What will 2024 bring ?

DJ-A new year in many ways does bring continuation of "processes" allready ongoing in the year before...For that matter 2024 should not offer that many surprises...

However....

-WAR

The present Red Sea crisis is bringing even more insanity in western "leaders"...Some of them may follow netanyahu's wish for war with Iran...

BRICS-extra so far did "limit" its military reaction; "make trade not war" ! DJ-I think that BRICS-extra strategy for BRICS-extra is a success...Endless insane confrontations by the west so far only resulted in a much weaker "west"...In fact it is the "west" destroying itself...supporting genocides all over the planet is NOT welcomed by the rest of the world...

"Make trade not war" may also result in "the west" no longer being able to start wars (by proxy)  all over the planet...

DJ-both zelensky and netanyahu are that hated in their NATO-proxy "colony" most people want to get rid of them...In Ukraine "rounding up" another 500,000 people to die in an insane war-with possibly half of the Ukraine population seeking safety outside Ukraine (this may mean 20 million out of 40 million Ukrainians !)...may bring closer an uprising...

"Recruiter gangs" taking football teams from the field...closing of shopping centers...to "push" people (sometimes very young or old)  into "the army" and within a few days into frontlines...

In Palestine there are only increasing questions on "october 7"...The "israel -proxy" army killed over 1200 civilians - with netanyahu blaming Hamas for it...YES-Hamas did carry out an attack...they had been training for that "Yom Kippour" attack for over a year...a lot of "intel" WAS known ! But netanyahu did send most of the military to the West Bank in support of "jewish" extremist anti Palestine actions...

...So...BRICS-extra "wishfull thinking" may be the "west" will see collapse in many ways...stopping western agression...

DJ-I do NOT share that optimism...neo-cons may go nuclear...US, UK, "israel" could have "idiots in power" willing to go that far...I hope 2024 will NOT see any kind of (tactical = battlefield) nuclear weapon being used...

-Climate...

This year may be both most warm and most wet year in history since measuring began...

"W3" is interlinked;

Warmth means more evaporation

Wet is the outcome of more evaporation...

Windy has to do with warmth putting more energy in the atmosphere...

BOE...(Paul Beckwith tought of that one...) Blue Ocean Event = less than 1 million km2 sea ice in the Arctic...Both Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland ice melt is "very high"...with more "warmth" and more rain, warm ocean water that "ice" may melt high speed...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o ;

El Niño (/ɛl ˈniːnjoʊ/ el NEEN-yoh, Spanish: [el ˈniɲo]; lit. 'The Boy') is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that marks the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (approximately between the International Date Line and 120°W), including the area off the west coast of South America. The ENSO is the cycle of warm and cold sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

will bring even more warmth in 2024...with that even more extreme weather...NL may see flood risks in january...rivers almost running dry in august...We WILL see more extreme weather but it may be impossible to predict what-when-where...

-Pandemic

DJ-I started with two main background factors; war and climate...

Both are making the ongoing CoViD pandemic even worse...Cholera, malaria will increase worldwide...On top of a H5N1 spread (most in birds) not under control...

CoViD and H5N1 (but also Q-fever, BTV etc.) will increase...both in humans and other mammals...More war and more climate disasters mean more refugees trying to find a safe place...Their health may be even worse...

I love to be wrong but I do expect a healthcare crisis in january...it will further decrease trust in "politics"...

Some other remarks;

-Increased risk of "severe social unrest" in most of "the west"...(I hope we do NOT see civil war...but we could see governments going for very strict rules to keep power/control...)

-US inflation may "move" to 10% + year-on-year...Usage of US$ in international trade dropping even faster than in 2023...

-Global population may see a decrease...excess deaths, less children born may -slow down/stop- increase of human population....

-BRICS-extra meeting in Kazan october 2024 will see over ten new members...(Venezuela, Cuba, Nigeria, Vietnam, Belarus, Türkiye,  Algeria very likely...) however most growth may be in the "extra"...lots of countries switching to own/BRICS currencies for trade. Most of trade no longer western dominated...

-Neither biden or trump may end up as next US president...