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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

Staging and Levels of Service Degradation

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corky52 View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 21 2006 at 7:50pm

I see many who need to think about how this is going to happen and what to do at various stages in to a Avian Flu Pandemic. 

This isn't going to be like a hurricane or a quake with a point of happening and then recovery, a pandemic will be an ongoing event and things that happen can to some degree be predicted.  You're not going to wakeup the second day in to the event and not have water, power or gas, certain things will happen first  allowing you to run stages of your preparedness.   As a for instance, I for see the food in my freezer as the primarily used rations for the first two weeks to a month as I think power will hold up at least that long.  As supplies of fuel get short we'll see rolling blackouts before we lose power completely, water service will become sporadic giving you warning to fill your stores.  Thinking of a pandemic as a point event rather than a series of events will cause you much greater hardships than needed, might even kill you.  Planing to stage in supplies and measures will extend the length of time each will last.  An Avian Flu pandemic is going to be a long running catastrophe in ssllloooowww motion and needs to be planned for as such.

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TNbebo408 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TNbebo408 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2006 at 8:03pm
One of the BEST POSTS I have read. And I agree, I don't stock flour, meal and stuff with short shelf life. I figure i will have time to get it, when the rest of the world is fighting over bread, milk and instant cocoa.
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corky52 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote corky52 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2006 at 8:26pm
I'm currently working out what I think a time line will look like, with cutouts for various levels of severity and panic.  I've suggested to others to write a diary of what they think things will go like and then work from that.  Panic and international quarantine will be here several days to several weeks before the Avian Flu, working through that will be the first challenge.  Each area has certain things that have to be taken in to account and worked around, planning and timing are going to be critical.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2006 at 9:58pm
Shelf life of your 'store bought' food stuffs is usually a couple of months to a few years.  The freezer stuff is a couple of months on average.

The problem with pandemic and supplies is the risk exposure of restocking.  Not just your risk - but everybody, from the delivery guy driving the freight truck, to the store clerk who restocks the shelves.  When you walk into a store, you're exposing yourself to all the other people that have entered that 'contained environment', some who have come from thousands of miles away.

I had to laugh when I read 'avoid breathing air that has been breathed by other persons'.  How are you going to do that?  The reality is - you won't.  Not unless you stay far, far away from everyone else.

Which poses serious problems for restocking your pantry.  You won't be able to do this under any conditions and not risk exposure.  The rolling effects of pandemic can come in three waves, lasting longer then a year.  Reducing your exposure to potentially infected other people and places dictates that you stock up in advance.

I'm sure people will be fighting over supplies, starvation is no fun.  But neither is getting sick and exposing your family.  People should stay home, but this won't be possible unless they plan ahead.

You won't have time to get supplies either once pandemic hits.  The stores will be stripped bare of consumable food stuffs in a matter of hours.  This happens during every disaster.  The United States hasn't experienced pandemic for over a hundred years.  The fear factor is building and you just watch - if pandemic hits, it's going to mass panic and pandamonium.

If you haven't gotten your supplies in, you're risking a great deal. 

Stock up, stay home, stay put, these are the three most important things you can do to stop the pandemic and live.
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Marjo View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Marjo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 3:32am
Originally posted by SurvivalAcres SurvivalAcres wrote:



You won't have time to get supplies either once pandemic hits.  The stores will be stripped bare of consumable food stuffs in a matter of hours. 



I agree with you SurvivalAcres,

I think when the virus goes H2H it might - and will-  go very fast.
Remember SARS? It was around the globe before most people understood what was going on....

With the predicted incubation time of H5N1 it could be at your doorstep before the first victims show symptoms 

So, get ready now, don't procastinate!
IF it is possible I will expand my stash at the last moment too, sure.

But I agree that shops will be cleared of food and water in no time....
And with our 24/7-economy at this moment the shops have to be restocked every day. Who is going to do that when people stay at home en masse?
So stock up now, don't wait until the last moment!

Marjo

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corky52 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote corky52 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 5:06am
Again it's not stocking up, it's staging your use and how things will wind down.  Having to dig in to long term storage because that's all you have isn't making best use of your resources.  Buying a small freezer and figuring to live out of it for the first couple of weeks by keeping your regular food just in larger quantities there means you have better food for longer.  The point I'm trying to make is that just because the Avian Flu is announced and you decide to bug in, the rest of the world won't immediately shut down.  Planning how to react in the wind down is important, if the world is buying survival food and leaving the steaks because of panic, buy the steaks and use them first.  Put a few steaks in the freezer and eat them till the power goes.  Most stuff will take time to start dropping off, stay in and comfortable using the perishables first.
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Marjo View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Marjo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 5:22am

Oh ok, I see what you mean.

: I have 6 freezers and they are stuffed with vegetables, meat, dough, fruit , juices and the works LOL


You're right: don't dig into your 'emergency stash' the minute H2H happens:
eat the fresh stuff first or you'll have to throw it away


Marjo

(sorry if I interpret things wrong, english is not my primary language!)
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corky52 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote corky52 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 6:05am
Now we see eye to eye.  I have water bladders, I'll fill them when the situation calls for it, until then they take up little room rolled up.  I can store 300 gallons but right now I have better uses for the space, so they stay rolled up and use little space.

Edited by corky52
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Marjo View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Marjo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 6:30am


Sounds familiar.....

Marjo
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halogen601 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote halogen601 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 8:13am
Well thought out process Corky and nice reality check to consider during a crisis.  I always thought of the power grids going the same way as the California rolling blackouts.  Hopefully, there will be enough sporadic power to keep the deep freezers operating at the necessary minimal level and to keep the mobile phones charged.  I suppose the public water system is also contingent upon the power supply if backup ceases, so maybe there will be opportunities to flush the toilets and use the shower periodically.  I haven't even thought of the repercussions with the public sewer system operating but am glad I live on a hill in the neighborhood.  Your  process on maneuvering of foodstuffs and rationing is well thought out.
There is trouble in the forest.
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Dave View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dave Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 9:24am
Corky's points are very good and well taken.  However, there are certain instances that fall into the "s**t happens" and "Murphy's Law" categories.  The amount of time your power remains intact depends on the infrastructure where you live.  Some will do better than others.  Where I live, a blizzard can wipe power out in an instant, along with a bolt of lightning in the spring and summer.  If one of these events were to happen at the onset of people going into quarantine, then you might as well forget about the power coming back on.  Personally, I don't have high hopes for power to last very long where I live, and those that live in rural areas should evaluate the reliability of their electric infrastructure based on past experiences.  Those of you who live in rural areas know what I'm talking about.  So, plan for the worst and hope for the best. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TNbebo408 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 9:36am
I agree with Corky, this won't be like a nuke event, it will begin in phases. The first will be bread and milk, FLYING off the shelves, when others fighting over it. I plan to walk right by them and load up flour, meal, beans, and other longterm items, things they haven't thought of yet.

Gas will be tough the first few days, then it will level off. Supply may come back due to less travel, and it may not, due to Govt intervention.

If it is a true pandemic, so many will be gone, the level of demand will drop with the population decreases.

I expect some things to disapear after Oprah show, bottled water, water containers, coleman fuels, batteries, things that we all have now. If you on this site, three days should be no problem.

I have said many times, FEAR not the flu will be the worst enemy of us all. I have seen people fight over a loaf of bread and a gallon of milk before a small snow, WATCH THEM, when this hits. They will react about the same, they will grab stuff for three days and head home.

Most of us can sit tight for months, so don't get killed in the first days of this.

The US people live in a three day economy, they won't think farther than this, they are so used to this lifestyle, they won't change in the beginning of it.

People are stupid animals, and most of them now, have few survival skills. I saw people on TV after a blizzard, that couldn't open a can of food, because the electric can opener wouldn't work. They had no clue, to use a knife and take the top off. They let their food ruin, instead of putting snow in the fridge, STUPID.

The national guard had to deliver MREs to this area. And this area was full of people with higher education. This event lasted for days not months.

I am plotting what I think a timeline will look like, based on 3 scenarios. All of them are scary, and only one because of flu, the others are due to reaction by the masses, of SCARED not sick people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bahamut-J Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 1:04pm
Anybody have any links to possible scenarios, best or worste case?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote corky52 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 4:20pm

Dave,

Much of what I posted comes from my thoughts on where I live and are not the final word, just points to think on.  Each of us needs to look at our environment, put with out panic and with as much knowledge as we can muster.  Where I live we live and die on power, weather is most always nice and not a major threat.  Without power we have no water, sewage or gas, but our power should last a while.

My whole point is that thinking is the important part, we shouldn't panic in just a different form.  Many factors are different for each of us, others ideas help but we each need to calmly view what's coming and PLAN, not run in circles!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dave Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 6:20pm

Corky,

I agree 100 percent.  Just trying to ad some insight for those with power that is not so reliable. 

And by all means...my power is not spotty or unrelaible for the most part.  I live in a city of 60,000 but am serverd by a rural electric corporation.  I did lose it for 72 hours during a blizzard in 2000 (trees fell on power lines), but for the most part it is there.  My point is also PLANNING.  I have to plan differently based on past experiences, and I also balance that planning with the effects of mother nature and timing. 

By timing I mean, ice storm, blizzard, lightning strike, wind storm, or forest fire happening within a week of hard core quarentine resulting in no electricity, permanently. 

Chances are it won't happen...but I like to think about...and plan for "what if it did?"  So, even if I look to the skyline and see lights over the rest fo the city, when I have none because of one unlucky lightning strike on my power grid when electric company workers have stopped coming to work...I will be prepared.  I offer my thoughts so that others may consider the same possibility based on their particular situation. 

Aagin...I agree with you 100 percent.  I'm just trying to contribute the best way I can, taking into consideration my past experiences with a rural electric company and not so uncomon acts of mother nature.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote corky52 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2006 at 7:15pm

Dave,

Point of Mother Natures nasties not taking a vacation is also important to factor in to our plans.  Good that we can all share our "What if's", learn new things and find weak points in our plans. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AuntBones Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2006 at 5:03am

If I can fit it in my car plywood this week.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote omega Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2006 at 11:00am
Originally posted by corky52 corky52 wrote:

Again it's not stocking up, it's staging your use and how things will wind down.  Having to dig in to long term storage because that's all you have isn't making best use of your resources.  Buying a small freezer and figuring to live out of it for the first couple of weeks by keeping your regular food just in larger quantities there means you have better food for longer.  The point I'm trying to make is that just because the Avian Flu is announced and you decide to bug in, the rest of the world won't immediately shut down.  Planning how to react in the wind down is important, if the world is buying survival food and leaving the steaks because of panic, buy the steaks and use them first.  Put a few steaks in the freezer and eat them till the power goes.  Most stuff will take time to start dropping off, stay in and comfortable using the perishables first.


I've been thinking of buying a very small freezer, for the convenience of freezing grains/etc before they go into storage; your interesting post is making me feel a bit 'positive' - that MAYBE things like freezers and stoves and lights will WORK for quite some while, so maybe I should get that freezer, and after some basics, in large quantities are safely frozen, then stuff the freezer with my family's fav foods.

Sure would simplify things - but if I get a freezer, I am FIRST getting a generator, and also some batteries/inverters, as I don't want to lose a whole freezer full of frozen food, due to some transient blackout due to summer storms.

Thanks for starting this thread, it's quite interesting and thought provocative.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chuck-91 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2006 at 12:54pm

Good thread Corky!

A very small contribution to think on,If the gas stations all have thousands of gallons of gasoline in the ground and the electricity fails then that gas will stay in the ground because the pumps are electric. This could turn out to be a problem if things do fail in stages, as seems likely.

Those who will not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2006 at 8:36am

One of the things I am personally planning on, is preparing meals inadvance, things like spaghetti, beef stew etc. and storing them in the food saver bags. That way you can just throw them in a pot of hot water. Heck, in hot areas you can just put them where the sun gets to them and you have a meal.

Basically, my idea is not to rely too much on uncooked meats, since it will be impossible to know when the power goes in your particular area.

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