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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Wuhan Coronavirus COVID-19

The Chinese Death Star

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 13 2020 at 3:08pm
I have said it before and I will say it again:

China had over a Billion people, Billions of Pigs and Billions and Billions of Chickens, Ducks, Geese and other Poultry.

On top of that they have "Wet Markets" where people buy live animals of many many species and they are ankle deep in fresh manure.

This means its a cloud of Viruses mixing with people.

And sooner or later one of these viruses will strike Humanity.

Ebola is a classic example - from Africa - which jumped from Fruit Bats to Humans.

There are Fruit Bats everywhere in Asia and the Asians eat them all the time and they are loaded with Viruses.

The thing about Ebola is that it is not contagious unless the people show symptoms. If it was asymptomatically contagious the world would be in big trouble.

There may yet be such a virus cooking up in Mother Nature ready to strike humanity.

But the worst Virus - Flu.

If this was Pandemic Flu there would be bodies in the streets all around the world and in every Capital City.

The Pandemic Flu is still coming.

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Technophobe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 5:36pm
WHAT WE KNOW, WHAT WE DON'T KNOW AND WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW.

WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW AND WHAT WE DON'T KNOW

At the time of writing this the official number of infected people is 64,291 according to John Hopkins University site https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6. JHU also tell us that 1,489 people have died and 6,982 have recovered. This gives an apparent CFR of (1489 /64291X100) 2.31%. Although it could be far higher.

We also suspect that all of these figures are wrong.

Authorities on epidemiology and virology can't even agree on a R0 for the disease, although somewhere in the region of 3 seems a reasonable estimate. There also seems to be a tendency for the virus to cause only mild illness in the young and horrific long stays in the ICU for older or already sick people.

All of that is speculation. Thanks to China's secrecy, we only have a trickle of vague, probably lied about, ill collated snippets of information I can't dignify with the term data.

That covers what we think we know and what we don't know.

WHAT WE DO KNOW

Diseases with a R0 of more than 1 spread,
No one has ever managed to create a vaccine for a coronavirus before,
Spanish flu had a CFR of 2.5 and an R0 of approximately 2*



Does anyone else see the similarities? Spanish flu killed 50 million people. It preceded modern levels of intercontinental transport and there were only one billion people on the planet then 1/8 of the population today.







*https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article
https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/public-health/100-years-after-spanish-flu-lessons-learned-and-challenges-future
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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pheasant View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2020 at 1:22am
I agree 100% well put!

   here are a few quotes i find ironic:

   "This outbreak is confined to a seafood market in Wuhan"

   "This outbreak is contained to the city of Wuhan and we are taking all necessary steps to contain it"

   "This virus is confined to Hubei province, and we have it under control"

   "This disease is mainly confirmed to mainland china"

   "There have only been a few cases outside of china"

   "There have been no deaths outside china"

   "We only have 2 deaths outside of china"

   This all in in the last 30 days..........

   And I leave you with another folly of mankind:

   
   Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones......(Donald Rumsfeld February 12, 2002)



The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2020 at 3:59am
Hear hear, Phesant!!
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2020 at 11:42am
Thanks, Kilt! I often used your "Chinese Death Star" analogies! They used to be based upon their predatory financial practices, and now we see the Death Star as an engine of humanity-ending viruses!
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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2020 at 12:50am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_China#/media/File:Flag_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China.svg
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