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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

U.S. Flu Season 2017-2018 will it become epidemic?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 8:43am
To track this we will need to watch the current flu strains in the U.S. and as well as the current vaccine to see if there is a problem. Of course, in 2009 when I began tracking Swine Flu before the Pandemic - that time I found data from media in Mexico City going south to the infamous Pig slaughter house - Smithfield Foods in La Gloria, Mexico.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/2009/04/29/patient-zero-in-swine-flu-outbreak-identified-as-5-year-old-mexican-boy.html

I had a direct link to a CNN correspondent which had first entered the hospital in Mexico City where armed guards protected the hospital and I put up the footage on YouTube. That was 8 years ago in April.

Edgar got sick in late March or early April and recovered after a few days.

Local resident Jose Luis Martinez, 34, said he made the connection when he heard a description on the news of the symptoms: fever, coughing, joint aches, severe headache and, in some cases, vomiting and diarrhea.

"When we saw it on the television, we said to ourselves, 'This is what we had,'" Martinez told SkyNews. "It all came from here. The symptoms they are suffering are the same that we had here."

Edgar's case has gained attention because he lives near a large pig farm, fueling suspicion that the outbreak began there. The farm, Granjas Carroll, is a joint venture between Mexican firm Agroindustrias Unidas de Mexico SA and Virginia-based Smithfield Foods Inc.

comment: I had posted on AFT and although at one point many of my posts were lost - I did post of the Pandemic coming - not if, but when. Now those words have stayed with me and as I watched an posted - one of the few on Earth on the last Australian Flu outbreak here and on the net from the time it first started - the same words.

I will continue to track this and if this variant H3N2 has mutated or does mutate - this could become a Pandemic.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 8:46am
It is coming

Not if, but when - maybe next year it will hit the hardest in years.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2017 at 10:08am
Originally posted by Rrrrrrrr Rrrrrrrr wrote:

Local immunologist, my immunity is proved.
Technology of production of medicines against influenza. First you need to infect me with the flu. When I will get out of my blood to take the blood component of immunoglobulin. And the immunoglobulin is artificially copied. So you get the best medicine for the flu
And I advise you not to guess whether this is spam. And go to Almetyevsk and check by yourself


Why is this not in Russian?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 15 2017 at 4:57am
Вы уже опубликовали информацию о своем иммунитете. Это не привело вас к иммунитету. Это не даст вам иммунолога.

Результат не изменится. Продолжайте спрашивать снова и снова. Вы получите тот же ответ каждый раз.

Мы не считаем ваш иммунитет особенным. Мы не будем посылать вам никаких врачей - любого типа.

Если благословенный папа, Мохаммед (благословение на его имя) или бессмертный дали лама поклялся, что вы гуляете чудом, Мы все равно не можем отправить вас никому. Мы не могли отнести вас к кому бы то ни было.

Мы не можем отправить вас никому.
Мы никого не будем посылать.
Мы никого не отправим.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2017 at 8:47am
There is little in the media about the Flu Season in the U.S. which continues to get worse. Neither the CDC or the media is much help in monitoring people who are dying from the flu. Just a few days ago a

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2017/12/04/mom-2-dies-day-after-flu-diagnosis.html

20-year-old - who was very healthy before - died of this current season's flu.

Family members of an Arizona mother who died just one day after being diagnosed with the flu said the 20-year-old was very healthy leading up to her illness, with the exception of suffering from the occasional cold. Alani Murrieta, who leaves behind a 2-year-old and 6-month-old, had started complaining of symptoms on Sunday, Fox 10 reported.

“Monday she was still feeling sick, so her sister took her to urgent care, her and her kids,” Stephanie Gonzales, the woman’s aunt, told Fox 10. “They diagnosed them with the flu, sent her home with flu meds.”


By Tuesday, Murietta was taken to the hospital by her mother where she was diagnosed with pneumonia and her condition continued to deteriorate. She was placed on a ventilator but never recovered.

comment: The media is so obsessed making up their own news they give little attention to a mutating virus which could do us a lot of harm and perhaps span a Pandemic.



The CDC didn't even name the states where the flu is now widespread which are Oklahoma, Louisiana, Georgia, and New York.

H3 168 (90.3%) 1,527 (89.1%)

They are not even posting the h3n2 is the predominant strain 90.3% percent of the cases. It is likely we have a new version of this which is not the vulnerable to the current vaccine.


And so I will start a new term - TLI as opposed to TMI - too little information - far from too much.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2017 at 8:58am
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Вы уже опубликовали информацию о своем иммунитете. Это не привело вас к иммунитету. Это не даст вам иммунолога.

Результат не изменится. Продолжайте спрашивать снова и снова. Вы получите тот же ответ каждый раз.

Мы не считаем ваш иммунитет особенным. Мы не будем посылать вам никаких врачей - любого типа.

Если благословенный папа, Мохаммед (благословение на его имя) или бессмертный дали лама поклялся, что вы гуляете чудом, Мы все равно не можем отправить вас никому. Мы не могли отнести вас к кому бы то ни было.

Мы не можем отправить вас никому.
Мы никого не будем посылать.
Мы никого не отправим.


Translation

You have already published information about your immunity. This did not lead you to immunity. This will not give you an immunologist.

The result will not change. Continue to ask again and again. You will receive the same answer every time.

We do not consider your immunity to be special. We will not send you any doctors - any type.

If the blessed pope, Mohammed (blessing in his name) or the immortal gave the llama sworn that you are walking by a miracle, We still can not send you to anyone. We could not take you to anyone.

We can not send you to anyone.
We will not send anybody.
We will not send anybody.

comment: I have received a private message about this and later the same has been posting in English and what was said to me was in English.  This person needs to take their information to local researchers and see what can be done with it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Yyyyyyyyyyyy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2017 at 11:47am
And I do not need any doctors, my immunity is proved by the local immunologist and . Head of the Department of Public Health of the city of Almetyevsk. I wanted to inform you
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 09 2017 at 11:55am
There has been more than a little increase in the flu in the last week and it went from 4 widespread states to 7.

It is very difficult to determine how bad it is since we still have no real fatality monitoring or more than a handful of labs that are selected to make up the numbers extrapolated and could be off by large numbers.

The geographic spread of influenza in seven states was reported as widespread; Puerto Rico and 18 states reported regional activity; 18 states reported local activity; and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Virgin Islands and seven states reported sporadic activity; and Guam did not report.

It is getting worse and temperatures are plunging as a savage storm hits the east coast and the South.

That is 25 states - half of the U.S. with widespread or regional activity. All states have some flu activity and there is no reason for silence from Guam after it started with being the first area with widespread activity.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 09 2017 at 12:07pm
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/this-years-flu-vaccine-may-only-be-10-effective-experts-warn/

What's more, this year's flu shot may not be up to the task. It is the same formulation that was used during Australia's most recent flu season -- which typically sets a pattern for what the U.S. will face -- and it was only 10 percent effective there.

comment: This is not news to me. I have been documented that the influenza h3n2v strain mutated in Australia and we are making it worse with egg-grown vaccine which actual makes it mutate even more.

There is no reason to believe a vaccine which is not effective is going to increase you immunity or help you fight off the flu.

We have reached a point where flu season has become Christmas season for the vaccine creators which refuse to pull their product when it doesn't work.

Since flu shots can not only make you ill, some even causing the flu, there is nothing to support the illogical claim - it is better than nothing.

I am concerned about further mutation of H3N2 and it could become much more virulent.  We have no safety net - especially in our medical care system or our hospitals.  We are not ready for a Pandemic.

This is going to be a cold winter and with the increasing cold - people's immune systems go downhill and more people get sick.

If flu is not a reportable disease by our physicians, we have no first line actual count of cases based on medical records versus government labs which are notoriously biased and always report less cases than there are.

It is going to get worse.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Yyyyyyyyyyyy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2017 at 11:16pm


December 11, 2017
The CDC reports that about 750,000 people in the United States have contracted the flu. Health officials are worried about the flu because it can lead to pneumonia and other life-threatening illnesses, and it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur.
The CDC reports that about 750,000 people in the United States have contracted the flu. Health officials are worried about the flu because it can lead to pneumonia and other life-threatening illnesses, and it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur. How many people get the flu in any particular year depends in part on the effectiveness of the vaccine. In a good year, people receiving vaccinations are 60% less likely to get sick, but in recent years protection has been worse. Last year it was 42%. In 2014-15 it was 19% effective. "Although this is not perfect, if you have a common disease with significant morbidity and mortality, you prevent many cases," says Richard Zimmerman, flu epidemiologist at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine. The difficulty in developing an effective influenza vaccine is that strains of viruses must be selected in a few months to give manufacturers time to vaccinate. The World Health Organization meets twice a year to decide which strains the vaccines should include. The recommendation for the Southern Hemisphere is in September. The recommendation for the Northern Hemisphere is in February or March. In each case, the spread of the influenza vaccine begins about 7 months later.

Seven states reported widespread influenza activity
This year, experts found nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of influenza.
By Ciara Speller
Published: December 9, 2017, 5:14 am Updated: December 9, 2017, 11:19 AM
   

SPRINGFIELD, Massachusetts (WWLP). The latest numbers of the Center for Disease Control found that the influenza in seven states is widespread, one of which is Massachusetts.

This year, experts found nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of influenza. Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Virginia also suffered. This time last year, no state has reported widespread influenza activity with only 42 confirmed cases.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2017 at 2:11pm
Originally posted by Yyyyyyyyyyyy Yyyyyyyyyyyy wrote:



December 11, 2017
The CDC reports that about 750,000 people in the United States have contracted the flu. Health officials are worried about the flu because it can lead to pneumonia and other life-threatening illnesses, and it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur.
The CDC reports that about 750,000 people in the United States have contracted the flu. Health officials are worried about the flu because it can lead to pneumonia and other life-threatening illnesses, and it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur. How many people get the flu in any particular year depends in part on the effectiveness of the vaccine. In a good year, people receiving vaccinations are 60% less likely to get sick, but in recent years protection has been worse. Last year it was 42%. In 2014-15 it was 19% effective. "Although this is not perfect, if you have a common disease with significant morbidity and mortality, you prevent many cases," says Richard Zimmerman, flu epidemiologist at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine. The difficulty in developing an effective influenza vaccine is that strains of viruses must be selected in a few months to give manufacturers time to vaccinate. The World Health Organization meets twice a year to decide which strains the vaccines should include. The recommendation for the Southern Hemisphere is in September. The recommendation for the Northern Hemisphere is in February or March. In each case, the spread of the influenza vaccine begins about 7 months later.

Seven states reported widespread influenza activity
This year, experts found nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of influenza.
By Ciara Speller
Published: December 9, 2017, 5:14 am Updated: December 9, 2017, 11:19 AM
   

SPRINGFIELD, Massachusetts (WWLP). The latest numbers of the Center for Disease Control found that the influenza in seven states is widespread, one of which is Massachusetts.

This year, experts found nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of influenza. Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Virginia also suffered. This time last year, no state has reported widespread influenza activity with only 42 confirmed cases.



ty Yyyyyy

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2017 at 2:18pm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/summary.htm

The proportion of people seeing their health care provider for influenza-like-illness (ILI) increased sharply from last week and has been at or above the national baseline for three weeks so far this season. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses were most commonly reported during week 49 (the week ending December 9, 2017) and have been the predominant virus so far this season. Several flu activity indicators are higher than is typically seen for this time of year. Twelve states reported widespread flu activity, 26 states reported regional flu activity and 10 states reported local influenza activity. A flu vaccine is the best available way to protect against influenza. CDC recommends that everyone 6 months and older get an injectable flu vaccine as soon as possible. Below is a summary of the key flu indicators for the week ending December 9, 2017:

comment: The number of states with widespread flu has nearly doubled. It is widespread in California and I have it and am very ill.  I am not immune to this one - and I think it is the H3N2 mutant strain. The vaccine was only 10% effective this year.

We do not want to be a terminally ill country - where our first defense is denial.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2017 at 2:21pm
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/12/us-flu-activity-jumps-new-variant-h3n2-case-confirmed

Influenza activity is now widespread in 12 states across the country, and officials have confirmed a new case of variant H3N2 (H3N2v) flu, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its weekly update.

Other indicators are also up sharply, and officials noted a new pediatric death.

ILI visits also climb

Flu was widespread in 12 states, some of them in the Midwest and West for the first time this year, according to the CDC's FluView report covering the week ending Dec 9. During the week before, flu was widespread in only 7 states, 6 in the South plus Massachusetts. Today California, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio, New York, and Connecticut were added to the roster.

Twenty-six states and Puerto Rico reported regional activity, and 10 noted local flu activity.

The proportion of patients visiting outpatient clinics with influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms is now 2.7%, well above the national baseline of 2.2% and up from 2.3% the week before. In addition, four states (Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas) experienced high ILI activity, an increase in one from the week before. Five states experienced moderate ILI activity; New York City, Puerto Rico, and 16 states experienced low ILI activity; and 25 states experienced minimal ILI activity.

Flu activity is at or above region-specific baselines in 7 of 10 US regions.

Influenza A is still the dominant strain detected from specimens collected by US laboratories, with 82.2% of specimens collected last week being that type. Since Oct 1, 76.4% of all specimens tested have been influenza A.

comment: This is only December. It will get colder and these numbers will go up. 

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