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War on the horizon

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2018 at 9:33pm
DJ-Just like Turkey is more likely to leave NATO than NATO putting Turkey out-Turkey is much to strategic, bordering Iran, Syria, Black Sea, second largest army (after US)-a T-exit-Turkish exit out of NATO-would be even worse (for NATO) than the BR-exit is for the EU.

Also Syrian forces getting out of Afrin-NW Syria-is very unlikely. Syria does see Afrin as part of Syria-Turkey is the invader. Although Syrian-Kurdish talks did not bring Kurdish forces under Syrian (Assad) control-the YPG-Kurds giving access to pro-Assad forces is much to valuable for Damascus. When pro-Assad forces show themselves as "good friends of the Syrian Kurds"-pro-Assad forces may show up (maybe just for a short term, as advisor, giving aid etc.) in other YPG-held area's.

DJ Some remarks:

-Since there are over 30 milion Kurds Kurds can be found on all sides in this conflict. A few Kurds joint IS, quite a lot of them might be in pro-Assad forces. (Also forces from Iraq, Iran-even Russia could include Kurds).
-In the Syria conflict Kurds and pro-Assad forces most of the time did not fight eachother, but did fight with IS, "moderate western backed jihadi-terrorists". The Kurds claim they had to organize themselves in defense against IS. (Kurds and muslim-extremists do not mix. Kurds have several religions, christian,(Yezidi) to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoroastrianism)
-Syria itself had a small Kurdish minority. Since the Kurds see "Kurdistan" as their country a lot of the Kurds in Syria may not come from Syria but are defending Kurdistan. 

East Damascus

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/senseless-human-suffering-east-ghouta-180220064101130.html Urban warfare is a horror for civilians. The "western main-stream-media" are still producing the "bad-Assad/bad-Russia-story" and ignoring who paid IS, other terrorist groups/"moderate rebels". 

It is very difficult-so far-to get a clear view of what is going on in several parts in/on Syria at this moment. Both for fighting and for talking.

Most likely Russia and Iran are having talks with both Turkey and Syria to avoid a Turkish-Syrian war. Russia is selling-on credit-S400 missiles to Turkey, did invest in Turk-stream gasline. Russia does have the exploration-rights for Syrian oil and gas. Both Iran and Russia need Turkey to limit the US and Israel.
Turkey now moving to US/NATO would end Russia's/Iran's dream of being in control of the Middle East-would also damage Putin's plans for his march-re-election. 

Erdogan has limited room to move. The US wants to get rid of him. The EU is-at this moment-not very interested in a Turkey membership. (Even if it would bring Turkey back to the west-political climate in the EU does not allow a Turkish EU membership). Russia still has to deliver the S-400, and a oil/gas pipeline is under construction and can be shut of. Iran and Turkey both have a large Kurdish community-a conflict with Iran would make Turkish internal problem with the Kurds even larger.

DJ-I expect a sort of ceasefire in Afrin. Turkey did gain a lot of land the last few days. The YPG-Kurds in Afrin may have been close to collapse and encirclement. Turkey now has a good position for talks (with Russia-via them with Assad. (DJ-Jordan has better relations with Assad then Turkey !) Russia does want the Syrian-Kurds under Assad/Syria control.

The US (France, Israel, others) may start major action when the rebels release gas/chemical weapons and "the west"blaimes Assad for it (again). But that would bring an "East" (Russia, Iran, most likely China)-"West" (NATO, some Gulf States, Israel) conflict wich would be hard to contain. 

Russia complaining on EU moving into the Balkan/SE Europe-of course Russia could/should do a better offer (then the EU would complain). Turkey and Iran may soon be joining al kind of deals with Russia and China. 

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201802211061850434-iran-threatens-israel-drone-downing/ DJ The Israel(US)-Iran relation is part of the war in Syria-one of the many reasons why this war might "explode" into a conflict that brings war from Turkey (Cyprus, Greece ?) to Pakistan, Somalia, North Africa.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2018 at 11:48pm
Korea


China


Afghanistan


Iraq


Philippines

DJ-Duterte-will US plan coup ?

Syria


International


Secret wars

DJ-The main "thing"with "secret wars" is that they are secret-but in time enough gets out to get a bigger picture. Also goals are often quite clear. So it is a jigsaw-puzzle, connect-the-dots-drawing.

"The West" is not a country but via NATO, ASEAN, etc. groups of countries united on certain goals. The US is dominating these organizations, also main supplier of weapons, (satelite)info, etc. Other countries have (very) limited room for their own actions. (Israel active above Syria means US is allowing this-if not even ordening it.)

With Russia and China working (very close) together and "New Silk Road"plans the US global dominance is "under pressure" more than ever before. This dominance is based on the US military being all over the globe. Also economically the US wants to control energy and financial markets (US-petro-dollar, SWIFT).

To keep Russia and China from moving to the Middle East, to get Iran under "control" US is moving IS fighters from Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan (and Libya). The US (via a.o. Israel) is trying to get the Kurds under control (Kurdish/Iraq-Syria oil ends up in Israel).

From the EU-via Ukraine, Georgia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%E2%80%93NATO_relations, Azerbaijan, to the Pakistan-India-China border https://asia.liveuamap.com/en/2018/20-february-stratfor-according-to-reports-indias-army-chief area a "western shield" is being made. 


This containment-cold war-strategy needs US forces in positions to avoid "enemy" forces to take over those positions. The US is in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan-to avoid Russia/China getting there. When you mix this "way-of-thinking"with the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domino_theory "War=Peace" under US-rules.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2018 at 6:49am
Syria

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201802211061854367-syrian-army-entry-afrin-turkey-warning/, https://sana.sy/en/?p=127995 DJ-Turkey having talks with Russia and Iran (DJ-proberbly Turkey wants to avoid a Turkey-Syria war-the US/Israel would welcome a war between Turkey and Syria/Iran) Turkey claims no pro-Assad forces in Afrin https://www.rt.com/news/419412-syria-convoy-afrin-retreated/


US


Iraq


Iran


China-India

(DJ-Growing risk of conflict between India (and US) and China (Pakistan, Iran, Russia).

Israel


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2018 at 9:15pm
The Final Battle ?

(DJ-When it sounds dramatic it is because the global situation IS dramatic)

An overview;

-T-exit, Turkey out of NATO is out of any question for the US/NATO, rather a new try on getting rid of Erdogan (bringing in "foreign Turks"), Turkey may be slipping into a not-wanted war with Syria. (The US and Israel would welcome a war between Turkey and Iran, Russia-US/Israel may try to create such a war)
-Syria http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/2104-ultimatum-russia-warns-saudis-pull-forces-out-of-ghouta-syria-or-it-will-be-be-obliterated-grozny-style Russia, Iran want to restore Syria as a state. The US wants to split up Syria-US being in Syria (Iraq, Afghanistan) to stop Russia/China from taking over the Middle East
-Afghanistan; Russia claims the US is transporting IS fighters into Afghanistan-to threaten Russia, Iran, China, Pakistan-those group of 4 may be planning to "get a grip" on Afghanistan. (China already working on a military base to stop IS fighters moving into China)
-many other conflicts;
-Israel-Gaza
-Egypt-Sinaï/Libya
-Chad, Mali, (South)Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia (China, Turkey, Russia trying to get military bases, UN peace-keeping-wars spilling over into Kenya, Nigeria)
-Iraq (US presence there means US creating reasons to stay in Iraq)
-Yemen (US backed Saudi genocide-with UAE/Sudan doing a lot of the fighting-Pakistan support for Saudis)
-Pakistan/China-India; disagreement on Kashmir/Himalaya-states, Indian ocean (etc) https://southfront.org/india-build-major-overseas-military-base-off-africa-combat-china/
-Myamar(Burma/Birma)-Bangla Desh (Rohingya's, Muslim refugees from Myamar)
-Korea (US-China)

The basics is the "old"East-West conflict (in fact going back to the 18th/19th century with the US moving west, Russia moving east-up into Alaska/Russian America). China being "new" in this conflict.

The US will not give up its position as THE dominant nation. The US want control of (all-when possible) oil and gas in the world. Russia and China challenge that US-position. The situation in Syria may cause a (final) spark in this global powder keg. 

The US has had a central-Asia corridor to keep Russia and China from the Middle East. (http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/02/21/553159/Iran-Azerbaijan-Amir-Hatami-Zakir-Hasanov-Aliyev-Karabakh) That corridor is now collapsing (Pakistan working with China, Ukraine out of control, Turkey working with Iran etc.) The US claims "moral superiority" with "bad-Putin, bad-Assad, bad-China-sanctions-storiers"and mass-media not pointing to the risks of a third world war. (http://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/02/russian-bots-how-an-anti-russian-lobby-creates-fake-news.html Mass-media has become part of the problem-again.)

DJ-Even if Saudi Arabia stops supporting it's rebels in Syria the international situation may have crossed a point of no-return. 

(Not "new" but a good summary of US-created mess in Syria/Middle East. from the comments (see also http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/02/21/553183/russia-unsc-syria-ghouta-nebenzia-Russia-"moderate US backed rebels" keeping civilians hostage in Eastern Ghouta)

Eric Zuess points to the various names which CIA gives their proxies to hide the fact they are all on the CIA Al’Qaeda payroll. Analyst Canthama supplies a breakdown of the named groups in E.Goutah, and predicts a tough battle. From SyrPer 5hr ago.

“.. most of them are Syrians but there many Arabs from MENA. The issue in Ghouta is the … siege and most civilians under hostage situation, they are forced to fight for the terrorists. The different groups inside East Ghouta are as follows; all of them are WahhaBeasts, hardcore salafists, extreme radicals, the lot.

1) ISIS doing a job for US/Israel in the Palestinian refugee camp in Yarmourk camp. I mean, this very ISIS group is mostly Hamas Palestinians (one main reason Syria is not mending ties with Hamas after they betrayed Syria in 2011 and were kicked out of Qatar in 2017). This ISIS group is Hamas political branch and has deep ties to Mossad. Hamas military branch [on the other hand] is resistance [to Israel].
2) JIA (Alloush’s gang) has deep ties with KSA, there are several Arabs here from all sort of MENA countries.This group continues to be the largest.
3) Ahrar al-Sham – deeply connect to Turkey and Qatar but also with ties to KSA, this is the most effective terrorists group in Ghouta, lots of ex SAA.
4) HTS – Al Qaeda, this Ghouta branch is linked to KSA and Turkey.
5) Al-Rahman Legion, mostly funded by Qatar, they are a mixed bag of many factions that changed sides since 2015.”

[I am not interested in these nomenclatural niceties. They are all terrorists taking up arms against a democratic government].

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 1:44am
Syria-escalation


DJ-Russia is sending a clear message with these planes-no further attacks-take Russia serious. These aircraft are coming after several (by-proxy) US attacks on Russian targets in Syria the last two months.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-21/syrias-afrin-move-artful-assistance-allies-or-armageddon-making DJ-Russia and Syria not on full agreement on some issues ? In my opinion both want "all of Syria" under Assad control. (This may-at some point even include (parts of) the Golan heights-as a Damascus safety-zone). 

http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/22-february-syrian-observatory-syrian-forces-enter-kurdishcontrolled Pro-Assad forces moving into Kurdish held area of Aleppo (as part of a Kurdish-Syria deal ?-if not Kurds and Syria cooperation may run into a major problem.)

DJ-Russia did get a (sort of) cease fire in Afrin. The Kurds did not want to fight Turkish tanks in urban warfare-Turkey did not want Russia shooting at their planes...

In Eastern Ghouta http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/demands-halt-monstrous-campaign-syrian-town-180221183144792.html (DJ-IS/alquada"rabels" shell Damascus killing civilians daily, terrorize the local population.-all this is not in the MSM)https://southfront.org/russian-reconciliation-center-opposition-forces-hindering-evacuation-of-civilians-from-eastern-ghouta/ and https://southfront.org/heavy-clashes-between-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-and-syrian-liberation-front-in-idlib-and-aleppo-videos/-DJ South of Afrin in NW Syria "rebels" are fighting eachother. Both in Idlib and Eastern Ghouta there is a real risk of chemical weapons being used by the "rebels"-for wich the west will blame Assad.


Yemen


Iran


Pakistan/India

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 5:58am
Escalation Middle East

Syria

-Afrin-http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/22-february-russian-chechen-military-police-spotted-on-road DJ-Chechen-Russia MP in Afrin region to oversee situation. (Chechen are Sunni-muslim, were able to get good contacts with fellow Sunni-muslims-might help for contact with Turkey (also most Sunni-muslim). https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/22-february-n-aleppo-convoy-of-assad-forces-not-anymore-irgclinked Third pro-Assad convoy on its way to Afrin.
Iran

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/48846.htm US ultimatum on Iran-making nuclear deal unacceptable for Iran and than blame Iran...

Russia-US


other



Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 hours 47 minutes ago at 10:13pm
US-regime change agenda

Of course blaming Russia, Iran, Syria etc for agression while the US is planning regime changes all around the globe makes clear where the problem is...the US "deep state" and its co-workers around the globe bring the world close to (very) major conflict.

US want regime change in:

-Syria, US (a.o.) did arm "rebels", from wahabi's/salafist extremists to minorities like Turkmen and Kurds.
-Iran, the US is making the nuclear deal unworkable for Iran https://www.rt.com/newsline/419583-iran-nuclear-deal-banks/
-Venezuela
-North Korea (after the winter olympics again US warplans ?)
-Russia
-China

Regime change in Libya, Iraq, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Ukraine did bring chaos to those countries but "cheap oil/gas" for western companies. 


Syria

In NW Syria http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/22-february-the-rest-of-the-convoy-that-was-hit-by-turkish and http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/2111-turkish-army-loots-tractor-shoots-farmer-dead-video Turkey is involved in war-crimes against Kurds. The same crimes Turkey was doing to Kurds inside Turkey for decades with NATO-support. 

In East Ghouta http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/02/23/553289/Araqchi-Iran-Syria-Ghouta-Damascus 400.000 people are kept hostage by western supported "wahibi rebels" (IS/alquada).
https://www.rt.com/news/419618-syria-ghouta-distorted-coverage/ Those "rebels" terrorize the population, fire with mortars on Damascus killing hundreds of civilians there as well. 

Most likely the US/NATO will come to help those "rebels". Syria, like Iraq, Libya-once had (for the region) good healthcare, housing, education for most. The "west" is destroying all that for oil and profit for a few.

Media

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/02/23/553297/Is-US-Deep-State-targeting-alternative-media DJ-Around the globe bringing news on conflicts, climate change etc. is made "difficult/impossible" by YouTube, Facebook, MSM-giants. The official story is the absolute thruth-we are moving into a "totalitarian democracy" with no room for alternative views. 

This tendency will go further-having a different opinion may mean ending up in exclusion.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 4 hours 22 minutes ago at 6:38am
Global War

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV17AW65uLU Israeli News Live-US moving air-defense to the north of Israel.
(DJ-Hal Turner a.o. been warning for US attacks at North Korea before end of march)https://sputniknews.com/us/201802231061932109-trump-us-sanctions-nort-korea/)
(DJ-IS runs internet casino's, proberbly involved in drugs/slave-trade-could become an "Islamic maffia".)

DJ-Turkey is a NATO-member and a questionmark in the Syria-conflict. It could be part of a strategy to pull NATO into the Syria-war. In Israel preparations for a two-front war are being made. If Russia did put an ultimatum on the US to leave eastern Syria-the US may have decided "to go to war".

US may want to confront Russia, Israel wants to confront Iran and Hezbollah-for the moment in Syria/Lebanon.

DJ-It looks like a old fashioned western with two cowboys confronting eachother-who will pull the trigger the fastest ? Only this is not the "Wild-US-West" but western Asia-with most likely global consequences. 



Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 1 hour 54 minutes ago at 9:06am
Syria

https://sana.sy/en/?p=128290 (more or less same as https://www.gelderlander.nl/buitenland/8-miljoen-burgers-in-damascus-bedreigd-door-terroristen~a19dc7e8/ in Dutch) 8 milion Syrians kept hostage by "rebels"even UN sees as terrorists. Still in the propaganda war http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/die-400-killed-eastern-ghouta-180222145312233.html of course children are used. 
The US keeps supporting alquada(linked) groups in Syria.
DJ-http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/23-february-armed-opposition-factions-in-ghouta-the-governments groundoperations still have to start to take over terrorist held area's. Like in Aleppo "the west" may have "military" embedded with "rebels"-so they have to get out. Will the US attack when groundoperations start in Damascus area ? Will (tomorrow-they did two weeks ago) Israel attack Iran targets-reclaim access to Syria airspace ? (For both the US and Israel the de-facto-Russian made no-fly zone above Syria must be unacceptable.)

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/23-february-hts-believes-that-turkeybacked-fsa-will-be-coming, https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/23-february-greater-idlib-repel-the-invaders-operation-room DJ-Idlib region-south of Afrin-is involved both in East Ghouta-battle and Afrin-operation. Turkey distancing itself from Iran and Russia-may move south to Idlib (to support pro-Turkish "rebels" fighting US/Saudi backed rebels in the region). 

Iraq

DJ-US does not want Iraq to buy Russian S-400

Saudi Arabia/Iran

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/iran-warns-nuclear-crisis-jcpoa-deal-scrapped-180222125809339.html DJ-The US want Iran to stop building missiles for medium range. De facto US wants Saudi Arabia and Israel to dominate the Middle East (for US interests).


Israel


Latin America


Russia


Korea

Moon and Ivanka Trump both want peace. https://koreas.liveuamap.com/en/2018/23-february-two-koreas-to-hold-talks-next-tuesday-over-north Korea-joint paralympics ?

DJ-Further escalation in Syria may be a matter of hours. Pro-Assad forces moving into East Ghouta area (with Russian airdefense) is quite likely to happen soon. Turkish actions in NW Syria may become a-as good as-Syria/Turkey war. 

February 25 ends the Korea winter olympics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics The US has its warplans for North Korea. (Ignoring Russia/China views).
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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