at 8:01am
We're going off on kind of a tangent, but I'm wholeheartedly with Techno and WillobyBrat on the issue of the death penalty. Even if we had a perfect legal system, I would still balk at the concept of the State taking a life to show how wrong it is to take a life. Too many people on death row are exonerated after years or decades for us to have that much faith in a capital system. Convicting and executing innocents on the basis of flawed evidence to make sure you take out the bad guys is not something a first world country should do.
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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2015 at 10:44am
I can't think that anything I say could help OneFlu.  I am truly sorry to hear your tale.  

I still do not think that there is any reason to take another life, except revenge, which you have every right to desire, but the government has not.   In your shoes, I would want the same, with every single ounce of my being.  I would campaign for it, scheme for it and pray for it!  That would make me human and understandable, but not in the right.  When it comes to the government, their job is to protect society and to foster a good one, not to give in to the grieving whose pain, understandably, reduces their desire for fairness - it would bl**dy disintegrate mine!

I do however believe that life means life and that, if someone kills within prison, then they forfeit their priviliges in favour of safety.  If they are then unable to cope with the solitary confinement when unsupervised, they have the right to suicide.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WillobyBrat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2015 at 10:56am
Onefluover, I understand completely what you are saying.  My nephew, my sister's only son, was beaten to the ground by an attacker who then stamped on his head until his brain burst through his skull.  I harbour the strong desire to avenge my nephew and my sister.  But I am afraid I agree with Technophobe, in spite of the fact that she is a little bit too liberal sometimes.

My Nephew, Glenn, was a very gentle soul.  He would do anything for anyone and his killer was staying at Glenn's house because he had nowhere else to go and Glenn had taken pity on him.  Glenn never even fought back.

My Nephew's attacker got eight years inside, he will be out after just 6 with good behaviour.  I believe that to be wrong and that he should spend his entire life in prison.  If I had been there at the time it would not have happened.  Perhaps that enhances my desire for revenge.  It is a good thing that I will not be in a position to exact said revenge.  however, our country UK is far too soft on people who commit murder, rape and other such agressive crimes.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WillobyBrat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2015 at 11:09am
Jacksdad, As usual you cut right to the nub of the problem.  I believe it was the last eight, if my memory serves me right, of the last people we hung turned out to be innocent.  That was the main reason it was stopped in this country.  The only problem we have with so-called lawful killing is when our police (as they frequently do) shoot someone in a manner that every civilian person believes to have been legalised murder and a so-called enquiry is made into the event: as always the police officer is exhonerated especially if the person killed turns out to be Irish, Brasilian or mentally disabled.  The problems in Fergusson recently are not unique to America.  At least in an armed society you have some hope (admittedly small) of fighting back.  But, I believe that is the reason the constitution of the USA enshrines the right to bear arms so that the people need not be afraid of the government or its agencies.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2015 at 4:41pm


How Obamacare Screwed The Stuges

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...d+Da


if your self employed

or if your income during the year could take a big jump

you NEED to read this


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