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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic.

Ukraine-Swine Flu Mutation?

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mjm1 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mjm1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 6:01pm
Loribearme, that is a story from 11/2/09 - I would think there would be more on the plague subject since that date , as in a definite confirmation -
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 6:01pm
 
 
 
News Agency "Fraza" reported ....      :/


The Pathologist says... No Plague...   as there would be... many more ... deaths.

Is anyone reading that post?

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Mahshadin View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 6:08pm
This would all be much easier if WHO just released the Sequences to the scientific community
 
Yes
 
If ther is no problerm than there is no reason for an obvious delay
 
Just my opinion
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jrosesr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 6:14pm
At this point I don't know what to believe anymore. Did you know they don't test the patients for H1N anymore? I have friends in eastern Europe and that is what they told me. They keep saying they died from H1N1 by symptoms which will increase the number and fear without a scientific proof. Honestly I really think the panic is a lot bigger than the real virus.

I keep saying use natural products and you will be safe
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bluesman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 6:15pm
Originally posted by Mary008 Mary008 wrote:

hi Bluesman...

A Reporter.... calls it a ...   mixture...    and it's then a new virus attributed

to the Pathologist she is interviewing?
 
How accurate is that?       Where does the Pathologist say there is a new virus?
 
 
There are many viruses that may co-infect.
Your points are well taken.  The reporter did not make the statement ""The virus is a Mixture of H1N1 and Parainfluenza," it was said by Dr. Bachinsky. If you will note the quote I mentioned earlier,  he clearly states THE virus, not the viruses or the virus mix, etc.  From his interview, I believe it is very clear he is speaking of one virus.  Hence, the reason why the senior forum moderator at Swineflu.org raised greater awareness with his press release after I posted the interview with Dr. Bachinksy on his site.  The issue is now very serious.  We need gene sequencing to resolve the clinical observations.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 6:33pm
 
 
 
 
from Bluesman...
 
The reporter did not make the statement ""The virus is a Mixture of H1N1 and Parainfluenza," it was said by Dr. Bachinsky.
....................................................................
 
 
 
Professor, you said earlier that the virus, from which many people have died – is a mixture of types of parainfluenza and influenza A/H1N1. How do you cure this disease?
 
 
...........................
 
from Bluesman...
 
He has not seen a co-infection but the results of a "new" virus.
........................
 
where did the Pathologist say that the Virus is New?
 
 
I don't see it in the article...
 
 
Just cut and paste it for us.
 
 
........
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mysty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 6:38pm
I spoke to an Alaska reporter when they flew those 3 folks out of the small Island 2.5 miles from Russia mainland. The little girl tested negative for h1n1 but was in severe respiratory distress. I asked him why this wasnt in the news. He said that he didnt feel a reporter should cause panic. I told him panic now or panic later, panic will happen, so why not try to find out the truth so we can deal with it. He stopped talking to me =s


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bluesman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 6:42pm
Originally posted by Mary008 Mary008 wrote:

 
 
 
 
from Bluesman...
 
The reporter did not make the statement ""The virus is a Mixture of H1N1 and Parainfluenza," it was said by Dr. Bachinsky.
....................................................................
 
 
 
Professor, you said earlier that the virus, from which many people have died – is a mixture of types of parainfluenza and influenza A/H1N1. How do you cure this disease?
 
 
...........................
 
from Bluesman...
 
He has not seen a co-infection but the results of a "new" virus.
........................
 
where did the Pathologist say that the Virus is New?
 
 
I don't see it in the article...
 
 
Just cut and paste it for us.
 
 
........
Here is Dr. Bachinsky's statement found within the interview I posted here (with my underline added):
Quote "The question of how to treat this virus is not up to me."
The quote containing the mix statement is found within Albert's press release.
Quote "The virus is a Mixture of H1N1 and Parainfluenza," said Dr. Bachinksy
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bluesman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 6:58pm
Here is something posted on swineflu.org  that will give some perspective on Dr. Bachinsky.
 

Ukrainian disease is viral disstressindroma

  Translated from Russian courtesy Google:

Ukrainians do not die from pneumonia, but from viral disstressindroma - expert

November 12, 2009 15:41


All victims of the virus in Bukovina (22 persons aged 20 to 40 years) died not from bilateral pneumonia, as previously thought, but as a result of viral disstressindroma, ie total lung injury: first comes the cardio-pulmonary insufficiency, and then developed cardiogenic shock, which causes cardiac arrest and death. On this Monday, 11 November, the newspaper "Doba" said Chief of the Chernivtsi regional forensic bureau, PhD, Professor Victor Bachinsky.

"During the bilateral pneumonia monitor specific morphological picture. Regarding these deaths, there is no such morphological picture. The virus, which causes death, is very aggressive, he did not strike the trachea, and immediately gets into the lungs and causes strong swelling and continuous hemorrhage. Causes such a state of mixed types of parainfluenza and influenza A/N1N1. This is a very toxic strain, which has not yet been worked out by the Ministry of Health method of treatment ", - said Victor Bachinsky.

According to him, an urgent need to change the treatment standards, because those used so far, the results have not given - in intensive care unable to save all people infected with the virus. Not justified in this situation and ALV apparatus - the death rate of people attacked is 100%.

In view of this, a group of professors of Chernivtsi Medical University appealed to the Ministry of Health and NSDC to demand to review the standards of treatment of patients in Bukovina. Scientists-morphological sent to Kiev reports, studies and taken from seriously ill and died from the virus of tests.

Victor Bachinsky, part of the initiators of the treatment group, notes that the virus is extremely toxic, it is able to penetrate not only through inhalation but also through the eye membrane.  Therefore Chernovtsy scientists recommend in any case not to give up the masks and the period of the epidemic even wearing goggles.  An important condition to prevent deterioration of the situation is also the observance of quarantine regime.

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Loribearme Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 8:01pm

Situation Update No. 40
On 17.11.2009 at 03:37 GMT+2

In the Ukraine, a strain of the flu has infected 1.4 million people. The death toll, according to the Ukraine Health Ministry, is at 315 people as of November 16, 2009. The World Bank Database gives the estimated population for the Ukraine as a little over 46 million. While the percentages do not appear high, the reported symptoms and contagion patterns of this flu are of concern to some doctors. The virus is being tested at the Medical Research Council laboratories, in Britain. "We don't believe it's H1N1 swine flu. Neither do we know what kind of pneumonia it is," states Ukrainian emergency physician Myron Borysevych. The Daily Mail states that doctors are likening this strain of the flu to the Spanish flu, which included internal hemorrhage and edema in the lungs. Last week, the World Health Organization team working in the Ukraine stated that there would be a second wave of the epidemic. This prediction appears to be coming true. The Ukraine Health Ministry reports 16 new deaths in the past day alone. Samples of the Ukraine flu virus were provided to a British lab, for testing to conclusively subtype the virus. Learning whether the virus is a mutated form of the H1N1 swine flu, or an entirely new type of flu virus, will help health officials and members of the public take necessary measures for protection from this deadly disease.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert_read.php?glide=EP-20091028-23630-UKR&cat=dis&lang=eng
 
This is the most recent update. 
 
Now is the time for making sure food is stocked up for 6 months! Shocked
 
Also this is making mainstream news now!  
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2009 at 8:16pm
hi...
 
 we see that according to the translation...he said..    the virus.    not   "new Virus"
 
 H1N1 is highly infective similar to other countries...we also had a high infection rate here.
 
 
They did warn us that this H1N1 would act very different among populations in various
 
countries ...every population/area has a different health status.
 
 
as for    Viral  distress syndrome
 
 
Swine flu and Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)
..............................................................................................
 
 

The swine flu is killing people in South Africa and the best way to aviod it is just to stay at home but not everyone can do this. Mostly Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is not mentioned as a direct symptom of swine flu but if we look at the cases we soon see that most people that die from swine flu actually dies from Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) will make a person feel like they cant get enough air to or through their lungs, other symptoms include:
Anxiety
Shortness of breath
Agitation
Fever
tachypnea
dyspnea
Shock
Blue skin, lips
Laboared breathing
Rapid breathing
Confusion
There are other signs as well
 
Today a man in India died of Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) as well a woman in South Africa. Most cases where someone has died of swine flu involves ARDS.
 
So rather be safe than sorry if you have a few of these symptoms you should let it get checked out.

source
fto.co.za/swine-flu-and-acute-respiratory-distress-syndrome-ards-2009082014510
 
 
 
Mary008
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MarieF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 17 2009 at 4:12am

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Ukraine - update 2

17 November 2009 -- Preliminary tests reveal no significant changes in the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus based on investigations of samples taken from patients in Ukraine. Analyses are being performed by two WHO influenza collaborating centres as part of the global influenza surveillance network.

Preliminary genetic sequencing shows that the virus is similar to the virus used for production of the pandemic influenza vaccine, reconfirming the vaccine's efficacy at this time.

Related links

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009


Additional questions about the pandemic virus circulating in Ukraine will be answered as more data is available.

WHO commends the government of Ukraine for its open sharing of samples to inform global monitoring of the virus for signs of change.

A total of 34 samples were analysed independently by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Mill Hill in London, UK, and the WHO Collaborating Centre for the Surveillance, Epidemiology and Control of Influenza in Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_16/en/index.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Loribearme Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 17 2009 at 5:21am

Additional questions about the pandemic virus circulating in Ukraine will be answered as more data is available.

WHO commends the government of Ukraine for its open sharing of samples to inform global monitoring of the virus for signs of change

They are stalling that is obvious.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mysty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 17 2009 at 6:48am
 Is there any other group / organization that is capable of identifying what is happening over there? If there is no significant change, why would so many people test negative that are so ill. This is very disturbing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 17 2009 at 7:51am
Originally posted by MarieF MarieF wrote:

"...virus is similar"

 
Like I said on our sister site.. "Similar" is "different"? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 17 2009 at 8:44am
Ok folks, articles are TERRIBLE.  Is it or is it not H1N1. Has it or has it not mutated.  Is it or is it not resmebling 1918....this is SO frustrating!
NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tedrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 17 2009 at 8:51am
Originally posted by roni3470 roni3470 wrote:

Ok folks, articles are TERRIBLE.  Is it or is it not H1N1. Has it or has it not mutated.  Is it or is it not resmebling 1918....this is SO frustrating!
Exactly, roni3470! It would be nice if the forum members (who are giving us this information) could take an unscientific straw poll and give US their opinions with what knowledge they each have.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 4=laro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 17 2009 at 9:08am
U are asking for spin.  It is best to wait and see what comes of the tests.

People may have been on this form for a long time but that doesnt make them smarter then the fly on the wall.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bluesman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 17 2009 at 9:17am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Originally posted by MarieF MarieF wrote:

"...virus is similar"

 
Like I said on our sister site.. "Similar" is "different"? 
Ok, let's look at "similar" H1N1 strains.  First, we have "minor" receptor binding domain changes in D225N or D225G in San Paulo resulting in fatalities similar to Ukraine.   Then we have a cluster of H274Y patients in Scotland that results in Tamiflu resistance.  So far these do not affect vaccine efficacy but do result in more fatalities.
 
Are such changes "significant"???  You decide.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bluesman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 17 2009 at 9:28am
Originally posted by Tedrick Tedrick wrote:

Originally posted by roni3470 roni3470 wrote:

Ok folks, articles are TERRIBLE.  Is it or is it not H1N1. Has it or has it not mutated.  Is it or is it not resmebling 1918....this is SO frustrating!
 
Exactly, roni3470! It would be nice if the forum members (who are giving us this information) could take an unscientific straw poll and give US their opinions with what knowledge they each have.
 
If we had the Ukraine gene sequecing, and IF there are revision changes at
D225N, one could argue that the changes at receptor binding domains are similar to 1918.  They were in Brazil.  Here is an excerpt from a September 2009 analysis of the Brazil strain.
 

2009-09-17

Deaths in Brasil Match 1918 and H5N1 Receptor Binding Domain at HA 225G

Within 9 Sao Paulo sequences released today from Brasil spanning late July to mid August 2009, we find at least 6 distinct HA backgrounds of which 5 are compelling and 2 are novel to the PF11 reservoir.  Sequences from potentially expired patients are indicated boldly.  This level of genetic diversity at key antigen sites on the Hemagglutinin (HA/H1) in a single geography during a common timeframe is of great interest and, at a minimum, reflects regional Acquisition Acceleration

Bear in mind that in the early stages of the pandemic, PF11 exhibited extreme stability demonstrating 100% homology across entire countries.  You will find in the early record several groups of more than 400 HA and NA sequences across diverse geography that match exactly.  We are now in a new phase as the PF11 reservoir has been passaged within humans through one winter cycle in the Southern Hemisphere and has demonstrated the ability to rapidly gain beneficial genetic traits, traits that drive toward fatal outcomes.

.......Background4
SaoPaulo53845
206T
225N

In addition to these two specimens from Brasil, 225N is found only on one other PF11 sequence, NY4099.  Several Korean swine carry the change.  More importantly, a linked candidate, A/swine/Hong Kong/NS1659/2001, featuring widely in PF11 Genetic Acquisition paths also carries 225N.  HKswNS1659 shows HA:188I, 189T, 252M & 261K with additional matching to the 2008-2009 Seasonal Influenza NA Triple Combination, 106I, 248N, 286G.

Background5
SaoPaulo53206, SaoPaulo53225
206T
225G

Receptor Binding Domain changes at 225 may be correlative to fatal outcomes in Brasil as 100% of these cases appear to have expired (4/4).  However, the RBD change may not be a requirement for fatality in SaoPaulo.  Of three cases carrying only the 206T revision, one (SaoPaulo54392) appears to have expired.

225G is consensus for H5N1, is carried on NewYork1918 and only appears in six other PF11 sequences across the US and Mexico.

MX3955
MXInDRE4114
NY04
GA01
TX05
TX11
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