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warning for major conflict

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 16 2018 at 9:39am
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2018 at 11:14am
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2018 at 12:43pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2018 at 12:59pm
From Hal Turner

UPDATE 1:36 PM EDT --

France confirms they have made a request to the USA and NATO allies about joint strikes on Syria in relation to alleged chlorine attacks by Assad. Thus, it appears that whatever is being set-up,  its likely in response to French requests.

 

UPDATE 1:45 PM EDT --

I can now confirm USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT aircraft carrier, along with its strike group taken battle positions in the Persian Gulf.

In the Mediterranean Sea, the US 6th Fleet has deployed surface ships and submarine units.

4 US ships:  USS Oak Hill, Iwo Jima, USS New York, USNS William Mclean

 

UPDATE 1:50 PM EDT --

ANDY BLUMENTHAL HAS JUST TWEETED AND PRETTY MUCH GIVEN THE WHOLE THING AWAY:

Blumenthal is Deputy Chief Operating Officer at the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response. Previously, served progressively as Chief Information Officer, U.S. Department of State, Global Information Services; Chief Technology Officer, U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms & Explosives; and Chief Enterprise Architect, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Coast Guard and Secret Service.

 Here is what Bloomenthal says, in it's entirety:

 

 

If any of you could not figure out from the details above that the U.S. will attack Syria IMMINENTLY, this info from a guy inside the US government should remove all doubt.



UPDATE 2:05 PM EDT --

A 30 character EAM was just broadcast on 8992.0     "EAM" means "Emergency Action Message" sent by the United States to certain military assets worldwide.  An EAM is a "drop whatever you're doing and do this first" type of message transmitted over the Global High Frequency Radio Network.

 

UPDATE 2:48 PM EDT -- 

The vessels mentioned above in the Update at 1:45 PM EDT, are all amphibious assault ships or their support ships. Meaning the potential of thousands of Marines are awaiting landing on Syria's coastline along with their tanks APCs artillery and all the hell that comes with Marines right after the potential air attacks from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.

Problem with this is Russians have large naval army and air assets at several bases Kmeimin and Tartus on the coast. If these air attacks take place and the Russians shoot them down. That's it -- there is no going back.

This will accelerate at break neck speed into chaos.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2018 at 2:39pm
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/975113984054579201
https://www.facebook.com/HalTurnerShow/

No real further confirmations-maybe stays limited ?

(DJ-Worst case is Turkey moving in NE Syria with help FSA/US, NATO forces from Jordan/Israel moving north to Damascus/Southern half Syria. Also actions against Iran/Hezbollah-but still no confirmation on this-hope it stays limited)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2018 at 7:37pm
Looks very serious-still unconfirmed



UPDATE 3:53 PM EDT --

From Greek News Service (Translated via Google)

‘While the maps depicting cruise missile routes of an American attack on Syria from the Mediterranean-Red-Persian Gulf (central photo) have already been released, Russia has already received the first attack on the Khmeimim air base. Russian air raids have broken one or more unknown objects, probably drone, which recorded the Russian movements’

US forces sent naval and air forces to control the region in the Mediterranean Sea, Jordan, Turkey, Cyprus and Iraq.
The situation around Syria continues to "boil" very dangerously.
The media do not officially give all the information related to the confrontation between Russia and the United States ... obviously not to cause panic.

 

 

UPDATE  5:43 PM EDT  *** BREAKING **** URGENT ***

The Russian Chief of Staff has been officially informed by the United States of America that it would conduct military operations in Damascus within 48 hours.

Russia has informed Iran of this and Iran is moving anti-ship missile batteries to the mouth of the Persian Gulf.  The USS Theodore Roosevelt and its strike group may not get out of the Persian Gulf alive.

 

VIDEO: RUSSIA TELLS U.S. NO MORE ATTACKS OR FACE MILITARY RESPONSE FROM RUSSIA

From the video:  "Syrian Army won, they absolutely have no reason to use chemical weapons. They didn't use when they needed it the most (before Russian help came) and was almost losing the war. Why should they use when they are winning hard and doing mop up operations in some non important parts of the country?

 Russia basically saying US to not do this -but US doesn't listen and will strike anyway. This time Russia will answer by using military means.

 

UPDATE

Here's a map of what is located where in terms of U.S. and NATO naval deployments. (Click image to enlarge)

 Look at all the guided-missile destroyers sit off the coast.

And, USS John Warner (SSN-785):


From wiki:
"This ship is the second of the Block III subs, which will have a revised bow and some technology from Ohio-class cruise missile submarines.[6] The vessel supports 40 weapons, special operations forces, unmanned undersea vehicles, Advanced SEAL Delivery System (ASDS)."

 

UPDATE 6:30 PM EDT --

Multiple reports of B2 Stealth Aircraft taking off from Whiteman AFB

UPDATE 7:00 PM EDT --

 UN officials have been advised to leave Damascus urgently.


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2018 at 12:40am
No further Hal Turner-updates, also Defcon no real news-yet. 

Other warnings from Israeli News Live https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mahydXnW3Kc&t=62s



DJ-Is it all a big bluf-putting pressure on Russia ? Are there talks, demands from US/NATO ? When Syria-escalation is part of influencing Russian elections one would expect more media coverage. 

Israel bombed the Gaza-strip, most likely a Russian airbase in Syria was attacked by drones, there is a build-up of forces in the area-but that-for now-is it. Bombers may be moving towards Syria, left the US, be in the UK, Turkey, a.o. now. 

I hope some people-in-position realize what kind of conflict could start and think twice. It would not stay in Syria, Iran, Russia most likely will respond outside Syria-or be attacked. 

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2018 at 4:30am
Yes, you are right there and it is very, very scary. 

I think our government is doing things right though.  To not 'create a stink' over this is to effectively sanction further attacks.  Putin does like to test the water: when no sharks bite, he wades deeper.  I think that is all part of the Russian "Strong man for leader" thinking.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2018 at 6:18am
Techno, my impression/speculation is that : 
A-The "west" (US-led coalition, Gulf States, Israel) did put "maximum pressure" on the pro-Assad coalition (and maybe also Turkey-Exxon wanted the US 6th fleet to secure oil-drills for the Greek-Cyprus coast on wich Turkey also puts a claim). The timing-Russian elections/Putin re-elected-is no coincidence.  
B-Diplomacy or "other events"(electronic warfare-did Russia show (again-they may have done it in theBlack Sea some time ago) they could make the electricity on a ship stop working ? Did China (Iran, others Pakistan, Turkey. Philipines) give some sort of warning to the US ? Did Russia tell very bluntly-if you shoot we shoot and the US will loose more military in the first hour than they did in Viet Nam ?)

That the confrontation did not start yet does not mean it will not start.

Russia may use long range missiles against US ships in the Middle East. In such a scenario things may get out of control very fast. (And it does not matter any longer who is wrong or right.)

https://www.rt.com/uk/421625-skripal-evidence-opcw-johnson/ DJ-I hope the OPCW can proof its use in the Skripal case. 

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2018 at 7:19am
http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/2228-cruise-missile-strike-groups-in-east-mediterranean-persian-gulf-and-red-sea-for-possible-strike-at-syria

SUNDAY 18 MARCH 2018 :9:06 AM EDT --

firstly it is CONFIRMED that France is requesting journalists to leave Syria. It is also CONFIRMED that the UN have been asked to move from Damascus.

France CONFIRMED they HAVE asked to form a coalition to strike the Assad regime in response to chlorine attacks.

It is DISPUTED that the US have informed Russia of any strikes in Syria at this time. Normal procedure is to give the Russian's about 1 hour warning. There has been no warning yet.

The carrier group in the region is on usual station; it is supposed to be there. That said, it is CONFIRMED that cruise missile equipped ships are indeed positioning in various places.

It is also CONFIRMED there has been some deployment of bomber aircraft out of the USA.

In sum, there is certainly some prep work going on but I don't think the go signal has been given yet. That said, plenty of pieces moving on the board.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2018 at 9:46pm
Build-up of forces in Middle East goes on;


DJ-The mix of several conflicts Iran with Saudi Arabia, Israel, Russia-NATO, maybe even Turkey expansionism can be a mechanism that is out of control. When you control one conflict in one area another conflict elsewere escalates. Not even to mention Korea or Kashmir-India-China-Pakistan, South China Sea. In my opinion this is about survival of mankind. Can we solve conflicts without violence or will those conflicts solve "us" in violence ?

UPDATE SUN. 18 MARCH 3:57 PM EDT --

Below is map showing the previous deployment of forces in the eastern Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Syria in 2013.  I am told that the PRESENT deployment is larger and that "this is an explosion waiting to happen . . ."

 A total of five Russian warships, frigates and corvettes, two refueling ships, an electronic escort ship and three submarines equipped with cruise missiles (conventional propulsion but two of the new Kilo II class) are currently east of Crete.

 

UPDATE Sunday 18 March 9:02 PM EDT --

Three NATO Naval Exercises Completing; Will add 13 Ships and six Subs off Syria Coast Monday

-

With tensions rising quickly over actions taking place inside Syria, the US began positioning naval assets in the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, leading Russian military spokesmen to say they believe the US is planning another missile attack upon Syria.  Russia directly warned the US not to undertake another attack, making clear Russia would shoot down any missiles and attack any platform which launched them (i.e. ships).

But it appears the US has a little surprise for Russia; three NATO naval exercises have just finished in or near the Mediterranean and as of Monday, another thirteen NATO warships and six NATO submarines will be conveniently located about 20 hours away from the Syrian coastline.

NATO’s major Mediterranean Sea anti-submarine warfare exercise Dynamic Manta got underway at the Italian port of Catania on Monday, March 5. [1]

The two-week drill took place in the Ionian Sea and was joined by navies from 10 allied countries.

Dynamic Manta is an annual NATO exercise in the Mediterranean Sea aimed at providing complex and challenging scenarios for anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare skills development.

Last year’s edition of the exercise saw the participation of nine submarines, 10 surface ships and nine maritime patrol aircraft.

Submarines so far confirmed to be taking part in Dynamic Manta 2018 include Royal Canadian Navy submarine HMCS Windsor, Hellenic Navy submarine HS Matrozos, Turkish submarine TCG Preveze and Spanish Navy’s ESPS Mistral.

According to a NATO infographic, the exercise hosted ten nations, six submarines and nine surface ships. (Story continues below Ad)

Second Naval Exercise

Another NATO naval exercise "Ariadne",  took place in the Ionian Sea, was completed late Friday and by Saturday at noon  four naval ships of NATO were tied up to the shore in the harbor of Corfu, Greece. [2]

The navy squadron, whose ship's crews number 168 men and women, will remain on the island until Monday, while on Saturday afternoon officers of the naval vessels also visited the Ionian Islands Regional Authority Theodoros Galiazatos.

 

Meanwhile in the Red Sea

The Egyptian and French navies have started a joint drill in the Red Sea, the Egyptian Armed Forces has said.[3]

The exercises, scheduled to last several days, come within the framework of partnership and military cooperation between the armed forces of the two countries, a military statement said on Tuesday, Xinhua news agency reported. 

A number of Egypt's naval units, including the Mistral helicopter carrier, frigates and rocket launchers, participated in the naval drill, along with several French military boats and frigates, it added.

The joint drill aims to boost the maritime security and strengthen the combat efficiency of the naval forces of the two countries, in order to get ready for any joint missions under any circumstances, according to the statement.

The recent years have witnessed increasing military ties between Cairo and Paris.

 

Put simply, if the U.S. decides to launch another missile attack upon Syria, (Reported HERE)  the Russian intent to strike back would be a deadly mistake doomed to failure.  While the US naval presence is formidable on its own, adding another 13 ships and six submarines tips the scale of power to insurmountable.  It would be suicide for Russia to strike back.

Stay tuned.

 

Corroboration:

1 https://navaltoday.com/2017/03/14/nato-kicks-off-dynamic-manta/

2 http://www.viadiplomacy.gr/stin-kerkira-polemika-plia-tou-nato/

https://navaltoday.com/2018/03/05/nato-asw-drill-dynamic-manta-kicks-off-in-italy/


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2018 at 4:53am
Some newsitems:


DJ-The US-and with them NATO, Gulf States, Israel, Australia New Zealand want to hold on to the uni-polar world. Russia, China, Iran (a.o.) want to change that. Syria seems to be the testcase for the powerstruggle. Problem is that eventhough Syria itself is away from US, EU, Russia a global conflict with modern weapons will go very fast and can reach any part of the globe within an hour. 

Without a willingness to talk, compromise, we are heading to conflict.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2018 at 10:21am



http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/03/19/555971/Federica-Mogherini-Iran-sanctions-JCPOA
EU-No further sanctions on Iran in Iran deal


1-Assad did win the war, 2-US should stick to Iran deal, 3-US is selling KSA weapons etc. without any control on use (in Yemen)

Trump and 3M (Macron, May, Merkel) on anti-Russia campain


Speaking to Sputnik reporter Suliman Mulhem, a Syrian analyst reported that a largescale US military operation is set to be launched against the Syrian Army near the Syria-Iraq border "very soon."

"The US is planning a large attack against the Syrian Army very soon to capture Syria's border with Iraq, especially near al-Tanf and perhaps even parts further inland," the analyst told Sputnik, citing informed military sources stationed near the al-Tanf US military base. 

Reports of an upcoming escalation with the US are also circulating on social media.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2018 at 9:17pm



US ships arrive in Cyprus EEZ

The increased US naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean until the end of the month is seen as an indication of the concern triggered by Turkey’s recent hostility in the region, which last month led to the suspension of Italian energy company Eni’s drilling operations in Block 3 of Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

The incident with the Italian drillship was condemned by the governments of Cyprus, Italy and the US and the European Commission.

Even though the bolstered American presence is mainly due to a planned exercise by the US and Israel, it almost coincides with scheduled hydrocarbon drilling in Block 10 of Cyprus’s EEZ by American energy giant ExxonMobil.

According to sources, the US will begin strengthening its naval presence as of Wednesday in the region between southern Cyprus and Israel, but this is reportedly not directly linked to exploration activities by Exxon which are due to start on Sunday and last until April 20.

Kathimerini understands a US naval group and its amphibious USS Iwo Jima flagship will, in collaboration with Israeli forces, conduct a population evacuation exercise Wednesday.

It will also include the USS New York and USS Oak Hill and will last until March 18 in a region stretching from northern Israel to southern Cyprus. The three American ships are expected to remain in the area until at least March 25, which means their presence in the region around the island’s EEZ – along with that of the Israeli Navy – will coincide for around two weeks with Noble’s hydrocarbon exploration in Block 10.

Turkey has made no claims to Block 10 as it has done for Block 3, but nonetheless warned the US in recent days against sending its Sixth Fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean.

If anything, the warning is an indication of the strain on US-Turkish relations, which is also reflected in Ankara’s dismay at the US naval presence in the Black Sea.

Turkish objections appear to coincide with Moscow’s view that the US is testing the 1936 Montreux Convention that gives Turkey control over the Bosporus Strait and the Dardanelles and regulates the transit of naval warships. It also restricts the passage of naval ships not belonging to Black Sea states.


http://www.ekathimerini.com/226483/article/ekathimerini/news/us-ships-arrive-in-cyprus-eez


The "Big Stick" has been in the Gulf since October!
Buy more ammo!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2018 at 11:06pm
Defcon did add several pages https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=11677&start=30
From Hal Turner:
In Syria itself: http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/19-march-deir-ezzur-eastern-countryside-sdf-militias-are DJ-With many Kurds fighting Turkey the East Syria SDF may be "renamed IS fighters" (and not all IS fighters are extremists-some tribes were forced to join "the winning party"-when it was IS-to survive-they became IS.

DJ-I do think many countries are also loking at cyber/electronic warfare-not only Russia, (the US, China, Iran, Israel etc.-it is a part of warfare). What would be better when you can controll the "smart weapons" of an enemy in their country. ICBM's exploding when launched-ammunitionstorages exploding at "enemy"base. Several countries will have some form of "sleeper cells" to sabotage infrastructure, cause chaos, spread rumours. 

A "military solution" on a large scale will be the end of mankind.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2018 at 10:59pm
DJ-I'm happy Trump congratulated Putin with his reelection. (And yes-there was some fraud in Russia-but nobody doubts Putin is the most popular Presidential candidate in Russia-DJ-I think Putin should start to look for a successor-everything has a limit). Thee Trump phonecall to Putin deescalated the tensions maybe a little. 

Still-Turkey and Syria are moving closer to war, Syria also will not accept any further US agression. (Most likely Syria believes it has the support of Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, Iraq PMU's, Afghan/Pakistan-shia-fighters-capable of bringing confrontation between US, Turkey from Lebanon to Afghanistan and Pakistan).

http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/21-march-mayadeen-reporter-says-turkish-army-is-shelling and https://southfront.org/turkish-army-clashes-with-syrian-army-and-kurdish-fighters-south-of-afrin/ DJ-The US has moved itself in an impossible position-supporting Turkey=war with Kurds, losing eastern Syria (and more-quite likely), supporting the Kurds is losing Turkey (end of NATO).
https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-march-21-2018-three-chemical-weapons-attacks-are-prevented/ DJ-Pro-Assad forces use illegal weapons, but the "rebels"most likely are much worse.

Yemen

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-21/caught-video-houthi-rebels-shoot-down-another-saudi-f-15-fighter-over-yemen (DJ-The F15 is a major US fighter-not supposed to be shot down by a "Yemen-tribe") 

Egypt


https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/muammar-gaddafis-son-can-unite-libyans-lawyer-of-seif-al-islam/ DJ-NATO killed his father-Gaddafi jr. taking revenge (a.o. on Sarkozy, I believe the widow of Saddam Hussain is also still active, with one of three daughters-from Jordanhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raghad_Hussein maybe supporting IS ?-)Taliban more or less in control of Afghanistan. The "west" has spent zillions of dollars/euro's on regime change since 2001-the world only got worse by it.)
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2018 at 2:13am
Some newsreports;


DJ-Discussion on how complicated the SW-Asia (SE-Europe, North Africa) situation is getting.

Putin;
Without Putin Assad could not call himself President of Syria. Erdogan may have not survived a (fake-self organized?) coup. Netanyahu would most likely have attacked Iran. 
Russia did put itself in a very complicated scenario to save a long term ally-Syria. If Russia would not have intervened Assad would be gone/dead. Syria would be split in several "regions" (Kurdish, Turkish, Sunni/IS, western-Alevite). NATO would be in control up to Pakistan/Afghanistan-putting pressure on Russia, Iran, China. Assad fully depends on Russia.

Turkey;

Still a NATO-member-even willing to ask for art.5 assistence. Turkey is military active in Libya, Sudan, Qatar. De facto wants to control the Kurdish regions in Northern Syria, NW-Iraq. 
-Turkey is doing bussiness with Russia in Turk-stream oil/gas-pipeline. Has-for the time being-good relations with Iran. Did support Is-still supports Free Syrian Army (with a.o. the US) wich is fighting the Kurds and pro-Assad forces. Erdogan wants regime change in Syria. (DJ-With Turkey as a friend you do not need an enemy).

Israel-Netanyahu has good relations with Putin. In Syria Israel and Russia-most likely-from time to time coordinate/share info. During Obama the US-Israeli relations did worsen.
De facto-Israel needs the US to do "the dirty work"/weapons, money. Israel can not start a war with Hezbollah or Iran without US support. Russia may serve as protection against Hezbollah/Iran in Syria. (The US has lost influence on much of that area). Israel may be willing to create false flags to start a major conflicts-US-Iran, Greece-Turkey. With the Gulf States supported IS-but has also good relations (for oil-reasons) with the Kurds. Oil-conflict with Turkey/Lebanon (Cyprus)

France, Macron seems to think of himself as a new Napoleon. Syria-after world war 1-end of Ottoman Empire-was a French protectorate. France has a lot of oil interests in the Middle East and may not trust UK/US to look after those interests. 

Turkey, Israel, France are "part of the western coalition" all have their own agenda-willing to do deals with Russia when it fits their agenda's. 

China is another-major-player in the region. China is in an energycrisis-they NEED oil/gas. The China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor is not making India (at the moment ruled by anti-muslim extremists-eventhough India is the third largest Muslim country with over 200 million Muslims) very happy.
China-India-Pakistan are involved in the Kashmir/Himalaya-conflicts. Russia may get financial help from China for its action in Syria. China also works with Iran on railways/ports (including a Chinese Army Base)-to make things complicated Iran has good relations with India-India also has good relations with Israel.

The UK is military very involved in several conflicts. With the Brexit going ugly-UK may join Trans Pacific Partnership-hoping to be a China-base for Europe-the UK is also in a difficult position. 

Leaders: M3T=May,Macron,Merkel,Trump all are in a weak position. Netanyahu is just a few steps away from prison due to corruption charges. The Saudi-"kingdom" depends on US/UK weapons. The US has become an oil-exporter. Failed foreign policies-from wars with Bahrein, Yemen, support IS/alquada to the Qatar-conflict, spending billions on palaces, may be like Iran in 1978-close to collapse. The real Saudi power base is the army-wich is split in up several sections supporting different princes/tribes/interests. 
In Egypt al-Sisi depends on Saudi-aid while fighting IS (wich is supported by KSA-former Muslim Brotherhood).  In Libya Gaddafi'son may become the unifying fugure in coming presidential elections. (Russia and Egypt both support Hafter in East Libya-but could support Gadaffi if that brings stability. The "west"is divided-on oil interests-supporting different militia.)
The two leaders in a strong position are Putin and Xi, Russia and China.

Most likely outcome could be break-up of western coalition. (Saudi Arabia wants to buy Russian weapons, trade oil in Yuan). The refugee-crisis, EU/Euro-crisis is limiting(/dividing) the EU-wich want to keep-more or less-the Iran-deal.
The US is about to start/move further in tradewars with the EU, China etc. (DJ-If the "western coalition"was a car I would not want to drive it-it does not get far-I'll be happy when it does not explode-but it will fall apart in several pieces when it starts moving.)

What to do: TALK ! Any further military action only makes things worse for the west-shows it internal weaknesses. The Iran-deal may be the best you can get at the moment-US/Israel/Saudi-accept it !
Russia/China are willing to do bussiness with both the EU and US. The Russia-Iran-China coalition at the moment-due to the western policies-is only getting stronger ! Serious risks of conflicts (for what western goals ? Control of oil ?) are growing while "the west" is divided and has no clear strategy.


Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2018 at 11:05am
Turkey-Kurds

Turkey is moving further in Afrin NW-Syria confronted by a mix of Kurds and pro-Assad forces. Both Turkey and Syria-from time to time-attack eachothers positions. Turkey also planning military action in northern Iraq.

US in Syria
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/23-march-yesterday-night-many-local-media-agencies-claimed another US attack on pro-Assad forces near oilfields Deir ez Zor. With Turkey getting ready for more military action against Kurds, the Kurds most on the frontlines a lot of east Syria de facto is taken over by the US and former IS renamed SDF. 

US-China


US


India-China


DJ-Also a remark on Turkey-Iran-Pakistan(-Afghanistan-Iraq-Syria). With 367 million (+112 million would make about 480 milion people) SW Asia is a powerblock in itself. More cooperation-under China/Russia influence-may change the regional balance of power. These countries have everything to gain by using their position between China/India and Europe.
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2018 at 2:38am
US

Bolton has a hammer and he will find lots of nails. Like Hillary Clinton he will want to fight with Iran, North Korea, Russia, China and others in no particular order. He will want to destroy Syria. He is cozy with the Kurds and the Iranian terror cult MEK. He addressed (vid) their congress eight years in a row and made lots of money for saying things like this:

"efore 2019, we here will celebrate in Tehran.”

Bolton has little concern for U.S. allies except, maybe, for Israel.

His first priority will be to prevent the announced summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un. He will want more sanctions on North Korea and may argue for a 'preventive' strike against it. He does not care that such a strike will certainly kill tens of thousands of Koreans in the north and south and several thousand U.S. soldiers and civilians.

New sanctions on North Korea are problematic as Trump has just put additional tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. imports of Chinese goods. (The Chinese response is smart: Tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods from states that Trump won.) Why should China and Russia (and South Korea) help the U.S. to strangulate North Korea when they themselves are under fire? To prevent a U.S. strike that may come anyway the very next day?

The Europeans who were part of the nuclear agreement with Iran have to answer a similar question. Why offer Trump a 'compromise' over the JCPOA when the chances are now high that he will destroy it anyway?

What will Bolton do on Syria? Will he try to find a new agreement with Erdogan and drag Turkey away from endorsing Russia's polices in Syria? If he manages to do so, Syria's north will become a shared Turkish-U.S. entity and will be lost for a long time. New attacks on the Syrian government, from the north, south and east, where the U.S. re-trains ISIS into a new 'moderate rebel' army, would then open the next phase of the war.

So far the mean time of survival for Trump appointees is some six to eight months. Let us hope that John Bolton's appointment will - in the end - lower that average.

Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2018 at 1:42pm
Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be, The future is not ours to see, Que sera, sera !
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