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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

80% mild

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 16 2020 at 11:25am

A common figure going around is that 80% of people who get Covid19 have a mild case.   This is used a lot in arguments about the need to open up and the 20% severe cases seems to be an acceptable social cost.

   

The next question that I have is what happens in the second and subsequent waves?   If immunity wears off after just a few weeks, of if the virus has mutated like the common cold, then the 80% who had it mild face infection again.

By the third wave (third year ?), if the 80% rule still holds true, then half the population would have either died or have serious health issues.  [Strictly 80% x 80% x 80% = 51.2% would still be only "mildly" affected].

It might not be quiet as bad as the above, because in any epidemic it is unlikely that everyone would beome infected.  But it does show the magnitude of the problem if immunity is not achieved.  If one uses a rate of 70% infected then 30% of the population not be affected and 56% would have a mild case, equaling 86%. Using this higher rate of "OK people" it means after three waves over 1/3rd (~36%) of the population would have had a severe case (or died).


To avoid these huge figures for serious cases, society has to make sure that the infection rate is kept very low at least until we know if long term immunity is given to recovered patients.  

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 16 2020 at 5:36pm







101% AGREED.......

We don't know enough yet...

pity the poorer Nations.......


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 12:16am

This is all a crap shoot but people have to make a living.  The world will just have to deal with the crap China caused.  I bet most of the people on this forum are retired, work from home, or are on a farm.  Many of us do not have to work Outside the home to pay the rent/mortgage, utilities, car and food.

We can stay home and still survive.  Dr. CRS on this forum told us 80% was mild along with most other experts so that is what most believe.  We have to get back to work those who do not want to go back to work stay home.

This is not brain surgery!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 4:20am

Food has to be grown and harvested, utilities must be maintained and domestic services (police, fire ambulance) must continue.  There is no argument on that.

But if a person starves bercause their, pub, resturant, hairdresser's or massage parlour must remain shut to stop infection spread, then that is a failure of the administration in charge.  

Our current government is a right-wing one - which we needed.  But they are behaving AT THIS PRECISE MOMENT like a socialist one, also because that is what is needed to fight the virus.  

Ideology should not be an excuse for letting people die, either from the virus or the econnomic repuircussions of it.  That is unforgivable.

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 4:22am

This situation is far more complicated than one might think.  I think the current mortality rate of this is a factor.  And although I agree that people have to work, I disagree that people have to work during this crisis.   As I posted in another thread the Fed "loans" trillions to banks every single day.  The money is there to supplement and enable people to stay home during this crisis.  It's just being handed to corporations. I find it remarkable how people scream cry and rage over "the welfare state" but not see the corporate welfare that happens every single damn day.  It's something people need to wake up to.  

I'm not a big supporter of the progressive economic stance, but there is something that can be said supporting some of the platforms for economic reform.  But in this case, I think it's time to give trickle up a try.  Because heaven knows trickle down hasn't worked.  Ayn Rand's very one-dimensional philosophy has been a disaster for the U.S.  The deep state isn't in government.  It's the corporations that control government.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 5:05am




The government should be supporting and PROTECTING the people,first and foremost, the economy comes second, 

People before $$$$$

It took the UK near 70 years to pay for WW2

THIS WAR HAS ONLY JUST STARTED.....




Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AandEM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2020 at 9:13pm

The cost of medical care for that high number of infected, minus a cheaper, effective treatment, would likely swamp the economic recovery. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 25 2020 at 7:45am

I am amazed at the poor understanding of economics displayed on this forum.   Yes the government can borrow/print money.    A very large amount even.   However if it isn't backed up by productivity it is worthless.   Having more and more money chasing after fewer and fewer goods is a recipe for disaster.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Flubergasted Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 25 2020 at 8:57am

If too many people get sick, there won't be any productivity.  It's a balancing act.  Until we are protecting everyone's health, our productivity will suffer.  People are our most valuable resource., and health IS wealth. 

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AandEM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 25 2020 at 9:34am

Exactly, if even 20% of the population were to need medical intervention over the course of the entire pandemic, not only loss in revenue from sick workers, but that's $640,000,000,000 if each case averages just 10k in medical costs. Mitigating strategies will always be cost effective. 

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