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War on the horizon

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2017 at 2:04am
https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=10936 CIA; NK months away of ability to strike US. 

DJ; There are many sides to any major conflict.
-The open side, politicians talking, propaganda
-the "not-open"side; gathering information spreading disinformation, military preparation.

My impression on North Korea is that;
-The US President Trump wants (some form of) military action.
-Both military and political leaders in the US are (mostly) against such action.
-Russia and China have warned the US against any military action against NK-and NK against military action against the US.
-Russia and China are working on a political solution wich would include (both) Korea('s) in an economic cooperation like SCO/de-militarization.
-The Russian/China plan is not very welcome for the US because the US would have to decrease influence in South Korea (and thereby Japan).
-The basic conflict is NOT over North Korea but another Us-China/Russia conflict.
-Therefor an attack by the US on North Korea will be seen by Russia and China as an attack on them.
-Russia and China will do (almost) all they can to limit any military conflict-including shooting down missiles/planes/drones from both the US and North Korea that might be involved in military action against eachother.
-International support for major US actions against North Korea is very limited.
-Because of the "political"situation in the US Trump could be persuaded to take action.

In 1960 the US/Kennedy was thinking of attacking China for their nuclear program-in stead of a direct attack the US went for "consolidation" in Viet Nam.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2017 at 10:55pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2017 at 3:10am
Starting wars to cover things up is so common we have a term for it, DJ. We call it:  "The Tail Wagging The Dog."  It is usually a sex scandal (hence the 'tail') but this latest one is quite inventive in finding new scandals to devise.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2017 at 3:11am
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/assassinating-kim-jung-wrong-171020080046237.html

Several reasons why "killing Kim" may be not the best idea. DJ; I think the last reason in the article-even when Kim is dead the NK military still would go to full scale war is proberbly the best reason. Besides that from China/Russia perspective the US has no need to kill Kim. They want to still talk with both North and South Korea on a lot of military issues. 
https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/921554906510712837 Growing concern, is the US ordering people to leave South Korea ? Or is it part of a drill ? 

Former German Prime-Minister Gerhard Schroeder-now working for Russian Gas exporters; https://www.rt.com/business/407317-us-economic-war-schroeder/ 

Another look at history; China got their first nuclear bomb in 1964. But the program was on its way in 1960 (first with Soviet help). The US-Kennedy wanted to stop China. Since a direct confrontation via Taiwan (or the Soviet Union-they had a short war in 1969 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict) did not work the US did put missiles in Italy and Turkey. The Soviet Union did put then missiles on Cuba https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis

During the 1967 six-day-war Israel had a nuclear bomb as "last resort".http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-nuclear-bomb-six-day-war-sinai-egypt-use-weapon-syria-jordan-iraq-a7774921.html (France did provide Israel with "the bomb"after the 1956 Seuz-crisis https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/who-gave-israel-a-nuclear-bomb-1.10355 France did sell Iraq a nuclear reactor in 1976-wich Israel bombed in 1981-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera)

The Iraq story may indicate that military action can prevent a country from getting a nuclear weapon. But looking at more info-Iraq was very far from getting a bomb-NK is NOT Iraq 1981-military options to stop countries from getting a nuclear weapon are limited. South Africa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction dismantled its six nuclear weapons before the ANC came to power. Zaire-under Mobutu had a programm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Center_for_Nuclear_Studies with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTRAG wich moved to Libya under French/Soviet pressure. https://fas.org/nuke/guide/libya/index.html Libya tried to buy a nuclear reactor in 1984 from Belgium-when the Soviet Union hesitated-later on the Soviet Union started some construction for a nuclear reactor in Libya-Surt(e). But the Soviet-Libyan plans never were completed (a.o. because of the collapse of the Soviet Union).
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2017 at 10:44am
(it's looking to me that Trump is getting ready to strike NK first....this is more than a "show of sea and air power.  Watch for it.)

The USS Ronald Reagan, a 100,000-ton nuclear powered aircraft carrier, is patrolling in waters east of the Korean peninsula, in a show of sea and air power designed to warn off North Korea from any military action.

The carrier sailed into the port of Busan in southern South Korea on Saturday in a regular visit to the country as tensions stemming from North Korea‘s missile and nuclear provocations simmer.


The U.S. Navy's biggest warship in Asia, with a crew of 5,000 sailors, sailed around 100 miles launching almost 90 F-18 Super Hornet sorties from its deck, in sight of South Korean islands.


It is conducting drills with the South Korean navy involving 40 warships deployed in a line stretching from the Yellow Sea west of the peninsula into the Sea of Japan.



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4996492/U-S-carrier-patrols-Korean-peninsula-warning-Pyongyang.html#ixzz4wGBh0kBv 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2017 at 11:49am
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Taxman100 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2017 at 8:25pm
Trump I'm afraid is going to launch a war.  He just signed a executive order to give the military the ability to bring personal out of retirement.  we can only hope that millions rather then 10's of millions will be killed. Anthrax and smallpox may be released. It will be the bloodiest war since WWII and will change the world we knew forever I'm afraid.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2017 at 9:37pm
Taxman100, looking at history "most soldiers would be back home at christmas" never worked out in major conflicts. In my opinion there is a major conflict between "east" Russia-Iran-China" and "west" US.
The position of the EU is vague...divided in itself. 

"Hot fronts" are the Ukraine, Turkey-Syria-Iraq, Afghanistan/Pakistan, possibly Bangla Desh/Myamar, North Korea. "Cold fronts" Baltics, Balkan, Black Sea, South China Sea, Taiwan, Bering Strait. Eventhough NATO moved east it is to simple to put all the blame on the west. Under Putin Russia started a build-up to Soviet strenght, China has become an economic giant. 

North Korea is the big questionmark. Can China, Russia, US (together or apart from eachother) get North Korea talking. The nuclear tests in NE-North Korea, not far away from Wladiwostok, China-border have become to risky-even Kim will realize this. (Kim is NOT a mad-man-he copied Israels route to nuclear weapons as a strategic gamechancher, he is now in the position to make (some) demands-overplaying will damage that position.)

Russia-Iran-China leading international cooperation away from the US (petro-dollar) will be hard to accept for the US. But a major war will not change that-minor wars can slow that proces. 

When "things do get out of hand" in my opinion it will get far worse than anything humans have ever seen. 

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 05 2017 at 1:15am
As https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooHxSfI8_p8 Israeli News Live asks, why did Israel not fight terrorism in Syria. http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/11/lebanon-hariris-resignation-the-opening-shot-of-the-saudi-war-on-hizbullah.html# Moon-of-Alabama already has an answer; Israel-Saudi Arabia and the US are at war with Iran and Russia, China. 




DJ; Trump is starting his Asia-tour on monday in Japan. He will meet both Xi-from/in China and Putin during a top in Viet Nam. As several comments on MoA, Saker etc. point out-Trump may find out that he is empty handed. In the US a "deep state elite-anti democratic" is trying to sabotage his presidency (and Trump himself is helping them by his lack of "political talent"), outside the "America First" story is not helping (long term) friendships. 

In my opinion there is a powerstruggle both in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, maybe even South Korea, Israel, Turkey between those who want to stick to some "form of friendship with the US" and those who want to go for deals with China and/or Russia (hoping to limit the role of Iran). So far the US-long term-strategy only made matters worse for "the west". More wars are not welcomed by most countries-when the US only has war to offer it is time to look for better offers. 

The US petro-dollar age-and with that the US leadership-is coming to an end. China does not need the US-the US needs China much more. 

In Syria Putin is willing to work with Israel to keep Iran to close from the Golan-heights. China and Russia want to involve North Korea in a plan for Korean unification on the long term-the US is blocking those peacefull initiatives. 

RISKS: The US has 4000/5000 soldiers in Syria, several thousends in Iraq, Turkey. The US presence in Syria is against international law. The US may not give up its presence in that region very easy. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia may take (more) action against Iran(ian influence). (Both are directly involved in the wars in Syria and Iraq against the Bagdad and Damascus government.)

On Korea it is the US that does not want further talks. Even Japan is not on that line. A military "solution" will turn into uncontroleble very easy, very fast. When the US is willing to sacrify South Korea to deal with a Nort Korean threat other long term US friends will "review their friendships". 

Inside the US the political elte is creating chaos on an unprecedented scale. Starting a major war could become attractive to get some control on the country. 

A conflict could start when a plane crashes, a ship has an accident http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-04/us-navy-being-truthful-its-report-recent-crash-incidents. The cyber-war is already going on. We may be just a few steps away from further (false flag) escalation-proberbly during the Trump Asia visit coming week. 

The Russia-China relation is quite strong. Turkey and Iran could join forces to get a role in the new world order.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 05 2017 at 9:44am
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 05 2017 at 9:07pm
Eventhough the Gulf States and US blockade Yemen ports the US led coalition is losing the Yemen war. So they blame Iran. http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/1544-saudi-arabia-analyzes-missile-intercepted-northeast-of-riyadh-iran-supplied-missile and http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-05/saudis-call-missile-attack-blatant-act-aggression-iran-could-be-considered-act-war



Of course it is all about the controll of energy. petro-US-dollar etc. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-05/did-russias-iranian-energy-deal-kill-four-birds-one-stone (South Asia stream links Iran-via Pakistan with India, Iran and Russia work together for the EU market, Azerbeidjan is a link between energysupply Russia-Iran, also Russia prefers doing bussiness withIran above any deal with (present) KSA) War with Iran would make clear what position Russia, China, Turkey will take. 


Saudi Arabia can only start an open war with Iran with US help. Russia will support Iran, Israel, some Arab states support KSA. Egypt, Pakistan have to choose-working with Iran/Russia would mean break up of old ties with KSA. https://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/11/04/a-new-war-in-lebanon-syria-iraq-and-beyond-on-the-way/ KSA/US integrating IS into SDF.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 05 2017 at 10:48pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 06 2017 at 10:11pm
http://theduran.com/breaking-saudi-regime-orders-arrest-called-syrian-opposition-leaders/ The Duran has an interesting interpretation of the events in KSA. The crownprince may be moving KSA towards accepting the petro-yuan. Arresting those who stand for the petro-US$, supported a policy for foreign intervention. Crownprince Muhamed Bin Salman(MSB) wants to focus on modernizing KSA-would welcome foreign investors (China). http://theduran.com/crisis-in-saudi-arabia-first-shots-in-a-civil-war/ The (saudi) "royals" may have gone to far in their decadence and stealing from the poor. Their time could be up.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-06/verge-catastrophe-saudi-arabia-says-lebanon-declared-war In Lebanon with (Saudi passport) Hariri in a KSA prison Hezbollah may gain influence. 

Korea:


US

http://unfccc.int/meetings/bonn_nov_2017/meeting/10084.php Trump wants to give up the Iran-deal, the Paris climate agreement etc. Internationaly things do not work that way. Many countries are accepting a need to co-operate. Giving up on the outcome of years of negotiations (by the US) is an insult for most other "partners"; isolating the US even further. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 07 2017 at 9:37pm
Since this story involves Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and effects global affairs;

http://theduran.com/leaked-cable-confirms-israel-and-saudi-arabia-coordination-to-start-a-middle-east-war/ After the arrest of Lebanon PM Hariri-a saudi bussinessman as well-both Israel and KSA started a campain to blame Iran. 
http://thesaker.is/the-inside-story-of-the-saudi-night-of-long-knives/ The powergrab of MSB may cause a civil war in KSA (and explain why oil-prices go up around the world). 

https://www.facebook.com/pepe.escobar.77377 is on top of this story. It is unclear what KSA is going to do. Does it go with the US and Israel-start a war with Iran, or is it turning towards Russia, China ? 

The Saudi royals-and there are several thousends of members-claim to own Saudi Arabia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Saud

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lW8e_TBDrNM Israeli News Live; US about to start war with Iran.
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/11/defeated-elsewhere-saudi-ruler-declares-war-on-lebanon.html (Also about Trump son-in-law Kushner's role, DJ the Saudi story reminds me of the Roman emperor Caligula, MSB robbed 7% of the KSA GDP in one weekend. )
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 07 2017 at 9:45pm
Thanks, Dutch Josh, good reporting!  This is not being covered much in US media, as the focus is upon Pres. Trump and his activities. 

Today is one year of President Trump!  Cry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 07 2017 at 10:18pm
CRS, DrPH, 

Thanks. An understatement; "there were some doubts about Trump being able to make good foreign policy decisions". "The west" has made stupid mistakes since the fall of "the east" in 1989/90. The Warsaw-pact ended, NATO moved east. Several wars since that time can be blamed on that western policy, from Yugoslavia to Syria. You ara then talking about millions of lives lost, "zillions" of US$. € etc being spent on military while it should heve been spent on education, healthcare, energy-efficency etc. 

It may go a bit to far to claim that after 1990 the "west" destroyed the globe-but it is less far of than I like. 

The "press" in the west is mostly failing to report the insane situation the world is in now. From climate change, radiation to war, overpopulation, our time is running out. But "media" is looking the other way. Are humans an insane species ? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 08 2017 at 12:02am
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

CRS, DrPH, 

Thanks. An understatement; "there were some doubts about Trump being able to make good foreign policy decisions". "The west" has made stupid mistakes since the fall of "the east" in 1989/90. The Warsaw-pact ended, NATO moved east. Several wars since that time can be blamed on that western policy, from Yugoslavia to Syria. You ara then talking about millions of lives lost, "zillions" of US$. € etc being spent on military while it should heve been spent on education, healthcare, energy-efficency etc. 

It may go a bit to far to claim that after 1990 the "west" destroyed the globe-but it is less far of than I like. 

The "press" in the west is mostly failing to report the insane situation the world is in now. From climate change, radiation to war, overpopulation, our time is running out. But "media" is looking the other way. Are humans an insane species ? 

Good points, all!  

I was a Reagan/Bush Republican during the Cold War, and was pleased when the Berlin Wall fell.  However, I agree that the expansion of NATO into former Soviet client states (Poland, Czech Republic etc.) was unnecessary and provocative to the Russians.  Imagine how Americans would have felt if Russia mobilized troops into Canada and Mexico?  

Putin hates the US and West for helping to foment the dissolution of the USSR, so we are back to a solid Cold War footing.  I had once advocated a strong West/Russia alliance (I called it "USSA"!), and we have many areas to collaborate including solving climate change, building a large base on the moon as a stepping stone to further space adventures etc.  In many ways, Russia would seem to be a good partner for the West, if we can get rid of the animosity. 

However, I don't see that happening while Putin is in power.  Pity, we are wasting a historic moment. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 08 2017 at 12:49am
I think at the end we have no choice. "United we stand, divided we fall" as humans. 

Abrupt exponential sealevelrise-in my opinion-is becoming unavoidable by now. (The IPCC once came with their expectation of 1 meter sealevelrise by 2100, with more after that "magical"year-even that is totally unacceptable. The melt of ice in the(Ant)Arctic, expansion of water due to warming, will bring the 1 meter sealevelrise by 2040 ? Also "abrupt" because of mega-storms and "rivers in the sky" will bring the sea/ocean in places within a few hours-it will not al go smoothly.)

On the "war-front" Israeli https://www.debka.com/iran-threatens-hit-saudi-abu-dhabi-dubai-air-sea-ports-ships-missiles-yemeni-houthis/. (Other sources point out that the Yemen Army-KSA is fighting that army-is capable of modernizing Scuds themselves-they do not need Iran for that.)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 08 2017 at 4:48am
http://theduran.com/turkeys-president-erdogan-visit-qatar-next-week-amid-saudi-crisis/
Since the Saudi's threatened Qatar for "supporting terrorism" this summer Turkey stationed troops in Qatar. Qatar exploits a gasfield with Iran something Israel, KSA and the US do not like. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident A possible scenario could be an Israeli submarine firing scud-like missiles from Yemen coastal area at KSA (why not Mecca and Medina region ?) and KSA blaming Iran for that. KSA would "react" by attacking Iran before the world has a chance to realize they are being fooled. 

Further escalation could be "Iran missiles on Israel" (by Israel) so both Israel and the US can "defend world peace" against "Iranian agression". https://sputniknews.com/politics/201708051056203777-russia-iran-military-cooperation/ https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/01/22/russia-iran-military-cooperation-agreement-step-strategic-cooperation.html

Israel has nuclear weapons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel#Stockpile all aimed at Iran. 

Another possible scenario is Israel attcking Hezbollah in Lebanon and (via Lebanese airspace) Syria. Israel has done this earlier several times.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 08 2017 at 11:34pm
Of course starting a major war is a big investment. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjJ1cjzgttg AT&T provided the nazi's with telecom, Standard Oil worked with IG Farben (now BASF), Royal Dutch Shell provided fuel for nazi tanks build by Ford. So this should not surprise anybody; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-08/real-motive-behind-saudi-purge-emerges-800-billion-confiscated-assets

To fight a war you need oil. When you can use nazi's for that goal you use nazi's to invade the Soviet Union. When you have to create IS for that goal you do so. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-08/how-broke-house-saud The 15.000 Saudi "royals"are running out of money. Behind the scenes some major "investors" will be welcoming this oppertunity to take over the Saudi oil industry. Behind the scene United Arab Emirates is running the show. In Dubai; "If you’re planning to visit the oh sooooo civilized new Louvre in Abu Dhabi there’s a few things you need to know.

No amount of slick P.R. in D.C. or suave lobbying by UAE ambassador Otaiba masks the fact the UAE is the most corrupt country on earth, hands down.

More corrupt than Nigeria – and no offense to the Nigerians.

There are auctions in Dubai of kidnapped Eastern European pre-pubescent girls; take that, “progressives” horrified by the Weinstein saga.

The Taliban for years were supplied on everything out of Dubai.

And the UAE is the largest heroin laundry operation on the planet - cleansing Afghani heroin money.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-08/saudi-purge-middle-east-verge-new-war Many "leaders" have lost support and need enemies so "the nation"gets united again against a made up foe. "War is business". 


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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