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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Wuhan Coronavirus COVID-19

Hubei-18% CFR estimate; Global 1% CFR estimate.

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    Posted: February 14 2020 at 3:17am
Hubei-18% CFR estimate; Global 1% CFR estimate.


From London Imperial College report 4.

Would it be reasonable to summise that the disparity in % reflects the fact that the health care system in Hubei was swamped ?. This scenario could affect any health care system. The fact that many people become very ill, compared to seasonal flu is obvious.

Seasonal flu CFR, less than 0.1%
COVOD 19 - 1% estimate.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2020 at 4:45am
Reports are that 95% of patients coming to hospitals in China are being turned away.

The Wuflu CFR is approximately 0.3%
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2020 at 8:38am
Wuflu! Yeah!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2020 at 9:18am
I do believe the 0.3% number is coming from number of heath workers who got sick and those who died. Remember that these would be relatively healthy people and relatively young people. (Most 80 year old people are not health care workers.) I think that the number is useful but we need to keep it in context.
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