Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese


Forum Home Forum Home > General Discussion > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Will there be a Panflu this winter?
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

Will there be a Panflu this winter?

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  12>
Poll Question: Do you think a pandemic will strike this next flu season?
Vote Poll Choice Votes Poll Statistics
850 [96.81%]
8 [0.91%]
20 [2.28%]

Author
Message
Albert View Drop Down
Admin
Admin


Joined: April 24 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 38931
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Will there be a Panflu this winter?
    Posted: August 23 2008 at 7:45pm
The last flu pandemics took place on the following years:
 
1918
1958
1968
2008?  
 
In the last 300 years, we have not gone more than 40 years without having a flu pandemic.   We are now in the 40th year. 
 
This would also be the time people would least expect it to happen...  Geek
 
Cast your vote and feel free to comment. 
 
 
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 23 2008 at 10:09pm
40 yrs is making us complacent for sure.
 
If it took as little as 3 mos to make a vaccine do we think we could beat the traveling virus?
This is what, someone... thought in 2005.
........................................................................
 
 

From Times Online
March 1, 2005

What are the chances of a global flu pandemic? Would it definitely hit the UK?
 
excerpts-
 
...if a pandemic strain appeared in the Far East, there might be time to produce a vaccine against it before it got here.
 
...The World Health Organisation advises that a quarter of the population would be likely to catch flu in the event of a pandemic....   
 
(most in developing nations (3rd world)
 
 
 
Back to Top
Dijoy View Drop Down
Advisor Group
Advisor Group


Joined: March 16 2006
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 161
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dijoy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 3:50am
I think the birds were around in 1909 when my young uncle picked something up and died. Later a group of boys picked up a dog and most of them died which is about where we are now. I am guessing 3 or 4 years
Diane
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 4:38am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

The last flu pandemics took place on the following years:
 
1918
1958
1968
2008?  
 
In the last 300 years, we have not gone more than 40 years without having a flu pandemic.   We are now in the 40th year. 
 
This would also be the time people would least expect it to happen...  Geek

Sadly Albert, after years of interaction, I think your intuitions on this are pretty solid. In a purely scientific vein, we have seen mutations this January, and earlier, in the U.S. and throughout the world indicating BF is adapting itself and already beyond the three strains, including the Brisbane 10 and variant which caused havoc last flu season.

Last flu season, it almost made it. We had flu in all states and widespread outbreaks in many. The vaccine was basically ineffective against the two Brisbane strains, 10 specifically, and then an Influenza b which formed the bulk of the later flu season infections.

H7, a high mutator is getting more effective, and H2N3 and I noticed you listed H9.
H5N1 isn't the only avian virus that threatens to trigger a pandemic. A group of virologists was able to make an H9 virus much more transmissible by changing a single chemical component in the hemagglutinin protein, which allows the virus to attach to cells. Mixing bird flu genes with the human flu virus also made H9N2 more threatening to humans. The scientists were working with ferrets in the study, which offer an effective animal model for determining human responses.  

"The H9 may be a silent virus that doesn't get noticed until it's too late," says Daniel Perez, a virologist at the University of Maryland.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2008/08/13/ignored-strain-of-bird-flu-could-lead-to-a-pandemic-of-light-sneezing/

Luckily, researchers say that even if the H9 virus does acquire the ability to spread in people, at first the infection is likely to cause minor illness. “You’re going to have a bunch of people who don’t feel very well, as opposed to dropping off the face of the Earth,” says Raymond Pickles, a cell biologist…. But the new data indicate that if the H9 viruses mix with other human viruses, as commonly happens in nature, it could become more potent [Science News].

There are hundreds of strains of avian influenza viruses, but only four — H5N1, H7N3, H7N7, and H9N2 — are known to have caused human infections, according to the World Health Organization [Reuters]. The H9 virus is known to have infected four children in Hong Kong, who were only slightly sickened, though it’s thought to be carried by millions of birds in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Just FYI and readers.

Let's hope not, but like turning over one of those old black balls with floating answers to tell the future "signs point to yes."

Medclinician


Back to Top
BoJingles2 View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: April 01 2008
Status: Offline
Points: 145
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BoJingles2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 7:00am
I have full trust that my governement will stop the bird flu from entering and spreading within the USA. Also have confidence that WHO will stop it in its tracks in the rest of the world.
Back to Top
Albert View Drop Down
Admin
Admin


Joined: April 24 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 38931
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 8:18am
Originally posted by BoJingles2 BoJingles2 wrote:

I have full trust that my governement will stop the bird flu from entering and spreading within the USA. Also have confidence that WHO will stop it in its tracks in the rest of the world.
 
I don't know about you, but I'm planning on the government coming to the rescue in a Panflu Wink    ......  It might take them awhile to get to everybody so people should buy a few extra supplies ahead of time.  
 
 
Back to Top
FluMom View Drop Down
Senior Admin Group
Senior Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: February 11 2008
Status: Offline
Points: 18836
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 10:56am
Heck, government did really well in Katrina...NOT! The government will do little to help us in any pandemic or any other disaster. I am almost prepped for 9 - 12 months depending on how much food we really go through. I just have one really big item to purchase and I am done. I will just rotate and maintain levels from now on.

I still have a "last minute list" that will add to my stores, but if everything is gone from the shelves my family will survive. God willing.
Always Be Prepared
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 1:47pm

I also think we will be ok

1958
1968

Albert, any stats on the countries pop. % worst hit in these years?

 
(sometimes I'm Lexicdis)
Back to Top
Albert View Drop Down
Admin
Admin


Joined: April 24 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 38931
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 2:34pm
Originally posted by Mary08 Mary08 wrote:

Albert, any stats on the countries pop. % worst hit these in years?

 
Hi Mary08,  I have no idea.
Back to Top
starspirit View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: November 08 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 209
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote starspirit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 6:04pm
if the bird flu follows the odd weather patterns we could be in deep trouble.....
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 6:09pm
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Heck, government did really well in Katrina...NOT! The government will do little to help us in any pandemic or any other disaster. I am almost prepped for 9 - 12 months depending on how much food we really go through. I just have one really big item to purchase and I am done. I will just rotate and maintain levels from now on.

I still have a "last minute list" that will add to my stores, but if everything is gone from the shelves my family will survive. God willing.


I think the reality of Dr. Julie Gerberding, M.D., M.P.H.,  head of CDC sums it up.
 http://www.cdc.gov/about/leadership/bio.htm

Her comment was  that we are not ready for a Pandemic pretty much is how it will be. Those of us who have worked ER, ICU, Paramedic, whatever for decades know what a nightmare staffing can be, patient load, and how it is shutting down Trauma intake because of no beds - on a good day. Two days no sleep, punchy with life and death situations and a mistake means a lost life.

The government does not have the resources to take care of 300,000,000 people medically at the same time. It is like if everyone showed up at the gym who was a member on the same day.

Our power reserves in some places are 3 days when they should be a month. Our police forces would be unable to maintain social order with a CFR rate of over 4%.

It is pretty much like the situation in Katrina to the third power. Take a thousand Katrinas and things won't be "all right."

This is Pollyanna. Reality is that we don't have the resources, military, medical supplies to handle the illnesses we have now. People do not receive adequate medical care right now. So God help us if you put an already inadequate health care system under major stress.

Someone seems to have the idea there are these laid out plans where all these goodies are stashed away and when the flu hits the little white trucks with big red crosses will start handing out vaccine and smiling nurses will handle screaming, freaking out, massively in shock patients whatever they need. You think this sounds way out there. 99% of the population after being spoon fed this, really think it will be all right. If a Pandemic hits, big time, it won't.

We have had instances of nurses running down the road screaming themselves when faced with Ebola and no protection.

Point is - besides God - let's just assume that no one is going to help you. Consider your neighbor will be next door with their stockpile of food and drugs and with a shotgun on their lap. The hospitals will be closed. The government offices closed. The cell phones dead. The power out and the moral of the story. Deal with it.

Prepare for this. Expect it. Don't think if. Expect it. You won't be the worse for it. Extra water and food and medical supplies aren't going to hurt you.

The government is not a black hat if everyone shows up at once with their hand out. Remember JFK ask not what your country can do for you - well stop asking. Grit your teeth, prep like crazy and get ready for the worst.

It does give me gastronomic distress where people really have this idea that the .gov is going to help in all these ways. .gov is going to be trying to survive itself.

We will never be ready. It is like expecting them to clean up all the toxic waste dumps. Never.

Reality is what it is. And if we project and count on no one except for God and ourselves, then we might survive this. If there is any help, if anyone works together, great.

It is not going to blow you away if you have reasonable expectations and realistic ideas about how things are going to be.

Prepare for the worst and pray for the best.  We work disaster scenes where supplies are short and it doesn't stop as you play beat the clock with people walled up drinking their own urine and trying to get through tons of concrete before it is just too long for anyone to still be alive.

MC
Back to Top
Gexydaf View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar
Location: Washington

Joined: April 26 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 252
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gexydaf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 7:03pm
Hey Flumom,  you make me laugh.  We don't we just help the government help us by being all ready Wink for just about anything. 

And I have trouble believing that nature knows what year it is and that we are past due.
Back to Top
FluMom View Drop Down
Senior Admin Group
Senior Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: February 11 2008
Status: Offline
Points: 18836
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 8:14pm
Hey Gexydaf, I agree nature does not know what year it is or past due but it is interesting that pandemics happen every so many years. I believe we are overdue because the world is way over populated and many live in real shi^ much of it bird shi^.

I had an Aunt, now passed on, that prepared for the "bomb" she had food and water stored for all the family in a shelter under her home.
I watched and learned and found that I felt secure that someone was at least going to try and save us.

I am trying to carry that tradition and pass it on to my child. Security may be false but I feel better and my child feels like things will be ok no matter what.

Security is important for children even though it may be false. I have done my best to cover all bases. The government can go to He**!
Always Be Prepared
Back to Top
MelodyAtHome View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: May 16 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 2018
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelodyAtHome Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 8:36pm
I posted about a year ago regarding an article I read on how pandemics increase during solar storms. I wish I could remember where I found that. I suppose you can google pandemic and solar flair and see what comes up.
Melody
Melody
Emergency Preparedness 911
http://emergencypreparedness911.blogspot.com/
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2008 at 10:25pm
 
source-
 
The 1957-1958 “Asian flu” [A (H2N2)] caused about 70,000 deaths in the United States.  First identified in China in late February 1957, the Asian flu spread to the United States by June 1957
 

The last influenza pandemic in 1968-1969, called the “Hong Kong flu” [A (H3N2)], caused about 34,000 deaths in the United States.  This virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year.  Influenza A (H3N2) viruses still circulate today.

 

Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2008 at 3:51am
Originally posted by Mary08 Mary08 wrote:

 
source-
 
The 1957-1958 “Asian flu” [A (H2N2)] caused about 70,000 deaths in the United States.  First identified in China in late February 1957, the Asian flu spread to the United States by June 1957
 

The last influenza pandemic in 1968-1969, called the “Hong Kong flu” [A (H3N2)], caused about 34,000 deaths in the United States.  This virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year.  Influenza A (H3N2) viruses still circulate today.

 



What is the third leading cause of death in the U.S.?  Our medical system.

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2000/07/30/doctors-death-part-one.aspx


ALL THESE ARE DEATHS PER YEAR:

  • 12,000 -- unnecessary surgery
  • 7,000 -- medication errors in hospitals
  • 20,000 -- other errors in hospitals
  • 80,000 -- infections in hospitals
  • 106,000 -- non-error, negative effects of drugs

These total to 225,000 deaths per year from iatrogenic causes!!

What does the word iatrogenic mean? This term is defined as induced in a patient by a physician's activity, manner, or therapy. Used especially of a complication of treatment.

Dr. Starfield offers several warnings in interpreting these numbers:

  • First, most of the data are derived from studies in hospitalized patients.
  • Second, these estimates are for deaths only and do not include negative effects that are associated with disability or discomfort.
  • Third, the estimates of death due to error are lower than those in the IOM report.

If the higher estimates are used, the deaths due to iatrogenic causes would range from 230,000 to 284,000. In any case, 225,000 deaths per year constitutes the third leading cause of death in the United States, after deaths from heart disease and cancer. Even if these figures are overestimated, there is a wide margin between these numbers of deaths and the next leading cause of death (cerebrovascular disease).

Another analysis concluded that between 4% and 18% of consecutive patients experience negative effects in outpatient settings,with:

  • 116 million extra physician visits
  • 77 million extra prescriptions
  • 17 million emergency department visits
  • 8 million hospitalizations
  • 3 million long-term admissions
  • 199,000 additional deaths
  • $77 billion in extra costs

The high cost of the health care system is considered to be a deficit, but seems to be tolerated under the assumption that better health results from more expensive care.

However, evidence from a few studies indicates that as many as 20% to 30% of patients receive inappropriate care.

conclusion: So in my - verbal post I mention the serious state of our medical system and how it is already in serious trouble. It would take very little stress (Pandemic) to bring it to its knees.

In China I believe they treat and try to cure disease. Drugs and most medicine treat symptoms and do not try to cure the patient.  There is no effective treatment for many many viral caused diseases. Your own immune system is your best friend in fighting off disease.

Doctors in China (I was told) are paid for keeping their patients well. Medicine in the Western world primarily profits from people using drugs for chronic health conditions and very little effort is made or is available in our current medical system to cure things. This may be noted by the huge amount of chronic disease, disability, and simple truths such as obesity, smoking, and alcohol are all very legal and very deadly.

We need a better system to treat and cure disease. The system we have in place will not be effective in dealing with an Avian Flu Pandemic.

This is not news. But until we actually have a strain that is doing things like in Ebola outbreak in Africa, where we have a widespread disease which kills even 5% of those who catch it, few will take this Flu business seriously. And it has to be in the U.S., not in third world nations.  It is incredible with Avian confirmed deaths in the hundreds the attention it has received. The potential of course, a Pandemic like the the Black death killing 30% or more would make the conservative death statistics change from a few million to one hundred million in the U.S. if even the most conservative of CFRs which are document in Avian Flu occurred with a mutation of the H3N2 which infected most of the population. Some estimates say that at least 70% of people are effected by a widespread flu. That means, doing your math - 210,000,000 cases and close to 70,000,000 deaths if just the numbers from WHO on CFR are applied. So, perhaps that is the reason for this site. What could happen and the "not if but when part" I have posted since March of 2006.

Its not here yet. Even a mild Pandemic will not hurt us that much. In fact, it probably would stimulate the economy.

Already viruses listed in the  vaccine to be given this season are mutating and we have things evolving to side step it.

Our biggest problem is not the germs and illness, it is the way we treat them.  And our greatest problem is not making a vaccine (which is fairly impossible until we know what the strain is) it is having the people and "drug industry motivation" (dead people don't buy drugs) and in a devastated economy - definitely in third world - who is going to pay for the vaccine? Who is going to administer it?

I know. It is depressing. What is most depressing is how hard it is to change things. The drug industry is entrenched. The medical system is dug in deep. That is why, as antibiotics are given for viral illness and we pump the animals full of our best defenses against diseases and also misuse antibiotics in hospitals creating super bugs we can be our own worst enemy.

We are wide open for a Pandemic and it is long over due. Prepping is just about the only single thing we can do, since we aren't going to be able to change a lot before it arrives.


Medclinician







Back to Top
waterboy View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: January 21 2008
Status: Offline
Points: 8170
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waterboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2008 at 6:23am
NO.........PANIFLU THIS WINTER.......
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2008 at 6:39am
Originally posted by waterboy waterboy wrote:

NO.........PANIFLU THIS WINTER.......


Hi Wb.   Let's hope not, huh. We can count on a flu though, or several strains. That is pretty well a given.

MC
Back to Top
endman View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: February 16 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 912
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote endman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2008 at 6:48am
I believe that Bad Thing Come in Threes
War, Famine and Diseases 
We have already seen food crises
We are looking at maybe two or three major war conflicts
Iran, Georgia, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea
Next are epidemics  
World is approaching 7 Bill people Maybe that all it could handle
Star
Back to Top
quietprepr View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member
Avatar

Joined: May 21 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 1210
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote quietprepr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2008 at 8:26am
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Heck, government did really well in Katrina...NOT! The government will do little to help us in any pandemic or any other disaster. I am almost prepped for 9 - 12 months depending on how much food we really go through. I just have one really big item to purchase and I am done. I will just rotate and maintain levels from now on.

I still have a "last minute list" that will add to my stores, but if everything is gone from the shelves my family will survive. God willing.
Right Flumom! It took them a week to get bottled water to the superdome. What are they going to do if there is a huge problem that is region or country wide? People really think there is intense planning and training going on to deal with this if it breaks wide. I hate to disappoint them but its not that intense. Prep for your family and you wont be disappointed if the government does not show up to bring you food and water like the poor people in New Orleans. They already said you would be on your own...for once I think they are telling the truth!
"Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival." - W. Edwards Deming
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  12>
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down