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'Hothouse Earth' risks even if CO₂ emissions sla

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    Posted: August 19 2018 at 2:44pm
Indonesia’s capital sinking by up to 15cm a year, new research shows
IT’S home to 10 million people, but one of Asia’s biggest cities is disappearing — and it could be wiped off the map in 30 years.

Ben Graham
news.com.auAUGUST 19, 20184:58PM
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IT’S one of the most densely populated cities in the world and home to more than 10 million people, but one of Asia’s biggest cities could be virtually wiped off the map in 30 years.

That’s because Jakarta — Indonesia’s sprawling capital — is one of the fastest-sinking cities in the world, meaning large swathes of it could almost be entirely submerged by 2050.

It’s a grim new prediction from experts at Bandung Institute of Technology (BIT), who say about 95 per cent of North Jakarta will be underwater in the next 32 years — forcing its 1.8 million residents to flee their homes.

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The megacity sits on a swampy plain that has sunk more than 4m over the past three decades and it is so low that seven of the city’s sewage-choked rivers actually have to flow uphill to reach Jakarta Bay.

It is now so bad that the BIT estimates the city is sinking by an average of 1-15cm a year and almost half the city now sits below sea level.

The situation is particularly dire in North Jakarta, a port city which has sunk 2.5m in 10 years and continues to sink by as much as 25cm a year in some parts — that’s more than double the global average for coastal megacities.

Jakarta is sinking faster than any other megacity. Picture: Getty Images
Jakarta is sinking faster than any other megacity. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

One of the municipality’s residents Fortuna Sophia said, at first glance, she can’t tell her luxurious villa with a sea view is sinking.

However, she’s lived there for four years and it has already flooded several times. Ominous cracks have also begun to appear on her home’s walls and pillars every six months.


“We just have to keep fixing it,” she told the BBC. “The maintenance men say the cracks are caused by the shifting of the ground.

“The seawater flows in and covers the swimming pool entirely. We have to move all our furniture up to the first floor.”

Jakarta is located on the west of the island of Java. Picture: Google Maps
Jakarta is located on the west of the island of Java. Picture: Google MapsSource:Supplied

If vast sections of Jakarta — which generates more than 20 per cent of Indonesia’s gross domestic product — were to be submerged, it would create an economic nightmare for the country’s 261 million people.

Robert Sianipar, a former top official from the co-ordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, told Reuters the impact of North Jakarta disappearing would be unthinkable.

“If we abandon North Jakarta, that would cost $220 billion in assets — not to count the number of people and productivity that would have to be replaced,” he said.

BIT lead researcher Heri Andreas said the sinking is partly down to the city’s unreliable piped water. Most areas suffer problems with availability of piped water, leaving residents with no choice but to pump water from aquifers deep underground.

However, when this groundwater is pumped up, the land above sinks and subsides.

“The walkways are like waves, curving up and down. People can trip and fall,” Ridwan of Muara Baru, who lives in one of the worst affected areas, told ASEAN Economist.

Flooding is becoming increasingly frequent in Jakarta. Picture: AP Photo/Achmad Ibrahim
Flooding is becoming increasingly frequent in Jakarta. Picture: AP Photo/Achmad IbrahimSource:AP

About three-quarters of residents rely on groundwater.

Reuters reports many of them are refusing to connect to the piped water distribution system because it is more expensive, is not always available and sometimes looks dirty coming out of the tap.

Experts say the only way to stop the city going underwater is to stop all groundwater extraction and solely rely on other sources of water, such as rain or river water or piped water from man-made reservoirs.

It all has serious repercussions for the city’s residents who have already seen increased flooding in recent years and this is predicted to worsen as climate change causes sea levels to rise.

Recorded floods and severe storms in South-East Asia have risen sixfold, from fewer than 20 from 1960 to 1969 up to nearly 120 from 2000 to 2008, according to an Asian Development Bank study.

In February, more than 6500 residents in low-lying areas in Jakarta were evacuated to shelters following torrential rains which caused widespread floods across the Indonesian capital and landslides in satellite cities. They were among more than 11,000 people who were affected by the floods, officials said.


However, it was a devastating mega-storm in February 2007 which opened the Indonesian Government’s eyes and forced it into action.

A strong monsoon storm coincided with a high tide and overwhelmed ramshackle coastal defences, pushing a wall of water from Jakarta Bay into the capital.

It was the first time a storm surge from the sea had flooded the city. Nearly half of Jakarta was covered by as much as 4m of muddy water.

At least 76 people were killed and 590,000 were left homeless. The cost of the damage reached $544 million.

However, none of this has deterred the property developers. More and more luxury apartments have populated the North Jakarta skyline regardless of the risks — meaning new residents are increasingly moving into the sinking area.

Indonesia’s Association of Housing Development chief Eddy Ganefo told the BBC he had called for an end to development but “so long as we can sell apartments, development will continue”.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2018 at 1:37am
Deep Thinker, with all respect-I do think you may be correct at some points (the way average global temperatures are taken at ground stations) but you may be ignoring the essentials. (temperatures, etc. are measured by satellites, CO2 and other green house gasses going up).

There are some basic steps consumers should take (since most governments are failing-Trump at least is not telling lies that he is taking climate change serious. Canada, Germany are building pipelines for fossil fuels, India and China need all the energy they can get (including from North Korea (coal) and Iran). Eating less meat, using less fossil fuels, would make a big difference.

In my opinion there is every reason to be very alarmed. Nothing wrong with "alarmists" maybe those who claim there is not a problem are a bigger problem.

There are several people on the internet busy on climate change. Paul Beckwith is putting a lot of info on You Tube. Robert Scribler (in some opinions more moderate) is also very busy; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXPrRy_QYso

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05wQ9nG0IXY and https://www.jasonbox.net/news/ Dr. Jason Box is another source of info-going to the Arctic to see what is happening.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 11 2018 at 11:31pm
It is the speed of change which carries the biggest risks,

As sea levels rise and equatorial regions desertify, vast areas become habitable too (Siberia, Antartica,Greenland). But they lack the trapings of civilization we are all used to (roads, houses, resevoirs, sewers, hospitals, factories etc.). Constructing that lot in a hurry is an impossibly big ask. Where do you house the builders? How do you feed them? All of that is before we consider the political barriers to moving in.

The wild world also adapts, but needs time or assistance to do so.

The rising sea level problem also has solutions - polders. But they should be built now as construction is easier whilst the areas are still dry.

The world and the human race will both survive. I am certain of that. Civilization as we know it - no chance! Physics is quite clear about where we are headed. The early carboniferous period had a warm/humid climate and all the carbon we are busy releasing once more. As the carbon was originally deposited the world cooled. We have simply reversed the trend.

You could even argue that "Gaia" is using us to warm up and avoid those bloody cold ice ages! Not that she needs us much after the job is done.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 11 2018 at 11:02pm
https://paulbeckwith.net/2018/08/12/earth-climate-system-terrible-trajectories-to-hothouse/

DJ-Paul Beckwith on YouTube discussing another climate change study. In my (and his) opinion this study may be very optimistic. Recent Arctic Earthquakes may indicate a far worse escalation-massive methane release.

The global heatwave/extreme weather is effecting foodproduction and distribution. Famine is on its way for several countries. The Totten glacier (a.o.) in East Antarctica may be moving-same amount of ice as Greenland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dpEHWY0mRw:
Ten years ago Timothy Lenton spearheaded a scientific paper examining expert assessments on the types and likelihoods of Tipping Elements in the Climate System. A number of top European climate scientists published an update a few days ago, to get a handle on the risk of cascading climate feedbacks propelling the Earth into a hothouse state. They suggest that we are on that path now, and have a decade or two to avoid the worst. I fear that we have already gone over that cliff, and I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 11 2018 at 5:31pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2018 at 3:55am
just check out what other cites are on the same latitude as Beijing,

alot of people going to have to move ,

away from the north and south 43 parallel ,

the equator will be burnt to a crisp................
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2018 at 3:33am
Ps. Your point about the weather stations is valid, logical and appropriate.

I don't think there is much heat island effect in the Arctic or Antartic though. That is where the biggest rises are. More importantly, around there are the permafrost lands where the methane hydrates are stored. Sorry, were stored. As the permafrost melts, the methane is released. That is 30 X as warming as CO2. SCARY!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2018 at 3:21am
I have a solution which still allows us to progress technologically --- birth control. Once upon a time our life expectancy was around 35. Most of that difference was childhood mortality and death for the mother during the process. Then there were all the bacterial diseases we now have antibiotics for. People had loads of children because they had no choice. More died than survived.

Returning to any of that horror is a bad idea!

Now we live into our 70s as a rule; some live far longer and the vast majority of our children survive. But our society is still in the stone age. Most of our polutants would do no harm if we simply used less. Even plastics rot eventually - it takes thousands of years but it happens.

Our entire course of life is changed from that of our ancestors. Yet we still breed like rabbits. Why shouldn't we if bunnies can? Well a rabbit in the wild has a life expectancy of about 6 months. A few live longer but most don't make it to adulthood.

So why not change our ways? We learned not to club each other when annoyed - mostly. We learned not to rape - usually. We learned not to steal - for the most part. Civilization progressed - although we needed laws to control us; Thank You Hammurabi! But we still can't master this one. STUPID CAVEMEN!!! We do not seem to be able to take that last step. Well, we are getting what we earned.

We are not the owners of the planet. We are its custodians. We are making a rubbish heap of our only truly worthwhile asset. We should be asshamed, but instead we continue unabated. Well, Earth itself will either die entirely, or wipe us out. That is what you do with cancer - the only part of the body which breeds without control.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2018 at 2:33am
The planet belongs to all it's inhabitants,it wasn't put here as our playground,and yes we are a part of it, but we are to successful,and we are damaging it to a point where huge swathes will become uninhabitable,

What happens when, in another thread a report said 400million Chinese people will have to move from Beijing ( latitude 39.9042° N, 116.4074° E)to where ? And that figure is only a drop in the ocean of humanity that will be forced to move or die,

Billions of people will be forced to move,

I can see all the USA (that's only 360million) moving to the extreme south, of south America away from the heat ,can you see that happening ,because the Chinese are already planning for it.....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 10 2018 at 12:28am
Very interesting web site to check out:http://www.surfacestations.org/

These people have been auditing our weather stations and the results are a bit alarming IMO.   Two things have been going on... the heat island effect is intensifying, and the placement of most of our weather stations is very poor. You guys are talking about 1c of warming and I see these weather stations and all the variations and just pure noise in the data, please forgive me if I am skeptical.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 11:52pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

the main causes as i see it are Us , the human race,

wether it be ,Farming ,Deforestation ,Mining ,Cars on the road ,or Planes ,Ships,

the main cause is our activity on the planet,

...

the only species on the planet doing this is Us humans,

But:what is the answer,

maybe we have to admit there's a problem then we can do something about it......




I think I have a fundamentally different view as to who and what man is and our role on the planet as to many people here. What I hear is that nature and the natural order is good, humanity not so much.   It is almost as if we are an accident on the planet. We belong here.   The earth is ours to enjoy and use.   We are part of nature not separate from it.

The only solutions I hear our ones that would take us back to a pre- industrial type civilization.   Any legit solutions need to further technological progress.   Is it really worth it to have a slightly cooler planet if we are also living in a very primitive society?

"Humans are the problem" I see this thinking all over this site. I think it is downright evil. I keep hearing "the world would be a better if half of us would be killed off" how can you say that?   It is like admitting defeat. What a horrible world that would be... I would never want to see that day. New technology and innovation are the answer not mass genocide.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 3:29pm
Originally posted by DeepThinker DeepThinker wrote:

Techmophobe my point was much simpler than that...   I was just arguing that what ever they are claiming as global warming can be explained by us coming out of the min ice age.   The glaciers started to retreat 150 years before industrial greenhouse production ever became a problem.



I also agree with this. Earth is still climbing out of the last major glaciation and Ice Age. The Pleistocene Epoch is typically defined as the time period that began about 2.6 million years ago and lasted until about 11,700 years ago, and 11,700 years in planetary terms is "yesterday."

However, the physics still holds true. We are barfing carbon products (carbon dioxide, methane, CFCs and others) into the atmosphere at an alarming rate! 9.795 gigatons per year. Sad.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 3:16pm
the main causes as i see it are Us , the human race,

wether it be ,Farming ,Deforestation ,Mining ,Cars on the road ,or Planes ,Ships,

the main cause is our activity on the planet,

yes there are natural causes ,

we are entering a cooling period now as the earth moves away from the sun ,this happens every 11 years ,

and yes the climate has been in a very calm Period over the last 10,000 years or so,

however ,i still maintain that pumping vast amounts of Stored CO2 and other gases into an enclosed space ,IE our atmosphere ,that has no place to go and at the same time clearing vast areas of the best co2 filters ever ,you are in trouble,

the only species on the planet doing this is Us humans,

But:what is the answer,

maybe we have to admit there's a problem then we can do something about it......


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 12:15pm
I could not agree more about the farming practices.

Deforestation causes desertification and exacerbates warming. In fact, most of our high-yield farming practices accumulate a planetary cost.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 11:25am
None are alarmists that I know of. That is the thing with scientists, they go on facts and so alarmism has no place in science. As to being alarmed: most of them are, although not for us, but for our children and grandchildren. A few have been alarmed for some time. Hubby spoke to one in a complete panic 11 or 12 years ago (he was in the arctic on a research trip - tyhe scientist, not Hubby).

The modern warm period has also not peaked. Locally, different countries have seen peaks come and go, but overall the trend is clearly upward even if you exclude the poles from the data. Include the poles and the trend is not only up, but accelerating; it even appears exponential (which is actually impossible, but that is how it appears on graphs).

Distortions of these figures appear all across the web. Genuine alarmists would have you believe the end result would turn Earth into another Venus (which is extreemly improbable) exterminating all life. Those with a vested interest in fossil fuels point to local cooling (a product of the weakening jet stream, which is being diminished by the increasing polar temperatures) as "proof" there is no warming. Both are almost certainly very wrong and should be ashamed of themselves for obscuring the genuine facts, which are alarming enough!

To avoid these despicable benders-of-the-truth, the best approach is to stick to the known and trusted sites, like NOAAH. If you do read something from another source, find out who funds them before you swallow the results/conclusions.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 10:57am
If you want to talk about human caused climate change... you have to look at deforestation and desertification of the planet. We need to bring back the large herds of grazing animals that our grass lands desperately need to survive. We also need to look at our agricultural practices.   We need to farm in ways that builds and develops the land, not usury and exploitation we so often see. We also need to manage our forests much better and in more natural ways.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 10:22am
So 98% of Scientists believe in global warming? I would argue that only a tiny percentage of them are alarmists.   Probably only about 2% however they are the only ones who get any press.

"The results are in".   The modern warm period seems like it peaked in 1998.   There is some evidence that the 1930s were warmer. The medieval warm period was probably warmer still and the post glacial optimum was probably even warmer still.   I know it is just a tiny sample size but the earth has seen a dramatic unprecedented cooling episode over the last couple years wiping out half of all global warming. While it could be a statistical anomaly... it is quite interesting that it lines up perfectly with the solar cycle changing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 2:29am
You are right that climate change is not all us, DT.  I was something of a skeptic myself until a couple of years ago.  There is a natural cycle involved as well.  That is why there was also warming on Mars.  But Mars is back to normal and we are not.  By comparison, Earth's temperatures are rising faster.

Tiny ampunts of gas can wreak huge amounts of atmospheric damage.  Just look at the CFC/ozone hole of a few years ago.  Carbon dioxide levels have doubled in recent decades.  Atmospheric CO2 is measured in parts per million and yet CFCs are measured in parts per billion because the quantities are so small.  There was probably even a slight warming from early human's campfires.  Deforestation is also a warmer of climate.  There is even a correlation between the drop in human numbers from the black death and the mini ice age in early Victorian times when the trees we did not cut down reached maturity.  Then the use of coal balanced out the reforrestation and temperatures began to rise again.

For decades the climate science was open for debate.  When dealing with the complex, scientists without an agenda can take a very long time to gather enough data to be certain of anything.  That meant those who were paid to deny man's influence in climate change spoke with apparent certainty and those who were unafiliated procrastinated.  Not any more.  Enough results are in.  There is a natural cycle.  It is on the backswing now and we should be getting colder again like Mars!  We are the reason it is not.  90+% of scientists agree we are now the main cause.  Some sources put that figure at 98%, but like the scientists, I want more proof before quoting that.

'And the other 2+% of scientists?  They mostly work for fossil fuel exploiting companies.  They are smart people; they know which side their bread is buttered.  Obviously there are a few nutcases on the fringe who deny the figures, but then again, some people still think the world is flat.

Scepticism is part of scientific thinking, and laudable.  Sadly now the results are in.  Not only are we the main cause, but it may now be too late to stop this snowball rolling melting.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 1:06am
Techmophobe my point was much simpler than that...   I was just arguing that what ever they are claiming as global warming can be explained by us coming out of the min ice age.   The glaciers started to retreat 150 years before industrial greenhouse production ever became a problem.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2018 at 1:02am
I feel I should clarify myself a bit...   Climate change IS real.    However I am very skeptical as to CO2's influence.    I am also not sure  that we are still in a warming phase.   Yes for 40 years or so we  have been in a warming period, AND the last 300 years have seen a warming planet.  So since most of the data we use has only been collected in the last 300 years of course global warming appears real.

The climate we have experienced in our life's is very unique by long term standards.   The last few hundred years have been the most stable couple hundred years the planet has seen in a LONG LONG time.  Also the last 10,000 years have been warmer and more stable for longer than any time on our planet for several hundred thousand years.  We are actually in the middle of an ice age but for some reason we live in this wonderful temperate window.  The world has been much warmer than today and much colder.   CO2 levels have been much higher and much lower today with no human influence.

The Equinox is precessing   The Sun is going quiet.  We are overdue for the next glacial period.   What I think we are seeing in the climate today is akin to what you see in financial markets.  At the end of bull markets you get a huge parabolic blow up just before it crashes.   That is what we are seeing in the climate today.   Things are erratic and unstable and we are getting one last blast of heat before it goes cold.

Lastly I want to mention that I don't like most of the articles such as this on global warming.   It is hysterical bull*****.    Too many times I have seen some study that says we are doomed... then latter other researchers find that they greatly overstated things.    It ALWAYS happens.    For example 10 years ago they where talking about 10s of feet of sea level rise... now most reputable scientists would only claim a tiny amount of it.    Also what is the point of writing this article , if we are doomed anyways? Just let us live out our days in peaceful ignorance.
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