Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)


Forum Home Forum Home > General Discussion > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Coronavirus: RoM
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Wuhan Coronavirus COVID-19

Coronavirus: RoM

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  123 6>
Author
Message
Kilt5 View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: March 29 2017
Status: Offline
Points: 4065
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Coronavirus: RoM
    Posted: January 28 2020 at 1:41am
Rate of Mortality

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

China only

Cases      4,527     

Deaths 106

RoM 2.341%

These number will change over time
Back to Top
Kilt5 View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: March 29 2017
Status: Offline
Points: 4065
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2020 at 11:34pm
cases 6,016     

deaths 132

RoM 2.1
Back to Top
Kilt5 View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: March 29 2017
Status: Offline
Points: 4065
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 2:39am
There are currently 6,147 confirmed cases worldwide, including 132 fatalities.
Back to Top
Kilt5 View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: March 29 2017
Status: Offline
Points: 4065
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 11:46pm
There are currently 7,847 confirmed cases worldwide, including 170 fatalities.

RoM 2.1%

That RoM is holding true
Back to Top
AlexSun View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: January 29 2020
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 175
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 12:19am
8:08 first case in India!
Back to Top
Kilt5 View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: March 29 2017
Status: Offline
Points: 4065
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:02pm
There are currently 7,935 confirmed cases worldwide, including 170 fatalities.

still 2.1%
Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Status: Online
Points: 18795
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:17pm
Thanks, Kilt! The correct term to use is CFR = "Case Fatality Ratio."   We also say "Case Fatality Rate."   

For comparison: The CFR for rabies is essentially 100%; for smallpox, about 50%; for Ebola in the ongoing epidemic in West Africa, about 50%.   Influenza CFR during a typical outbreak is only 1% or less.

Coronas are not very efficient killers.
CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
AlexSun View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: January 29 2020
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 175
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:26pm
Actually 8262 cases and 171 death right now

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 66480
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 2:07pm
I still maintain my earlier point. The CFR figures are distorted by the huge length of time between infection and death.

I don't know what they will be. Let me stress that again. I DONT KNOW WHAT THEY WILL BE. I do know they are distorted by the length of time spent dying.

There are other hidden factors too. There may still be huge numbers undiagnosed which will substantially lower the figure, but there may also be deaths unlinked in the statistics, or as yet unndiscovered, which will raise the figure.

The current distortedCFR is however convenient for avoiding panic, so no one will argue with that publically yet - not untill the outbreak is over.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
Back to Top
AlexSun View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: January 29 2020
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 175
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 2:51pm
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 66480
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:27pm
Wow! So many cases, such a huge spread! I wonder how soon we will lose track of it.

Thanks Alex!
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
Back to Top
Kilt5 View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: March 29 2017
Status: Offline
Points: 4065
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:03am
There are currently 9,927 confirmed cases worldwide, including 213 fatalities.

still 2.1%
Back to Top
AlexSun View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: January 29 2020
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 175
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:16am
According to bnonews.com we have around 1527 serious and 348 critical cases. Do we have a number guy who can make some predictions about them? My thoughts are that those are the real percentage we looking for!

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 66480
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:29am
Sorry, Alex. It's a great question and I would love to calculate that. But my numbers are inaccurate at best, my higher maths AWOL (I can't remember how to do calculus - it's been 45 years since I needed it!) and the information I used to calculate the length of time an average person took to die (which included times and dates of ICU admissions) has changed, the relevant stuff has dissappeard from the site. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jS24DjSPVWa4iuxuD4OAXrE3QeI8c9BC1hSlqr-NMiU/edit#gid=1187587451 It was published from China, so what did I expect!

I am pretty sure of my CFR range, although many would disagree with me, but I can't even hazzard an educated guess at that one.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
Back to Top
AlexSun View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: January 29 2020
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 175
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:39am
Thanks for reply Technophobe, great chart as well! Maybe someone else it'll see this and we'll have an answer!
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 66480
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:56am
Well thank you for the vote of confidence. Sadly, some of the information I used has now DISSAPPEARED from that site. It did have 2 highlighted sections listing the dates of diagnosis, symptom onset, admission to ICU and death for groups of about a dozen people each. Those sections are the bits that have gone.

No, I'm wrong. I just double checked and the figures are still there, it is only the highlighting which has gone. That is pretty good for China, I maligned them unfairly. I notice the cumulative figures have gone but they can be recovered with a bit of work.

NO PROMISES, but if I get a minute I will try over a small section of the figures. I am utterly computer illiterate*, so working out a figure over a large test-pool is beyond me. But I will have a go over a few figures at both the front and current sections of information for comparison and draw a freehand graph (no calculus!) to project.

If you can talk anyone else into this you might get more accurate results!






*The choice of Technophobe as a title is not ironic.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
Back to Top
cobber View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group


Joined: August 13 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 3375
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 6:12am
Kilts the CFR is not based only on recorded numbers alone as it paints a dire picture and scares the $hit out of people. CFR is made up of fatalities, recorded cases, and an estimate on unrecorded cases.

I'm hearing there are lot of unrecorded cases.
Back to Top
KiminNM View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member


Joined: January 22 2020
Location: Santa Fe, NM
Status: Offline
Points: 1515
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 8:08am
Technophobe: I thought the data was gone yesterday also. But click on the line list tab, looks like it's all still there, just moved/hidden a bit.
Back to Top
Kilt5 View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: March 29 2017
Status: Offline
Points: 4065
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:11pm
There are currently 11,948 confirmed cases worldwide, including 259 fatalities.

CFR 2.1%
Back to Top
Kilt5 View Drop Down
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: March 29 2017
Status: Offline
Points: 4065
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:15pm
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

Kilts the CFR is not based only on recorded numbers alone as it paints a dire picture and scares the $hit out of people. CFR is made up of fatalities, recorded cases, and an estimate on unrecorded cases.

I'm hearing there are lot of unrecorded cases.


I look at fatalities divided by 1% of known cases - and as the sample is 11,000 or more the statistics means the numbers are close to reality.

We have no clue about unknown cases - so I work with what we know

and the mortality rate is 2.1% by my calculations
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  123 6>
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down