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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic.

When to leave the city and how..?

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Ravendawn View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 18 2006 at 2:36pm
Hello to you all ,So we have food,water and the rest of our survival items including a snatch bag  when the looting of houses draws near i want to flee to the countryside with my children ,will i have to encounter the Army on roads? and if so any ideas on evasion ? we live on the outskirts of a large city about  5 miles to wooded land i have been trying to make my worst case scenario escape plan boy is it hard to do .Unfortunately we live in a area where the city's have open and sparsely wooded areas in between them so the chances of mass Exodus across the countryside from one city to the next would compromise any hide out i think ,the area i need to get to will be difficult to reach and may take days to reach without being seen, maybe night travel will be our only option,just a thought if you have a area in mind to go to have a drive around and check out the water supply ie,drying out due to drought or building work as i have had to change my plans due to this,also try to obtain old well site maps just a thought, i would appreciate any tips on handling looters and escape plans tata from Raven..UK..
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Well the first thing I would think is do I really want to leave..we are not talking about war or a nuke..we are talking bird flu..so if you flee your home..will you get dropped on by a bird..will you step in it and well transfer it from your shoe to your sleeve to your mouth to your eyes...will the water be safe to drink...

If I am going down..I will go down in my house...

but if you are thinking of an area out in the woods then plan ahead...walk your route drive it..have the gas in the car..be prepared..and if you a certain spot in mind..take a shove and take some preps there in sealed plastic buckets and have them there..ready for you..have you ever lived in the woods..have you ever trapped or hunted ..do you have a gun or a crossbow...

 

I live in the far north and I only have to walk 3 minutes and I am at a lake that I could go anywhere were man has never walked...but do I want to risk it..NO...

Hi raven i am muskrat...welcome to the forum...no don,t get shy about my post back...trying to show you hard it is to go into nana land.

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Ravendawn View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ravendawn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 3:03pm
Hi Muskrat,at the moment i am trying to cover all avenues of survival believe me leaving my home will be a last option,as for weapons yes i have started to collect what i can  within the UK law .I am in the process of making hidden hideaways in my home ie,false wall in the attic to hide the kids and some stores,i know this flu may just vanish but i will always be prepared in the future you never know what is around the corner .tata ..Raven..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Daydreamer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 3:12pm

Welcome Ravendawn. I am trying to understand why you would want to leave your home. You mentioned looters in the city. Are you not prepared to fight back if they should try to rob you?


You mentioned some wooded land that is about five miles away from you. Do you own this land? What is on the land? Is there a house or some sort of shelter? You mentioned building but didn't say what type of shelter is there.

Where are your preps stored and if they aren't on this land, how are you going to get them there? What will you live on if you can't carry your food storage with you?

I am not posting this to be negative. I am hoping my questions are questions that you have asked yourself. Are you sure that you wouldn't be better off staying in the city and preparing for what might happen there? Please read the posts here on this forum. I am sure you will get all sorts of ideas on how to handle this situation. If we can help in any way, don't hesitate to ask. ~ Daydreamer

Don't put off tomorrow what you can PREP today
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pioneer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 3:13pm

ravendawn,

imo, you dont want to wait till the looters draw near.

if your plan is to bug out, 

go as soon as the shtf,

if thats not possible, 

then at  the first hint of trouble in your area,

go.

but imo,

if you have left it that long,

you could have problems getting where you want to go,

road blocks by the army/police etc,

looters on the way,

little villages having blocked the roads to keep outsiders out.

if your planning to wait till the shtf before you go,

night travel may not be such a good idea,

lights can be seen for miles,

plus they will see you long before you see them.

better to be there 7 days early than an hour too late.

all the animals in the wood teach their children to survive from nature with one exception,
man
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Ravendawn View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ravendawn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 3:20pm
Hi Daydreamer thanks for the reply,i have a kit with food water everything you need to survive in the woods in two back packs maybe one weeks supply of food  not alot i know i am relying on bush craft ,the land is not mine  and to be in a building in a wood in my view would be sheer folly i intend to drive my car as deep into a wood as possible and use a cameo net to cover it and live in it as long as we can just a option tata ..Raven..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 3:22pm

Hello Ravendale, I've been off line so haven't seen you since you first posted.  I agree with Muskrat, I'm not going anywhere. 

IMO, I feel safer inside my home than outside with who knows what. Here if I have to defend my home, I know it inside and out, but outside I'm maybe in the woods, along with a lot of other people. some more experienced, who could overpower  you and then your provisions are gone. 

In your home they can't see what you have.  Then there are the wild animals, from my understanding they can get it form eating other dead things.  I don't fancy meeting a bear or a cougar, who's sick but not sick enough to  not attack.

Just my reasoning. We are experienced campers as well, not the kind that go to parks,but we pack in our water and pack home our garbage.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ravendawn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 3:25pm
Hi Pioneer,thanks for the advice something more to think about
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pioneer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 3:41pm

ravendawn,

anytime,

always glad to help a fellow prepper.

 

all the animals in the wood teach their children to survive from nature with one exception,
man
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ravendawn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 3:42pm
Hello Siameselade,believe me if anyone comes in my home i am ready to protect my two young children and wife, i have some plans but any views from other members are greatly received as many minds work better than one,and seeing this is new territory to me all options are open at present.Not being able to own a gun leaves one in a medieval state of home defense,as for looters the local junkies are very widespread in my home town i have seen them in action NOT A PRETTY SITE if and i say if the flu goes mass H2H mob rule here will be swift ,i am trying to devise a plan to go to ground at home or in the wild .tata...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Scotty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 4:22pm

Ravendawn:

For the benefit of those who are not familiar with the U.K. we are a very small island and 50 million of our 60 million inhabitants live in the southern half of it. This is a country where you could, if you wished, walk from one city to another. The option to hide does not exist.

For those of you who live in the U.K. be reasonable. The people in Derby bug out. The people in Nottingham bug out. Ten minutes later someone says Psst. Is anybody there? Two million people say yeah, I'm here. What are we all doing in Sherwood Forest?

You aren't going to like this, and I'm sorry for that, but my best advice is to pause for a while and think.

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Hi Scott,maybe i did not express myself clearly this is a valid point  you have raised i am well aware of the migration of millions of refugees into the countryside and to leave ones home as a last result has to be raised ,what happens if the mobs decide to torch the neighborhood for fun?as i have said i do value all replies and i do not get offended we have to have a decision on all eventualities survival is not text book you must cover every angle however distasteful it is ,i like many others need information and finding this site has helped a lot .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thomas Angel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 5:19pm

Originally posted by Ravendawn Ravendawn wrote:

Hello Siameselade,believe me if anyone comes in my home i am ready to protect my two young children and wife, i have some plans but any views from other members are greatly received as many minds work better than one,and seeing this is new territory to me all options are open at present.Not being able to own a gun leaves one in a medieval state of home defense,as for looters the local junkies are very widespread in my home town i have seen them in action NOT A PRETTY SITE if and i say if the flu goes mass H2H mob rule here will be swift ,i am trying to devise a plan to go to ground at home or in the wild .tata...
Tough spot you're in.  Let me first say that you are one of millions in the same situation.  However, you are here, you are aware of the threat, you are already considering EVERYTHING that you need to be.  That gives you an advantage millions of people are never going to have.

Here, where I am, well, I can go to ground and defend things, slug it out, until the city is rendered uninhabitable (which is only going to be a matter of a week or so, two at he best).  That's the plan here at present, btw, to slug it out in place, then move out, fight our way out of the city under the cover of darkness.

I do not have any children here.  My youngest and her mother were already evacuated to a safer rural area and will be protected by the people there, and hopefully will not have to face anything similar to the horrors of when this city goes to Hell.

I cannot leave, for reasons that I am choosing not to discuss here, but in a large part are due to responsibilties of leadership, and in part because I see some advantages to be gained by staying in place and slugging it out.

Your situation, from what I can gather, is different altogether.  You haven't sent the children away along with their mother ( which is an alternative you need to examine because there is merit in it regardless of the personal hardship of such a seperation).  You do not have access to the means to defend yourself against that which you refer to as Mob Rule, and you are aware that it's only a matter of days or hours when that senario will unfold once this goes H2H, if it hasn't already done so an we aren't wise to it just yet.

I would look after the children and their mother now.  I have done so myself in regards to my own youngest child and her mother (the other daughters are in their mid-twenties and are making their own decisions as to where to make their stand).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 5:32pm
I found your forum about two weeks ago, and joined today given the idea of flu and the city being center of my thoughts. (secretly I was hoping to be the 1000 member ;-) )

Most of us live in large cities and have limited options when it comes to leaving.  I think the biggest concern is panic.  Even if us city dwellers have a place to go to, the risk of getting there is very high.  Gridlock, people crazed and potentially violent, accidents, large crowds (and correspondingly high risk of exposure and transmission) are all real factors. 

I live in a 5th floor apartment in a large West Coast city and my clan ( a family of 4 plus one uncle and two aging grandparents) is 3 hours away on a good day in another major metro area.  In addition, as an Army Reserve officer specifically trained in epidemiolgy and disaster management, it is likely I will be called into our emergency operations center. 

I have been prepared for a run of a mill disaster like an Earthquake for years.  About 6 months ago, I started watching avian flu more closely.  About 3 months ago I started helping my extended family get their basic emergency kits ready and we even had disaster drills with the kids.  About two weeks ago I began bringing up pandemics and this week I am trying to help them sort through how to deal with 3months of supplies in the next say 2 to 3 weeks on the outside.  Even with the supplies, it is still a question of how to make it through in the city. 

I have transfered all of my supplies for me as a single and my dog into large containers with rollers and locking mechanisms.  Given it is unlikely I will stay in my apartment, I am able to move out in 30 minutes either to work, or if possible, to my loved ones. I will mask and glove up if necessary.  I will be doing a close inspection of "my clans" house this next weekend and reviewing emergency action steps.  The concept is on my word they go home and stay there.  If I can get to them I will (although it is unlikely I will be able to stay), I will decon myself, and then make sure everybody is absolutely clear on what they have to do to minimize risk. They have critical gaps in their preparedness for long term --particularly if the power goes out. They live in a very close-knit neighborhood with a neighborhood watch and are likely safer there than trying to figure out surviving somewhere else. I have already shipped them masks and gloves.  I am purchasing two shotguns, one for myself and one for them, although they refuse to have a gun in the house, they may change their minds if they get scared enough.  I am having the grandparents and uncle bring over a couple of pairs of clean clothes this week so that if they do come to the house, they can decon on the porch, place the potentially contaminated clothes in plastic bags, and then come inside clean.  If the bug is already in town, the extended relatives will have to stay in masks for several days and sleep in the negative pressure room so we can minimize risk to those already in the house. I am even considering expanding the negative pressure concept to living areas, but am still researching it.

My focus is to be prepared to the point where  they do not need to leave their house for any reason.  And can barracade in place if necessary.   All they have to do is to take care and out last it.  Simple in concept, dificult in execution.  Just thought I'd share my thoughts as a city dweller !


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Ravendawn View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ravendawn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 5:43pm
Hi Thomas Angel,i make no excuses we live on a very tight budjet and if it were possible  to evacuate my loved ones i would do so i am glad you have been able to sort your end out,I'm very concerned at the prospect of my family living wild i can cope i think as in my younger days i had to ruff it a bit on the street ,i know to take the route i am will be nearly impossible but i do believe if you stay in your home for a long enougth period after the  H2H has been announced you will have a multitude of unwelcome guests the choice will be on my head .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thomas Angel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 5:48pm
Welcome to the Forum.  You're thinking too, I see.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Amethyst Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 6:52pm

Good question.  I've been thinking about this too.  Intially, my plan was to stay at my parents' cabin, but I was talking with them about other stuff today and my stepmom mentioned there was a mold problem, so I don't think that'll be a viable long-term solution. 

I have relatives who live in northern MN in small towns, and I suppose I could go there if something happened down here, but living in northern MN would seriously suck when winter comes again if the power was out permanently.  Not to mention, I doubt any of them will prep. 

I probably would shelter in place, but it depends on how bad it gets.  If it got to be a Stephen King scenario, I'd head south so I could at least be warm during the winters.  I'm seriously thinking about getting a tube tent.

 

 

 

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Hi Amethyst,I'm not familiar with the geography of your location but i can grasp the seasonal dilemma you face maybe the cold weather will prevent the flu reaching you and as a plus city dwellers will favor the easy  living in a warmer climate i would consider the cold it may be to you advantage if you can get enough stores ,funny you raised Stephen king, this happening now is like watching a new horror trailer only we are the actors (IF I SEE OLD LADIES ON PORCHES IN MY DREAMS I WILL KNOW I HAVE FINALLY LOST THE PLOT) Its the same for me do i stay or do i go ,as for prepping i have tried to tell people but you come to a point when you stop trying to help them help there selvesAs for a tent i am going to use a cameo tarp and 4 sleeping bags mummy ones this will cripple my cash flow, i hope you find your answer good luck.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 8:11pm

Blue Sky,

Welcome into the sun shine.  If your first post is any indication, I eagerly look forward to your future contributions.

Perhaps if you have the time and inclination you could help us understand the Reserve's possible responses to a pandemic.  There are a tremendous amount of questions and anxieties on that issue and having an "insider" help us understand the likely "truth" would be a huge benefit.  If you can't provide any information on this I understand... I was an honorary member of the Secret Squirrel Squad in a past life (kidding of course) but in all seriousness.... if you could help tone down the panic and shooting people in the back beliefs I would be immensely grateful.

SZ

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Amethyst Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2006 at 8:23pm

Originally posted by Ravendawn Ravendawn wrote:

Hi Amethyst,I'm not familiar with the geography of your location but i can grasp the seasonal dilemma you face maybe the cold weather will prevent the flu reaching you and as a plus city dwellers will favor the easy  living in a warmer climate i would consider the cold it may be to you advantage if you can get enough stores ,funny you raised Stephen king, this happening now is like watching a new horror trailer only we are the actors (IF I SEE OLD LADIES ON PORCHES IN MY DREAMS I WILL KNOW I HAVE FINALLY LOST THE PLOT) Its the same for me do i stay or do i go ,as for prepping i have tried to tell people but you come to a point when you stop trying to help them help there selvesAs for a tent i am going to use a cameo tarp and 4 sleeping bags mummy ones this will cripple my cash flow, i hope you find your answer good luck.

Hi.  I live in MN, which is in the upper midwest in the US.  It's on about the same latitude as Germany, IIRC.  It's fairly mild most of the year, but it can get to below 20 degrees F in the winter time, especially with the wind chill factor.  It's been in the upper thirties & forties lately -- it actually hit fifty last week, right before our most recent snowstorm.   

We get the regular flu here, so I can't see why the cold would stop the bird flu, especially in the early spring.  Heck, the birds are coming back -- I've heard and seen them outside.

I've read the Stand a few years ago, which definitely comes to mind when thinking about a pandemic.  (I've got to reread that sometime soon.) 

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