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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic

World War Three

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2019 at 11:20am
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201910131077037552-live-updates-turkey-conducts-offensive-in-syria-for-5th-day-amid-growing-pushback/,
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/13-october-syrian-army-units-and-units-of-russian-forces,
https://www.rt.com/news/470859-syria-army-turkey-agression/

Russian and Syrian forces moving into SDF/Kurdish held area's to stop Turkey. https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/13-october-a-kurdish-official-confirms-the-holding-of-talks

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-turkish-army-bombs-civilian-convoy, https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/breaking-news-u-s-to-deliberately-withdraw-remaining-troops-in-north-syria

Turkish war-crimes in Syria.

(DJ-Trump knew what would happen after pulling out US forces, shared info with Turkey,https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-latest-from-syria.html?fbclid=IwAR2FEO6BxdFStamYHlQU5QtJeNkol14SIZd08gAoVOQDZ8TLqIcjXdhYOuA)

DJ-(Pro)Turkish soldiers seem to be helping IS POW's. Is this coordinated with the CIA ? Is this a "plan B" to try again for regime change in Syria and stop Iran ?

Turkey most likely does not have any reason to trust the US. So Erdogan has to work with the (Astana) Russia, Iran. It can be Russia warned Turkey against its invasion with proxy-jihadi's against the Kurds.

When Turkey does not listen and the Kurds are willing to agree with Assad as Syrian leader some basic agreement may be reached.
-Stop genocide on Kurds by (western moderate rebels/alqauida/IS) pro-Turkish forces.
-Stop IS POW's getting any territory
-Further talks on the position of Kurds in Syria (maybe recognition of Kurdish culture, Kurdish army groups inside the SAA)
But basicly try to stop a new Afrin, clean Syria from (Saudi/US/EU backed) wahabist/salafist radical terrorists.
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/13-october-syrian-kurdish-officials-say-they-will-work-with Assad

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/syria-declares-war-on-turkey Russian no-fly zone over NE Syria ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2019 at 11:12pm
Some good background articles;

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/margolis-more-stupid-wars-syria DJ-Turkey only has Russia, Iran to turn to, the EU/US do not want to talk with Erdogan. But when Turkey leaves NATO SE Europe/SW Asia "goes to the Russians".

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/compromise-or-genocide-putins-deal-century-rapidly-unfolding-syria DJ-The Kurds could let themselves getting killed by https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/the-moa-week-in-review-ot-2019-59.html "former IS fighters" and other "moderate western backed terrorists" or deal with Assad and Russia.

(DJ-A long term solution for the Kurds could be "cultural cooperation cross borders". The chance for Kurds to get their own state was not backed by the US anytime the last 5 years.)

https://syria.liveuamap.com/, https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13601&start=50

DJ-Pro-Assad forces are moving high speed to take over Kurdish held area's. The SDF-for now-is needed to fight with "pro Turkish groups", most likely not under Turkish control, and the Turkish Army.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201910131077037552-live-updates-turkey-conducts-offensive-in-syria-for-5th-day-amid-growing-pushback/ DJ-Both France and the US still have troops in NE Syria. To be realistic, events go that fast they may be surrounded in the coming 48 hrs by pro-Assad forces.

Today we will find out;
-How Turkey will respond to the Syria-Kurdish agreement
-Will Russia go for a "no-fly-zone" (some Kurdish held airbases are now under SAA control)
-Will there be control on IS camps (maybe Iraq troops moving in-for the moment ?)
-How will Iran, Israel respond ?

https://www.debka.com/task-of-stopping-turkey-passes-from-trump-to-putin-syrian-army-defends-threatened-kurdish-towns/
Already now, since the Syrian government is not up to a full-scale battle with the Turkish army without Russian army and air force support, Turkey and Russian stand at the threshold of a major military clash.

How Putin handles this standoff is open to question. He may be able to resolve it by giving Erdogan a quiet ultimatum to back off or face direct hostilities with the Russian army. Meanwhile, the Russian leader comes out of the mess created by the Turkish operation having attained the overriding goal of his intervention in the Syrian conflict: to bring all parts of the country under the central rule of the Assad regime.

DJ-From the same article;
Feeling abandoned by the US pullback, the Kurds quickly agreed to relinquish their struggle for an independent state and settle for autonomous status for their northeastern provinces in return for the Syrian army taking over the defense of their endangered towns.

The deal, which took effect within 24 hours, still has rough edges to be smoothed out, such as:

The exact nature of Kurdish autonomous rule and relations with central government in Damascus.
The borders of Kurdish-ruled lands.
The fate of the SDF.
How far will Russian President Vladimir Putin be willing to push back against Turkish President Recep Erdogan for halting his army’s advance into northern Syria.
(DJ-Since the Kurds were a small minority prior to the uprising in Syria, most Kurds in Syria come from Turkey.)

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/10/14/608622/US-Donald-Trump-Turkey-Syria-war; The United States is using “the Turks as de facto mercenaries” in Syria in order to continue Washington's destabilization effort in the war-torn country, an analyst says.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2019 at 10:41pm
US blocking SAA moving towards Kobani https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-military-blocks-syrian-armys-entry-into-border-city-video/

https://syria.liveuamap.com/ Pro-Assad forces at some places fighting Turkish backed terrorists.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/syria-regains-its-northeastern-parts.html

DJ-The picture I am getting is that Turkey did reach already 30/50% of its initial goals (M4 motorway). Syria has problems in logistics-to start defense you need heavy weapons and air defense and the right troops.

Syria moving in will stop Turkey from taking over all of the SDF/Kurdish held area's. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-coalition-bombs-syrian-army-convoy-in-southern-raqqa-sohr/ DJ-The US bombing SAA forces seem to be false.

Still the US, UK, France is not ready in pulling back its troops.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2019 at 3:00am
DJ-Two good articles from Debka;

https://www.debka.com/mivzak/syrian-forces-confront-turkish-troops-at-kobani-and-manbij/
https://www.debka.com/russian-warning-halts-turkish-syria-operation-us-pullback-from-e-syria-too-opens-door-to-iran/

Basicly-Russia did allow Turkey "some movements against the Kurds" (for strategic reasons-to get the US, UK, French troops out and the SDF to work with Assad). Russia does not want (Pro)Turkish forces fighting the Syrian Arab Army. The SAA without Russian air cover is not able to stop the (Pro)Turkish forces (DJ-Some of those "rebels/terrorists" are hardly under Turkish control. The Proxies do the frontline "dirty work" backed by Turkish aircover, artillery and some special services (bridge laying etc))

There is a risk of a Russian-Turkish confrontation, Russian forces/PMC's are moving with the SAA.

https://www.debka.com/mivzak/putin-begins-visit-to-riyadh-just-one-month-after-irans-attack-on-saudi-oil/

https://southfront.org/turkish-backed-forces-announce-advance-on-manbij-clash-with-syrian-army/

https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13616

-US putting sanctions on Turkey
-China telling Turkey to stop the invasion into Syria
-https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/erdogan-holding-50-us-tactical-nukes-hostage-trump-authorizes-sanctions
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2019 at 12:05pm
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-deploys-soldiers-between-syrian-and-turkish-armies
DJ-HT claims Russians moving in between Syrian and Turkish military. (DJ-Problem is Turkey is using proxy-fighters that they not control-(ex)IS, alquida terrorists that hate Russians. These "groups" may start confrontation with Russian forces-and learn the results....)
HT also claims a de facto Russian Electronic Warfare no-fly zone over SE Turkey north Syria-still https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/15-october-turkish-warplanes-have-targeted-saa-convoy-moving one may doubt if there is an effective Russian no-fly zone.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201910151077050776-live-updates-turkey-continues-op-in-syria-clashing-with-kurdish-led-militia/,

https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13601&start=50;
Breaking: first Russian airstrike targetted Turkey back Jihadists in Manbej.

Lots of unconfirmed info-some may be correct.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-officials-turkey-deliberately-releasing-isis-prisoners-then-blaming-kurdish-forces
(DJ-Many indications for good relations between IS and Turkey.)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 16 2019 at 12:57am
DJ-Some good articles;

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-kurds-face-stark-options-after-us-pullback;
From Washington’s perspective, everything happening in the volatile Iran-Iraq-Syria-Turkey spectrum is subject to two imperatives:

1) geopolitically, breaking what is regionally regarded as the axis of resistance: Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah; and

2) geostrategically, breaking the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative from being incorporated in both Iraq and Syria, not to mention Turkey.

When Erdogan remarked that the trilateral Ankara summit last month was “productive,” he was essentially saying that the Kurdish question was settled by an agreement among Russia, Turkey and Iran.
-
What’s happening is a quadruple win.

The US performs a face saving withdrawal, which Trump can sell as avoiding a conflict with NATO alley Turkey.

Turkey has the guarantee – by the Russians – that the Syrian Army will be in control of the Turkish-Syrian border.

Russia prevents a war escalation and keeps the Russia-Iran-Turkey peace process alive.

And Syria will eventually regain control of its oilfields and the entire northeast.
-
On the Iraq unrest;
But most of all, Abbas stressed: “Many people I talked to in Karbala think this is the American response to the Iraqi tilt towards China.”

That totally fits with this comprehensive analysis.

Iraq did not follow the – illegal – Trump administration sanctions on Iran. In fact it continues to buy electricity from Iran. Baghdad finally opened the crucial Iraq-Syria border post of al-Qaem. Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi wants to buy S-400 missile systems from Russia.

He also explicitly declared Israel responsible for the bombing of five warehouses belonging to the Hashd al-Shaabi, the people mobilization units. And he not only rejected the Trump administration’s “deal of the century” between Israel and Palestine but also has been trying to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

https://southfront.org/putins-visits-to-uae-and-saudi-arabia-and-shift-of-balance-of-power-in-middle-east/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-air-force-intercepts-turkish-f-16-in-northern-syria-media/ and https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-aircraft-threaten-turkish-backed-fighters-who-came-very-close-to-american-troops-in-syria/
(DJ-For the moment US and Russia united against Turkey https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/15-october-senior-us-defense-official-says-turkeys-incursion goes further than agreed with US.

https://www.debka.com/mivzak/russian-su-35-jets-reportedly-thwart-turkish-air-strike-in-manbij/
DJ-Both Russia (and Iran, China) and the US try to get a grip on Turkey.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/what-is-more-important-to-putin-saudi-or-iran/ DJ Some people in the US simply do not understand Putin wants/needs both. Russia and China are working together-first to get a grip on EurAsia then to become the "new boss" replacing a bankrupt US. (Some US journalists are blind/live in a tunnelvision. US (and EU) politicians seem to live there as well-out of touch with a high speed changing reality that puts the US on the sidelines.)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 16 2019 at 6:03am
DJ-Without World War 1 the Spanish Flu would not have been able to kill between 2 to 5% of the world population between 1917 and 1923.

https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-07-26/measles-flu-more-turkish-parents-are-saying-no-vaccines;
Last year, measles cases increased eight-fold in Turkey with 716 reported cases in 2018, according to the World Health Organization. As of July 10, the number of confirmed cases for 2019 spiked to 1,468, according to monthly data reported by the Turkish government.

According to https://www.unhcr.org/tr/en/refugees-and-asylum-seekers-in-turkey;Turkey continues to host the largest number of refugees worldwide, as the number of people forcibly displaced across the world due to conflict, violence and persecution hit record levels. Turkey currently hosts over 3.6 million registered Syrian refugees along with over 365,000 persons of concern from other nationalities.

DJ-Deportation of (over) 2 million refugees to a small stretch south of the Turkish border in war-torn NE Syria will not improve a present health crisis. Coming flu-season can become problematic.

https://southfront.org/turkish-forces-push-towards-m4-highway-in-area-between-tell-abyad-and-ras-al-ayn-map-update/

https://southfront.org/sdf-damascus-deal-first-details-revealed/
(DJ-Those details are on wich positions the SAA will take over from the SDF. In other news-unconfirmed-there is mention of Kurdish people going into Syrian government posts.)

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201910161077058383-live-updates-turkeys-offensive-in-northern-syria-enters-its-second-week/, https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/16-october-russians-crossing-into-eastern-euphrates-from (DJ-The US did give up positions on the Manbij-Kobani road so the SAA may move to Kobani.)

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/16-october-adviser-to-assad-turkish-aggression-on-the-sovereignty DJ-When both Syria and Iraq consider Turkish moves as stealing part of their country we may expect further escalation/increase of Russian pressure to get Turkey under control.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/stunning-turkey-defense-minister-declares-their-intent-a-turkish-united-states and http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/photo-turkish-president-erdogan-visits-baku-for-liberation-anniversary-136893
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2019 at 3:19am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan-Turkism
DJ-Some Turks believe in restoration of some form of a Turkish (Ottoman) Empire. In my opinion Turkey has not the strenght to do much-they are involved in Qatar, Libya-are fighting in Syria, Iraq. Turkey is in conflict with Greece and Cypres on a gas field in the mediterranean.
Turkey needs investors from China, Russian tourism, Iran oil/gas-they can not move into conflict with all of its neighbours.

https://www.debka.com/despite-erdogans-bravado-his-syrian-offensive-is-squeezed-in-a-us-russian-hug/
DJ-Russia and the US do not want Turkey-as a NATO member being pulled into a war with Syria. (If the US wants war with Iran Turkey may be usefull-but such a war would be very difficult to control and destroy western economies.)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/the-win-win-win-win-plan-for-syrias-northeast-succeeds.html
Syria getting control over all of Syria, return of refugees from Turkey, Iran, Russia, China getting more links to the EU-but is that okay for the US ?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/syrian-debacle-actually-well-planned-chaos
DJ-Since 2001 the US strategy seems to be to create chaos in the Middle East. IS is a US creation to stop Russia, Iran, China. That goal is still there. I (DJ) doubt if the US is still in a position to keep creating more chaos. Even Saudi Arabia, UAE, and even Israel seems to be moving away from the US.

https://southfront.org/us-considering-ways-to-remove-b61-nuclear-bombs-from-incirlik-air-base-turkey-us-media/
DJ-The US may have to go for damage control. That means pulling back US military from Iraq, Afganistan and Al Tanf-south Syria-may even have to accept being forced out of Turkey.

The US started creating chaos in Afghanistan in the 70's "to give the Soviet Union their own Viet Nam". The Soviet Union pulled out of Afghanistan in 1989. NATO/US is in Afghanistan since 2001-as a result of the chaos they created in the seventies-and they are losing that war.

After using Saddam Hussein against Iran after the 79 Iran islamic revolution the US dumped Saddam Hussein and murdered him after the invasion of 2003. In Libya the same recepy-killing Gadaffi and replacing it by (planned) chaos (and western grab of oil/gas).

That strategy helped the investors in the Military Industrial Complex but destroyed the US (no investments in infra structure, education, healthcare).

The Middle East problem is made in the U.S.A. and they have had more than enough of it. Russia, Iran, China have had enough of "sanctions and insults" from he US. The end result is that "the best deal with the US is no deal at all".

With the EU being sanctioned by the US, trying to force the EU to buy US-LNG, US weapons "or else"-and a US made refugee crisis also the EU is moving away from the US (brexit=UK staying a US ally).

(Again) The outcome so far is the US losing ground in Asia-China becoming the new "super power".

We are not out of the conflict zone yet but the US ability to stop China is decreasing fast.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2019 at 11:44am
https://www.rt.com/news/471165-us-turkey-syria-ceasefire-kurds/
Turkey has agreed to temporarily halt its military operation against Syria’s Kurdish-led militias, allowing them to withdraw from the country’s border, US Vice President Mike Pence said during a visit to Ankara.
“Today the United States and Turkey have agreed to a ceasefire in Syria,” Pence said during a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

The ceasefire between the Turkish military backed by affiliated militants and the Kurdish-led fighters is set to last 120 hours, according to Pence. This time will be spent on the withdrawal of the Kurdish forces from the 20-mile strip along the Syrian border, where Turkey wants to set up a “safe zone.”

Brett McGurk: The US just ratified Turkey's plan to effectively extend its border 30km into Syria with no ability to meaningfully influence facts on the ground. Turkey says it's the entire border from the Euphrates to Iraq (450x30km) to be controlled by its military forces. Non-implementable
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/17-october-brett-mcgurk-the-us-just-ratified-turkeys-plan
DJ-When Syria is moving to the Turkish border the US think they can give a 20 miles deep-300 miles wide stretch to Turkey and https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/turkish-army-cutting-off-heads-of-kurds

DJ-"Are you mad "???? (This is an act of US insanity-unacceptable for the Kurds, Russia, Syria, Iran but the US and Turkey are "friends again").

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/syrias-kurds-and-turkey-accuse-each-other-using-chemical-weapons

DJ-A few days ago "moderate western backed terrorists" moved from Idlib NW Syria-via Turkey-to NE Syria to fight the Kurds. Some of those "rebels" did use chemical weapons in East Goutha-Damascus-for wich the west blamed Assad. There have been no reports of Kurds using chemical weapons. (But since the US is dumping the "more dangerous than IS kurds" western media propaganda may go wild again-"bad Putin, bad Assad " blah-blah).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2019 at 11:25pm
DJ-First reactions from the Kurds on the https://www.veteranstoday.com/2019/10/17/intel-drop-erdogan-and-pence-agree-to-fake-cease-fire-with-nobody-who-do-they-think-theyre-foolin/ seems to be welcoming an end-for 120 hrs-of fighting (pro-Turkish proxies, IS, AQ etc) but nobody is thinking of giving up any cm of land to the Turks.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/17-october-us-senator-martin-heinrich-under-this-socalled;
U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich: Under this so-called ceasefire, Kurdish forces and their families face the impossible choice of fleeing their homes or being ethnically cleansed. Because of Turkey's actions we should seriously reconsider its role in NATO and any future military weapons sales.

DJ-Erdogan and Pence agreed that Syria has to give up a stretch of fertile lands larger than Lebanon to Turkey-without talks to Kurds, Syria or anybody else.

https://www.debka.com/us-and-turkey-agree-on-syria-ceasefire-but-the-ball-is-still-in-the-moscow-damascus-court/ Erdogan and Putin will soon meet. Russia wants Syria to stay intact.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/kurdish-forces-block-syrian-army-russian-military-from-entering-raqqa-video/ and https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-october-17-2019-syrian-army-entering-kobani-and-raqqa/
DJ-There could be some indications that the SDF is not as united as some think. SAA moving into the oilfields in East (Arab) Syria under Kurdish occupation (and a major source of income) will be a major test.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-military-unlikely-withdraw-syrias-key-oil-fields-report

DJ-I do not think the "cease fire" will work. https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/17-october-syrian-observatory-turkish-forces-completely-encircle Syrian Observatory: Turkish forces completely encircle the city of Ras al-Ain DJ-The Kurds and Syria do want to end the siege of Ras al-Ain, get control of all of the M4 motorway-and get the Turks and "allies" out as soon as possible.

DJ-Another issue is the movements of (pro)Iran forces from Iraq into East Syria. There may be still some US forces in their way. The US may find it harder to provide air-cover in time. The Kurds are no longer "friends"of the US https://southfront.org/trump-calls-pkk-bigger-threat-than-isis-as-senate-attempts-to-block-troops-withdrawal-from-syria/

(DJ-During the cold war the Soviet Union was an ally of the (communist) PKK. NATO did fight the Kurds were they could. )
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2019 at 2:52am
DJ-A touch of realism https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/media-and-pundits-misread-the-everyone-wins-plan-for-syria.html;
The U.S. can not "allow Turkey to annex a portion of Syria". The U.S. does not own Syria. It is completely bollocks to think that it has the power to allow Turkey to annex parts of it.

Turkey will not "gain territory". There will be no Turkish "security corridor". The Kurdish civilians in Kobani, Ras al Ain and Qamishli areas will not go anywhere. The Turks will not touch those Kurdish majority areas because they are, or soon will be, under control of the Syrian government and its army.
-
These moves have been planed all along. The Turkish invasion in northeast Syria was designed to give Trump a reason to withdraw U.S. troops. It was designed to push the Kurdish forces to finally submit to the Syrian government. Behind the scene Russia had already organized the replacement of the Kurdish forces with Syrian government troops. It has coordinated the Syrian army moves with the U.S. military. Turkey had agreed that Syrian government control would be sufficient to alleviate its concern about a Kurdish guerilla and a Kurdish proto-state at its border. Any further Turkish invasion of Syria is thereby unnecessary.

The plan has everyone winning. Turkey will be free of a Kurdish threat. Syria regains its territory. The U.S. can leave without further trouble. Russia and Iran gain standing. The Kurds get taken care of.

The 'ceasefire' and the retreat of the armed Kurdish groups from the border, which is claimed to have been negotiated yesterday between Pence and Erdogan, had already been decided on before the U.S. announced its withdrawal from Syria.
-
I am confident for now that the blob will be held off by Trump and that the Win4 plan will succeed. Erdogan will soon travel to Russia to discuss the next steps towards peace in Syria. The talks will be about a common plan to liberated the Jihadi controlled governorate of Idleb. That step may require a summit between the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Erdogan which Russia and Iran will help to facilitate.

With the U.S. removed from the Syria file such steps towards peace will now be much easier.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-turkey-agree-to-fragile-ceasefire-in-northern-syria/, https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/18-october-shelling-in-ras-alain-continues-despite-a-declaredpause.

https://southfront.org/satellite-images-turkey-setting-up-military-posts-in-captured-part-of-northeastern-syria/
DJ-Turkey will have to give up all occupied parts of Syria but wants something in return for that.

Talks between Turkey, Russia and Iran, Syria will make two things clear;
-The Turkish price for leaving Syria
-The US has lost any respect in the Middle East
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 19 2019 at 2:43am
DJ-https://theduran.com/putins-syria-master-class-signals-end-of-regime-change-wars-video/ The Duran describing the Syria-war with the "west" (US/EU) on the side of regime change-against Assad-even if that meant supporting IS/AQ etc. Western "media" only blaming Assad for war crimes while closing their eyes for even worse insanity by western backed "moderate rebels" with AQ links.

The Russian intervention prevented in 2015 Damascus being taken over by salafast/wahabist extremists. Russia intervened because they did not want a major terrorist base close to southern Russia.

The failed coup attempt against Erdogan-by the US-pushed Turkey towards Russia. (DJ-The faillure of the EU to create a working base for Turkish EU-membership also pushed Turkey away from "the west"-the US wanted the EU to do more.)

During the Obama administration the US had no realistic diplomacy, went after regime change in Syria, Libya. While the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan went on.

Trump may be able to act in a diplomatic way-the US politics has gone mad-with some "politicians" doing everything they can to destroy Trump-even if this would start a major conflict.

At the end it is Putin who (helped by the US chaos) is able to talk to all sides.

https://www.rt.com/news/471260-trump-secured-the-oil-syria/
DJ-Is Trump thinking of leaving some US forces "protecting oil fields" in East Syria ? How does Trump think this will work ? Those forces will soon be isolated by Syria,Iran/Iraq, Russia (SIR). They will not tolerate a new -again US made-IS in that area.

On october 22 Putin will meet Erdogan in Sochi. Most likely the outcome will be that Turkey hands over the border area under Turkish control to Russia and Syria (under some conditions).

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-october-18-2019-assad-troops-deploy-on-border-amid-120-hour-ceasefire/, https://syria.liveuamap.com/ Russia, Syria preparing for a major offensive against Idlib.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 19 2019 at 11:15pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-syria-may-be-biggest-defeat-cia-vietnam

DJ-https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/french-special-forces-need-russias-help-to-withdraw-troops-in-northeast-syria/ When France and Germany join the (Russian-Iran-Turkey) Astana peaceproces and French military work with Russians in Syria it becomes clear how much the world did change due to "regime change wars" started by the US.

https://southfront.org/turkish-funded-syrian-national-army-and-myth-of-united-syrian-opposition/ DJ-Syrian "opposition" is most paid by foreign "partners"-this is not a "civil war".

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/19-october-the-top-kurdish-commander-in-syria-general-mazlum;Kobane told @NBCNews he is trying to pull his forces back from Ras al-Ayn, but Turkey is not allowing it. He alleges Turkey does not want Kurdish fighters to withdraw - a condition of the ceasefire - but to kill them
(DJ-The war in Turkey against the Kurds was with NATO help and also sometimes came close to genocide.)
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/19-october-turkish-army-lifted-the-border-wall-across-the DJ-Turkey preparing for another point for invasion east of the earlier points (and into Syrian Arab land-not Kurdish, but SDF controlled).

DJ-Oct22 Putin and Erdogan will meet. At the end Russia wants Turkey out of Syria-without a Syria-Turkey war. So far Turkey is not stopping its war against the Kurds. There is a risk of SAA-Turkish confrontation.

https://www.debka.com/popular-protests-target-lebanons-political-system-for-the-first-time-is-it-a-revolution/
DJ-Just like the Iraq-unrest the unrest in Lebanon is related to the war in Syria.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/china-makes-move-opecs-no2;
Following a political backlash over details of its plans to make Iran effectively a client state through various multi-layered oil and gas deals, China has switched its attention – for the time being at least – to Iran’s equally oil and gas-rich neighbor, Iraq. China has the advantage in Iraq that the northern part of the country – the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan – is already under the control of its increasingly close ally, Russia, with its corporate proxy Rosneft having secured control over Kurdistan’s oil and gas infrastructure in a deal in November 2017.

DJ-The main reason Russia-Iran-China can be succesfull in the Middle East is https://www.rt.com/news/471339-israel-obligation-to-bomb-pompeo/;Israel should not be constrained by international borders or laws if it feels under threat, and can always rely on US support, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said following his meeting with the Israeli PM and the chief of Mossad.

DJ-As long as the US treats Israel as a US bridgehead into oil-country relations with the Arab/M.E. world can not get balanced. Israel does not get room to "bomb were it likes" by Russia.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2019 at 8:22pm
https://southfront.org/turkey-threatens-damascus-government-with-declaration-of-full-scale-war/,
https://www.debka.com/russian-forces-take-over-americas-n-syria-bases-e-syrian-airspace-and-concern-for-kurds/,
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-troops-escort-us-military-out-of-northern-aleppo-video/

DJ-Today Erdogan will meet Putin in Sochi-Russia. The "cease-fire" the US arranged with Turkey ends today-eventhough it did not stop the fighting.

Syria and Russia seem to be preparing for "military action" to stop Turkey in Syria. https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/21-october-the-sdf-and-saa-are-continually-repulsing-attacks, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/erdogan-pledges-to-take-necessary-actions-in-syria-after-putin-meeting/,
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-surrounds-turkish-military-near-border-town/,
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-receives-massive-tank-shipment-from-russia-ahead-of-new-offensive-satellite-photo/

DJ-Even if Turkey does not restart its offensive in NE Syria, Syria wants to regain control of all of Syria. A Syrian offensive in Idlib may be days/hours away.
Putin will try to convince Erdogan to pull Turkish forces out of Syria. My guess is Turkey will listen even when it may take some time. (The alternative would be Turkey getting isolated. Erdogan can not trust the US/EU, Iran is on the side of Syria. A Turkish war against Syria would be also a war against Iraq, Iran, Russia-Turkey will try to prevent that.)

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-armed-forces-will-not-withdraw-from-syrian-oil-fields-report/
DJ-The US want to control Syria from Iraq, Al Tanf in south Syria-but the Kurds may not want to work with the US, Iraq is not waiting for being a base for US military action in Syria. The US may restart IS to "fight against" but in that scenario both Syria and Iraq may ask Russia and Iran to deal with that (and in such a scenario-when everyone knows IS=US there will be no room left for the US in the region).

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/we-have-hours-left-turkish-ceasefire-edge-collapse-erdogan-gives-kurds-hours-flee-territory,
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/betrayal-and-deception-syria-prime-example-us-foreign-policy
R-E-S-P-E-C-T is what is missing in US foreign policy. From sanctions on EU allies, South Korea to using and dumping of the Kurds-when the outcome of the US pull back from Syria is that the EU will face another refugee crisis due to US madness, Turkey starts a war with Syria-we may see the end of NATO.

https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13599&start=30,
https://www.rt.com/news/471472-pompeo-turkey-military-action-ready/ (DJ-There seems to be still a number of US military in NE Syria (backed by IS ? The Kurds are against them, even the French talk with the Russians about their special forces in the region. The US "allowed"Turkey a smaller operation than Turkey may be planning.)
https://www.debka.com/mivzak/putin-phones-netanyahu-with-birthday-greetings-they-discuss-changes-in-syria/ but also https://www.debka.com/gantz-in-line-to-form-a-government-after-netanyahu-returns-the-premiership-mandate-to-the-president/ Gantz may be PM of Israel.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2019 at 11:36am
https://sputniknews.com/world/201910221077116176-key-highlights-from-putin-erdogan-talks-as-they-discuss-situation-in-syria/:

1-Joint Patrols in Syria
The two presidents have reached an agreement that the Turkish military operation in Syria will be limited to a distance of within 30 kilometres from the Turkish-Syrian border. Moscow will send military police, while Damascus will send border guards in order to ensure the removal of YPG forces and their weapons up to a "depth of 30 kilometres away from the border". The operation needs to be completed within a timeframe of 150 hours. After YPG forces are removed, Turkey and Russia will organise joint patrols to the east and west of Ankara’s military operation, covering a 10-kilometre wide zone, with the exception of Qamishli city.

2-Peace Spring Operation Ends
Following the end of the talks between the two presidents, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the signed memorandum will ensure the end of the bloodshed in Syria, arguing that it is an important step towards a Syrian peace settlement.

At the same time, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated in the wake of the Sochi meeting that the US, which is currently withdrawing its troops from northern Syria according to its agreements with Turkey, has to fulfil all of its obligations in Syria within 1 hour and 31 minutes. Shoigu added that Erdogan and Putin didn't discuss how long the Turkish forces will stay in the zone comprising Operation Peace Spring in Syria.

3-Return of War Refugees
Erdogan and Putin also addressed the humanitarian aspect of the situation in Syria, with the Russian president saying that the sides have agreed that the return of Syrian refuges should be facilitated as this would lift the burden from the countries that received them in the first place. The memorandum of the two countries stressed that the return of refugees must be conducted in a safe and voluntary manner.

https://www.rt.com/news/471529-putin-erdogan-sochi-talks/

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/syrias-fate-decided-sochi-putin-erdogan-meet-hours-syria-ceasefire-ends

DJ-There remain several obstacles;

Afrin, Idlib, East Syria oil fields and Al Tanf-the last two are US occupied.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2019 at 10:39pm
DJ-Why is the Erdogan-Putin agreement important ?

1-It is one step closer to ending the "civil" war in/for Syria.
2-It gives Assad room to start the Idlib offensive.
3-It underlines that Russia (the Astana group with Turkey and Iran) can decide in this region. (And the US can not).
4-With peace-in some form-in NE Syria the China new-silk-road can go further.

Why is the Syria war something for AFT-forum ? Major pandemics are related to major wars. Refugees, poor/no hygiene, crowds of people-sometimes with bio-warfare-increase the risk of pandemics.

Countries like Syria, Iraq, Libya did have some form of public healthcare under their dictators. Western intervention destroyed the healthcare and replaced the dictators by worse dictators.

For Syria;
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/four-american-policy-failure-syria

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-and-russian-military-police-to-deploy-on-border-putin-and-erdogan-reach-agreement-on-northeastern-syria/,
https://www.debka.com/putin-obliges-erdogan-to-call-off-turkeys-operation-against-the-kurds-in-ne-syria/

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-completes-deployment-along-aleppo-hasakah-highway-east-of-euphrates-photos/
DJ-Turkey will have to pull back its forces from NE Syria and than can patrol-with Russia-in the area held by the S.A.A. (Assad forces).

https://southfront.org/us-troops-remain-in-syria-to-protect-oil-fields-from-terrorists-war-report/
DJ-I do not see how the US can keep forces in that area when there is no connection with Jordan. Iraq and Turkey do not support thes (illegal presence) US forces. They will have to give up their positions at a certain moment.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-armys-idlib-offensive-to-begin-at-any-moment/ DJ-With Russian help-sending Turkey a very clear message. Turkey will have to work within the Astana agreement and disarm radical groups in Idlib or face Russia/Syria doing so.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/22-october-iraq-all-us-forces-that-withdrew-from-syria-receivedapproval to enter the Kurdistan Region so that they may be transported outside Iraq. There is no permission granted for these forces to stay inside Iraq."

DJ-The Kurds agreed to the US plan for pull back from the Turkish border. They placed themselves under Assad protection. Basicly they made a mess of their policies. On the longer term Kurds may find a way to unite in a cultural way over borders. It is the largest nation without their own state-and that is sad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2019 at 11:12pm
Some sidelines by Syria;

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/when-trump-ignored-bad-advice-he-enabled-progress-in-syria.html and https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/trump-disrupts-millions-in-illegal-drug-trafficking-cash-kickbacks-from-syria

(DJ-https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva saw during the Viet Nam war the US protecting opium-trade, the French did that before the US moved in. In the sixties with MLK, student demonstrations drugs was a way to control crowd and break protest.)

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/23-october-russian-deputy-foreign-minister-the-russianturkishagreement followed an understanding reached in a secret communication between Russia, Damascus and the Kurds
(DJ-In 1998 there was the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria%E2%80%93Turkey_relations Adana-agreement. Syria would stop supporting the Kurds in Syria. Disagreement on how Syria did do its job was one of the reasons for Turkey's support for regimechange. https://www.rt.com/news/471587-turkey-no-need-restart-offensive-kurds/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-demands-syrian-govt-gets-back-all-its-oil-fields/, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-demands-us-end-its-occupation-of-al-tanf-in-southern-syria/

Russia and Turkey now control the Turkish border. Iraq tells the U.S. NATO forces from Syria have to leave Iraq in 4 weeks. Idlib-offensive is on its way-in combination with S.A.A. moving into Raqqa/oil fields.

The US has 200 military, 400 PMC's in the oil fields wich will be surrounded soon by Syrian troops. (With Russian observers and possibly pro-Iran forces, Russian air control ? )
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 24 2019 at 11:32pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-playing-4-d-chess-game-middle-east-no-one-understands,
https://southfront.org/u-s-to-send-troops-battle-tanks-to-secure-syrian-oil-fields-report/

https://www.debka.com/trump-pivots-on-n-syria-some-us-troops-to-stay-one-air-base-retained/

DJ-The US want to keep troops in Syria-not far from the borders of Iraq and Jordan (Al Tanf). Iraq may not be happy with this-it will stimulate further protest against US (illegal since the 2003 war was against international law) presence.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-scores-advance-in-ne-latakia-amid-new-push-towards-jisr-al-shughour/, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-tanks-head-to-battlefield-to-confront-militants-at-turkish-border/

DJ-Since there are Turkish backed fighters in Idlib the confrontation between Turkey and the Syrian Arab Army (within the SAA SDF will become part of the SAA) is far from over. Russia and Iran will need to put more pressure on Turkey to stop its "support for terrorists".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2019 at 12:12am
DJ-Still the SDF/Kurds do not get realistic: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/syria-the-kurds-want-to-play-on-both-sides.html;
SDF in last 24 hour:
Want SAA to defend border
No withdrawing of their mercenaries
Refuse Russian offer
Ask Russia to pressure Syrian gov
Want "special section" in SAA
Want US illegal presence in Syria
Want international forces

SDF, Are you high?

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-october-25-2019-russia-deploys-more-personnel-equipment-in-syria/,
https://southfront.org/how-russian-turkish-safe-zone-deal-shapes-course-of-syrian-conflict/

DJ-Israel wants Iran out of Syria and is using the Kurds to get that done.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/u-s-lands-f-22-stealth-and-b1-b-strategic-bombers-in-saudi-arabia
DJ-The US wants to satisfy Israel by keeping US forces in South and East Syria (with Kurdish forces in the Arab oil region. Putting US forces in Saudi Arabia the US would have to move over/via Iraq or Jordan to get to Syria.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-attacks-isis-gathering-in-eastern-syria-several-terrorists-killed/

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/united-states-turkey-sdf-internal-war-between-syrias-enemies;
The SDF masters in Washington understand well that without a force on the land controlled by them, they could not prevent Assad from reuniting the country and taking over the a commercial, economic and energy connection project between Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran, with the Beijing Economic blessing that intends to invest / grant lines of credit of more than 600 billion dollars between Iran, Syria and Iraq.

The only legitimate authority in Syria that is able to guarantee the safety of civilians from the depredations of Daesh, the FSA, al-Nusra, al-Qaeda and all the other 256 iterations of jihadists (none of whom is “moderate”) is the Syrian Arab Army and its central government in Damascus.

Turkey, the SDF and the United States are three irregular, illegal and illegitimate occupants of Syrian soil who are fighting in the midst of thousands of civilians and are causing death and destruction that could easily be avoided.

The international political and media reaction to events happening in Syria confirms in my mind that there is an internal wrangle between the United States, Turkey and the SDF stemming from their defeat at the hands of the Syrian Arab Army and allies; a win for civilization.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/can-us-beat-china-trade-war DJ-Basics-the war in Syria is meant to stop China.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-b-52-simulates-bombing-run-near-russias-kaliningrad-reports/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 27 2019 at 12:32am
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/abu-dua-captured-by-us-sof-that-s-the-leader-of-isis-aka-al-baghdadi, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-special-forces-carried-out-trump-approved-raid-to-kill-baghdadi/, https://www.debka.com/isis-leader-baghdadi-reported-killed-in-us-operation-in-syria/
DJ-Just like Osama bin Laden was in Pakistan-long time US ally, Baghdadi was in Turkish/western backed rebels controled area near the Turkish border in Idlib NW Syria.

Both AQ and IS are believed to be creations of the CIA.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-could-attack-israel-from-nearly-all-sides-israeli-general/, https://southfront.org/can-iran-to-fend-off-us-israeli-missile-or-drone-attack/

DJ-Besides from stealing Syrian oil https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/u-s-stealing-30-million-per-month-in-syrian-oil-tax-free-cash-to-swiss-bank-accounts the US wants to control eastern Syria to stop Iran (and China) from getting a connection to the mediterranean.

Unrest in https://www.debka.com/mivzak/eight-protesters-killed-in-iraq-by-live-shots-and-tear-gas-fired-by-police/ and https://www.debka.com/mivzak/nasrallah-warns-lebanons-nationwide-protest-could-lead-to-civil-war/ is also serving this US-Saudi-Israeli goal.

The build-up of US forces (for war against Iran) goes on https://www.debka.com/mivzak/us-deploys-stealth-f-22-raptors-at-saudi-prince-sultan-air-base/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-confirms-troops-returned-to-syria-from-iraq/, https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/heres-why-trumps-secure-syrias-oil-plan-will-be-impossible-implement
DJ-There is no legal bases for US forces occupy oil fields in an other country.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/27-october-the-site-targeted-by-the-us-military-operation
DJ-Again, how come IS-leader Baghdadi was in western backed "moderate rebels" area near the Turkish border ?

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/26-october-reports-of-clashes-between-proassad-forces-andTurkish-backed forces in Ras al-Ain countryside

DJ-The Turkish backed "rebels" may be hard to control for Turkey. Also some Kurds will not stop fighting against Turkey and its proxies. Both Syria and Russia will try to control the fighting.

DJ-One could argue that "there is a battle for Asia" between the US and China. In that battle the US may be losing India https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-us-officially-suspend-defense-cooperation (India can do bussiness with Russia while the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will connect China, via Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Turkey with the EU.)
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