Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese


Forum Home Forum Home > General Discussion > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - U.S. Flu Season 2017-2018 will it become epidemic?
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

U.S. Flu Season 2017-2018 will it become epidemic?

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Medclinician View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar
Member Since December, 2005

Joined: July 08 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 20682
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: U.S. Flu Season 2017-2018 will it become epidemic?
    Posted: September 29 2017 at 12:20pm
We already have a rather dark omen as the Australian Flu Season is the worst it's been in 15 years. I have been told the virus is mostly h3n2 and it mutated in July.

The question is - how bad will it get in the coming September-May?  Just got off the phone from the CDC and they were willing to tell me a lot about when it was but when I got into what viral strains are covered by the new vaccine - it became a little less clear. One thing is for sure - there is a tri and quad form and depending on where you are- or where your access is for it -  you may not get the quad version.

What does it cover?What viruses will the 2017-2018 flu vaccines protect against?

There are many different flu viruses and they are constantly changing. The composition of U.S. flu vaccines is reviewed annually and updated as needed to match circulating flu viruses. Flu vaccines protect against the three or four viruses (depending on vaccine) that research suggests will be most common. For 2017-2018, three-component vaccines are recommended to contain:

  • an A/Michigan/45/2015 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (updated)
  • an A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (H3N2)-like virus
  • a B/Brisbane/60/2008-like (B/Victoria lineage) virus

Quadrivalent (four-component) vaccines, which protect against a second lineage of B viruses, are recommended to be produced using the same viruses recommended for the trivalent vaccines, as well as a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like (B/Yamagata lineage) virus.


The question that first comes to mind is will it cover the current new strain coming from Australia?  If not - how bad could things get?  Also - how safe is it? There have been issues with vaccine safety in the past.



"not if but when" the original Medclinician
Back to Top
FluMom View Drop Down
Senior Admin Group
Senior Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: February 11 2008
Status: Offline
Points: 17876
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 29 2017 at 6:33pm
Dang the high dose is tri not quad...oh well. I still may get sick. The A has hit Colorado starting in August. They are really pushing people to get the flu shot this year I mean really pushing. They have the Governor on TV getting his shot.

The government must know something we do not know!
Always Be Prepared
Back to Top
Medclinician View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar
Member Since December, 2005

Joined: July 08 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 20682
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 30 2017 at 11:17am
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Dang the high dose is tri not quad...oh well. I still may get sick. The A has hit Colorado starting in August. They are really pushing people to get the flu shot this year I mean really pushing. They have the Governor on TV getting his shot.

The government must know something we do not know!


They most certainly know - and forgive the drama - but when I was talking to the CDC yesterday as a "health professional" they hung up on me when I began to ask if the current vaccine was effective against the new emerging strains from Australia.

We are familiar here, veteran's of the 2009 Pandemic with twisted news from CDC denying hundreds of thousands of case in New York, with the "lag" of months reporting epidemics. They will come out months later and say "Yes, it was really bad back then" when reporting little during the crisis.

I was told by a person working a Madison in Wisconsin that if the vaccine doesn't work and people start getting the Flu in large numbers they simply tell people to SIP (Stay in Place).

It very well could be a very harsh winter coming upon us - despite all the cries of Global Warming - New York may have their worst in years as well as Chicago and other Northern States.

Medclinician

"not if but when" the original Medclinician
Back to Top
Penham View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar
Moderator

Joined: February 09 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 10408
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 30 2017 at 6:01pm
I need to get my flu shot.
Back to Top
Medclinician View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar
Member Since December, 2005

Joined: July 08 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 20682
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 11:49am
Originally posted by Penham Penham wrote:

I need to get my flu shot.


You are right. I am talking to over a dozen people in New York who already have this and it is bad. It has spread to their whole family and everyone who has visited them in a few weeks.

There is what appears to be a news blackout on reports of deaths in the U.S.  However with a little digging already people are dying from the "new Flu" i.e. a variant of the animal which has arrived from Australia.

https://www.ok.gov/health/Disease,_Prevention,_Preparedness/Acute_Disease_Service/Disease_Information/OK_Flu_View.html


Deaths Reported with Testing between August 2 - August 31, 2017 - 2

Influenza Season Week 38 ending September 23, 2017


Thirty-two human infections with novel influenza A viruses were reported by two states (Delaware [1] and Maryland [31]). Fourteen of these viruses have been fully characterized and are influenza A (H3N2) variant (H3N2v) viruses; the remaining 18 viruses have tested presumptive positive for H3v at the Maryland public health laboratory and further confirmatory testing is being performed by CDC to characterize these viruses.

To date, CDC has confirmed a total of 34 variant virus infections in the United States during 2017. Thirty-two of these were H3N2v viruses (Delaware [1], Maryland [13], North Dakota [1], Ohio [15], Pennsylvania [1], and Texas [1]) and two were influenza A (H1N2) variant (H1N2v) viruses (Ohio [2]). An additional 18 viruses have tested presumptive positive for H3v and further analysis is being conducted at CDC (Maryland [18]

From October 1st we have officially entered the 2017-2018 Flu Season in the U.S. Don't hold your breath for the first week map from CDC.

There are already outbreaks and virtually no mainstream media news coverage as yet.

Medclinician
"not if but when" the original Medclinician
Back to Top
Medclinician View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar
Member Since December, 2005

Joined: July 08 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 20682
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:04pm
  • Trivalent influenza vaccine (
  • A/Michigan/45/2015 (H1N1)pdm09–like virus
  • A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 [H3N2]-like virus
  • B/Brisbane/60/2008–like virus [Victoria lineage])

  • Quadrivalent influenza virus (includes three viruses listed for Trivalent vaccine + additional
  • B vaccine virus [B vaccine virus, a B/Phuket/3073/2013–like virus])

  • Recombinant influenza vaccine (both trivalent and quadrivalent)

U.S. 2017-2018 Flu Vaccine. 

CNN

An earlier onset this season contributed in part to the increase, the Australian Department of Health said in its surveillance report.

Influenza A (H3N2) is the predominant circulating influenza A virus nationally this year, and most of the deaths were due to this strain (81%).
"There are the A group of viruses and the B groups," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University. "The A groups are the ones that usually are responsible for large epidemics."
Though these A strains change periodically, they're the ones that cause pandemics, "whereas the B flu strains usually smolder along. They always cause illness -- it can be just as severe as the A strains -- but they don't produce large outbreaks," he said.




Medclinician

"not if but when" the original Medclinician
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 39186
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:11pm
It certainly looks like it's going to be a bad flu season, but I haven't seen anything that gives me too much cause for concern.

Without diminishing the loss of life this time of year inevitably brings, I don't prep for a bad flu season. H1N1 and H7N9 make more far more nervous than H3N2. That's not to say it couldn't get it's pandemic credentials in time for this year, but I think it's a minor pandemic candidate at best.

Get your shot and you'll probably be fine.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
Medclinician View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar
Member Since December, 2005

Joined: July 08 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 20682
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:20pm
Originally posted by xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx wrote:


У меня уникальный иммунитет. Даёт организму заразиться потом борется с болезнью. Болею гриппом в очень лёхкой форме. Мой иммунитет доказан. Заболел гриппом, болел 4 дня. На второй день сделал общий анализ крови, лейкоциты 9.0. Единственный симптом насморк.
Мусульманин. 3 раза в день принимаю тахарат в холодной водопроводной воде, а 2 раза в ледяной воде из артезианского источника, ноги мою раз в день но в тёплой воде, а это микро закаливание. Иммунитет хороший кто пьет воды от 2 до 3 литров день, а я пью от 3 до 5 литров день. Не работаю,молодой пенсионер 40 лет. Спокоен как удав. Нужна оценка
У меня иммунитет только против гриппа. Могу доказать. Сообщите при получении. Моим делом занимается Администрация Президента РФ. Мой иммунитет доказан через интернет. Живу в Альметьевск. У меня есть два анализа иммунограммы,доказывающие что могу победить вирус мечеган играючи      

Повышение и снижение уровня Т-лимфоцитов
Увеличение Т-лимфоцитов в иммунограмме указывает на гиперактивность иммунной системы      При норме от 600 до 2500 у меня 2835

Недостаточная активность Т-супрессоров ведёт к преобладанию влияния Т-хелперов, что способствует более сильному и ммунному ответу. При норме от450 до 850 у меня 1808. Т-киллеры, цитотоксические T-лимфоциты, CTL (от англ. to kill — убивать) — вид Т-лимфоцитов, осуществляющий лизис повреждённых клеток собственного организма. Мишени Т-киллеров — это клетки, поражённые внутриклеточными паразитами (к которым относятся вирусы и некоторые виды бактерий), опухолевые клетки. При норме от 270 до 540 у меня 945.           По словам иммунолога лимфоцитоз в результате повышенных т-хелперов. Иммунолог-алерголог может потвердить что у меня очень сильный иммунитет.


Translated:

I have unique immunity. Gives the body an infection and then struggles with the disease. I'm sick with the flu in a very slight form. My immunity is proved. I got sick with the flu, I was sick for 4 days. On the second day I made a general blood test, white blood cells 9.0. The only symptom is a runny nose.
Muslim. 3 times a day I take taharat in cold tap water, and 2 times in ice water from an artesian spring, my feet once a day but in warm water, and this is micro hardening. Immunity is good who drinks water from 2 to 3 liters a day, and I drink from 3 to 5 liters a day. I'm not working, a young pensioner is 40 years old. Quiet as a boa constrictor. Need an estimate
I have immunity only against the flu. I can prove it. Inform on receipt. My business is the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation. My immunity is proved through the Internet. I live in Almetyevsk. I have two immunogram analyzes, proving that I can defeat the virus of the swordfish playfully

Increase and decrease in the level of T-lymphocytes
The increase in T-lymphocytes in the immunogram indicates the hyperactivity of the immune system. At a rate of 600 to 2500, I have 2835

Insufficient activity of T-suppressors leads to the predominance of the influence of T-helpers, which contributes to a stronger and more mundane response. At a rate of 450 to 850, I have 1808. T-killers, cytotoxic T-lymphocytes, CTL (a type of T-lymphocytes that carry out lysis of damaged cells of their own organism). Targets of T-killers are cells afflicted with intracellular parasites (which include viruses and certain types of bacteria), tumor cells. At a rate of 270 to 540, I have 945. According to the immunologist, lymphocytosis as a result of elevated t-helpers. An immunologist-an allergist can confirm that I have very strong immunity.

comment: If you are going to post this, please do it in English. Most of us do not read Russian. I also have a unique immunity to Bird Flu having had it in West Virginia and my wife and I nearly died from it. Our blood probably has a unique substance which Dr. Niman (who has vanished) could have used to help the world.

I suggest you find yourself a willing virologist doing research, have them take your blood, and see what they can do. Good luck. Thank you for your input and this was a very interesting read for me. T-Cells and their effectiveness is important against a vast array of diseases including Cancer.

комментарий: Если вы собираетесь опубликовать это, пожалуйста, сделайте это на английском языке. Большинство из нас не читает русский язык. У меня также есть уникальный иммунитет к птичьему гриппу, который имел это в Западной Вирджинии, и моя жена и я чуть не умерли от этого. У нашей крови, вероятно, есть уникальное вещество, которое д-р Ниман (который исчез) мог бы использовать, чтобы помочь миру.
Я предлагаю вам найти желаемого вирусолога, проводящего исследования, заставить их взять вашу кровь и посмотреть, что они могут сделать. Удачи. Спасибо за ваш вклад, и это было очень интересно читать для меня. Т-клетки и их эффективность важны для широкого спектра заболеваний, включая рак.

Medclinician
"not if but when" the original Medclinician
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 39186
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:29pm
Med - I know you feel the media orchestrate a news blackout of flu related news every year, but most people don't think about influenza in the same way we do. Ask people on the street about the circulating strains, and they won't be able to name them because they don't care enough to find out. As an example, I was talking to the nurses manning a flu shot station at my doctor's office about H7N9, and none of them had even heard about it. I had to write it down so they could google it correctly.

It's not a conspiracy. It's just that the population in general have zero interest in flu outbreaks other than whether they'll personally catch it. The media gives us what we want to hear because the bottom line is that it's good for business.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 39186
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:33pm
Please don't quote Rishat. The moderator group deletes his posts on a daily basis - far more often than other members probably realize - but the quote stays up unless we delete your post too. We try not give him the attention he's clearly seeking as it doesn't benefit the site to have someone treating the place as their own private message board.



"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 29795
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:34pm
Xxxxxxxx is just Rishat, Med.  It is one of the many spam posts he covers our site in daily.  

I have deleted the post of his you quoted and translated, at the same time as banning his last username.  

Please do not encourage him.  Over the past week I have removed about 50 of his posts and banned about 10 of his aliases.  All the other mods are doing the same daily.  He makes more work for us than all of the other spammers combined.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Chief Moderator
Chief Moderator
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 39186
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:51pm
Ришат - ваши сообщения будут удалены так быстро, как вы их пишете. Больше не тратьте свое время здесь.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
Medclinician View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar
Member Since December, 2005

Joined: July 08 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 20682
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2017 at 12:58pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

Med - I know you feel the media orchestrate a news blackout of flu related news every year, but most people don't think about influenza in the same way we do. Ask people on the street about the circulating strains, and they won't be able to name them because they don't care enough to find out. As an example, I was talking to the nurses manning a flu shot station at my doctor's office about H7N9, and none of them had even heard about it. I had to write it down so they could google it correctly.

It's not a conspiracy. It's just that the population in general have zero interest in flu outbreaks other than whether they'll personally catch it. The media gives us what we want to hear because the bottom line is that it's good for business.



There are two takes on this Jacksdad. No doubt the media cater to what people want to read and even when they are sick, many them (Aussies as well) have the attitude - it's just a cold. I talked to the CDC yesterday and when I started asking the person who was suppose to have information when I started talking about strains they were lost.

Unfortunately, when we get into genetics and start digging in, it is the viruses that are the conspiracy to overthrow the human race - which is ironic - since they will have to go dormant if they can until some other species can be a host.

At a very deep level, and this was among the people who call the shots for our government on disease response, it was felt that there was more danger in people being alarmed than people dying from the flu. This not only would effect the population and the emergency rooms, but the economy as well. You might compare this to the broadcast of "War of the Worlds" where people were jumping off buildings.

So, during the last Pandemic - I started saying "Don't Panic - Prepare". That is my current philosophy. Sadly, those in government- not all - some - don't have the mental horsepower anymore for a good conspiracy nor do they care.

However the best antivirals are in storage for the elite and military and the best holes to hide in for the politicians and people with money.

That being said, it is up to us here at AFT to mind the watchtowers and know before the masses when a bad one is going to hit.

In the past, except for the Pandemic of 1918.

Here is some info from a place I fondly roamed in my earlier years and still visit.

https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/


As Dr. John Ray and I once discussed, most of the time the actual death rate is not enough to really effect anything. It was during the Bubonic Plague...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubonic_plague


Yet, the bottom line is, it doesn't take 50,30, or a little as 15% to shut down our infrastructure. With a CFR of 5% - it would put the U.S. into chaos.

To sum this up.. is it a conspiracy? Well let's look at the facts...on the last Pandemic...in 2009

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/pandemic-global-estimates.htm

June 25, 2012 -- A study published today in The Lancet Infectious Diseases Online First provides the first global estimates of how many people died as a result of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The study, co-authored by 9 members of the CDC Influenza Division, used an improved modeling approach which resulted in an estimated range of deaths from between 151,700 and 575,400 people who perished worldwide from 2009 H1N1 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated. A disproportionate number of deaths occurred in Southeast Asia and Africa, where access to prevention and treatment resources are more likely to be limited. Study authors hope that this work can be used not only to improve how influenza deaths are estimated, but also to improve the public health response during future pandemics in parts of the world that suffer more influenza-related deaths.

These global estimates are more than 15 times higher than the number of laboratory-confirmed deaths reported to the World Health Organization (WHO). WHO has acknowledged for some time that official, lab-confirmed reports are an underestimate of actual number of influenza deaths. Diagnostic specimens are not always collected from people who die with influenza; for others, influenza virus may not be detectable by the time of death. Because of these challenges, modeling is used to estimate the actual burden of disease.

comment: I know the actual cases in New York were upwards of 500,000 versus the few thousand CDC was reporting and nearly got me thrown off this site when I posted them. They fibbed. They knew there were more and months later they finally, finally admitted it.

So, now 8 years later - I do not trust the figures. For one, doctors are not required to report adult fatalities anymore - just children - nor do they have to report Flu cases. Usually these are lumped together with pneumonia like illnesses. So - we cannot have an accurate death count because they don't report them. As to cases - we are limited to a very small number of places where they take samples of people who come in. Those who do not come in - are not tested - are often many more. So the numbers of actual cases or deaths could be as much as 10x what is reported.

Paranoia - conspiracy. No. Just plain old don't ask - don't tell.

We know for a fact there were more deaths reported in Victoria in Australia than were reported in all of the country. Which means - the numbers are not accurate.

Final point: We need to know how bad it is getting so we can run and buy water and stock food before Walmarts are sacked. Those of us who believe in Crystalline vitamin C (cannot promote this and am not) take it and also get to a doctor who will give us an antiviral that is still effective. Many doctors will not prescribe them.

So - an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Prep for this winter. It could be nasty weather wise and Flu wise.  If it's not you can always pig out in the Spring and celebrate.

Medclinician

"not if but when" the original Medclinician
Back to Top
Medclinician View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar
Member Since December, 2005

Joined: July 08 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 20682
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2017 at 9:52am
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/09/news-scan-sep-21-2017

An outbreak of influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) virus infections in Maryland was first reported to the state health department on September 18, 2017. Although the number of reported human cases in Maryland is declining, an additional 8 human infections associated with this ongoing investigation were reported to CDC. In addition, Michigan reported a single H3N2v case, unrelated to the ongoing investigation in Maryland (Maryland [8] and Michigan [1]). Six of these viruses have been confirmed as H3N2v viruses; the remaining three viruses have tested presumptive positive for H3N2v at the Maryland public health laboratory; further testing is being performed by CDC to characterize these viruses. All nine patients reported exposure to swine at one of two agricultural fairs during the week preceding illness onset. Swine influenza A(H3N2) viruses were identified from respiratory samples collected from pigs at one of the fairs. Eight of the nine patients were children younger than 18 years and one patient was an adult aged >50 years. One of the nine patients was hospitalized and all patients are recovering or have fully recovered from their illness. No human-to-human transmission of these viruses has been identified.

comment:  So far there is almost a complete blackout in mainstream media reporting of the flu in the U.S.  The variant - which the current vaccine does not protect against, has reach America from Australia. This is Swine Flu and it was a  Swine Flu that caused the last Pandemic.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/cdcresponse.htm

Obviously Swine Flu has mutated - not become a variant since 2009. This last strain is nastier, deadlier and has already put several people I know in New York in the hospital. It has combined symptoms of a respiratory and intestinal flu.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H3N2

You can check out the various seasons and strains above. Most of the vaccines over the last  years have not matched the predominate flu strain for the season and were not that effective.

Let's take a look at the 2014-2015 Flu Season for what could easily happen in the 2016-2017 Flue Season.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-health-flu/more-than-three-quarters-of-u-s-flu-shots-ineffective-report-idUSKBN0KO29G20150115


CHICAGO (Reuters) - More than three-quarters of Americans who got this season’s flu shot could get the virus anyway, given a mismatch between the flu strains covered by the shot and those actually causing illness in people, U.S. officials said.

An interim CDC report found the shot was only 23 percent effective overall, a performance about in line with what the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted last year, experts said. At the time, CDC warned that the predominant flu virus, influenza A (H3N2), had “drifted” or changed genetically since the shot was made.

How effective?

2004-05 10%
2005-06 21%
2006-07 52%
2007-08 37%
2008-09 41%
2009-10 56%
2010-11 60%
2011-12 47%
2012-13 49%
2013-14 52%
2014-15 19%
2015-16 47%

*Estimate from Nov 2, 2015–April 15, 2016.
comment: one thought that came to me today as I talked to my lady who has it and said "I am going to be sure to get my flu shot next week".  Will this help?  If already have had the flu should you still be vaccinated?

The actual vaccine effectiveness may be less than these numbers. Yet looking at 2014-2015 - it was pathetic. Someone very close to me died during that one.

Medclinician


"not if but when" the original Medclinician
Back to Top
Medclinician View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar
Member Since December, 2005

Joined: July 08 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 20682
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2017 at 2:38pm

Week 40
No. of specimens tested 407
No. of positive specimens 72
Positive specimens by type/subtype  
    Influenza A 62 (86.1%)
    A(H1N1)pdm09 6 (9.7%)
    H3 49 (79.0%)
    Subtyping not performed 7 (11.3%)
    Influenza B 10 (13.9%)
     Yamagata lineage 5 (50.0%)
     Victoria lineage 0 (0%)
      Lineage not performed 5 (50.0%)
"not if but when" the original Medclinician
Back to Top
Medclinician View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar
Member Since December, 2005

Joined: July 08 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 20682
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2017 at 2:45pm
Originally posted by Medclinician Medclinician wrote:


Week 40
No. of specimens tested 407
No. of positive specimens 72
Positive specimens by type/subtype  
    Influenza A 62 (86.1%)
    A(H1N1)pdm09 6 (9.7%)
    H3 49 (79.0%)
    Subtyping not performed 7 (11.3%)
    Influenza B 10 (13.9%)
     Yamagata lineage 5 (50.0%)
     Victoria lineage 0 (0%)
      Lineage not performed 5 (50.0%)


comment: The most infections are Influenza A and H3N2 (they will not perform the subtype) is nearly 80% of them.  The question is - will the current vaccine protect people against this strain and by not performing the full typing can they tell if it is the H3N2v (variant)?
"not if but when" the original Medclinician
Back to Top
Medclinician View Drop Down
Senior Advisor Group
Senior Advisor Group
Avatar
Member Since December, 2005

Joined: July 08 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 20682
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2017 at 2:50pm
And so it really begins in the U.S. - of course this map throughout the time I have been posting it, usually vastly understates the spread of the flu. It might be noted that we have a rather peculiar item here. Noting the threats of North Korea to attack Guam - it appears to have begun there - and is widespread. Is this the big surprise we have been threatened with?

Medclinician


"not if but when" the original Medclinician
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down