Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese


Forum Home Forum Home > General Discussion > Latest News
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Underprepared for the next pandemic
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic.

Underprepared for the next pandemic

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
arirish View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: June 19 2013
Location: Arkansas
Status: Offline
Points: 34685
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Underprepared for the next pandemic
    Posted: November 15 2013 at 7:51pm

Surge’ capacity lacking, even in Boston


By Alvin Powell, Harvard Staff Writer

Despite world-class hospitals and an army of highly trained medical personnel, the local health establishment doesn’t have the excess “surge” capacity to handle a flu pandemic outbreak.

And Boston isn’t alone. A panel of experts on pandemics and public health said Wednesday that not only is such capacity lacking in Boston, it is in short supply around the world and would affect everything from providing beds for the sick to the ability to make and distribute vaccines.

“There’s just little wiggle room in today’s health care system,” said Anita Barry, the director of Boston’s Infectious Disease Bureau.

Barry spoke at the Harvard School of Public Health as part of a discussion about whether heath specialists are ready to handle the next pandemic. Though many people are thinking hard about the problem and keeping an eye on worrisome developments, such as a bird flu outbreak in China that has killed 45 and an outbreak of the SARS-like Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) that has killed 64, the global capacity to handle a major outbreak is still a work in progress.

The discussion, held by The Forum at Harvard School of Public Health, was presented in collaboration with Public Radio International’s “The World” and WGBH, and was part of the Forum’s Andelot Series on Current Science Controversies.

Joining Barry at the event were Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology and director of HSPH’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; Klaus Stohr, vice president and global head of influenza franchises for Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics; and Robert Huebner, director of the Influenza Division of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority. The moderator was Peter Thomson, environment editor for PRI’s “The World.”

Lipsitch provided an overview on pandemics, saying that to qualify, a virus has to be both easily transmissible between humans and new to the human immune system. The last flu pandemic occurred in 2009, with the H1N1 virus. The 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was caused by a coronavirus and killed more than 700.

Much of the event focused on flu, as past pandemics have killed millions. Vaccines are the best protection against a new flu virus. Though technology has improved production, it still takes weeks to create a new flu vaccine, months to get it to the public, and as long as a year to make it widely available around the world, Stohr said. Vaccine production remains dependent on the industrial capacity used to produce seasonal flu vaccine, and developing nations’ lack of capacity won’t change any time soon.

The news isn’t all bad, however. Stohr said there are new technologies on the horizon that can cut initial vaccine development to just a week from the current four to six weeks. It may take as long as a decade, but other production technologies are being developed that may make it affordable to build and maintain idle capacity in case of a pandemic.

Huebner, whose organization’s mission is to speed promising new technology to market in case of a pandemic, pointed to new ways to make vaccines and new types of medical devices, such as ventilators to help people in respiratory distress, as promising fields of research.

In addition to technological tools, public health officials are armed with low-tech options, such as surveillance of current threats and closing schools and other gathering places to stop the spread of disease.

Barry cautioned that such measures have to be implemented with an understanding of the potential effects — parents working jobs that don’t provide sick days may be forced to choose between staying home with their child and the income needed to provide for their families, she pointed out. In such a case, a child could be left home alone or sent to a day care where he or she would still be exposed to others or, worse, potentially carry infection to a new group of children.

Careful deliberation over implementation is important, she stressed. Recommendations that public health workers wear specific masks during the 2009 bird flu outbreak worked well in hospitals, for example, but in schools, health workers didn’t have masks and were still faced with lines of sick students. Such measures have to be communicated well or they’ll fail, Barry said. Communicators, in turn, have to strike the right balance between caution and panic.

Panelists agreed that national borders — whether closed in an emergency or not — are not a defense against a pandemic. Air transportation, for one, settles that. One study of closing borders in the United Kingdom estimated that it would slow the spread of a pandemic only by days.

“It’s a global problem, we have to face it,” Lipsitch said.

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2013/11/underprepared-for-the-next-pandemic/
Buy more ammo!
Back to Top
Medclinician2013 View Drop Down
Senior Adviser Group
Senior Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: September 17 2013
Location: Carmel
Status: Offline
Points: 9020
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician2013 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 15 2013 at 11:45pm
There was time to prepare.  There was a warning. To destroy the health care system as a possible Pandemic approaches and to hit the poor hard is something even the most cynical of us, never predicted. Bottom line- no health care and SIP. 
Medclinician - not if but when - original
Back to Top
cobber View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2013 at 6:04am
The World Health Organisation needs to be a more vocal !
They need to get emergency responses kick started. 
Everyone looks to them for advice. Including governments and hospitals if nothing is said every one sits on their hands.

Hospitals could be over whelmed, it kind of depends on the size of the problem i guess.

I would consider some basic personal preps.
Several face masks, goggles, gloves, hand sanitizers and have a hoodie or two.
Stock up on canned food, a bit of water, and spare fuel. Maybe guns and ammo for self defense.

Past pandemics swept through quite quickly.

If its a huge one then expect total financial chaos. Very slim chance of that however.
Back to Top
carbon20 View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group


Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14336
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2013 at 2:59pm
hello,

 take a look around as to what is happening in the world , doubt if there enough money in the kitty to

pay  for many more disaster's that are happening on a daliy basis ,never mind plan for  pandemic,

they might up the body bag production!!!!

 that's about all ,
12 monkeys!!!!!
Back to Top
arirish View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: June 19 2013
Location: Arkansas
Status: Offline
Points: 34685
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 16 2013 at 4:13pm
In 2009 there were so many sick that the National Guard set up large tents in the parking lots of several Houston hospitals for triage and isolation.
Buy more ammo!
Back to Top
Elver View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: June 14 2008
Status: Offline
Points: 7778
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 18 2013 at 9:39pm
Originally posted by Medclinician2013 Medclinician2013 wrote:

There was time to prepare.  There was a warning. To destroy the health care system as a possible Pandemic approaches and to hit the poor hard is something even the most cynical of us, never predicted. Bottom line- no health care and SIP. 
 
I know several poor people.  They're poor because they can't control their spending.  They'd rather have all their premium cable channels than get an annual checkup at the doctor or get their teeth cleaned more often then every 10 years.
 
While some people truly are poor, so many more are poor because of their desire to have that flat screen TV or iPhone instead. 
 
The poor in this country are several classes above the poor in other parts of the world. 
 
One of our best friends knows his neighbors well.  He talks to them and knows who is on food stamps and who isn't.  He can tell by the Escalades in their driveways and by what they throw in their garbage cans that they really aren't poor.  He sees beer bottles, prepackaged foods, soda bottles, potato chip wrappers, etc.
 
Perhaps it would be better if someone could educate our so called poor so they could spend their money more wisely.  And how about those food stamps?  I would bet that at least 70% of all food stamp recipients pay for cell phones, cable TV, and any other items that they don't really need, but simply want.  I see this all the time and don't have a lot of sympathy for the typical poor person in this country, including my own brother and his wife.  My brother has over $100,000 worth of collectible toy cars, all premium cable channels, 2 cell phones, a large 4 BR 3 bath house plus an office, but they can't afford to go to the doctor or dentist.  OH PLEASE!  Now this happy couple is on food stamps!!!!
 
My brother and his wife spent money like drunken sailors on a lot of crap and cancelled their health insurance because they said they couldn't afford it, but they still have every single premium cable channel offered, both cell phones, and $100,000 worth of collectible toy cars.  They are categorized by the local hospital as "indigents" and got a free pass on much of their medical bills.  This makes me sick!  They're now trying to find out what money the county can give them.  And even I don't have an automatic soap dispenser on my kitchen sink!  Even we don't spend over a hundred dollars each year keeping 6 bird feeders filled in my back yard.   We don't put out paper napkins in our bathroom every Christmas so our guests can have a clean one each time.  HELLO!  Doesn't anyone see that most of our so called poor people mis manage their money?
 
My co-worker said they live paycheck to paycheck yet they ran right out and bought themselves a brand new flat screen TV!
 
My brother-in-law lives in a large 2 story house with 4 BR's and 3 baths.  He was a crystal meth user and the neighbor saw him doing the nasty to himself in the front yard because he lost his inhibitions.  He went to jail for 6 months and now has a sex offender record.  Then he did't work by choice for the least 14 years even though he could have found something.  He suffered a stroke 2 years ago and was also considered "indigent" by the hospital and got a pass for much of his medical bills.  Why is this guy "indigent"?  Because he made poor choices in his life.  Thank God my sister isn't around anymore to see it.  Why should our tax money go to pay for food stamps to drug users?  If you're getting food stamps or welfare of any kind then you should have to pass a drug test.  Otherwise, starve in the gutter.  I don't care!
 
I would like to know just how many truly poor people there are in this country because I don't actually believe the current statistics on that.  (1 in 6?)
 
Isn't it interesting that Hispanics have one of the highest rates for being poor.  Well, again, if you drive through these so called poor neighborhoods and look at the Cadillac Escalades and other higher end cars you will realize that many of these people pay for their automobiles from the cash you give them to paint your house or put that new roof on.  They are undocumented, but earn a really good living yet we give them supplemental security income because all of their income is off the books and under their mattress!  Isn't anybody in this country going to wake up to the scams that are going on by the millions!
 
I feel bad for the truly poor person, but with all the cheating that's going on how would you tell whose poor and who is abusing the system?  I'm not buying the statistics.
 
Read this article by Forbes titled, "The Correct US Poverty Rate Is Around And About Zero"
"Everything, but everything, depends upon how you measure it. Which leads us to last week’s news from Census about the US poverty rate. Of course, the way that Census measures poverty the numbers they reported were entirely correct. But given the distortions in the methods they do use to measure a more realistic estimate of the US poverty rate would be around and about zero."
 
 
 
 
 
Back to Top
Crying Out Loud View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member


Joined: September 27 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 1395
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crying Out Loud Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 18 2013 at 10:05pm
Elver, those individuals whom you meet and interact with in this world, will only burden you for the time you are here. The character traits that infuriate you, were created by the mentality of this bastard planet, which was once merely matter unformed, now...an illegitimate plan...in action.

These various perversions and obscenities, which make up the way of this world, are not encouraged, promoted or adored in a centered, positive and legitimate plane. As this planet is guided into it's final moment; the impact of the invisible grave stone wall; the resolute explosion... will finally bring all of this tragedy... to an end.
Back to Top
FluMom View Drop Down
Senior Admin Group
Senior Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: February 11 2008
Status: Offline
Points: 17561
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 18 2013 at 10:11pm
What bugs me are the smokers! They can't afford coats for their kids but they smoke $8.00 a day in smokes! This country is going down big time!
Always Be Prepared
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down