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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Aussie Flu.

War on the horizon

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 21 2017 at 11:01pm
https://www.rt.com/news/410544-trump-putin-assad-phone-call/ and https://www.debka.com/mivzak/putin-calls-netanyahu-discuss-syria-iran/

DJ; Putin trying to get a grip on the Middle East with (long) phonecalls with AlSisi from Egypt, Salman from KSA, Netayahu from Israel, Trump from US. Today there will be a meeting of Russia, Iran and Turkey. 

What to expect:
-Integrety of both Syria and Iraq means minorities (Kurds, Turkmen etc.) will have to accept not getting a "Kurdistan". (DJ-some Kurdish groups worked with IS-oil-transport financed IS)
-political reforms in Syria (could mean that Assad will see his time as president limited-Turkey want him out a. o,)
-Presence of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria and Iraq after the war against IS and other "groups". 

Putin would like to make a "peaceproces" in the Middle East his successtory. It may open doors (further) to North Africa (Egypt-Libya maybe even further Mali, Nigeria ?) and central Asia (Afghanistan, Kashmir ?). Russia and China want "good working relations"with both the EU and US.

Israel and KSA can not start a war with Lebanon when there are better options.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2017 at 1:03pm
https://www.rt.com/news/410645-putin-turkey-iran-syria-talks/, http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/11/22/543113/Iran-Russia-Turkey-Syria-talks-Daesh,

DJ-It is nice when three countries agree on "peace in Syria" but all those three countries have their own agenda. (Turkey wants to "limit"the Kurds, Iran would like to have a land-link to Lebanon/mediterrean ports, Russia is interested on long term influence in the region-and oil.)

https://www.debka.com/no-headway-putin-netanyahu-conversation-iran-hizballah-removal-golan-border/ DJ-There is still a major risk of false flags/accidents/escalations. Will there be an increase of "civil unrest" in KSA, Israel, Gulf States ? 

On the longer term chances for a nuclear war increase. More countries want nuclear weapons, those weapons may become "better in usage" and "anti-missile shields" may cause that some countries simply want to be able to fire more missiles. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-21/doomsday-scenarios-uks-hair-raising-admissions-about-prospects-nuclear-war-or-accide DJ-than there is also the "nuclear winter scenario" to "slow down" global warming. This "medication" may be worse than the illness itself. 
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 hours 21 minutes ago at 3:39am
DJ; The "war-of-words" in/about the Middle East and "action" is escalating.




DJ; Saudi Arabia has organized a meeting for "Syrian opposition groups", the US wants to stay in Syria to fight IS, Turkey wants to fight the Kurds (and in the past used IS for the dirty work), some kurds are also IS members-both Kurds and IS get funding, weapons, intel from Saudi Arabia, Israel, US. 

In my opinion the war in the Middle East may move into a new phase. The US-KSA-Israel coalition want to continu their fight against Iran and Russia. They will create IS.2 (of course has nothingh to do with Islam) to provide an excuse. Turkey has enough trouble with the Kurds inside Turkey itself-may welcome support in fighting Kurds in Syria, Iraq, Iran (and go for the plan that best suites them-switch partners again when needed). 

Russia and Iran would like to have talks for their "peace"(=their victory)-but KSA-US-Israel do not accept that. 

Options:
-Russia-Iran could try to get Israel, KSA, US (or one or two of them) "on the table". When that does not work out:
-stop pulling Russian, Iranian forces from Syria (and Iraq)
-deal with any kind of "new IS" without any mercy.
-KSA does want a war with Iran on Iran soil. Iran will seek further cooperation with Russia and China to limit possibilities. 

DJ-In a very worse case scenario the US would start large scale military action against Iran and North Korea at the same time. "First strike as a surprise". Goal would be: -destroy Iran North Korea
-make a point to Russia, China "US is the only superpower" . Such a major step is unacceptable for Russia and China.


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 hours 41 minutes ago at 8:19am
DJ; Most likely IS was behind the attack in norther Sinai-Ehypt killing over 235 people. 



IS in Syria/Iraq had support from KSA/Gulf States, Israel and US. In Egypt IS did bring down a Russian plane https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metrojet_Flight_9268 in october 2015. 

When Egypt would start to believe IS gets support from outside this will effect their foreign policy. (DJ-they could ask Russia for help against IS in the Sinai)
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 9 hours 10 minutes ago at 10:50am
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/282146/Egypt/Politics-/Military-operation-underway-against-North-Sinai-mo.aspx



While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, terrorists once loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood who have recently declared loyalty to ISIS, are thought to be behind the mass slaughter. Beginning in 2013, when Egypt overthrow a Muslim Brotherhood regime, supporters of the illegal group fled to the Sinai Peninsula which borders the Egypt-Israel border. Today’s attack took place not far from known terrorist enclaves.

Egypt has recently been at war on three fronts. Firstly, Takfiri terrorists from neighbouring Libya have been conspiring to commit attacks on Egyptian soil along with Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS sleepers in central Egypt. The final front includes the terrorists who have set up base in the Sinai Peninsula.

Egypt’s support for the secular Libyan House of Repetitiveness and the allied Libyan National Army have played a large part in stemming the tide of attacks from Libya. Because of this, it is now accurate to state that terrorists in Sinai, including those who have escaped from Syria and Iraq via friendly third countries, post the greatest danger to Egypt’s national security.

Because the mosque was home to worshippers form the Sufi branch of Islam, it is widely believed that it was targeted due to what Takfiri terrorists believe to be the heterodox nature of Sufism.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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