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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Hurricane Norbert...

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    Posted: September 01 2008 at 9:12pm
NOAA

Category Two Hurricane


Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory                                   


AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES
...395 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THEN NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...NORBERT
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORBERT WILL THEN MAKE A SECOND
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO ALTHOUGH NORBERT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAJA
PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...21.4 N...113.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.

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FOLLOWING POSTS ARE THIS YEAR'S PREVIOUS HURRICANES

........................................................................................











































































PREVIOUS HURRICANES OF 2008......





future weather
.........................
 
 
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.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025213.shtml?tswind120?large#contents
 
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At the bottom right up there is

Josephine

just coming into view
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote H2HPrep Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 02 2008 at 1:21pm
Hanna and her brothers and sisters.
Maybe the southeast drought is over!
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It rained all summer here in the east, I had to buy an elec power washer to disapear the moss on my deck.  Almost too cold to swim.
 
Hanna not well formed here...
 
 
 
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This is an interesting site on storm surge...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/storm_surge.shtml
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UPDATE

.http://www.srh.weather.gov/mob/productview.shtml?pil=NHCTWDAT&version=0
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
excerpt...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV IS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 93.9W AT
02/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MOVING
N-NW NEAR 7 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 19 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 993 MB. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI AND PORT
ARTHUR TEXAS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS IN THE NRN GULF ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES NORTHWARD AND A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 72.4W AT 03/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SERN
BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU DRIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE HANNA OVER THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TOMORROW. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HANNA IS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE
SW ATLC WATERS FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 65W-77W. HANNA IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 46.3W AT 02/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 895 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IKE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE WEST
IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS
AMPLE OUTFLOW AND A COMPACT...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS.

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 25.9W AT 02/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 105 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 12 KT. THIS GENERAL W-NW MOTION AT ABOUT
THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. A LARGE
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WILL STEER
JOSEPHINE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
OVER THE WARM OPEN WATERS OF THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND JOSEPHINE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 24W-28W WITH OUTER RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
 
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
800 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...HANNA PASSING NEAR THE BAHAMAS...

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTHWESTWARD
TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 760 MILES...1220
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...RAINS AND
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND
HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...24.1 N...73.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST
.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB
 
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check above for more info..
 
 
IKE.... sept. 4, 2008........5am 144 miles per hr....
 
So far a ..........................Catagory 4
%5bTable%20of%20probable%20wind%20speed%20intensity%20range%5d
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Image:2008%2008L%205-day%20track.gif
 
HANNA
 
(downgraded to Tropical Storm)
 
Source- For more complete information
 
 
 
As of 11 p.m. EDT September 4 (0300 UTC September 5), Tropical Storm Hanna is located within 30 nautical miles of 26.5�N 76.3�W, about 50 mi (80 km) east of Great Abaco Island and about 540 mi (870 km) south of Wilmington, North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds are 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 987 mbar (hPa; 29.15 InHg), and the system is moving northwest at 12 kt (14 mph, 22 km/h).

Hanna is a large storm; tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 315 mi (510 km) from the center of Hanna.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 to 75 mm) are expected in the northern Bahamas and along the U.S. East Coast from Georgia to New England, with isolated amounts to 5 inches (125 mm) possible. Storm surge levels of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 m) are possible to the east of the landfall point on the Carolina coast.

Watches and warnings
...................................................
 
Hurricane watch
 
 
 
 
Tropical storm warning
 
Tropical storm watch
 
  • United States: the Georgia coast from Altamaha Sound, GA northward to the mouth of the Savannah River
  • United States: the Mid-Atlantic coast from the North Carolina-Virginia border northward to Great Egg Inlet, NJ including Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac and Delaware Bay
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2008 at 8:30pm
    Image:2008%2009L%205-day%20track.gif
    NOAA.GOV
    5-day track    Category 4 hurricane
     
     
    HURRICANE IKE
     

    As of 11 p.m. AST September 4 (0300 UTC September 5), Hurricane Ike is located within 15 nautical miles of 23.6°N 59.5°W, about 475 mi (760 km) north-northeast of the Leeward Islands and about 755 mi (1215 km) east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 115 knots (135 mph, 215 km/h),

     
    with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 InHg), and the system is moving west at 12 kt (14 mph, 22 km/h).

    Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 35 mi (55 km) from the center of Ike, and tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 115 mi (185 km) from the center of Ike.

     Source- For More Complete Information
     
     
     
     
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    Tropical Storm Hanna
     
    Winds 70 mi per hr
     

    Tropical Storm Hanna is close to a Category 1 hurricane status. It is spinning just east of the central Florida coast producing squalls of heavy rain, tropical storm-force gusts, and the occasional tornado from Florida to North Carolina.

    Category 3 Hurricane Ike needs to be monitored closely though in the Bahamas to southern Florida for possible impacts Sunday Night into Tuesday.

    Josephine, a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic remains a fairly weak tropical storm and is no threat to land.

     
     
    Hurricane Ike
    Category 3 hurricane 
     
    The show of possible strengthening did not last long. By the morning of September 5, northerly wind shear began to erode the northern part of the system and the cloud tops around the eye began to warm once more.
     
    The structure of the eye became less prominent by a microwave satellite showed that the inner structure of Ike was not deteriorating or beginning to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle.[23] A later pass made by the satellite found that the northern eye wall had eroded and most of the convection was in the southern semi-circle of the storm. This indicated that Ike was continuing to weaken as it remained in a hostile environment.[
     
     

    As of 11 a.m. AST (1500 UTC) September 5, Hurricane Ike is located within 15 nautical miles of 23.2°N 62.7°W, about 425 mi (685 km) north of the Leeward Islands and about 550 mi (885 km) east-northeast of the Grand Turk Island. Maximum sustained winds are 105 knots (120 mph, 195 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 954 mbar (hPa; 28.17 InHg), and the system is moving west at 14 kt (16 mph, 26 km/h).

    Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 35 mi (55 km) from the center of Ike, and tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 105 mi (165 km) from the center.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ike

     

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    %5bImage%20of%205-day%20forecast%20of%20predicted%20track,%20and%20coastal%20areas%20under%20a%20warning%20or%20a%20watch%5d
    Noaa
     
     
    IKE
    was Category 2 hurricane, now category 4
     
     
    YOU WILL LIKE THIS SITE...
     
    The map is interactive...click all over it and see what it offers.
     
     
     
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    Tropical storm Josephine has dissipated.
     
    On September 5, the combination of wind shear, dry air, and cooling waters caused Josephine to weaken into a tropical depression. Josephine deteriorated into a remnant low the next morning as it continued to dissipate over the open waters of the eastern Atlantic.
     
     
    source-
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    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

     
    800 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH
    NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES
    EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE...LOCATED ABOUT 855 MILES WEST OF THE
    CAPER VERDE ISLANDS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
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     Image:Hurricane%20Ike%20RGBimage.jpg
    HURRICANE IKE NOW A CATEGORY 4
     
     
    Current storm information

    As of 5 p.m. AST (2100 UTC)
     
     
    September 6,
     
    Hurricane Ike is located within 15 nautical miles of 21.4°N 69.7°W, about 90 mi (145 km) east of Grand Turk Island.
     
    Maximum sustained winds are 115 knots (135 mph, 215 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 949 mbar (hPa; 28.03 InHg), and the system is moving west-southwest at 13 kt (15 mph, 24 km/h).
     
    Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 45 mi (75 km) from the center of Ike, and tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 140 mi (220 km) from the center.
     
    Storm surge levels of 13 to 18 feet (3.9 to 5.5 m) are expected in the warning areas north of Ike. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated amounts up to 12 inches (300 mm), are expected in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.
     
    Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), are expected in eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, with isolated peak amounts as high as 20 inches (500 mm) possible.
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    HURRICANE IKE

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/vis-l.jpg

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